Patrician's Crystal Ball

[Turd Ferguson]

Good stuff. I think if you look back at past seasons, reliable forwards at 6 or less will be very difficult to find. Maybe it's my memory playing tricks, but it's usually a pain point for me to find bargain forwards. Jimenez and Wilson this year are an outlier and result in a bias towards 6m or less. Some years you'll have to stretch to 7 or 8m to find players who score well. This year was a particularly barren one in the 7-9 range.

You have convinced me to go for 3 super premiums rather than 2, though. Capturing massive captain hauls is such an important part of the game, and holding extra super premiums may well be the key to it.

[Sutter Kane]

Presuming those super premiums are from different teams to max options, that means you can't really have Sterling and Aguero. Well you can for spells I suppose and isn't that what this is about more than captains, if a top team has a lovely run of games (where you suppose they smash a few teams as the table can show us), you want as many of their attacking players as possible (also some of their other players will be captained by others because they are good captain choices)?? I guess transfers can help one achieve the desirable captains and also the desirable super premium attacking options from a single team, just a bit of juggling involved.

I wonder where this leaves the idea of say, plumping for VVD, TAA, Robertson at season start - they offer terrific vfm and surely will do again next season, almost regardless of price. But then captain wise, surely you'd need Mane for example. (esp at home, where he's ridiculous)

I'd certainly love to participate in a discussion of strategy around captaincy.

Yeah me too. Nailing it is a massive cog in just having a good season, let alone a great one. I got less overall than if I'd just stuck with Salah all season, again!

[Patrician]

If you look closely at Sterling and Aguero, they seem to prefer different opposition. Sterling likes the middling defences, Aguero does better against the worst defences, so I think you can consider combining those two. Salah and Mane like the same type of opposition so it makes no sense to have both (this is one of the factors that allowed me to catch my rival this season. He had Salah and Mane for the run in and being only able to captain one of them was a major advanatge for me).

The next part in this series will have a look at the 7-9M "Dead Zone".

[raoul]

My own analysis has not been quite so detailed, but based on it I have an almost identical starting lineup for 2019/20 (price permitting) to your conclusion above.

I think there is a sweet spot. I suspect it varies a touch by season. And this season it was probably to use two from Salah/Hazard/Sterling and using a lot of transfers to keep rotating them based purely on fixtures. Rotating the captaincy between them adds a lot more points, as their scoring was very predictable as your analysis shows. I would probably have Aguero almost every week, but putting in Auba when Aguero had tough fixtures.

But is this amount of HOHO viable?

My starting XV included 8 regular starters who averaged 36 games a year each, plus Aguero (an easy 4 week replacement, otherwise pretty much ever present). My other 2 starters were Mendy and Coleman. Mendy was fabulous until he got hurt but an easy replacement. Coleman was perhaps the more annoying one, with a scattering of no shows. And anyway, I had Boly and AWB on the bench to deal with that.

So what did I do? Spent transfers ditching all of them. What a waste.

So yes, this transfer usage is viable.

The bigger question I have is the obvious one - if the above plan is screaming to be used, was it a plan that worked last season? Are the likes of Salah, Sterling, Hazard etc just repeating previous form?

I did not play FPL before this year, so have had to look at the points rather than go by memory (I could guess from TFF but...).

The answer is yes, totally predictable in terms of total points.

But were they monsters against weak opposition before this year? Did Wilson have a penchant for away games last season as well?

Does anyone have this data?

[raoul]

and thanks Patrician for such detailed and useful analysis. It is helping me to conclude my own analysis has some merit.

[FranckKessie]

The bigger question I have is the obvious one - if the above plan is screaming to be used, was it a plan that worked last season? Are the likes of Salah, Sterling, Hazard etc just repeating previous form?

The answer is yes, totally predictable in terms of total points.

But were they monsters against weak opposition before this year? Did Wilson have a penchant for away games last season as well?

Does anyone have this data?

Short version.

Salah, Aguero and Sterling yes. Hazard no.

Patrician I know have the last year data to do a consistent analysis and I may have uploaded the raw data in my thread.

[Pirlo's Beard]

Aguero does better against the worst defences

He did score hat-tricks against Arsenal and Chelsea though. I doubt you'd class those among the worst defences.

[raoul]

Aguero does better against the worst defences

He did score hat-tricks against Arsenal and Chelsea though. I doubt you'd class those among the worst defences.

Not sure re Arsenal...

But Salah also scored a haul against a top 6 team. Exceptions. Unlike pokemon can't catch them all.

[dod]

I think what Patrician has discovered is a near optimal dead team for last season. It is unlikely to be a terrible way of playing next season as well but I am equally convinced that it won't be optimal simply because each season is so different. The question is "Is there some underlying truth here that spans the seasons?"

[blahblah]

Yep, I start shite and it continues until Nov to Dec when I do well. An ODT (Optimal Dead Team) is the way to go (for me) until a season is "understood"...

[Aldershot Rejects]

I think what Patrician has discovered is a near optimal dead team for last season. It is unlikely to be a terrible way of playing next season as well but I am equally convinced that it won't be optimal simply because each season is so different. The question is "Is there some underlying truth here that spans the seasons?"

I've seen the following suggested as the optimal dead team on twitter - Pickford (VC), Robertson, VVD, TAA, Laporte, Hazard, Sterling (C), Sigurdsson, Fraser, Aguero, Wilson, (Jiminez, Deulofeu, Digne, Leno). I know there were a couple of tweaks proposed and I haven't looked for the last few days, but this is certainly the kind of side we are looking at. There are 3 premiums - Hazard, Sterling & Aguero, and only one Siggy between 6 & 10m which backs up Patrician's analysis.

However, looking at the previous season's optimal team and there was no-one above 10m and 6 in the price-band 8-10m. Of course, this season was unusual because of Sterling & Salah, but it kind of proves your point dod. The one commonality between the team was the prevalence of expensive defenders.

[Sutter Kane]

He had Salah and Mane for the run in and being only able to captain one of them was a major advanatge for me).

Yeah I agree on the captain front which may well trump everything due to the awful value expensive players provide. However when Salah/Mane for eg, do well against a certain type(s) of opposition and Liverpool have lots of those types of games upcoming, having both doesn't seem like a bad idea...Is that trumped by captaincy though? This season it was, because the Pool defence was obscenely good.

[Patrician]

I think what Patrician has discovered is a near optimal dead team for last season. It is unlikely to be a terrible way of playing next season as well but I am equally convinced that it won't be optimal simply because each season is so different. The question is "Is there some underlying truth here that spans the seasons?"

I don't think this is a "Dead Team", such a team needs to be very actively managed - optimal fixtures for armband, analysis to understand what the optimal fixtures are, HOHO for good/bad fixture runs. I think the fundamental truth is that a team can get value for money from 3 or even 4 premium players. This is a revelation to me, because I always assumed 1 or 2 (I talk about it in the first three pages of this blog). It will fundamentally change how I play this game and time will tell if it makes a difference to my ranking.

I completely agree with all the points about when 7-9M becomes must haves, that happens when a player first emerges as a premium points scorer before pricing catches up (Sterling, Salah, Mahrez notable examples in previous seasons). The good news is that these players are normally very obvious and it is just a race to identify them ASAP (my points forecasts already do this bit well). Slightly more tricky is when a player in this range is value for part of a season, Pogba, Son, Vardy this year, which I think needs a very optimal scenario to predict. Amazing fixture run (Son), new manager bounce (Pogba, Vardy).

[blahblah]

Ruth nailed Vardy with his post about the skank's new manager bounce.

[Patrician]

What it takes to win FPL - Part 5 - The "Dead Zone"

If you are targeting an average of 70 points per week, then players in the 7-9M price range are generally not going to cut it. A 7.0M Midfielder or Forward needs to bring you 5.4 pts per week on average, 7.2 points per week at 9M. You will generally always have a better captain option, so they need to deliver this without the armband. Most of the time that does not happen.

There are broadly four types of exceptions to the rule…

Premium quality, bargain price

This is when a new FPL star emerges, performing at premium levels (>6pts per game). We don’t have a good example from this season, Salah, Sterling, and Mahrez are all examples from previous years. These players become obvious must haves to everyone fairly quickly. You must have them, and your goal is to get them in quicker than everyone else. Treat them as one of your three/four premiums.

Sacked Manager

Paul Pogba averaged 10.2 points per week from GW18-26, in the immediate aftermath of OGS appointment. A very frustrating player indeed, as he has the quality to be the best FPL player in the whole game, but his attitude stinks. This also coincided with a relatively easy fixture run (car HUD BOU new tot BHA BUR lei ful), so the scenario was ideal.

Vardy averaged 8.1 points per week GW 27-36 under Rodgers. Another quality player who was at odds with the outgoing manager. Fixture run was also nice (CPL BHA wat FUL bur BOU hud NEW whu ARS)

Great Fixtures

Son averaged 9.4 points per week GW 15 to 26. This was a run of SOU lei BUR eve BOU WOL car MUN ful WAT NEW LEI, and he had also shown some form in the two matches previous against CHE ars. 8 out of 12 games at home, no big guns. How did I not capitalise on this? Perhaps slightly harder to get right as there are other options in the Spurs squad.

Change in role in the team

Taking over penalty duties, key player injury, change in manager tactics. Not sure what good examples there are from this year. Kane went in the opposite direction, playing deeper than previous seasons. I think Laporte was occassionally playing as a full back in the latter stages. Jesus comes into play if Aguero is injured.

Principles

1) Identify in advance and always be on the alert for these ideal scenarios.

[hancockjr]

Why should one assume PPM is linear whatever the spend? Isn’t it possible (likely, imo) that the best ppm is from the cheapest players, but this won’t spend all your money so you should accept lower PPM for more expensive players, in return for actually using your budget?

[blahblah]

Why should one assume PPM is linear whatever the spend? Isn’t it possible (likely, imo) that the best ppm is from the cheapest players, but this won’t spend all your money so you should accept lower PPM for more expensive players, in return for actually using your budget?

Yep, as per above, with Henry being a must have way back when...

[Patrician]

Initial 1920 Fixture Analysis - First 6 Games Quick Look

Liverpool - Amazingly good, 3 players mandatory from Robertson, VVD, TAA, Salah, Mane
Man City - Amazingly good, 3 players mandatory from Laporte, Sterling, the Silvas, De Bruyne, Aguero
Bournmouth - Opening two fixtures against promoted sides. Three home games in first five weeks. Wilson, King, Fraser, Brooks
Everton - No big teams, and two fixtures against promoted sides in first six weeks. Pickford, Digne, Siggy, Richarlison
Spurs - Three good home games in first five - Kane, Son, Eriksen
Palace - Couple of promoted teams in first four matches, PvA, Zaha, Mili
Chelsea - Two great fixtures GW3-4, but new manager so line up and tactics uncertain. A defender maybe.

These are the teams to plunder for a solid initial squad, padded with base price players.

Captains

GW1 - LIV or TOT
GW2 - No standout, ARS maybe best, followed by LIV
GW3 - TOT
GW4 - MCI or CHE
GW5 - LIV or TOT
GW6 - MCI or ARS

So to provide a strong armband during first six weeks, then three premiums have it covered Liverpool, Spurs and City.

[Patrician]

More Detailed Fixture Analysis

Here is a ticker that seeks to identify the best and worst runs of fixtures from an attacking perspective. Obviously this will change a lot once the season is underway and we get to see how teams are actually performing. Will a promoted team do a Wolves? How will Chelsea be post Hazard and Sarri?

The purple fixtures are what I expect to be a plum fixture for the best attacking teams (facing a bad defence at home). It is interesting to note that only 5 gameweeks do not have a plum fixture, GWs 3,5 18, 28 and 34, with two of those coming in the first five weeks. Spurs are the side that cover GW 3 and 5 the best with home matches against Newcastle and Palace. Spurs have a very nice run of home fixtures throughout the first half of the season, so it would be great if Harry Kane could revert to EPL 17/18 form.

While Liverpool have a good start fixture wise, there is only one plum fixture in GW1 against Norwich. Decent fixture in GW5, Newcastle at home, but arguably they may not generally be offering the best captain option until GW21, after which they offer more great fixtures. I very much doubt that Salah will prove to be good value for money in the first half of the season because of this, so Mane will be the way to go for a Liverpool forward.

Chelsea have a particulary kind first half of the season, especially 6-19, so it will be very interesting to see how they do. I assume that Kante will be played in his best position, which could strengthen the defence, and perhaps Alonso will get his attacking duties back at a discount price. Could be interesting.

Villa have the kindest early schedule from the promoted sides, so may be worth shopping for bargains there.

Lovely start for Everton, Digne and Siggy almost certainly good options.

The Bournmouth boys should have a fast start again.

Arsenal looking great for GW6 to 16 - Auba should plunder those week.

Fixture Ticker.JPG

[TheRumourMill]

This is really useful, thanks.

Personally though in terms of captaincy I find it difficult to look beyond Liverpool and City. Those 2 teams are so far ahead of everyone else, including the rest of the top 6, that I think they are deserving of their own category. Similarly they both have at least a couple of players each that you would consider giving the armband to. I don't really see that with the 3rd to 6th place teams from last year - Chelsea have lost the one player you would consider captaining, Manchester United are an abject shambles, Arsenal continue to be abysmal away from home and have a manager wedded to extreme rotation both game to game and within games, and although Spurs have Kane, he isn't the Kane of 2017/18 any more, and I'm not sure he ever will be again, truth be told. I have captained Alli and Son in the past but Son is suspended to start the season and Alli is going backwards (both in terms of output and his position on the field!).

I agree with your initial analysis of Salah v Mane though. And Chelsea are interesting, particularly if Lampard is employed and brings through some of the youth like Mount, Abraham etc. Could be some budget gems there. Shame Hudson-Odoi and RLC are both out injured though, as they are the more proven of the youngsters.

At Everton, in addition to the players you mention, DCL could be a very useful cheap striker if his place is secure.

[Buffrey]

Such a great thread. I’ve also built a form analyser using the ICT index and will put it to the test seeing which of these optimal players you mention earlier would have got selected on a GW5 WC.

Love this. Thanks for the hard work in writing and doing.

[Patrician]

That’s a great way to test any model, I would be interested to hear if you get good results from a different methodology.


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[dod]

Great work as usual Patrician .

[Buffrey]

That’s a great way to test any model, I would be interested to hear if you get good results from a different methodology.


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It didn’t turn out well. Basically told me to fill my backline with Watford defenders who defensively started the season pretty well (Holebas got 4 assists for example)

Also didn’t help that the prices from scout don’t revert so Doherty is calculated at 5.3 although when reverting to 4.5 (price at that point) he hits top 10 choice defenders.

Be interesting to know what variables you favoured to allow your model to suggest some of the ones that became optimal.

As a test I decided to try and reverse engineer the “signs” of an explosion. Taking Jiminez / Doherty / Wood I tried to find indicative stats in the few weeks prior to a run of point returning form. Didn’t find a lot to play with.

Defensively (in terms of offensive returns) I found that possession (touches) in the final third/box was the best indicator.

[Patrician]

I use a combination of shots, xG (expected goals), chances created and xA (expected assists). Gets decent results.

[Patrician]

Price List is Out, Hooray!

....and a pretty tough pricing structure it is too. After an initial analysis I think it will likely be a lower scoring season than last year unless some new players emerge strongly. Quite a lot of players are a tad more expensive than I was expecting. 6 players at >11M seems a lot.

Players that could be under-priced

Kane - if last seasons role/points total was a one off, then 11M could be a snip
Vardy - if he is permanently back to his end of season form
De Bruyne - if fully fit and firing
Alonso - if he is back to attacking duties post Sarri
Mendy - if he is fit
Zaha - Extra goal and CS points
Burnley - no Europe distraction

Only a few outfield players, mostly defenders, hit my VfM benchmarks to average 70 points per week.

Benjamin Mendy (does anyone know his situation?)
Marcos Alonso
Trent Alexander-Arnold
Virgil van Dijk
Andrew Robertson
Jamie Vardy (not too keen on his starting fixtures)
Kieran Trippier

The following teams have an easy start

Manchester City
Liverpool
Everton
Palace
Bournmouth
Spurs (nice home matches with good captaincy coverage)
Chelsea
Villa

Putting it all together - First draft

Forget the bench, will fill with base price players which I have no view on yet. First Xi to start the season looks like...

First Draft FPL1920.JPG

Might downgrade the defence a bit, depending on pre-season and transfers, to upgrade one or both of Brooks/King to Fraser/Wilson. Alternatively Laporte/Digne could swap in for Alonso/Mendy if that duo looks too high risk.

I think Mane / De Bruyne / Kane as the three premiums provides excellent captaincy coverage. Salah/Sterling will struggle to justify their price tags, although I would prefer one of those two in the mix. Will probably end up with Vardy as my premium forward, just not initially.

[Jameselaprendi]

I’ve seen a lot of RMTs in the last day or so.... (on Twitter)

This is by far the closet to my initial thinking - especially including your comments underneath
Probably the only player not mentioned that I’d be interested in at first is Siggy - if still on pens

On that topic, Rashford might get pens and assured starts if Pogba & Lukaku leave...
Also monitoring Ritchie, penalty taking advanced playing defender... (crap opening fixtures though)

[goooner]

Patrician, how do u Think VAR gonna affect PL this year?
Kane for 11m could be really nice if its more penalties this year.
Or ings as backup.
Robertson and TAA could get a few handball assists.

[Mav3rick]

I wouldn't argue with any of your first team choices, with the possible exception of Alonso as we don't have enough information about how Chelsea will setup yet with whomever their manager turns out to be. You could just slot a Laporte in there though as you say. Overall it's close to where I am, so I find that encouraging.

[Patrician]

Patrician, how do u Think VAR gonna affect PL this year?
Kane for 11m could be really nice if its more penalties this year.
Or ings as backup.
Robertson and TAA could get a few handball assists.

I am going to make an assumption that VAR will be worth an extra 10 points for a penalty taker I think. My guess is that we will see a few more penalties given in the early part of the season than normal.

Does the introduction of VAR give a net advantage to Defenders or Attackers in open play? I suspect that it favours attackers slightly - defenders can't get away with dirty tricks, so perhaps we can expect a slightly higher number of goals on average?

Guesswork really.