R_NZ FPL Blog

[Aldershot Rejects]

Hi Ruth, I'm really interested to know why you value Hazard over Costa. I'm debating the two and finding it impossible to pick.

Also interested in why you prefer Deeney over Gabb and Defoe. Currently trying to decide whether to run out Tue season with 3 big hitting strikers or go with one the three mid priced options.

To save Ruth repeating himself have a look here: viewtopic.php?f=18&t=124033&start=90

[Ruth_NZ]

Much appreciated AR. Although I seem to quite like repeating myself sometimes.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Much appreciated AR. Although I seem to quite like repeating myself sometimes.

[Ruth_NZ]

Casting Forward

GW29 was another good one, 91 pts for a GW rank of 11k and into the top 4k OR. The tricky GW26-29 sequence has gone well for me.

I will use the International Break to plan the last 9 weeks of the season; this is the time when I have to remind myself to switch to a more aggressive, tactical mode after the smooth steering I try to achieve in the middle half of the season. This season I am arriving pretty well placed in the OR and with TC and wildcard unused so I will be disappointed not to make the top 1k now.

I mentioned my current thoughts on the wildcard elsewhere but essentially I have decided to delay it. There is too much doubt around certain key players (Sanchez, Hazard) and some I wanted are unavailable (Zlatan, Kane, Rose). I have also realised that the wildcard can provide me with a strategic benefit by remaining in my pocket; essentially it allows me to play the gameweeks immediately in front of me without being forced towards DGW37 players before time. DGW34 looks easy to prepare for without wildcarding whatever happens and in any case we should have details in the next week or so.

Essentially I wouldn't hesitate to use the wildcard if I felt my team needed it but right now I don't think it does. So...

Pickford Foster;
Valencia Maguire Funes-Mori Alonso Baines;
Antonio Mané Alli Sigurdsson King;
Aguero Lukaku Barnes; 2FTs & 3.8m

My current thinking is that Mané can be kept till I wildcard, Liverpool have good fixtures and he's probably the best cover. In fact there's no need to remove him before GW37 unless the cash is needed. Similarly Lukaku can stay till GW34, he is a beast right now and I'd like to keep him for LEI BUR in GW32/33; the Mersey derby is an OK game for him so only United away (GW31) is actually poor.

I plan to stay 3-5-2 till the wildcard, essentially it is Kane's absence (together with uncertainty about other key players) that is causing me to delay. So Barnes can stay. Same goes for Pickford, Valencia, Alonso, Maguire (Hull have decent fixtures and he's as good a rotation option as any), Antonio (assuming he's fit as expected, he also has decent fixtures in the main) and Alli.

That leaves Foster, Funes Mori, Baines, Sigurdsson, King and Aguero in the departure lounge. I think I will take a -4 in GW30 and that probably means Funes Mori, King & Aguero being first out of the door. Funes Mori is self-explanatory - he has lost his place and I don't need double Everton defence now. King I'd love to keep on form but with sot liv CHE tot next up he has to be expendable. And Aguero has ars che HUL sot (so only 1 really good fixture in 4) and is only in my team on sufferance anyway. I don't want 12.7m locked in him.

So I reckon my likely moves for GW30 are these:

Aguero Vardy or Deeney
King Hazard, Sanchez or Eriksen
Funes Mori Alderweireld

Obviously these will depend slightly on precise GW34 fixtures when announced. But I don't expect Kane to be back till GW33 earliest and Zlatan, while probably essential for GW34, doesn't need to come back before that (and that could be for Lukaku anyway). So Deeney or Vardy for the next 4+ weeks looks attractive (and I guess I'd also have to consider Gabbiadini if he's fit). Similarly, I feel that a Spurs defender is necessary and I'm not willing to wait for Rose; Alderweireld is my preferred choice there.

That leaves the midfielder and that's the trickiest one. Hazard's fitness doesn't concern me, he'll be fine and is in great form. He's also a strong (c) contender for GW30. Without him I'll be captaining the likes of Alonso, Vardy/Deeney or Sigurdsson. But Chelsea's fixtures aren't special after that. Sanchez' fitness does concern me but even more off-putting is the situation at Arsenal; I don't see his prospects as being helped by playing wide for a team in meltdown. That leaves Eriksen and looking at Spurs' fixtures I am very tempted by this option, especially if I am right about Kane's projected time out.

If I want Sanchez & Vardy I might have to remove Baines instead of Funes Mori but I don't think I'd let Vardy be a deal-breaker. If I wanted Sanchez then I'd likely take Deeney in that slot. If I take Hazard or Eriksen in midfield then budget isn't an issue. So deciding about the midfielder I'll bring in will be the first step and that won't happen for 10 days until the international games are done. In fact probably not till the GW30 press conferences are complete and the fullest picture is available.

A lot will depend on what happens and what information emerges over the next 2 weeks but that's how it's looking to me right now. In a sense, having sketched this out for myself I can now take some time out from FPL and maybe come back with some fresh eyes in a week or so.

[Cliffard]

I'm glad to see how well you've done, Ruth, having paid particular attention to your posts since before this season. Good luck pushing 1k!

[Ruth_NZ]

I'm glad to see how well you've done, Ruth, having paid particular attention to your posts since before this season. Good luck pushing 1k!

Much appreciated, thanks.

[ZeroRemorse]

Yeah good job Ruth. We had a bust up about this earlier in the season. While short term it turned out a bad idea for you. In the long run it's worked out really well. There was some good foresight from you regarding Peps handing of 9's and you foresaw an Aguero struggle. Good call and it's really nice having all those extra funds to spread

[Ruth_NZ]

Yeah good job Ruth. We had a bust up about this earlier in the season. While short term it turned out a bad idea for you. In the long run it's worked out really well. There was some good foresight from you regarding Peps handing of 9's and you foresaw an Aguero struggle. Good call and it's really nice having all those extra funds to spread

Yeah, with hindsight I picked a bad week. But I'd do the same again, Zlatan could have had a hatful in that Burnley game.

Personally I find the strategic element of FPL comes easier to me than the tactical one - meaning the short-term week-by-week stuff. I generally make better decisions when I'm pursuing a longer-term plan but I sometimes get outplayed by managers that react more quickly or are maybe better at judging the players to have in the short term. I sometimes think I'm half of a good FPL manager - put me with someone that's sharp on the reactive side of the game and you might have someone quite good at it.

[Ironfist]

Yeah good job Ruth. We had a bust up about this earlier in the season. While short term it turned out a bad idea for you. In the long run it's worked out really well. There was some good foresight from you regarding Peps handing of 9's and you foresaw an Aguero struggle. Good call and it's really nice having all those extra funds to spread

Yeah, with hindsight I picked a bad week. But I'd do the same again, Zlatan could have had a hatful in that Burnley game.

Personally I find the strategic element of FPL comes easier to me than the tactical one - meaning the short-term week-by-week stuff. I generally make better decisions when I'm pursuing a longer-term plan but I sometimes get outplayed by managers that react more quickly or are maybe better at judging the players to have in the short term. I sometimes think I'm half of a good FPL manager - put me with someone that's sharp on the reactive side of the game and you might have someone quite good at it.

I'm tempted to say that you have an excellent feel of the game mechanics in allowing you better decision making, aka the long term. However, you're not as good understanding football [ ] looking at players live and figuring out how teams perform on a week-by-week basis, aka the short term. Of course this might be completely wrong, but why spoil this (disturbing) idea

[Ruth_NZ]

...you're not as good understanding football [ ] looking at players live and figuring out how teams perform on a week-by-week basis, aka the short term...

I don't think it's really that. It's more when a player emerges or hits a run of FPL points-scoring; I can be slow on the uptake and/or resistant to chase last week's points and that often means I don't get on board. Especially when that player becomes a FFS bandwagon; I am congenitally disposed to ignore those because I think the judgement of that particular herd is often poor. Essentially my starting position is that my judgement is better than theirs.

So, some examples....

• Vardy (last season)
  I didn't have him right throughout his run of 11 consecutive scoring games. I thought he was a one-dimensional player, basically a human greyhound, and I thought the wheels would come off the Leicester wagon. Was I right? Yes and no. Vardy is better than I credited him for and at 6m or so he was a snip last season, it was quite obtuse of me not to recognise that earlier. But at the same time, neither he nor Leicester is as good as they were made out to be as this season shows. Nevertheless, that has to go down as my error.
• McAuley (this season)
  I preferred Evans initially because I didn't believe a 36/37 yo would play every game in the PL and I also didn't see him as a special goal threat, even now he only has 15 goals in 186 games for WBA, so worse than 1 in 12. Essentially I still don't think McAuley is the better pick. Maybe I just can't get the point here. But another error in terms of the outcome anyway.
• Daniels (last season)
  I missed a lot of points by swerving Daniels. Basically my opinion is/was that Bournemouth under Howe are not a clean sheet team. I don't think that's wrong. But I probably under-value attacking points for defenders. To me, the bread-and-butter of defender points is clean sheets and I always focus on that and then look at attacking potential as an add-on. The numbers back that up mostly (appearance points and then clean sheets are by far the biggest components of defender points usually). But that mental inflexibility on my part can cause me to dismiss a defender whose attacking points can overcome the lack of clean sheets. That's probably a flaw in my approach too.

On the other hand, I do avoid a lot of failed bandwagons too. There are too many to mention where I have got it right with hindsight. I have a strong tendency to mistrust budget forwards, generally I don't like strikers under around 8m or 9m because I think the cheaper ones often become a merry-go-round of points-chasing. I would generally rather find a starting forward at around 4.5m and use a 4-4-2 or 3-5-2 structure and this season that has worked well for me with Anichebe and then Barnes in that role. But that does make me less likely to recognise a bargain forward at around 6m. I was even quite slow on the uptake with Kane 2 seasons ago.

So that's what I mean, really. I guess I am happy with my underlying scepticism about such players but also recognise that I can be too rigid and inflexible. It's certainly an area I could improve in anyway.

[Aldershot Rejects]

[*]Daniels (last season)
I missed a lot of points by swerving Daniels. Basically my opinion is/was that Bournemouth under Howe are not a clean sheet team. I don't think that's wrong. But I probably under-value attacking points for defenders. To me, the bread-and-butter of defender points is clean sheets and I always focus on that and then look at attacking potential as an add-on. The numbers back that up mostly (appearance points and then clean sheets are by far the biggest components of defender points usually). But that mental inflexibility on my part can cause me to dismiss a defender whose attacking points can overcome the lack of clean sheets. That's probably a flaw in my approach too.[/list]

This is an interesting one. You are correct that appearance points and clean sheets are the biggest components of defender points. But attacking points (and to a lesser extent BPs) tend to be unevenly distributed amongst a few players.

I reckon there are only about 10-15 players that have regularly scored attacking points this season (and I suspect that is typical). Surprise, surprise, Daniels is one of them again (and I have never owned him). My figures aren't completely up to date, but last time I checked he was still averaging over 4ppg despite a very poor run. Personally I'm trying to pick 3 or 4 of those players because in my experience they are a better source of consistent points than trying to rotate cheaper-priced defenders in search of clean sheets.

[Ruth_NZ]

This is an interesting one. You are correct that appearance points and clean sheets are the biggest components of defender points. But attacking points (and to a lesser extent BPs) tend to be unevenly distributed amongst a few players.

I reckon there are only about 10-15 players that have regularly scored attacking points this season (and I suspect that is typical). Surprise, surprise, Daniels is one of them again (and I have never owned him). My figures aren't completely up to date, but last time I checked he was still averaging over 4ppg despite a very poor run. Personally I'm trying to pick 3 or 4 of those players because in my experience they are a better source of consistent points than trying to rotate cheaper-priced defenders in search of clean sheets.

Yeah. Hmmm.

My benchmark for defenders is Janmaat a couple of seasons back when he was tearing it up for Newcastle. He had 8 assists that season and that is really high for a defender. 8 assists is one in 5 games roughly, so that's 0.6 PPG. OK, there may be a better chance of BPs when those assists occur but usually with a defender that's only when they get a clean sheet as well. Let's call it 0.8 PPG to be generous.

OK, 0.8 PPG is 1 clean sheet in 5 games. If I can find a defender that will keep 1 clean sheet in 5 games more than Janmaat then all his attacking points are neutralised. OK, not goals but I don't think he actually scored that season (or if he did it was only one and any defender can do that). That's my basic thinking about attacking points for defenders, especially assists. I think CSs overwhelm them in importance.

Goals are different because they are 6 points; a defender with real goal threat is a big asset. JT in his day as an example. Or Baines when he was the penalty king (and Everton actually got some ). But with the exception of CBs with big set-piece threat (Dann but not this season for example) or the odd one on penalties (Daniels last season) it is hellish hard to predict defender goals, isn't it?

I'm not saying I have this right. Clean sheets this season are down on previous trends. Maybe that changes the balance. So I'm interested in this discussion. But what made not having Daniels an error last season was his penalties. He doesn't have them now and I'm not much interested in him as a result.

[Aldershot Rejects]

This is an interesting one. You are correct that appearance points and clean sheets are the biggest components of defender points. But attacking points (and to a lesser extent BPs) tend to be unevenly distributed amongst a few players.

I reckon there are only about 10-15 players that have regularly scored attacking points this season (and I suspect that is typical). Surprise, surprise, Daniels is one of them again (and I have never owned him). My figures aren't completely up to date, but last time I checked he was still averaging over 4ppg despite a very poor run. Personally I'm trying to pick 3 or 4 of those players because in my experience they are a better source of consistent points than trying to rotate cheaper-priced defenders in search of clean sheets.

Yeah. Hmmm.

My benchmark for defenders is Janmaat a couple of seasons back when he was tearing it up for Newcastle. He had 8 assists that season and that is really high for a defender. 8 assists is one in 5 games roughly, so that's 0.6 PPG. OK, there may be a better chance of BPs when those assists occur but usually with a defender that's only when they get a clean sheet as well. Let's call it 0.8 PPG to be generous.

OK, 0.8 PPG is 1 clean sheet in 5 games. If I can find a defender that will keep 1 clean sheet in 5 games more than Janmaat then all his attacking points are neutralised. OK, not goals but I don't think he actually scored that season (or if he did it was only one and any defender can do that). That's my basic thinking about attacking points for defenders, especially assists. I think CSs overwhelm them in importance.

Goals are different because they are 6 points; a defender with real goal threat is a big asset. JT in his day as an example. Or Baines when he was the penalty king (and Everton actually got some ). But with the exception of CBs with big set-piece threat (Dann but not this season for example) or the odd one on penalties (Daniels last season) it is hellish hard to predict defender goals, isn't it?

I'm not saying I have this right. Clean sheets this season are down on previous trends. Maybe that changes the balance. So I'm interested in this discussion. But what made not having Daniels an error last season was his penalties. He doesn't have them now and I'm not much interested in him as a result.

Will try and type a longer reply in later, but briefly my philosophy has changed in the second half of the season and now I won't pick a defender unless they have significant attacking/bp potential. CS is a start but it is insufficient on its own. Fortunately this year, Chelsea, Everton & Spurs have players which offer both albeit at a price (but a price which I think is worth paying). Man Utd have Valencia (& Blind who has great figures when he plays). Outside of those 4 teams there are only 4 regular players who have at least 4ppg Koscielny, Daniels, Bertrand and McAuley.

Comparing Daniels with Vertonghen and Bellerin is interesting:

Daniels: 7 cs; 3 goals; 4 assists; 12 bps = 101 pts in 25 games (4.0 ppg)
Vertonghen: 10 cs; 0 goals, 0 assists; 3 bps = 81 pts in 22 games (3.7 ppg) [Alderweireld is very similar)

I don't know when Daniels stopped taking penalties, but 3 goals, 4 assists and 12 bps is equivalent to 42 pts which dwarfs Vertonghen's 3.

Interesting in terms of clean sheets, Bournemouth are ranked equal 10th and are one behind Arsenal and City. Once you get past the four teams I mentioned below, there are a lot of sides with similar cs potential.

[Ruth_NZ]

Will try and type a longer reply in later, but briefly my philosophy has changed in the second half of the season and now I won't pick a defender unless they have significant attacking/bp potential. CS is a start but it is insufficient on its own. Fortunately this year, Chelsea, Everton & Spurs have players which offer both albeit at a price (but a price which I think is worth paying). Man Utd have Valencia (& Blind who has great figures when he plays). Outside of those 4 teams there are only 4 regular players who have at least 4ppg Koscielny, Daniels, Bertrand and McAuley.

Comparing Daniels with Vertonghen and Bellerin is interesting:

Daniels: 7 cs; 3 goals; 4 assists; 12 bps = 101 pts in 25 games (4.0 ppg)
Vertonghen: 10 cs; 0 goals, 0 assists; 3 bps = 81 pts in 22 games (3.7 ppg) [Alderweireld is very similar)

I don't know when Daniels stopped taking penalties, but 3 goals, 4 assists and 12 bps is equivalent to 42 pts which dwarfs Vertonghen's 3.

I will look forward to the longer commentary.

I guess I'd have one main concern and that's the issue of predictability. It is fine to use hindsight but could Daniels' attacking points really have been predicted? I'm not so sure. I'd back Bellerin to have more attacking points than him next season for sure. If Daniels' points were/are predictable that's fine and you are obviously right. But if not then it's data we can't use. McAuley's goals weren't predictable either IMO, sure he could have been expected to score a couple but 6 in 29 games is far-fetched.

The trouble is that clean sheets have become pretty unpredictable this season too. I guess my solution at the moment is to have 3 defenders from the 4 teams you mention plus a couple of cheap rotators who can be used on occasion and also have a little goal threat - Maguire is one and Gibson will probably soon be the other.

The landscape has changed this season in that the number of clean sheets has declined quite a bit. It has been gradually falling for a few seasons but there has been a big lurch down this time. So that's the other question, I think. Is that a trend that will continue or has this season been a bit of an aberration?

[blahblah]

This really is a very good (or top top thread) btw.

On the other hand, I do avoid a lot of failed bandwagons too.

This is the point, there are loads of dud ones... Benteke ffs!!

[blahblah]

For me:

Cheap GK's are about saves (and consequently BP'S) than CS's.

Cheap Defs: attacking points (unless cheapest of a "cheap" club)

Expsenive Defs: CS's and Attacking points. (there are more stat based people on here than me - but my fat aged gut says Bellerin has been a waste this season FP wise.

Mid priced Def's: bit of both, but I kinda need attacking points as there is probably a cheaper option at same Club. (Depends whether CRD at top Club vs expensive at cheaper Club).

[hancockjr]

You couldn't predict MacAuley would get 6in 29 but he was. Likely to get some. By picking those who will get some goals you give yourself a chance of getting the over performing player.

I've always said the incremental money for attacking points is pretty much always worthwhile compared to the CRD from the same team.

[dino1980]

For me:

Cheap GK's are about saves (and consequently BP'S) than CS's.

Cheap Defs: attacking points (unless cheapest of a "cheap" club)

Expsenive Defs: CS's and Attacking points. (there are more stat based people on here than me - but my fat aged gut says Bellerin has been a waste this season FP wise.

Mid priced Def's: bit of both, but I kinda need attacking points as there is probably a cheaper option at same Club. (Depends whether CRD at top Club vs expensive at cheaper Club).

Agree, great topic. I owned Bellerin from GW18-24 so, out of curiosity, just took a quick look at this. A lot of Bellerin's attacking stats are better in 16/17 than they were in 15/16. Touches in the final third/passes received in the final third/penalty area touches, shots/shots in the box/min per attempt etc.

The one stat that has fallen off a cliff is clean sheets which has, thus far, more than offset the increased attacking potential. 4PP90 this season compared to 4.77 last season. That coupled with his his increased price and other players in his price bracket performing consistently (Walker, Alonso) probably make his drop off seem greater than it is, IMO.

[Paulista]

The one stat that has fallen off a cliff is clean sheets which has, thus far, more than offset the increased attacking potential. 4PP90 this season compared to 4.77 last season.

The amount of penalties Arsenal have conceded was pretty frustrating for owners of Arsenal defender assets. 7 penalties conceded, but 6 of those were in games where the opposition only scored once. 6 clean sheets (24 points) lost through penalties. Koscielny would be ahead of Walker right now.

[jacksosi]

I have Bellerin pencilled in on my WC
2 DGWs and seem to remember him having a strong finish last year

[blahblah]

I have Bellerin pencilled in on my WC
2 DGWs and seem to remember him having a strong finish last year

Arsenal usually do

[Ruth_NZ]

I have Bellerin pencilled in on my WC
2 DGWs and seem to remember him having a strong finish last year

Arsenal usually do

No need for the wink, it's a fact. Usually they pick up from March, though and that didn't happen. Maybe the collapse is too big to recover from this time as Wenger's implosion creates a permanent Arsenal groundhog day inside his event horizon. Alexis is trying to escape before he becomes trapped forever I think.

[blahblah]

I have Bellerin pencilled in on my WC
2 DGWs and seem to remember him having a strong finish last year

Arsenal usually do

No need for the wink, it's a fact. Usually they pick up from March, though and that didn't happen. Maybe the collapse is too big to recover from this time as Wenger's implosion creates a permanent Arsenal groundhog day inside his event horizon. Alexis is trying to escape before he becomes trapped forever I think.

That is why the is there. The strong finish is looking decidedly fragile this season....

[Ruth_NZ]

Ah. Emoji interpretation has never been my strongest attribute.

[Redrum2]

I expect Arsenal to have a strong finish as they always find a way to finish inside the top four and above Spurs. If that is the case, Spurs will have to collapse like last season.

[Ruth_NZ]

I don't think they will finish above Spurs. They may make 4th but only because United have a crazy schedule now and may prioritise EL as the easier way into the CL. Between 4th and 6th for Arsenal I'd say.

[blahblah]

Or 7th for me (although Everton's defensive injuries have helped Arsene).

[Ruth_NZ]

GW30 Preview

I have now used my 2FTs for GW30:

Aguero Vardy
Funes Mori Alderweireld

For the moment I have decided to hold off on Antonio Sanchez for a hit but the cash is there for it and I will probably do it next week with my FT. I think Sanchez' performance levels for Chile show him to be indispensible but I'd like to see some kind of signs of life from Arsenal too. My team is OK this week and I can take a free price drop on Antonio so I'll take a look at what happens on Sunday. That means a 4-4-2 for me in GW30:

Pickford;
Valencia Alderweireld Maguire Alonso;
Mané Alli Sigurdsson King;
Vardy(c) Lukaku
Foster Baines Barnes Antonio & 5.1m

The Vardy or Deeney decision was very close for me. What swung it was that Leicester will be super keen to secure their PL future before the CL QFs come around and you can see them going out with all guns blazing in the next 2 home games especially. Either Vardy or Deeney would be holding a place for Zlatan/Kane anyway so the short-term perspective works in this instance. I also considered keeping Aguero this week but Vardy is in the better form of the 2 players and also has the better fixture on paper. The budget freed by losing Aguero enables Sanchez so it made more sense to me to do it now given there's no hit involved.

The defender transfer also took some debate. I did look at bringing Gibson in now in advance of the DGW (and Boro have some useful fixtures beforehand) but it's obvious that a Spurs defender is a far stronger option over the next weeks and now Alderweireld is over his injury issues he's the one I wanted. I did look at Ben Davies in view of Rose's predicted absence for another month - with my wildcard still unplayed I could make that kind of move. But I'm after a defender haul or two if possible and I think Alderweireld has the best chance of providing that. We'll see.

[Sutter Kane]

Yeah good job Ruth. We had a bust up about this earlier in the season. While short term it turned out a bad idea for you. In the long run it's worked out really well. There was some good foresight from you regarding Peps handing of 9's and you foresaw an Aguero struggle. Good call and it's really nice having all those extra funds to spread

Yeah, with hindsight I picked a bad week. But I'd do the same again, Zlatan could have had a hatful in that Burnley game.

Personally I find the strategic element of FPL comes easier to me than the tactical one - meaning the short-term week-by-week stuff. I generally make better decisions when I'm pursuing a longer-term plan but I sometimes get outplayed by managers that react more quickly or are maybe better at judging the players to have in the short term. I sometimes think I'm half of a good FPL manager - put me with someone that's sharp on the reactive side of the game and you might have someone quite good at it.

Speaking of strategic, long term vs immediate points, have you looked at FPL Statistico lately? I've just realised I have zero immediate points gained from 36 transfers; was wondering what you (and others) had, and if an extremely low tally in this department is normal. I've been thinking this for a while; never have I got a player in and they've performed that week. NEVER?? Really? Have I read this stat right?

[Sutter Kane]

Ignore me, turns out everyone's is zero apparently which is shame as it would have been a nice comparison. I guess could work it out manually!