Raoul's RMT

[raoul]

Is Plan A stupid? Am I missing something that makes Plan B a lot more sane?

Plan A is good until GW33. It might be tricky to optimise DGW35 with it is all. But you'll have 3 FTs after the FH so it should be manageable.

Essentially you probably have a choice between a weaker GW33 (Plan B) or a weaker GW35 (Plan A). Perhaps it's best to go the route that seems to suit the weeks with the fixtures you know - so GW28-30, 34, 36-7. It also depends whether your squad as it stands can most easily be made ready for GW31 or GW32 with FTs.

The one advantage of preparing for GW31 is that we'll very soon know exactly what we are facing there, whereas GW32 is likely to be up in the air until GW31 is played. That suits your Plan A and is what I will be doing. But I also have a wildcard to use in GW34.

Thanks for that.

GW32 FH

At present there are 5 teams with guaranteed matches in both GW 31 and 33. A FT for GW33 means I can have one GW31 starter who then blanks in GW33 and field full lineups in both weeks. Unfortunately I only have 2 players from those 5 teams, and in fact don't do any better in GW31. So I would need to use 9 transfers from now until GW31 (and then hope nobody is injured), which means 3 hits.

My GW31 starters could be:

Fabianski - HUD

TAA - ful
S Cook - NEW
Tarkowski - LEI
Pereira - bur
Chilwell - bur

Mane - ful
Salah - ful
Anderson - HUD

King - NEW
Wilson - NEW

The GW33 fixtures for the above look decent (although a lot of aways), other than Fabianski:

che

sou
BUR
bou
bou
hud

sou
sou
che

BUR
BUR

My bench players are likely to be from my current squad, to avoid yet further hits - Sane, Pogba and Rashford. I doubt any of those would be available in GW31, but in GW33 perhaps they one or more will be.

Liverpool and Bournemouth have decent runs in, so at least some of this lot could be safe to hold onto post GW33.

GW31 FH

My current squad is not good for GW31, and therefore of course is not too bad for GW32. I reckon I have 7 safe doublers at the moment. So with 5 free transfers between now and GW30, and another available in GW32 after FH week, I have some flexibility to have plenty of doubling starters.

The question is, how much should a FH be worth? Rotation and bad fixtures could make doubles unattractive for some teams, so maybe I could morph my GW31 lineup into a playable GW32 lineup with some hits, and preserve the free hit?

GW31-33 with no chips ... that is basically madness, right?

I think I am moving towards a GW31 FH, given my current squad.

[raoul]

well the FH would have had a grand day today. Around 60 pts so far thanks to Che and Palace defence inc Luiz, and Hazard, and MC forwards to come.

My actual team has 19 from 4 players, with all my defence contributing so far. And a lot of players left to come.

A decent Salah, Pogba and Rashford week could mean I have not missed out on too many points. A Sterling haul would mean the opposite.

[raoul]

GW25 So Far

I have 73pts, and Aguero (c), Sane, Digne and Salah to come. If I had done the FH, I would have had 98pts, with Aguero (c), Sane, Sterling, Rich, Siggy to come. So I am 25pts down, and it may be more given it is essentially Salah v Sterling + Rich + Siggy. Hopefully Mo does me proud tonight, and Sterling gets a rest on Wednesday.

No idea what a FH should be worth, but for now I need my forward planning to get me 25+ by using it. By not using it this week, I essentially gambled that Wolves, Brighton will win replays, and then go on to join Palace, MC,

ABOUT THAT FH

If I intend to use it for GW32 then:

- I want there to be a lot of doubles, and a lot of GW31 blanks
- I need to start targeting GW31 players as of now, because I reckon I need 9 transfers to be ready (so it will cost me 3 hits)
- if Wolves and Palace could depart the cup and play in GW31, I can be ready without any hits at all … but the value of GW32 falls as there would be fewer teams doubling
- Feels like I am losing out on GW26-30 a bit by looking so far ahead so soon

I do have a GW31 lineup taking shape, and it has some decent players who could stay beyond GW33. It would however need some hits to get it into proper shape to finish the season.

In short this looks like an expensive approach.

If I write off GW31 as a FH exercise:

- who knows, I might not even need it if Cup results free up Prem teams.
- and if that is the case, maybe not too many doublers in GW32 as well … or GW35
- I might have my FH intact for a final week splurge
- whatever the case with FA Cup results, planning for GW32 does not need a huge amount of urgency or radical moves, as I have many of the likely doublers in place already
- Aguero to Auba this week, my planned move if we ignore GW31/32/33 shenanigans, makes sense perhaps

I think I have a neutral move or two for this week, that would delay the longer term decision, but equally I might as well wait for the Cup replays and act with a bit more info in front of me.

I don't actually know what would be better for me. The Prem teams all progress and GW31 becomes a 4-game slate, with GW32 full of doubles, making my FH worth something and causing chaos for those who no longer have it? Or Prem teams to go out, making GW31-33 almost a non-event, and allowing for a FH at some other point (but meaning those with FH and WC have a leisurely run in).

Guess it's the first one, so long as I can manage the chaos and make the right journey through it.

[raoul]

I have worked out a route from now till GW33, with a FH in GW32. It will cost 3 hits. With many of my current squad departing under this plan, I am reasonably safe from injuries - those due to come in to my squad can largely be changed, should they get injured before I get them. Of course, I am at risk of injuries once those players are in.

But now I will wait. See what FAC5 brings.

But I am nearing a conclusion that GW31 is unlikely to be the best use of my FH. GW 35 or 38 look likely to be better options.

After Mo's blank last night, I have to face the fact that GW25 will probably turn out to have been the best use of it. Unless Digne scores a hat trick

[raoul]

OK, so last night's non-event at Goodison means I think I lost out on 25 ish points by not using the FH.

GW25 Review and GW26 Preview

Of more interest from last night? Brighton getting though in the Cup. GW31 now has a realistic chance of having only 4 fixtures. And GW33 could be restricted to 6.

However, it would not take much for GW31 to become an easier play. More on that below.

81pts, up to 349k OR

I got away with my many flags this week, just about. Picking the right captain saved me, given quiet weeks for Salah, Sane and Eriksen.

GW26

Etheridge (Button)
Doherty, Tomkins, AWB, Digne, TAA
Salah, Sane, Eriksen, Pogba, Camarasa
Aguero, Rashford, Kamara

Good fixtures showing for this week, and with the extra info that will appear for GW27 no great panic to do anything.

However, am concerned about Sane's lack of minutes this week and fearing he might be having a strop with Pep. I worry about his minutes going forward, especially with Mendy about to reappear. Add to that his blank GW27 and almost certain blank GW31 and I am thinking:

Sane Mane

Son is the popular midfield switch this week and I can see why. But Liverpool's run to GW31 looks better than Spurs to me, and unlike Spurs (probably) Liverpool play GW31. And Liverpool have a very tasty looking home game this weekend.

I am also staring at the popular Aguero Auba move this week, but will need a -4 to do both the above. And I have other transfers lined up for GW31 meaning a delay will not stop a hit.

So...

Sane + Aguero Mane + Auba (-4)?

[raoul]

GW31 Fixtures

We know 4 of them.

The odds of Chelsea, MC, CP, BHA, Watford and Wolves all getting through, and therefore keeping it to 4 games only, is 5-1. Looks generous to me. Knock out the Chelsea game and the odds are still just shy of 3-1.

Maybe 1 more GW31 fixture will get freed up, but I doubt many more will.

There seems to be some doubt as to when rearranged fixtures might get announced, let alone when they might get played. Which makes GW32 a dangerous week perhaps, hard to predict how doubliscious it might become...

[raoul]

Change of opinion.

TAA, Camarasa and Kamara. All 3 may miss the week. And Sane.

My GW31 plan looks sillier by the second. It costs hits and stops me considering Son, Kane, Jimenez, Jota, Auba, Higuain as all would need further hits to bring them in and then remove them.

FH31 ... And I can focus on dealing with current issues.

Sane and Camarasa + 1.4m Son and Jota

It's a -4.

No brainer right?

[Nabs Kebabs]

Change of opinion.

TAA, Camarasa and Kamara. All 3 may miss the week. And Sane.

My GW31 plan looks sillier by the second. It costs hits and stops me considering Son, Kane, Jimenez, Jota, Auba, Higuain as all would need further hits to bring them in and then remove them.

FH31 ... And I can focus on dealing with current issues.

Sane and Camarasa + 1.4m Son and Jota

It's a -4.

No brainer right?

I'm considering FH GW31 aswell.

And the moves look good but there are still concerns on the fitness of Jota.

[raoul]

Change of opinion.

TAA, Camarasa and Kamara. All 3 may miss the week. And Sane.

My GW31 plan looks sillier by the second. It costs hits and stops me considering Son, Kane, Jimenez, Jota, Auba, Higuain as all would need further hits to bring them in and then remove them.

FH31 ... And I can focus on dealing with current issues.

Sane and Camarasa + 1.4m Son and Jota

It's a -4.

No brainer right?

I'm considering FH GW31 aswell.

And the moves look good but there are still concerns on the fitness of Jota.

A number of things made me change direction, and I went Sane Mane instead.

Jota uncertainty was one thing, but the other was news that Kane might be back by GW27. Son's time will surely be restricted at least a bit.

Also a little nervous that Son might be rested at least in part this week, given CL midweek, but perhaps this is paranoia given Spurs have a rest on FA Cup weekend.

[Nabs Kebabs]

Son was arguably playing his best with Kane as part of a 2 man striker force. I watched the games against Everton and Bournemouth and all I can is WOW...he absolutely terrorized them and got a brace in both. Kane's presence was definitely a big part of this though as he was the guy attracting markers and holding the ball up..creating space for Son to attack. So I actually see it as potentially a good thing.

[raoul]

Son was arguably playing his best with Kane as part of a 2 man striker force. I watched the games against Everton and Bournemouth and all I can is WOW...he absolutely terrorized them and got a brace in both. Kane's presence was definitely a big part of this though as he was the guy attracting markers and holding the ball up..creating space for Son to attack. So I actually see it as potentially a good thing.

fair point. Maybe I should pay my 4 pts and switch Eriksen to Son...

[raoul]

GW26 Nerves

Etheridge
Doherty, AWB, Digne, TAA
Salah, Mane, Eriksen, Pogba
Aguero, Rashford

Button, Camarasa, Tomkins, Kamara

Might struggle to get 11 playing this weekend, with TAA, Camarasa doubts and a chance Rashford gets rested.

Wondering whether a late transfer is helpful to get another starter in (who is GW31 active):

Kamara Ashley Barnes?

[Smurphy Paw]

TP is a big Burnley fan. He commented elsewhere that he wouldn’t bring in Barnes because they don’t score many goals. That put me off

[raoul]

Tbh I see him as a bench man with potential. But this week it is to ensure starters. And as Rashford is on the bench as I suspected he might be, and other flags in my squad, I'll take what is hopefully a safe 2 pts.

But yes Burnley and goals are not words I see sharing many sentences.

[Ironfist]

VFM wise Barnes is not a bad option.
Also, Burnley will put up a decent fight as the season draws to a close, more so I believe than other strugglers.
There aren't many other enticing options at that price range...

[raoul]

GW26 Review

94 (-4)
1,524 pts
Weekly ranking 53,884th
OR 225,282 (up 124k places on the week, and 5th green arrow in a row)

Best weekly score of the season (my previous best being weeks 1 and 2, so it has been a dry spell). Best weekly position of the season. And OR back in an area of semi-decency at least.

Could have been a dire week, given Tomkins was ruled out, Rashford didn't play, Camarasa and TAA started on the bench.

Instead, my starting front 6 scored 9 goals between them, and even auto sub Camarasa dropped in a late assist. They combined for 85 pts. Which tells you my defence was a bit pants.

Anyhoo...

While the Cup gives us all a weekend away from FPL, I need to refine my Plan A, and invent my Plan B. Note A and B do not reflect priority - I don't yet know for sure which one it will be - but Plan A involves creating a starting lineup for GW31 (and therefore 33) with a FH in 32, and Plan B involves a FH in 31, and therefore a build for 32 and beyond.

Plan A

I have a spreadsheet detailing my likely moves and alternatives. I am pretty happy with it. Doesn't look like I am harming GW27-30. And it looks like a reasonable starting point for GW34-38. I doubt I will push for a full 11 starters in GW31 but would hope to have 9 or 10 even if we do only get 4 games played that week. If the Fulham v Liverpool game gets moved to avoid a clash with a Chelsea home cup tie on the same day, then I will need to review things. If there are only 3 league games played that week, it might mean FH is the only option.

Plan B

Tough to plan this, not yet knowing what GW32 will hold. Feels like I should just aim to have the best players, not too dissimilar to now. How many of my 11 would I want to be doubling up? Do I really want to be selling or benching Liverpool players who will only have 1 game?

No point doubling a poor team (aka Everton in GW25) as it achieves nothing.

So let's see what the Cup throws at us, and hope that fixture changes are announced sooner rather than later. Much planning to be done.

[Ironfist]

Well done.

[Smurphy Paw]

I’m liking your thought process raoul. Keep developing it

[raoul]

I’m liking your thought process raoul. Keep developing it

Now that we are around the two thirds mark, I find myself wanting to take stock a bit. This is a learning season, and I want to get all of my lessons recorded before I forget them.

I have read much on here about this game, and it seems to me that there are several decisions that are core to doing well. There is of course a lot of luck as well, and some of that will go against you whatever you do, but good managers seem able to register decent finished season after season with minimal blips.

Anyone care to comment on this list of key decisions? Not just adding/subtracting, but which decisions are the most important?

- Squad structure
- How many players to focus budget on
- when to plan BB
- when to plan first WC
- when to plan FH
- when to plan 2nd WC
- when to use TC
- whether or not to always aim to roll into 2 FT
- bench v transfer out decisions
- transfer early v late in the week
- if you can't have both, form v fixtures
- planning timeframe ... how many GW ahead
- is it worth having money itb and if so how much
- how many super premiums
- 2 playing GK or one set and forget
- are certain stats helpful or not

I should add that I believe in at least some cases there is no single best answer to these questions, and that playing the game the way that works for you, is the most enjoyable etc, has to be a consideration.

[raoul]

One more for the list:

- Squad structure
- How many players to focus budget on
- when to plan BB
- when to plan first WC
- when to plan FH
- when to plan 2nd WC
- when to use TC
- whether or not to always aim to roll into 2 FT
- bench v transfer out decisions
- transfer early v late in the week
- if you can't have both, form v fixtures
- planning timeframe ... how many GW ahead
- is it worth having money itb and if so how much
- how many super premiums
- 2 playing GK or one set and forget
- are certain stats helpful or not
be patient with starting lineup and only use transfers for injuries for first 8 weeks or so?

Last decision on list is based on something I read somewhere on here recently, if you chose good players at the start then they will come good over time, so set and forget unless a very strong reason not to (I give you Milivojevic, who I dropped early on, but who is now catching up with himself)

[raoul]

Thinking/plotting out loud:

Chelsea win tonight

In GW31, only 4 matches take place, with far from attractive teams playing other than Liverpool. Some scope to use Bournemouth, Leicester, Burnley as they all cover GW33 as well. Possibly West Ham but for now just for GW31. I have 4 players for this at present so would need another 7 for a full lineup (and no injuries), which entails all free transfers to be used for this purpose and a couple of hits. I have a plan mapped out that seems to look decent, so this could be done. Bench would be used to store non-playing MC, MU, Wol or whoever else I would prefer not to sell.

In GW32 free hit, because my squad would be mostly non-doublers, and with players I would want to have back in GW33.

In GW33 should be well set.

From GW34 onwards look to move redoublers back in before GW35, and for other good end of season fixture runs.

Not keen to FH GW31, because it leaves me exposed in GW33, and requires me to bring players in from now for a GW32 I have not yet seen. Option is not totally off the table.

[/Chelsea lose tonight

Chelsea and Everton get a GW31, and a GW33, and West Ham also now get a GW33. This makes GW31 and GW33 a lot easier to handle - aiming for a starting lineup with 3 Liv, 3 Che, and 5 from Bou, Lei, WHU, Bur looks ok to me, and then GW32 becomes more interesting as Chelsea will probably double it anyway. Probably still FH it, given the number of other teams doubling.

But.

GW31 is a known. GW32 will have a few doubles but will all of them happen that week or might some have to be pushed back? I think I would rather FH it at the last moment, than plan for the as yet unknown.

And yes, the fact that the world and his wife are likely to FH in GW31 is one of the attractions of playing it without a chip instead, just to be different

[phrampton534]

Thinking/plotting out loud:

Chelsea win tonight

In GW31, only 4 matches take place, with far from attractive teams playing other than Liverpool. Some scope to use Bournemouth, Leicester, Burnley as they all cover GW33 as well. Possibly West Ham but for now just for GW31. I have 4 players for this at present so would need another 7 for a full lineup (and no injuries), which entails all free transfers to be used for this purpose and a couple of hits. I have a plan mapped out that seems to look decent, so this could be done. Bench would be used to store non-playing MC, MU, Wol or whoever else I would prefer not to sell.

Undecided myself as to whether to FH31 and build for DGW32 or build for 31 and FH32. I think Chelsea winning tonight would tip me towards FH31 though as building a team that's OK for 31 is going to mean losing a lot of decent players for 32 and will hit points in the run-up. I've still got a WC though so can use that to clear up the mess afterwards. Don't forget whether Chelsea win or lose there can only be a maximum of 4 matches affected in GW33 (unless the Spurs game is also killed as the SFs are at Wembley). Arsenal, Liverpool, Leicester, Bournemouth, Everton have all definitely got games in GW33 and if Chelsea lose so have they and West Ham. Also if Wolves and Utd go through then it would only be 3 as they play each other in 33...

Should have a slightly better idea after tonight.

[raoul]

Thinking/plotting out loud:

Chelsea win tonight

In GW31, only 4 matches take place, with far from attractive teams playing other than Liverpool. Some scope to use Bournemouth, Leicester, Burnley as they all cover GW33 as well. Possibly West Ham but for now just for GW31. I have 4 players for this at present so would need another 7 for a full lineup (and no injuries), which entails all free transfers to be used for this purpose and a couple of hits. I have a plan mapped out that seems to look decent, so this could be done. Bench would be used to store non-playing MC, MU, Wol or whoever else I would prefer not to sell.

Undecided myself as to whether to FH31 and build for DGW32 or build for 31 and FH32. I think Chelsea winning tonight would tip me towards FH31 though as building a team that's OK for 31 is going to mean losing a lot of decent players for 32 and will hit points in the run-up. I've still got a WC though so can use that to clear up the mess afterwards. Don't forget whether Chelsea win or lose there can only be a maximum of 4 matches affected in GW33 (unless the Spurs game is also killed as the SFs are at Wembley). Arsenal, Liverpool, Leicester, Bournemouth, Everton have all definitely got games in GW33 and if Chelsea lose so have they and West Ham. Also if Wolves and Utd go through then it would only be 3 as they play each other in 33...

Should have a slightly better idea after tonight.

If I had the luxury of both WC and FH left, I think I would aim to play GW31 without them. GW32, 33 and 35 (possible another week, should further doubling rearrangements occur) all may need some chip assistance, and GW31 can be dealt with as a standalone without too much fuss I think (especially if Chelsea go out tonight).

[phrampton534]

If I had the luxury of both WC and FH left, I think I would aim to play GW31 without them. GW32, 33 and 35 (possible another week, should further doubling rearrangements occur) all may need some chip assistance, and GW31 can be dealt with as a standalone without too much fuss I think (especially if Chelsea go out tonight).

No FH31 means that you either compromise your team in the interim (by losing City, Utd, Wolves, Spurs, possibly Chelsea) in the run up to GW31 or you put out a skeleton team and keep them... Chelsea winning would mean you'd need a team from Liverpool, Leicester, West Ham, Bournemouth, Burnley, Newcastle. With no wildcard they're the players you're then stuck with afterwards from 33 onwards. I'm thinking I'd rather FH31 to fill up with Leicester, West Ham Bournemouth, Newcastle, etc. and have more choice for the players I keep going forward? No right or wrong answer and I'm still thinking it through myself so open to ideas but 31 looks a bigger problem than 32 to me?

[raoul]

Showtime

Right, no more pontificating. I am playing for GW31 and GW33, and will FH in GW32 (with a full knowledge of GW32 available when I do it, rather than planning ahead for the unknown).

Current:

Etheridge (Button)
TAA, AWB, Tomkins, Doherty, Digne
Salah, Mane, Pogba, Eriksen, Camarasa
Aguero, Rashford, Barnes

Plan of attack:

Now - Rashford, Eriksen and Digne Lacazette, Anderson, Pereira (-8)
GW28 - AWB Tarkowski (prefer a second Leicester def but cannot afford while holding Aguero)
GW29 - Lacazette Higuain
GW30 - Button Boruc
GW31 - Aguero Wilson or King

The above gets me a GW31 squad of:

Boruc (Etheridge)
TAA, Pereira, Tarkowski (Doherty, Tomkins)
Salah, Mane, Anderson (Pogba, Camarasa)
Higuain, Barnes, Wilson/King

and 5m itb.

That's 10 starters, and the same for GW33 (with potential for Tomkins to be an 11th).

Looks reasonable for GW34 to the end, and the 5m itb allows for all sorts of upgrades for the final few weeks.

Maybe too much itb? Could make GW31 starters look better with Hazard in for Pogba and get a full XI out (for an extra hit)? Or Fraser/Siggy in for Camarasa (not too sure I trust Richarlison anymore)? Or Luiz/Alonso in for Tomkins?

Think I will be pulling the transfer trigger on the first 3 later tonight, but will see if I can wait till Friday just in case.

Your thoughts are very welcome, as always.

[raoul]

Eriksen and Digne out. Anderson and Pereira in. Hit taken.

Rashford to Lacazette tomorrow i think. But feel the need to watch Arsenal game tomorrow first. Not sure why. Just do.

[raoul]

updated current GW31 target.

Boruc (Etheridge)
TAA, Pereira, Rice (Doherty, AWB)
Salah, Mane, Anderson, Fraser (Pogba)
Higuain, Barnes, Wilson/King

A full XI hopefully, both for GW31 and 33.

And 3.6m due to be itb, so should have the flexibility for changes from GW33 to the end, given the likely need to look at Kane, the return of Rashford etc.

Boruc, Rice, Fraser, Higuain (via Lacazette) and Wilson/King are the ones yet to be shipped in.

Still not sure whether to give up Rashford or Aguero to get Lacazette in this week. Rashford has the extra game, but Aguero has better fixtures in 28-30 I think.

But losing Aguero's extra cost makes other moves a lot easier from a cost perspective.

[raoul]

Etheridge (Button)
TAA, Pereira, Doherty (Tomkins, AWB)
Salah, Mane, Anderson, Camarasa, Pogba
Rashford, Barnes, (Aguero)

Quandary.

Rashford Lacazette?
Aguero Auba?
Both?

- whatever I do would cost a hit per transfer
- I would shift out of Arsenal forwards from GW29 onwards
- building for GW31 so from GW29 it is Higuain and GW30 it is Wilson/King (perhaps Vardy)
- Aguero/Rashford either get sold or benched until GW34

I need a plan before 6.45 and I really don't know the answer.

[raoul]

Ok so I decided to hedge bets on which Arsenal forward might haul. I got both of them. Rashford to Laca was the base plan. Then at the last moment I thought a blanking Aguero to Auba made sense.

Now I have a new quandary. Do I switch Auba back to Aguero for GW28 to GW30? Or just keep Auba for BOU then go to my GW31 plan of King/Wilson or Vardy.

If Arsenal don't score at least 2 today I will probably cry.

[Oxford NZ]

Two for the gooners to save the tears but I feel your Aubameyang pain.
I plan on holding and giving him the band again for GW28 and then a change to a GW31 player.
The way players are dropping with ham strings atm I may be forced to keep him and play like Charlie Daniels.