STC - Statistical Thought Cave

[MPTree]

I've already brought in Lukaku.

Tempted to ship Sanchez too. I know Mane is the choice of many, but I'm giving serious consideration to Firimino for three reasons;

* He should be back up top now Mane is back in a more fluid system
* I like a differential
* He would leave enough in the bank to bring in Aguero for Carroll the following week should City get the dgw

I guess it's the last point which holds most weight really. Any thoughts?

Firmino is very much in my thoughts. To continue on from my post above, Sanchez to Firmino and Eriksen to Sterling very nearly gives me Benteke to Aguero, which would be mega.

I certainly don't think there's 0.9's worth of value difference between them. Firmino remains better value than Mané, IMO.

[Notned]

I've already brought in Lukaku.

Tempted to ship Sanchez too. I know Mane is the choice of many, but I'm giving serious consideration to Firimino for three reasons;

* He should be back up top now Mane is back in a more fluid system
* I like a differential
* He would leave enough in the bank to bring in Aguero for Carroll the following week should City get the dgw

I guess it's the last point which holds most weight really. Any thoughts?

Firmino is very much in my thoughts. To continue on from my post above, Sanchez to Firmino and Eriksen to Sterling very nearly gives me Benteke to Aguero, which would be mega.

I certainly don't think there's 0.9's worth of value difference between them. Firmino remains better value than Mané, IMO.

Thanks mate, just the nod I needed. Funds for Carroll to Aguero and thus keeping Kane as a bit of a GW27 differential against those who will ship him for Aguero certainly appeals.

[MPTree]

I've already brought in Lukaku.

Tempted to ship Sanchez too. I know Mane is the choice of many, but I'm giving serious consideration to Firimino for three reasons;

* He should be back up top now Mane is back in a more fluid system
* I like a differential
* He would leave enough in the bank to bring in Aguero for Carroll the following week should City get the dgw

I guess it's the last point which holds most weight really. Any thoughts?

Firmino is very much in my thoughts. To continue on from my post above, Sanchez to Firmino and Eriksen to Sterling very nearly gives me Benteke to Aguero, which would be mega.

I certainly don't think there's 0.9's worth of value difference between them. Firmino remains better value than Mané, IMO.

Thanks mate, just the nod I needed. Funds for Carroll to Aguero and thus keeping Kane as a bit of a GW27 differential against those who will ship him for Aguero certainly appeals.

Upon further consideration, I think I'm joining you on the Firmino train. If I commit to him and Sterling, then that gives me both Ibra and Aguero alongside Lukaku for GW27 (for a -4), which I suspect is a better bet better than holding Benteke and saving the hit.

[gallus]

I've already brought in Lukaku.

Tempted to ship Sanchez too. I know Mane is the choice of many, but I'm giving serious consideration to Firimino for three reasons;

* He should be back up top now Mane is back in a more fluid system
* I like a differential
* He would leave enough in the bank to bring in Aguero for Carroll the following week should City get the dgw

I guess it's the last point which holds most weight really. Any thoughts?

Firmino is very much in my thoughts. To continue on from my post above, Sanchez to Firmino and Eriksen to Sterling very nearly gives me Benteke to Aguero, which would be mega.

I certainly don't think there's 0.9's worth of value difference between them. Firmino remains better value than Mané, IMO.

Thanks mate, just the nod I needed. Funds for Carroll to Aguero and thus keeping Kane as a bit of a GW27 differential against those who will ship him for Aguero certainly appeals.

Upon further consideration, I think I'm joining you on the Firmino train. If I commit to him and Sterling, then that gives me both Ibra and Aguero alongside Lukaku for GW27 (for a -4), which I suspect is a better bet better than holding Benteke and saving the hit.

What about Coutinho? He was everyone's pick before the injury and should be fit for 90 minutes by now.

[MPTree]

What about Coutinho? He was everyone's pick before the injury and should be fit for 90 minutes by now.

I already have him.

[Beerfuelledman]

I wonder will the next 3 GW's put a bit of distance between the player and the casual. No 2 in my ML might squeeze through GW26 alright, but may not even notice a DGW 27 and has currently 2 players playing (+Holgate & Leko) for GW28. Could be some shifts...

[Sutter Kane]

Well many of us will be taking hits. Those can always backfire and could be a leveller. We are almost making plans to not get left behind by each other. People who haven't noticed will perhaps not be taking hits and if most of the next few weeks are relatively low scoring, it'll be the casuals who gain again. However, all things being equal, there should be some kind of gain for those paying attention.

I might be rocking a 5-2-2 or 5-3-2 come gw28! Big decision is whether to go Spurs mid to Mane/Firmino. I'm unsure it's worth a -4 to get that extra man out, considering Spurs are now out of Europe. I suppose it might be mitigating risk time perhaps; Mane could have a blinder and many will own him.

[Mav3rick]

Well, what a difference an FA cup break makes. The Liverpool game, Rainieri and the City DGW are all pretty big news in FPL terms.

Sanchez/Ibra
The Liverpool game dropping in to GW28 has made Sanchez Liverpool mid a bit of an obvious move now, I'll be getting Sanchez back as my Philips replacement in GW29 playing a bit of hokey-cokey there but post GW28, it's looking like a cheaper striker would be my preferred setup so I'll aim for a midfield of Sanchez, Mane/Firmino, Eriksen/Siggy, Antonio and T Carroll, which will leave me Lukaku, Kane/Ibra and a Gabiadini type to complete the front seven.

The Blanks
As everyone has said, what constitutes the best play for this period is all very squad dependent. With my current setup and frees I can have a strong setup in GW26, 9 in GW28 and (importantly for me) two transfers for and a strong team in GW29.

My main concerns are really ditching Philips in GW29, Brunt in 30 and not having two Everton defenders after GW29. It's quite a difficult balancing act, but I think I will settle for the 9 + Amat in GW28. I'll consider an (effective) hit for a Hull or Swansea defender or the other Carroll once we're in the GW28 transfer window.

Wildcard
My team's fixtures break down a bit in GW31 so that's looking like a genuine wildcard opportunity for me, although GW32 is pretty strong again so there's an option to just wait. It depends on the state of the fixtures in the DGWs and what I think about the likely benefits of a WC/BB combo once we know all the facts, but GW31 is the first genuine window for me.

City DGW
Aguero is another consideration and a separate decision. I think I would captain him in GW27, so even for a hit it's probably something I will do, I'm not sure which of Kane or Ibra I'll keep if I do get Aguero in (one of them goes for Sanchez anyway). I don't really see myself compromising my GW28/29 side by taking further hits to get Sterling, but Eriksen => Sane/Sterling is possible for a cost of a -4 and missing out on Siggy's BUR fixture. It doesn't appeal that much as I don't fancy betting on Pep's rotation beyond Aguero.

[Stemania]

I'm in a very similar place Mav.

Cheap striker after the blanks is certainly my plan since Sanchez (who I currently hope to bring in in GW29 for someone), the Europeless Spurs/Liv mids, Walcott and from GW31 Sterling all look great to me. In fact, Spurs going out of Europe has me really keen on keeping Kane/Eriksen long term.

I'm pretty sure it will be big Andy again, for the third time this season for me! West Ham from GW28 have (bou, LEI, hul, ars, SWA, sun) and he'll give that GW28 fixture in the mean time. So, having fiddled my current plan is to pass on Sterling (and give up Siggy's GW27 BUR ) and go for Aguero (c) in GW27. Carroll in for Kun in GW28 along with Siggy (-4). That gives me 10 plus Stanislas in GW28.

I think I'm also still going to go via Costa to Kun this week. It is basically the reason for the (-4) but otherwise it's Holebas and hoping that none of Pulis' niggles are Evans/Brunt this week.

I may even be tempted to try to keep Siggy over Carroll and go 352 post GW29/30 with, say, Barnes. Something like

Sanchez, Mane, Eriksen, Coutinho(/Siggy), rotter
Kane, Lukaku, Carroll +1m

OR

Sanchez, Mane, Eriksen/Coutinho, Sterling, Walcott/Siggy
Kane, Lukaku, rotter

Wildcard? I don't think I'll really think about till the fixtures come out. GW31/32 is possible, but it depends how the doubles pan out. I suspect the Spurs/Liverpool fixtures after GW30 will be good enough at that point to carry my current lot through to the doubles.

[Mav3rick]

I'm in a very similar place Mav.

Good

I may even be tempted to try to keep Siggy over Carroll and go 352 post GW29/30

I like the look of the 352 keeping Eriksen, but I find it hard to navigate a way through the blanks in a way that preserves Eriksen, gives me Siggy in GW27/28 and allows Aguero in a way that adds extra GW28 players.

In fact, it's impossible for me since Eriksen is my only non-blanking midfielder now so Siggy would have to come in for Philips or T Carroll in GW28. Neither is a terrible idea if I'm committed to a 352 as one would have to happen anyway the following week.

I think I'll probably wildcard to get the spurs mids or re-balance to a 352 (draining funds from my defence to do so), it does seem fairly sensible to consider doing this at around GW31 (when I have a series of tough fixtures) but it depends on how easy a BB will be to consider.

If the big DGW is 37 then I might want to hold the wildcard a little closer to that time, but it's where we have to carefully consider then benefits of one route or another and not just assume that WC/BB is either great or awful in all conditions.

I think I'm also still going to go via Costa to Kun this week. It is basically the reason for the (-4) but otherwise it's Holebas and hoping that none of Pulis' niggles are Evans/Brunt this week.

Unfortunately I am out of frees this week but have a similar dilemma (I guess your Costa move at least is a free though)? Holebas could potentially play left wing again I guess, although a move back to left back is perhaps more likely. I could take a hit and get a Hull defender in, they'd play over Holebas this week and would give me 2 points (hopefully!) back in GW28. Obviously I could do similar hokey cokey moves with Ibra too, again for a -4, but I'm certainly looking at options there.

[Stemania]

Yes, Costa would be free, but costs -4 down the line essentially.

I like the look of the 352 keeping Eriksen, but I find it hard to navigate a way through the blanks in a way that preserves Eriksen, gives me Siggy in GW27/28 and allows Aguero in a way that adds extra GW28 players.

This is exactly the same for me with Eriksen in that the only 'playing' mid I can realistically sell for Siggy (Stan doesn't get me anywhere financially that my rotter doesn't). I could slot Siggy in for Eriksen no problem at all, or even Sterling then Siggy, or even just take the extra hit for Sterling in place of Eriksen in GW27, however it just doesn't seem to work in terms of my GW29/30 team due basically to how bad Sterling's fixture are from GW29-31 and the fact I wouldn't captain Sterling. I just really like Spurs now they've Brexited - in fact I may get in a Spurs defender in GW30 odd for Coleman too!

[Sutter Kane]

I'm impressed you guys are managing a route through with minimal hits. I'm stuck with a -8 if I want Siggy and Kun(c) for GW27, Baines for GW28 and a -12 if I also opt for a Liverpool mid in GW28, giving me XI.

The one that's really bugging me is Ibra to Costa this week. He'd play instead of De Roon so I'm not sure it's worth -4. Depends if I wanted to roll with Ibra or Costa after GW28 and whether I think Ibra will ever be rested in the league. FWIW, I'm taking out Lukaku for Kun GW27 when he's at Spurs and then reversing the week after. This is where the additional-8 basically comes from, that bloody Man C DGW!

[Stemania]

Yep. Costa this week for virtual -4 is definitely a thinker. No hits for me otherwise so far planned, but I'm not going to rule out a panic Sterling!


The only other really weird(!) thing I'm half tempted by is to commit to the post GW28 352 now and to the fact that Stan is useless, and go with Barnes this week for no blanks (hul, swa, liv) as that would facilitate Aguero/Sterling in for Kane/rotter (-4) in GW27 and Siggy in for Stan GW28. It would mean 10 in GW28 for me (with no Stan) but would set me up slightly better after the blanks. An easy double transfer would afford me Ibra/Kane & Sanchez in for Kun & any mid in GW29/30 (and give me the 352 setup above).

But it just doesn't feel right. Burnley away are so poor I don't know what Barnes would really add for 3 weeks. And it means basically the same team minus Carroll(/Stan) plus Barnes in GW28 and no Costa this week. Get's Sterling though, but still no Siggy(BUR).

[blahblah]

I'm impressed you guys are managing a route through with minimal hits. I'm stuck with a -8 if I want Siggy and Kun(c) for GW27, Baines for GW28 and a -12 if I also opt for a Liverpool mid in GW28, giving me XI.

The one that's really bugging me is Ibra to Costa this week. He'd play instead of De Roon so I'm not sure it's worth -4. Depends if I wanted to roll with Ibra or Costa after GW28 and whether I think Ibra will ever be rested in the league. FWIW, I'm taking out Lukaku for Kun GW27 when he's at Spurs and then reversing the week after. This is where the additional-8 basically comes from, that bloody Man C DGW!

Surely Kun >Costa, so just Zlatan to Kun is the way to go?

My initial "forward vs Leicester" is a tad compromised as I intend to go Zlatan to Kun, when before Barnes to Niasse (or my cheap mid to Hull attacking mid) was the plan.

[Mav3rick]

I'm impressed you guys are managing a route through with minimal hits. I'm stuck with a -8 if I want Siggy and Kun(c) for GW27, Baines for GW28 and a -12 if I also opt for a Liverpool mid in GW28, giving me XI.

I don't think we're that far apart SK, Aguero will cost me a hit and fielding 10 in GW28 would also cost me a hit, the thing is that the players I might take that hit for are the likes of Robertson/Maguire/Fernandez so I don't know that it's worth it. I don't really want to do those moves until late anyway as injuries, bans or droppings could mean that I miss out on the benefit of the hit anyway. Andy Carroll is a separate potential way to field 10 though, without a hit, as he'd free up the required Philips Sanchez funds, but it depends if I think he's the best budget striker or not at that time.

I see Aguero and the potential Costa move this week as separate decisions, they are just straight up "is this worth the hit" questions that don't change my GW28/29 outcome. If I bring in Costa for a hit, I'd feel that I need to captain him, or vice versa, if I feel that he's the best captain, I would bring him in. Costa does look to have the highest scorer odds this week at 61% (Lukaku second on 59%) https://www.fantasybet.com/blog/bookies ... week-26-2/.

Tricky one.

[jacksosi]

I've been a bit frivolous after a couple of lunchtime pints

Sanchez ️ Mane
Ibra ️ Lukaku (C)
De Gea ️ Jaku
-8

Couldn't decide which I was more worried about not having so got both.
De Gea needed to go as only had Pickford as cover so that could have left me with no GK in 26 or 28.
GW27 Kak ️ Kun (C)
GW28 Kun ️ Kak (C)

[Stemania]

FWIW, I'm taking out Lukaku for Kun GW27 when he's at Spurs and then reversing the week after. This is where the additional-8 basically comes from, that bloody Man C DGW!

Out of interest, why would you not just take whoever remains of Ibra/Costa out for Kun in GW27 and save a hit? Do you need the extra cash for GW28 that Kun benched over Ibra/Costa would give or do you see Ibra/Costa's good fixture in GW27 as worth 4 more points that Lukaku's bad one? Or it that you want to keen one of Ibra/Costa long term and defo not Aguero given his GW29-31 fixtures, or both?

If I bring in Costa for a hit, I'd feel that I need to captain him, or vice versa, if I feel that he's the best captain, I would bring him in. Costa does look to have the highest scorer odds this week at 61% (Lukaku second on 59%) https://www.fantasybet.com/blog/bookies ... week-26-2/.

Tricky one.

I'd just been to a betting site myself. Very close but Costa does seem to very very slightly edge it everywhere. FFS projections slightly edge it to Lukaku, presumably when assists potential/bonus taken into account (or the 4 goal recent form weight). May be a go with the polls one it's that close.

[Mav3rick]

I've not yet looked at the shots stats for Lukaku and Costa, but a hit for a captain instead of Holebas isn't the worst idea in the world.

I suppose the key difference now really is that Aguero is freeing me from the need to captain Ibra next week, however if City were knocked out of the cup, I'd still captain Ibra.

[Sutter Kane]

@stem: I need the money. I think Ibra/costa good fixture is not quite worth 4 points over Lukaku but paramount, the clincher is that I don't want Aguero after GW27. All that is worth 4 points and some. It may be the same situation for you too I assume?? (Leaves me a man short in GW28 too, as I won't be able to afford Baines in GW28 and I'll have work to do to get Sanchez back in for Hazard in GW31)

[icefish]

I´m pretty set on doing the following, pending of course further info, injuries, etc.

GW 26: Sanchez Mane already done.
GW 27: Lukaku Aguero (C)
GW 28: Aguero Lukaku and Eriksen Siggy

That leaves me with 10 players in GW 28 without a hit through the whole ordeal. I think that is pretty reasonable. However I might splash out for a hit if I see something interesting.

I´m rather worried about Phillips and Evans´ game time tbh so will assess that before GW28.

Don´t see the need for adding another City player for the doubles as it would result in a hit or a man short the gameweek after. For me the value of the City double is in the captaincy and by doing that defending myself against the masses.

[Sutter Kane]

That leaves me with 10 players in GW 28 without a hit through the whole ordeal. I think that is pretty reasonable. However I might splash out for a hit if I see something interesting.

Now that's impressive; wish I was in that situation, being able to incorporate Aguero(c) in GW27 with no hits and have 10 men in GW28!

[Mav3rick]

That leaves me with 10 players in GW 28 without a hit through the whole ordeal. I think that is pretty reasonable. However I might splash out for a hit if I see something interesting.

Now that's impressive; wish I was in that situation, being able to incorporate Aguero(c) in GW27 with no hits and have 10 men in GW28!

That is impressive, although there are just as important issues in GW29, where my focus is partly set... I would like to ensure that I have a strong team as possible there too, it's such a tricky balancing act but depending on your squad it's easy to take with one hand what you lose from the other.

[gallus]

I can manage Kun(c) in GW 27 and 9 players in GW 28 for free while keeping Sanchez, but I will have to sell Costa and Hazard. Since they have good fixtures and a dgw of their own coming up I'm not sure that's an optimal route. I think I'll settle for selling Alli.

[Mav3rick]

I can manage Kun(c) in GW 27 and 9 players in GW 28 for free while keeping Sanchez, but I will have to sell Costa and Hazard. Since they have good fixtures and a dgw of their own coming up I'm not sure that's an optimal route. I think I'll settle for selling Alli.

It's a really interesting time of the season, I think the next 3/4 weeks really are a good time for the FPL thinkers. The casuals or "please tell me what to do" type managers are going to find it tough to make good calls for the players they have as each situation (as shown in this thread) is so different. I really don't think you can be spoon fed through this little period of games, which is great.

Of course that doesn't mean that we will all do well, our best laid plans can all be destroyed by bad fortune...

[Joccki_10]

I'm currently sat on 10 players for GW28 (although it's five for EVE-WBA) and am pondering over whether it's worth to do Lukaku to Agüero next week and do the reverse a week later. Wouldn't be for free though, as I'd still like to add a player (probably Firmino or a third striker) to field eleven in GW28 and/or like to get Sterling next week.

Think I've got to line up some options for myself.

For what it's worth, I've decided against Barnes to Costa for a hit this week. If Barnes gets a goal in one of his next three games, I think he will at least equal Costa minus four points over this period. Maybe even an assist will do. [Plus I saw an article on FPL saying Barnes' stats over his last few games were really going upwards.]

I'm not too worried about GW30 and later (money-wise as well as structure-wise). I think it's still too far away to plan for. Everytime I plan something for say five weeks, it gets interrupted in like the second or third week already. So, priorities lay in GW26-28.

[Ruth_NZ]

I can manage Kun(c) in GW 27 and 9 players in GW 28 for free while keeping Sanchez, but I will have to sell Costa and Hazard. Since they have good fixtures and a dgw of their own coming up I'm not sure that's an optimal route. I think I'll settle for selling Alli.

It's a really interesting time of the season, I think the next 3/4 weeks really are a good time for the FPL thinkers. The casuals or "please tell me what to do" type managers are going to find it tough to make good calls for the players they have as each situation (as shown in this thread) is so different. I really don't think you can be spoon fed through this little period of games, which is great.

Of course that doesn't mean that we will all do well, our best laid plans can all be destroyed by bad fortune...

I agree. Please will you now tell me what to do though? I like it when you make the spoon like a choo-choo train.

FFS is a funny place. People (sometimes including the site itself) try to simplify complexities out and end up with unrealistic and misleading pictures that no-one then takes any responsibility for when they don't materialise. But the most annoying thing is when the simplistic view gets lucky.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Currently have 9 players for GW28 and no Man City players and I've used my transfer for this week. I could stretch to 2 Man City players next week and then get 2 extra players in for GW28 at a total cost of -8, or I could go 1 and 1 for no hit or a combination of the two! Current plan is to go Alli - Stirling and Kane - Aguero and then to go Jones to Mawson/Maguire/Olsson and Aguero - Carroll (which would mean carrying Alonso, Stirling and Defoe as my 3 single gw players).

I'm not really happy with this but haven't found a plan I prefer yet. Wouldn't be too disappointed if City lose to Huddersfield and I can then make the 2 City transfers for GW28 instead.

[dino1980]

I've got eight for GW28 & no City/Stoke coverage. Current plan is to just do Costa to Aguero next week and then the week after get another GW28 player in & just run with nine players for no hits. With Siggy/Antonio/Coutinho/Phillips already in place in midfield it'all either be Carroll in for De Roon or, more likely, a Hull defender in for Friend as it helps out defensively in GW30 when Everton play Liverpool away. Kun can be turned into Kane in GW29 with the only loose end being what to do with Phillips after GW28.

[Beerfuelledman]

Anyone considering the TC for Aguero DGW27? Or hoping for better options/fixtures to materialise in GW34/37?

[Mav3rick]

I'm considering it, but I'd rather have it on Sanchez or Ibra with a favourable DGW. It's more the pep rotation than Aguero himself that concerns me, whereas it feels quite safe that Ibra or Sanchez would start both league matches.

Anyway, City haven't got the DGW yet so I'm holding back a little anyway to see what happens.