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A differential differential.

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Beerfuelledman
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A differential differential.

Post by Beerfuelledman »

Its GW38 and Im 23 pts behind (3rd) in a cash minileague that only has prizes for Winner & runner up. I need a differential :lol:
GW38....png
The problem is, whilst I half fancy Shane Long for the CPL match - the amount of Troy Deeneys and Andy Carrolls that have appeared in the last couple weeks suggests that those ahead are (also) gleaning assistance of the masses with their decision making. A differential differential is required... Are hits necessary? Im waiting to be convinced... Its die dog or shite the licence...

Help!! :D
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Ruth_NZ
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Re: A differential differential.

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Having some time spare I have been doing an analysis of your team for what it's worth.

GK - you have Darlow that will play and Mignolet that won't (I imagine). Darlow may get some save points. No point in wasting a transfer there.
D - You have 4 playable defenders - Valencia, Mangala, Gabriel, Cresswell. Nothing needed there.
M - With Sanchez, KDB, Payet, Hazard you have almost the perfect midfield. Iwobi may be benched but that is immaterial.

So that leaves the strikers. Aguero is fine. Deeney has always tended to be good in the springtime and is in form so he's fine. That leaves Carroll who is the one I'd shed.

You have 2.8m banked so that's 9.4m available. Options would be:

Giroud 8.7m - nailed on to start one would think with Welbeck injured and has a plum fixture. Only problem is no Arsenal slot, you'd need to remove Iwobi for a hit.
Lukaku 8.7m - has actually had decent goal threat recently according to the stats, has the Euros to prepare for and with Martinez gone Everton may play as if the cloud has lifted. Lukaku also has previous for goals on the last day of the season including a hat-trick a couple of seasons back.
Benteke 8.0m - less sure to start but pretty likely to one would imagine. Liverpool are still creative even when they rest players and their fixture isn't the hardest. Has scored a few recently.
Martial 7.7m - will probably play because the game matters and there is a week before the Cup Final. In good form but less of a differential maybe.

Alternatively you could bench Carroll and upgrade Iwobi, playing 3-5-2. Your 2.8m banked would bring Tadic 6.6m within reach.

Those are the best options I can see. If it were me and taking a risk to make up 23 points were the only issue I'd go with Lukaku, he looks the most capable of getting a big score (which is what you need) I think. Alternatively I might bench Carroll, do Iwobi :arrow: Tadic and (c)KDB or Hazard. The captaincy can be a good differential too.

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Beerfuelledman
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Re: A differential differential.

Post by Beerfuelledman »

Thanks for the input Ruth. Iwobi concerns me - Against Villa he seems to command a starting berth, so I'm currently 352 for GW38. I suspect my rivals will go for Long, so Giroud is a real option, though any option I can see to -4 for Iwobi to get him is worse than Deeney so Giroud is essentially a -4 from the off. Lukaku Vs a relegated Norwich with Joe Royle at the Helm may indeed be a differential differential...
Do I have the "Stones" to take it though??

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Beerfuelledman
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Re: A differential differential.

Post by Beerfuelledman »

Tadic the most transferred in player for the masses at 50k - Giroud at 30k, Long is on about 11k...and Lukaku on 4600..

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: A differential differential.

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Beerfuelledman wrote:Thanks for the input Ruth. Iwobi concerns me - Against Villa he seems to command a starting berth, so I'm currently 352 for GW38. I suspect my rivals will go for Long, so Giroud is a real option, though any option I can see to -4 for Iwobi to get him is worse than Deeney so Giroud is essentially a -4 from the off. Lukaku Vs a relegated Norwich with Joe Royle at the Helm may indeed be a differential differential...
Do I have the "Stones" to take it though??
Well, seeing that Lukaku is still in my team and has been through 3 blank DGWs I hope I'm right. :wink:

I'd be playing 3-4-3 anyway unless you upgrade Iwobi. I'd much prefer to play Deeney against a weakened and relieved Sunderland. And if you did upgrade Iwobi it would be Carroll I'd bench, not Deeney.

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Re: A differential differential.

Post by thebillfella »

Mane (if fit)
Long
Ayew

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bcfc1903
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Re: A differential differential.

Post by bcfc1903 »

Rashford
Iheanacho
Ayew
Falcao
Lamela
Ibe

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Beerfuelledman
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Re: A differential differential.

Post by Beerfuelledman »

Beerfuelledman wrote:
GW38....png
Ive been looking at this this morning with a view to guessing my opponents GW38 teams and transfers in the hop this might guide me down a specific path.

My Team
Darlow Robles
Gabriel Valencia Mangala Cresswell Simpson
Sanchez Hazard Payet De Bruyne Iwobi
Aguero Carroll Deeney

Team 1
De Gea Robles
Moreno Gabriel Delaney Taylor Simpson
Sanchez Hazard Payet Mahrez (Firmnio :arrow: Tadic)
(Carroll :arrow: Long) Aguero Defoe

In this teams position, I have to say, with Moreno possibly rested, Delaney possibly rested, Taylor injured & no AOA a defensive transfer is possibly the wisest move. With 0.2m in the bank he wont get another Arsenal. With a Strong front 8 there are no transfers NEEDED. Carroll could go for Long, Firminio could go for Tadic. Both could go for a hit. Actually, this team is 13pts off the leader. That actually might be the gamble there with Defoe benched. I hope he just does Firmino - Tadic. That would allow me a decent gamble on Shane Long. Looking at his mini Leagues he follows FFS. I think I need to see what they recommend for GW38 - he'll likely do that.

Team 2
Darlow Robles
Bellerin Gabriel Lovren Souare Huth
Sanchez Hazard Payet Lanzini Lingard
Aguero Deeney (Sturridge :arrow: Long)

The leader needs only to maintain his lead. In this position Lovren Souare & Huth are all doubts, though I think Sturridge is the biggest concern. A safer option might be to ensure a 3rd playing defender and bench Sturridge in a 352. However, with only 13pts in the clear I suspect he may gamble on one of his non Arsenal defenders playing and try and cover a catch up move. With 3 Arsenal Giroud is not an option so Long. Probably bench Lingard.

All very subjective of course, but one must attempt to plan. One must also assume all will captain Sanchez against Villa. This puts the line ups like this...
Line up...png
and if we remove then the common denominators...
Common Denominators.png
De Bruyne is my big differential. Valencia could play as Utd try to keep 4th place hopes alive or could be rested for Cup Final. Cresswell would be an able deputy or one unworthy of a transfer anyway. Much could come down to Iwobi. He concerns me. He could be a marvellous differential if he plays but there''ll be much competition for places with Ozil, Cazorla, Walcott, Wilshire all pushing. In typing this post, I think removing Carroll, away to Stoke for a starting forward and benching Iwobi is the safest option. Which I guess is where this started :lol: I have 9.3m to play with. No Giroud as I dont think a hit for a player who would be benched is worthwhile, unless they are a better option than Deeney. Iheanicho tops the form charts - but is as unsure of his place as Iwobi...Can Joe Royle inspire Lukaku? Thats a tremendously big bloody ask. Ulloa could be an option if Vardy is still injured. The sad thing is - Long is the obvious choice, the Ville maneouvre if you will. Im not certain any of the other gambles present a decent chance of return.

Still musing...
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19Yorke
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Re: A differential differential.

Post by 19Yorke »

I vote Long

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: A differential differential.

Post by Ruth_NZ »


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Beerfuelledman
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Re: A differential differential.

Post by Beerfuelledman »

Transfers don't have to be confirmed until an hr before kick off tomorrow. I think that gives a chance to see the line ups. It may come down to the wire. I think 34pts is too much to catch in one GW so Im going to concede 1st and make a stab at the runner up prize - and Im not going to catch him with the same players...

I cant bring myself to consider Lukaku. For those who have him I hope he does well, but its a leap to far for me at the min to believe Joe Royle will overturn weeks of poor form, bad feeling and uncertainty in a couple days with what I think are better options. Lukakau is OUT. I cannot consider Iheanacho or Giroud without a points hit. Removing Iwobi will be for a bench player so Giroud is OUT. Mangala & Carroll :arrow: - Van Dijk & Iheanacho (-4) ??? I have a suspicion YaYa will return to play in front of the two Fernand(in)os with KdB and Jesus anyway. With Costa out a Chelski forward might be a differential. Will Hiddink start Pato? That might interest me - Traore not so much. Where I am at at the min is as follow:-

Option 1) Payet - Mane (Will depend on Iwobi being named starter)(Controversial but Payet cancels out Payet at the min)
Darlow
Gabriel Valencia Mangala
Sanchez Hazard Mane De Bruyne Iwobi
Aguero Deeney
Robles Carroll Cresswell Simpson

Option 2) Carroll - Long (Maybe if Iwobi is named Sub)
Darlow
Gabriel Valencia Mangala
Sanchez Hazard Payet De Bruyne
Aguero Deeney Long
Robles Iwobi Cresswell Simpson

Option 3) Iwobi - Tadic (0.1m short of Iwobi - Mane)
Darlow
Gabriel Valencia Mangala
Sanchez Hazard Payet De Bruyne Tadic
Aguero Deeney
Robles Carroll Cresswell Simpson

Im very boring :oops:

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: A differential differential.

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Beerfuelledman wrote:Transfers don't have to be confirmed until an hr before kick off tomorrow. I think that gives a chance to see the line ups.
It won't, and I see people post this optimistically a bit on here. The deadline is almost always and hour before the first kickoff, and I can't think of a time that when this has been the case and we've seen the teams before the deadline. Trying to see the teams before the deadline is just going to distract you from decision making with the information you have.

There was a strange week last season where the deadlines were something like 45 minutes before a kickoff.

I think Carroll :arrow: Long would tempt me most, unless you're sure Iwobi won't start for some reason.

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Beerfuelledman
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Re: A differential differential.

Post by Beerfuelledman »

Yes you are right on the line ups, that was perhaps a little optimistic but we have already learned Howard will start, Speroni will start, Pickford has a very good chance of starting and Mane is passed fit. While I dilly dally, hopefully some snippits may arise to make the decision easier. Im not sure on Iwobi at all. If Walcott plays I think it wil be at the expense of Giroud - Not Sanchez who I think will start. That leaves 7 players - Elneny, Coquelin, Wilshire, Ramsey, Ozil, Cazorla and Iwobi for the other 4 spots.

I agree with 19Yorke and yourself on Carroll :arrow: - Long probably being my best transfer. I just worry it isnt enough to make up the 23 pt difference. Hopefully KdB will weigh in with his fair share. I'm reckoning my opponent does Firmino - Tadic now as anything else leaves no sub.

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Beerfuelledman
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Re: A differential differential.

Post by Beerfuelledman »

Beerfuelledman wrote: Team 1
De Gea Robles
Moreno Gabriel Delaney Taylor Simpson
Sanchez Hazard Payet Mahrez (Firmnio :arrow: Tadic)
(Carroll :arrow: Long) Aguero Defoe

Carroll could go for Long, Firminio could go for Tadic. Both could go for a hit. Actually, this team is 13pts off the leader. That actually might be the gamble there with Defoe benched.

Team 2
Darlow Robles
Bellerin Gabriel Lovren Souare Huth
Sanchez Hazard Payet Lanzini Lingard
Aguero Deeney (Sturridge :arrow: Long)

I think Sturridge is the biggest concern. A safer option might be to ensure a 3rd playing defender and bench Sturridge in a 352. However, with only 13pts in the clear I suspect he may gamble on one of his non Arsenal defenders playing and try and cover a catch up move.

One must also assume all will captain Sanchez against Villa.
So I went Payet :arrow: Mane in the end. News of Payets injury made me glad I waited. My opponents moves tell me No2 is not watching No3 (me) but is going for 1st himself.

I guesses all the transfers out correctly - but got the transfers in wrong.
Team one went Firmino & Carroll out - but for Ozil & Ighalo. (c) went to Aguero. (COME ON SANCHEZ!)
Team two went Sturridge out - but for Martial. (c) to Sanchez.

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