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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW20 Preview

Transfers and GW20 squads are as detailed above.

Captaining Aguero v Burnley is obvious for the virtual team; my actual team will captain Sanchez.

That means the comparison for GW20 will be: Actual - Valencia, Alonso, Sanchez(c), Phillips, Lukaku [3-5-2] vs Notional - Jones, Pieters, Pogba, Aguero(c), Benteke [3-4-3]. There is another possibility for a big swing this week as each team is captaining a player the other doesn't have.

Both teams could well need their bench: Pieters, Barnes, Mee vs Kante, Barragán, Mee.

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW20 Final Summary

Actual: Valencia(5), Alonso(1), Sanchez(c)(14), Phillips(9), Lukaku(11) vs Notional: Jones(6), Pieters(7), Pogba(3), Aguero(c)(14), Benteke(1). So that's +9 for the actual team this time, mainly thanks to Lukaku. Alli a big plus for both teams. The notional team suffered from the Defoe :arrow: Benteke switch but with the fixtures as they were it was just a logical move that went wrong. Had I been in a 3-4-3 with my actual team I'd have done the same thing and it may well work out in the long run. Anyway...

GW20: Valencia, Alonso, Sanchez(c), Phillips, Lukaku vs Jones, Pieters, Pogba, Aguero(c), Benteke: Total +9 points; Running Total +45 points

It has been a good run over the festive period for my actual team, Alli, Phillips and Lukaku especially have helped the cause. Should I have selected Pieters ahead of Alonso in GW20? Maybe. But his points were quite reliant on a CS whereas Alonso can always get some attacking points even if the CS goes. I think I'd do the same again. In any case, my team looks like it has made the top 50k at last now. About time too. :roll: Hopefully I can keep it there and sneak forward by small increments, that's what I am aiming for over the next 10 weeks or so.

The transfer for my actual team is already done to avoid the risk of a price drop, Sigurdsson :arrow: Antonio. My next planned move will be Evans :arrow: Brunt but I will resist taking a hit to do that unless Evans looks like losing value, I'd bench my WBA defender in GW21 anyway. For the notional team the transfer will be Sigurdsson :arrow: Phillips and this will be backdated to when Phillips was 5.6m. This move also allows the possibility of Benteke :arrow: Giroud or Lukaku for a hit. Whether I will do that will partly depend on the prognosis for Benteke. So, as it stands the squads are:

Actual: Foster, Pickford; Valencia, Alonso, Evans, Mee, Pieters; Antonio, Sanchez, Alli, Hazard, Phillips; Zlatan, Lukaku, Barnes; 1.3m banked (3-5-2)
Notional: Foster, Pickford; Barragán, Jones, Evans, Mee, Pieters; Phillips, Pogba, Alli, Hazard, Kante; Zlatan, Aguero, Benteke; 2.1m banked (3-4-3)

For future reference, the purchase prices for the notional team (where different): Barragán 4.5m, Jones 4.7m, Pogba 8.2m, Phillips 5.6m, Kante 4.8m, Zlatan 11.1m, Aguero 12.8m, Benteke 7.6m.

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW21 Preview

Transfers and GW21 squads are as detailed above. It would have been tempting to switch Benteke out for Giroud in the virtual team but as Benteke is expected to be fit and it would be a -4 I will pass on that.

Captaining Aguero @ Everton is the choice for the virtual team; Barragán is injured so it will deploy a 3-4-3 but preferring Kante over Phillips this week.

My actual team will captain Sanchez @ Swansea and will use a 4-4-2 this week, preferring Mee to Phillips in view of fixtures.

That means the comparison for GW21 will be: Actual - Valencia, Alonso, Antonio, Sanchez(c), Lukaku [4-4-2] vs Notional - Jones, Kante, Pogba, Aguero(c), Benteke [3-4-3]. Again the possibility for a big swing this week as each team is captaining a player the other doesn't have.

Both teams could need their bench, especially if there is any fixture disruption: Barnes, Phillips, Evans vs Phillips, Evans, Barragán.
Last edited by Ruth_NZ on 16 Jan 2017, 01:00, edited 1 time in total.

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

I listened to the FFS Scoutcast tonight. Such is the swing of opinion against Aguero now that I'm not sure how useful this thread will be. He has a stone-cold captain opportunity in GW24, however, and then quite likely a blank in GW26 (at which time I can't see many holding him).

Maybe a big haul will reverse the trend? I will run with this till GW25 anyway and then we'll see. But I suspect there may not be a great deal of point after that.

Edit 14/6: Maybe the Costa situation will change things. That situation may blow over or it may not, it probably depends on how significant a factor the possible China move is in his state of mind. But if the doubt continues there will be a continued flight to the likes of Kane, Lukaku and... Aguero. :lol:

I'm not sure if that's a good or bad thing for me, I think I prefer it when the range of options is wide and there's no template for people to stick on. I was happy without Costa, same as I was happy without Aguero. But the fewer options there are the fewer decisions need to be made and that means there's less room to get an edge.
Last edited by Ruth_NZ on 14 Jan 2017, 10:09, edited 1 time in total.

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asm_fanz
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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by asm_fanz »

FWIW I've enjoyed reading this thread, it doesn't really matter to me if it's not focused on the merits of an Aguero-less team anymore and you focus on your actual team from now on :)

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW21 Final Summary

Actual: Valencia(5), Alonso(21), Antonio(15), Sanchez(c)(22), Lukaku(5) vs Notional: Jones(2), Kante(3), Pogba(2), Aguero(c)(4), Benteke(2). So that's a huge +55 for the actual team. I will continue with this until GW25 because City have some high-potential fixtures upcoming but I really think the writing is on the wall now for all to see. Aguero spent half of today's game on the left wing (much as Lewandowski did in Pep's first season at Bayern) and much of the rest of it deeper than KDB and Sterling. He's off penalties as well as far as anyone can tell and has certainly moved far away from essential status.

Anyway, my thoughts about the matter are posted in another thread if anyone is interested.

viewtopic.php?f=18&t=122730&p=3004778#p3004778

So...GW21: Valencia, Alonso, Sanchez(c), Antonio, Lukaku vs Jones, Kante, Pogba, Aguero(c), Benteke: Total +55 points; Running Total +100 points

It has been a good recent run for my actual team, 98 points this week and into the top 20k. Sigurdsson :arrow: Antonio (last week's transfer) was an immediate success but what pleases me more is that it was a long-term move that has worked. I wanted Antonio to be a set-and-forget component of my midfield for the next 8-10 weeks (until I wildcard) and the evidence is he will fulfil that role well as long as injury doesn't intervene. He will be even more important to West Ham with Payet apparently on the way out of the club.

The transfer for this week was planned to be be Evans :arrow: Brunt but I am not sure about Brunt's fitness right now. I may also consider switching Mee out for Coleman or Baines. That decision can wait anyhow, no need to rush with it. For the notional team the transfer will be Benteke :arrow: Lukaku and this will be done before any price changes, there is exact budget for it. So, as it stands the squads are:

Actual: Foster, Pickford; Valencia, Alonso, Evans, Mee, Pieters; Antonio, Sanchez, Alli, Hazard, Phillips; Zlatan, Lukaku, Barnes; 1.3m banked (3-5-2) and 1 FT available
Notional: Foster, Pickford; Barragán, Jones, Evans, Mee, Pieters; Phillips, Pogba, Alli, Hazard, Kante; Zlatan, Lukaku, Aguero; 0.0m banked (3-4-3)

For future reference, the purchase prices for the notional team (where different): Barragán 4.5m, Jones 4.7m, Pogba 8.2m, Phillips 5.6m, Kante 4.8m, Zlatan 11.1m, Aguero 12.8m, Lukaku 9.5m.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by cesc408 »

No doubt the lack of Aguero selection for a lot of teams will dent this thread from the usefulness what it could have been.

Against Burnley was the 1st time in ages I had gone into a gameweek which he was available and i hadn't owned him, and I felt that slightly "Should I really be going down this route without him moment". Him being benched was a relief, my only surprise was City were again so poor and I new come HT he would be on. Got his goal.

Yesterday though Vs Everton was a complete different story. Saw him named in the line up (expected) on twitter and the thought of not owning him didn't even worry me.
The performance from City was ridiculously poor that Everton looked pretty decent. Apart from a couple of long balls floated over the Everton defence MC offered nothing in attack.

We saw him unexpectedly benched Vs Everton at home, in which he came on to miss a penalty, and recently as mentioned Vs Burnley. With City aiming to do well in the champions league the possibility of being benched in future BPL games shouldnt be ignored. Adding in the possibility of him being behind others on penalty duties 12.8 just seems too much, especially when other striking options are returning points.

Would be more interesting if he was priced around the Kane/Ibra price bracket. Even then though with the others being almost guaranteed starters and 1st choice penalty takers, In this situation right now I would find it hard to put Aguero ahead of any of them.

"Guaranteed a hattrick against Spurs now this GW"

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by samyadav »

cesc408 wrote:
Yesterday though Vs Everton was a complete different story. Saw him named in the line up (expected) on twitter and the thought of not owning him didn't even worry me.
It was Everton vs Manchester Shitty :D (i am sorry City supporters)

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW22 Transfer Update

Mee :arrow: Baines has been done, Baines is due a rise (possibly tonight) and there's no point in missing it. I considered a lot of options but eventually it came down to Coleman or Baines and though Coleman has slightly better attacking threat overall, Baines' penalties have to swing the balance. It has been a long time since I had Sir Leighton in my team.:!: Mee has done well for me recently but Burnley's fixtures aren't the greatest and I will take the risk of not being able to cover a Heaton CS.

That move completes my switch to a 3-5-2 with a heavy defence. Valencia, Alonso and Baines will start this week for me unless a training injury intervenes; I am determined to improve my defender PPG. Hopefully I can save FT next week, by rolling a FT for a while I should be able to protect against eventualities because my squad isn't super flexible (although it does have a solid bench).

For the notional team the transfer was Benteke :arrow: Lukaku as described above. So, as it stands the squads are:

Actual: Foster, Pickford; Valencia, Alonso, Baines, Evans, Pieters; Antonio, Sanchez, Alli, Hazard, Phillips; Zlatan, Lukaku, Barnes; 0.3m banked (3-5-2)
Notional: Foster, Pickford; Barragán, Jones, Mee, Evans, Pieters; Phillips, Pogba, Alli, Hazard, Kante; Zlatan, Lukaku, Aguero; 0.0m banked (3-4-3)

For future reference, the purchase prices for the notional team (where different): Barragán 4.5m, Jones 4.7m, Mee 4.5m, Pogba 8.2m, Phillips 5.6m, Kante 4.8m, Zlatan 11.1m, Aguero 12.8m, Lukaku 9.5m.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by PleasedToMichu »

Ruth; Thank you for taking the time for all this. Must be the best documented experiment from, at the time, a wild suggestion - good job

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

asm_fanz wrote:FWIW I've enjoyed reading this thread, it doesn't really matter to me if it's not focused on the merits of an Aguero-less team anymore and you focus on your actual team from now on :)
PleasedToMichu wrote:Ruth; Thank you for taking the time for all this. Must be the best documented experiment from, at the time, a wild suggestion - good job
Thanks both. :)

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ironfist »

Ruth_NZ wrote: Actual: Foster, Pickford; Valencia, Alonso, Baines, Evans, Pieters; Antonio, Sanchez, Alli, Hazard, Phillips; Zlatan, Lukaku, Barnes; 0.3m banked (3-5-2)
Notional: Foster, Pickford; Barragán, Jones, Mee, Evans, Pieters; Phillips, Pogba, Alli, Hazard, Kante; Zlatan, Lukaku, Aguero; 0.0m banked (3-4-3)
Interesting topic, though imho slightly skewed.
Why? Your management of the Notional team doesn't feel 'all guns blazing'' ie best effort from you! It actually feels very experimental and risk-loving more than you would have done with any real team. I have seen you play this game for a while now, and the composition of that team is wayyyy too risky, with or without Aguero. The side by side inclusion of Barragán & Mee, Pogba & Kante; [Zlatan, Lukaku, Aguero] & 3 heavyweight strikers is not something you would have fielded even if you lost a bet forcing you to carry Aguero all season long. Popular picks are missing from that team in all areas, division of funds is uncharacteristic (of you or most FISOers)... I think we're being cheated here of a very decent experiment. :)

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Ironfist wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote: Actual: Foster, Pickford; Valencia, Alonso, Baines, Evans, Pieters; Antonio, Sanchez, Alli, Hazard, Phillips; Zlatan, Lukaku, Barnes; 0.3m banked (3-5-2)
Notional: Foster, Pickford; Barragán, Jones, Mee, Evans, Pieters; Phillips, Pogba, Alli, Hazard, Kante; Zlatan, Lukaku, Aguero; 0.0m banked (3-4-3)
Interesting topic, though imho slightly skewed. Why? Your management of the Notional team doesn't feel like an 'all guns blazing'' best effort from you! It actually feels very experimental and risk-loving more than you would have done with any real team. I have seen you play this game for a while now, and the composition of that team is wayy too risky, with or without Aguero. The side by side inclusion of Barragán & Mee, Pogba & Kante; [Zlatan, Lukaku, Aguero] & 3 heavyweight strikers is not something you would have fielded even if you lost a bet forcing you to carry Aguero all season long. Popular picks are missing from that team in all areas, division of funds is uncharacteristic (of you or most FISOers)... I think we're being cheated here of a very decent experiment. :)
Well, I have a number of things to say about this if you have the time to read them. And then I'll have a proposition for you. :)

In General

The first is that I have felt similar to what you have said about it not being "all guns blazing". Quite often I have thought, would you really do that? And the answer is, "no, I would dump (or not bring back) Aguero". :? It's very tricky to run a virtual team when the strategy is opposite to the one you think is best.

So what I have done is to stick to certain principles. I was of the view that a cheap 5-man rotation in defence was the best way to accommodate an expensive attack so I have stuck to that. It may not be FISO fashion but I don't hold with having an Amat type in my defence, I want 5 starters I can use; even now when my actual team has Valencia, Alonso and Baines it still has Evans and Pieters as the other two defenders and I will still use them sometimes. That's just how I do it. I have also attempted to replicate moves made with my actual team where possible so that there wasn't a false difference. But it looks like a huge difference nevertheless because as it stands now I have Barnes in my own team against Aguero in the notional team. That means my actual team has 8.4m more budget to spread around the other 14 slots. 8.4m is huge, even now that is between 20% and 25% of the 'free' budget. It's not surprising that the rest of my actual team looks way better.

On your specific comments, if you look at my real team now the "division of funds is uncharacteristic" and "popular picks are missing" too. :!: I have 26.5m invested in defenders, that's not usual for a team structured for 3-5-2. I never got Eriksen, brought in Alli instead when most everyone was saying the opposite, never had a Spurs defender, never had an Arsenal defender, never had any City player other than Aguero, brought in Antonio when not a popular pick, same with Lukaku (when people were selling) same with Zlatan (he fell 0.2 in the 2 weeks after I got him). I don't do the conventional or popular things unless I think they are right. That's just how I approach FPL.

Obviously I spend quite a bit of time (sometimes) on my own team and that throws up options, or a 'watchlist' if you like. I have used that for the notional team and in that sense it has always been players I was considering that have been brought in.

In Specific

So, let's go through all the transfers made for the virtual team and the rationale behind them...

GW11 Valencia :arrow: Francis, Walcott :arrow: Coutinho. Well, the second of these was mirrored with my actual team so we can ignore it (and it was successful anyway in that Coutinho scored 11 points that week). The Francis transfer was a direct consequence of having Aguero rather than Zlatan and he did very well in actual fact - he was in the notional team for 7 weeks, was used in 5 of those weeks (as is appropriate for a rotation defender) and delivered 6-pointers in 3 of those 5 weeks.

GW12 Payet :arrow: Hazard, Allen :arrow: Kante. The Hazard move mirrored what I did with my actual team so no need to comment. The Allen downgrade was necessary to accommodate that. Allen was my 5th midfielder in a 3-4-3 at that time and I replaced him with a cheaper one. I guess that some would have chosen De Roon and saved 0.5m but at the time I was already thinking about the Xmas timetable and thought Kante would be a good bench option (being that Chelsea had the most advantageous timetable). It was a genuine decision anyhow.

GW13 Sanchez :arrow: Firmino, Bolasie :arrow: Sigurdsson. This was the Sanchez-gate week when I removed him because of injury doubts. I took a hit with both teams (actual and notional) and the players brought in were the same for both teams. So nothing to be said really, removing Alexis was a mistake that affected both sides of the comparison.

GW14 Lukaku :arrow: Zlatan, Coutinho :arrow: Alli . Again, hits were taken for both teams because of the Coutinho injury. Zlatan was already in my actual team; Alli arrived in my actual team a couple of weeks later. Both have done very well so nothing to question there.

GW15 Aguero :arrow: Kane, Bony :arrow: Defoe. This was the week where a major divergence occurred and it was out of my control because Aguero was sent off and got a 4-game ban. Both the actual and notional teams took a hit but whereas for the actual team it involved bringing Sanchez back, in the notional team that couldn't be done without at least a -8 because Aguero needed dealing with. I had brought Kane into my actual team the week before so that move was replicating what I had already done. And I removed Bony from both teams that week, it was really needed.

GW16 Saved FT with the notional team; Alli was brought into the actual team (again balancing both sides).

GW17 Koné :arrow: Jones, Firmino :arrow: Pogba. Another good defender transfer I think. The actual team did Koné :arrow: Valencia and Jones has pretty much matched his more expensive colleague since. The Pogba move was one I was considering for my actual team as well but didn't want to take a hit for. For the virtual team it was a FT.

GW18 Francis :arrow: Barragán. The Barragán move was just unfortunate. He had started every game since the season began but got injured 2 games later. Nothing to do about that. Boro have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 games since that move so buying a Boro defender for the rotation was a great decision. It was just unlucky to pick the one that got injured.

GW19 Kane :arrow: Aguero. Kane was falling in price and had been removed from the actual team a week before. Obviously it's not a move I would have done because I don't intend to bring back Aguero till 2nd wildcard (unless he has an earlier DGW) but that's kind of the point of this comparison.

GW20 Defoe :arrow: Benteke. Obviously not a move that worked out well but one I had been considering for my actual team before switching to 3-5-2. Benteke had Swansea(h) at the start of a good fixture run for Palace. He was fouled (and injured) in the box towards the end of the first half but the referee didn't give a penalty (much to Big Sam's disgust). And then he had to be withdrawn at half time. It could easily have been very different.

GW21 Sigurdsson :arrow: Phillips. Again a sensible move and it mirrored the acquisition of Phillips by the actual team the previous week.

So, what can be said about all that, Erez? I think I have played by the rules I set myself to try to make the comparison fair. It's true that I didn't switch to 2 forwards with the Aguero team but that's because I think Zlatan and Kane/Lukaku are very good picks - I must do because that's what I have had in my actual team. The price has mainly been paid in defence, especially by the absence of Alonso, and to some degree in midfield by not bringing Sanchez back. But that's the cost of Aguero, both in terms of price and of the necessity to use 2 FTs to remove him and then re-buy him. It has been the best I can do in other words.

Proposition

So, here it is... Why don't you take over the virtual team? Take it out of my hands completely? I haven't wanted a skewed comparison and if that will make it more trustworthy I am fine with that idea. I will even give you an extra FT so you can lose Kante for De Roon for free and have 0.5m banked if you like, I guess that was the most questionable decision I made.

I'm open either way. :)

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ironfist »

This is a very generous offer, to partake in your widely followed experiment and I'm not entirely sure my acumen is worthy of such honour. More than that, I find my time this season very limited what with RL commitments and there is no chance I can match your detailed analysis as demonstrated above. Thus I must decline and limit my involvement to sideline catcalls, by your kind permission.
As for your explanation above... while I understand you are trying to follow a set of 'self-inflicted' (imposed) rules, this season has been less than accomodating for a rigid mind set, even for the sake of such an experiment. An artificial rejigging of the notional team would not be too different than the constant hits taken by most FPL managers this season or in fact the WC available to most teams. It would be unrealistic to play with one hinderemce, ie Aguero, let alone deprive your team management of what all other managers (and you too) are doing to keep up (with your other team).
As for the actual team... other than Alli and to a lesser degree Hazard & Philips, you must bring in some more 'popular' choices, at least judged by the rate they are being bought in the last 2-3 GWs such as Alonso, Antonio or Giroud. For the sake of the experiment's realism, you need to steer closer to the average picks... all IM-very-HO.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Ironfist wrote:This is a very generous offer, to partake in your widely followed experiment and I'm not entirely sure my acumen is worthy of such honour. More than that, I find my time this season very limited what with RL commitments and there is no chance I can match your detailed analysis as demonstrated above. Thus I must decline and limit my involvement to sideline catcalls, by your kind permission.

As for your explanation above... while I understand you are trying to follow a set of 'self-inflicted' (imposed) rules, this season has been less than accommodating for a rigid mind set, even for the sake of such an experiment. An artificial rejigging of the notional team would not be too different than the constant hits taken by most FPL managers this season or in fact the WC available to most teams. It would be unrealistic to play with one hinderance, ie Aguero, let alone deprive your team management of what all other managers (and you too) are doing to keep up (with your other team).

As for the actual team... other than Alli and to a lesser degree Hazard & Philips, you must bring in some more 'popular' choices, at least judged by the rate they are being bought in the last 2-3 GWs such as Alonso, Antonio or Giroud. For the sake of the experiment's realism, you need to steer closer to the average picks.
Yes, but Ironfist...

It is true that Alonso, Alli, Zlatan, Phillips, Lukaku, Antonio and so on have become more popular since I bought them. But they weren't that popular when I bought them, in fact most of them were fairly static on transfers or were being sold. I don't stick close to the average picks, that isn't my style. For example Stanislas... I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole. If I wanted a Bournemouth midfielder (not a bad idea) it would be Wilshere. If I am to run a comparison it has to be done on the basis of my style of play, not someone else's. :? Giroud, by the way, has never featured in either the actual or notional team.

There could be a case for saying that 3-4-3 with Aguero-Zlatan-Lukaku is overkill. But the notional team had Defoe and Benteke as 3rd striker before that. Those that have gone cheaper have just got in knots. 3-5-2 might be better but that would take surgery and hits. I could have begun that this week (for GW22) but that would have meant missing Lukaku when the cash was there to get him. I don't think bringing Lukaku in can be said to be an odd idea.

As for the hits, I have actually taken some with both the actual and notional teams. But I try to avoid them, especially in the mid-period of the season (now). Hits at this stage are either a result of poor planning or bad luck (injury/suspension) in my view.

Similarly, the absence of a premium defender in the notional team is reasonable given the need to include Aguero. If you look at how the cheap defender rotation has worked for the notional team it has been fine actually apart from the bad luck with Barragán.

I think the comparison has been fair myself. I haven't cheated. I have only used players that were on my actual watchlist. I have replicated the actual team in the notional team (and vice-versa) where possible so as not to create unnecessary differentials that would introduce more variance. I am content that the Aguero team has done worse because of Aguero. One thing I would add, however. There is no way that I would have captained Aguero as often as I have done if the notional team were my actual team. But that's because I don't think he is captainable, which is where this all began. Had I not captained him for the notional team when he got a haul I could equally have been accused of gerrymandering the outcome.

I look forward to more sideline catcalls from you anyway. :) This one has been useful in that it made me go back over what I had done with the notional team, as a result of which I am actually more confident that the comparison has been a fair one. :mrgreen:

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW22 Preview

I am going to give the virtual team a free switch from Barragán to Chambers. When I took Barragán for that team it was because he had been nailed all season and had slightly better attack threat. Unfortunately he got injured 2 weeks later. It was just unlucky but I don't want the comparison to be too much affected by luck so I will put Chambers in instead. That means the GW22 squads are:

Actual: Foster, Pickford; Valencia, Alonso, Baines, Evans, Pieters; Antonio, Sanchez, Alli, Hazard, Phillips; Zlatan, Lukaku, Barnes; 0.3m banked (3-5-2)
Notional: Foster, Pickford; Chambers, Jones, Mee, Evans, Pieters; Phillips, Pogba, Alli, Hazard, Kante; Zlatan, Lukaku, Aguero; 0.0m banked (3-4-3)

My actual team will be in a 3-5-2 this week with Hazard(c). Baines is only a slight doubt so Evans (who is a bigger doubt) will be 1st sub. For the virtual team it will be a 3-4-3. Hopefully Evans will start because Pieters and Mee on the bench don't have great fixtures. Aguero has a super record against Spurs but Spurs are in great form while City are in a mess. Aguero is very low on the FFS poll so Hazard will be the captain for the virtual team as well.

That means the comparison for GW22 will be: Actual - Valencia, Alonso, Baines, Antonio, Sanchez [3-5-2] vs Notional - Chambers, Jones, Evans, Pogba, Aguero [3-4-3]. Both teams could need their bench: Evans, Barnes, Pieters vs Kante, Pieters, Mee.

For future reference, the purchase prices for the notional team (where different):Chambers 4.5m, Jones 4.7m, Mee 4.5m, Pogba 8.2m, Phillips 5.6m, Kante 4.8m, Zlatan 11.1m, Aguero 12.8m, Lukaku 9.5m.[/quote]

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW23 Transfers

I have moved early because of the continuing uncertainty with Evans' fitness. I need him to play next week and as he is due to lose value tonight I have decided to replace him now. With only 0.3m to play with it's not easy, Brunt is tantalisingly 0.2m out of reach. :( I considered Schlupp, Dawson (WBA) and Prödl, all would work with my rotation pretty well. But I'm not super keen on continuing to double on WBA (Foster being my only GK). In the end I have settled on Funes Mori, which will allow me to double on Everton in some games - Everton have good fixtures and Koeman is a manager I trust defensively. And Funes Mori does have some goal threat.

Meanwhile, I am going to give the virtual team another free switch, Kante to Swansea's Carroll. That 'corrects' what was possibly the most contentious transfer I made earlier for the notional team and it allows Evans to be upgraded to Brunt. So the means the GW23 squads will be:

Actual: Foster, Pickford; Valencia, Funes Mori, Alonso, Baines, Pieters; Antonio, Sanchez, Alli, Hazard, Phillips; Zlatan, Lukaku, Barnes; 0.2m banked (3-5-2)
Notional: Foster, Pickford; Chambers, Jones, Mee, Brunt, Pieters; Pogba, Carroll, Alli, Hazard, Phillips; Zlatan, Lukaku, Aguero; 0.0m banked (3-4-3)

For future reference, the purchase prices for the notional team (where different):Chambers 4.5m, Jones 4.7m, Mee 4.5m, Brunt 5.0m, Pogba 8.2m, Phillips 5.6m, Carroll 4.2m, Zlatan 11.1m, Aguero 12.8m, Lukaku 9.5m.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW22 Final Summary

Actual - Valencia(2), Alonso(6), Baines(6), Antonio(5), Sanchez(8) [3-5-2] vs Notional - Chambers(5), Jones(4), Pieters(4), Pogba(2), Aguero(2) [3-4-3]. Pieters replaced the injured Evans for the notional team. So that's +10 for the actual team.

So...GW22: Valencia, Alonso, Baines, Sanchez, Antonio vs Chambers, Jones, Pieters, Pogba, Aguero: Total +10 points; Running Total +110 points

It was a somewhat rare (c) fail for me this week but it only cost me 5 points against Sanchez. A tale of 2 penalties (one given, one not) really. Anyway, a small red arrow and down to 21k in the OR.

Transfers and squads for GW23 are as above. I am going to take a few days off from FPL and re-assess after that, I can feel a tendency to take some unnecessary hits coming on and I need to walk away. :shock: I can take one price drop on Hazard before my sale price is affected and doubtless the market will slow over the next week. My inclination right now is to hold him; even if it's a triple fall (which I somehow doubt) then I will only have lost 0.1m in actual value.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

I am going to 'hide' this in my RMT because I don't want to make a big deal of it. But I have run a comparison between Hazard this season and in 2014/15 when he scored 233 FPL points and was POTY. The results are a bit surprising. Averages per game:

Touches (final third): 16/17 43.1; 14/15 47.6
Touches (penalty box): 16/17 5.5; 14/15 7.3
Goal attempts: 16/17 2.3; 14/15 2.1
Goal attempts (in box): 16/17 1.6; 14/15 1.4
Shots on target: 16/17 1.0; 14/15 0.9
Shooting accuracy: 16/17 42.9%; 14/15 42.1%
Crosses: 16/17 2.9; 14/15 1.6
Chances created: 16/17 2.0; 14/15 2.6
Corners taken: 16/17 1.2; 14/15 0.2

What strikes me about those numbers is how close they are. The lower number for penalty box touches is a concern but it is balanced by slightly higher numbers for goal attempts, attempts in the box and shots on target. So, if Hazard's stats are that close to the season when he was the highest scoring FPL player (Aguero was next best) and he is playing really well according to most/all observers then the points should come, shouldn't they?

As I said in my previous post, my inclination is to keep him. Even a triple price fall will only cost me 0.1m and it would mean a hit to remove him (Eriksen would be the obvious replacement). I have run a comparison for this season with Eriksen as well and Hazard beats him on every key stat apart from chance creation. Eriksen does have many set pieces but Hazard has penalties to compensate. If Chelsea get awarded any that is, so far they only have 2 in 22 games.

Anyway, I find all of this quite comforting. I kind of expected to find Hazard way down on his 2014/15 levels (he isn't) and behind Eriksen on this season's stats (he isn't). Hazard has a pretty good record against Liverpool and Arsenal and after that the fixtures are great. I'll be running the risk of going against the tide but I think he can be kept.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by gallus »

2.1 shots and 0.9 shots on target are actually horrible stats for his price. So the real question for me is, what if the 14/15 was a freak season and 180 points for the season is what we should realistically expect from him? And another question - how much does Hazard rely on penalties to score points? How many penalties did he score in 14/15 and how many last year? And what is the league average?

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Paulista »

gallus wrote:how much does Hazard rely on penalties to score points? How many penalties did he score in 14/15 and how many last year? And what is the league average?
Not sure where to find league averages, but some Hazard stats from recent seasons (league only) -

12/13 - 31+3 appearances, 9 goals, 2 penalties. (Another 5 scored by Lampard, 1 from Oscar, 1 from Torres).
13/14 - 35 appearances, 14 goals, 4 penalties. (Another 1 scored by Lampard).
14/15 - 38 appearances, 14 goals, 3 penalties. (Another 1 scored by Costa).
15/16 - 25+6 appearances, 4 goals, 0 penalties (Another 2 scored by Fabregas, 1 from Oscar, 1 from Pato).
16/17 - 21 appearances, 9 goals, 2 penalties.

That gives 22% of his goals from penalties.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

gallus wrote:The real question for me is, what if the 14/15 was a freak season and 180 points for the season is what we should realistically expect from him?
He scored 202 FPL points in 13/14 from 3 less starts. And 190 in 12/13 from 7 less starts. It would be quite surprising if he was below 200 this season (assuming no injury).
gallus wrote:And another question - how much does Hazard rely on penalties to score points? How many penalties did he score in 14/15 and how many last year? And what is the league average?
Paulista answered the Hazard element. I'll deal with the league stats for penalties:

2016/17 - 72 (Average 0.16 per team/game) after 220 games
2015/16 - 91 (Average 0.12 per team/game)
2014/15 - 83 (Average 0.11 per team/game)
2013/14 - 87 (Average 0.11 per team/game)
2012/13 - 83 (Average 0.11 per team/game)
2011/12 - 99 (Average 0.13 per team/game)

Penalties are up this season but some teams have benefited much more than others. The average is 3.6 penalties per team. Spurs, City and Liverpool have had 6. Chelsea have had 2. United have only had 1.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by math! »

Ruth_NZ wrote:As I said in my previous post, my inclination is to keep him. Even a triple price fall will only cost me 0.1m and it would mean a hit to remove him (Eriksen would be the obvious replacement). I have run a comparison for this season with Eriksen as well and Hazard beats him on every key stat apart from chance creation. Eriksen does have many set pieces but Hazard has penalties to compensate. If Chelsea get awarded any that is, so far they only have 2 in 22 games.

Anyway, I find all of this quite comforting. I kind of expected to find Hazard way down on his 2014/15 levels (he isn't) and behind Eriksen on this season's stats (he isn't). Hazard has a pretty good record against Liverpool and Arsenal and after that the fixtures are great. I'll be running the risk of going against the tide but I think he can be kept.
It's nice to see someone else who shares my sentiment. If I had any reservations about the Liverpool game it's what impact Matip will have. Any Pool fans I know seem to agree that he is by far their best CB.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

math! wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote:I think he can be kept.
It's nice to see someone else who shares my sentiment. If I had any reservations about the Liverpool game it's what impact Matip will have. Any Pool fans I know seem to agree that he is by far their best CB.
Well, just for clarity, what I wrote isn't meant to be a bullish endorsement. If I could do Hazard :arrow: KDB or Alli for a FT then I would. But I already had Alli for a long time and I can't afford the change to KDB (who I'd only take for 3 weeks anyway).

I think there are good grounds to suppose that the points will come with Hazard. But Liverpool @ Anfield has never been a happy fixture for Chelsea and Arsenal @ the Bridge could well be a tight game. I wouldn't object to losing Hazard for those; neither do I object to keeping him.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Weisenwolf »

Very interesting thread; particularly as I still have Aguero.

I wonder whether BP's could explain the reduced points for Hazard this season; he does have a lot of competition?

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Weisenwolf wrote:Very interesting thread; particularly as I still have Aguero. I wonder whether BP's could explain the reduced points for Hazard this season; he does have a lot of competition?
I don't know really. Hard to say.

2013/14 202 points from 35 starts - 14 goals, 10 assists. Of those 202 points, 15 were BPs.
2014/15 233 points from 38 starts - 14 goals, 10 assists. Of those 233 points, 42 were BPs.
2016/17 129 points from 21 starts - 9 goals 5 assists. Of the 129 points, 17 have been from BPs.

If you pro rata this season's numbers, Hazard is on track for 227 points with 30 BPs. Kind of in the middle between the other two seasons. I would expect that because in 2014/15 such was Chelsea's reliance on Hazard, especially in the 2nd half of that season, that he often got BPs for just one assist.

I have to say, I am finding the Hazard decision very tricky indeed. :|

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

I think the EFL results probably mean I'll keep Hazard.

One reason is that Pogba will probably blank GW26. That wouldn't have mattered had Southampton not beaten Liverpool, meaning Arsenal will probably have a blank GW26 as well. I say probably because the possibility exists that the postponed games will be GW26 midweek but I don't think that likely.

That means I will probably remove Sanchez in GW26. My purchase price is 11.5m so I'd sell at 11.7m. If he has a blank GW26 & 28 then he may well lose more than the 0.2m difference. There would then be a natural switch from Hazard :arrow: Sanchez in GW31 although DGW planning will also be involved by that stage.

It's all very uncertain because of the FA Cup. But I think I'm better not adding a United player anyhow.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Oxford NZ »

As we are moving off topic a bit and Hazard is taking over ATM I don't mind bringing him up again. :mrgreen:
I am a Chelsea follower and love Hazard as a player, but as a manager in FFL he is frustrating. I keep him in my team because I expect he will do the impossible each week and am then disappointed. :oops:
I think in my heart that Chelsea will go to Anfield and get three points with a clean sheet this week, Costa and Hazard goals with assists from Hazard and Cahill, Clean sheet for Cahill.
It could happen but my head says Anfield, boogie team, could be 2-1 in the favour of the home team. Hazard gets an assist and Costa gets a goal and Cahill gets a duck and a yellow card. Not an Ideal scenario but -

back OT Aguero He builds cards quicker than points, is unreliable but prolific when on form. I may come to regret selling him in GW14 but I doubt it.
It think Aguero is done in the PL and will be looking for a transfer next opportunity.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Well, it's my RMT thread so I guess I can diverge?

I don't expect to continue with the Aguero account after GW25, with a blank in GW26 almost everyone will sell anyway. Plus we will be nearing the time when I'll consider bringing Aguero in, I always said I might do so when the DGWs come around. That will be 16 weeks anyway, almost half a season and enough to make some kind of appraisal.

I'm still not 100% decided on Hazard. I think I'll wait to see what happens in the FA Cup this weekend and make a final decision after that.

Edit 29/1: Hazard has just fallen, meaning I have lost 0.1m and the next fall is free. That settles the matter for me, he stays for GW23 at least. The reasons I decided to let it go that way:
(i) Both my options were unattractive, Eriksen because he lacks sufficient goal threat and does so much of his best work outside the box (though he does have a top record against Sunderland), Pogba because of the GW26 blank (although I do fancy he'll do well in the next 3 games). Neither were worth a hit in my view.
(ii) I will probably need/want to lose either Sanchez or Zlatan in GW26. Assuming both have blanks in GW28 as well then it will likely be Sanchez that is sacrificed: blank-liv-blank-wba-MCI wouldn't be a run of fixtures to encourage me to keep him. But I could see myself wanting him from GW31 and Hazard :arrow: Sanchez could work well at that time. Hazard's fixtures from GW26-30 are excellent (though he'd likely have one blank in there).
(iii) I was at the Brentford game today and we had seats just behind the dugout. I was able to observe that Chelsea are a very happy camp and are also very focused. Hazard was benched for Tuesday. Liverpool will doubtless be better but aren't in the best form, maybe Klopp has run them into the ground a bit? Anyway, I don't mind having Hazard in that game. Maybe it will suit him actually. But I'm happy to roll those dice.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW23 Preview

Transfers are as detailed above. That means the GW23 squads are:

Actual: Foster, Pickford; Valencia, Funes Mori, Alonso, Baines, Pieters; Antonio, Sanchez, Alli, Hazard, Phillips; Zlatan, Lukaku, Barnes; 0.2m banked (3-5-2)
Notional: Foster, Pickford; Chambers, Jones, Mee, Brunt, Pieters; Pogba, Carroll, Alli, Hazard, Phillips; Zlatan, Lukaku, Aguero; 0.0m banked (3-4-3)

For future reference, the purchase prices for the notional team (where different) are: Chambers 4.5m, Jones 4.7m, Mee 4.5m, Brunt 5.0m, Pogba 8.2m, Phillips 5.6m, Carroll 4.2m, Zlatan 11.1m, Aguero 12.8m, Lukaku 9.5m.

My actual team will be in a 3-5-2 this week but there are some selection issues.

First is whether to play Alonso or Funes Mori in defence. My instinct is that Everton have a better clean sheet chance @ Stoke than Chelsea do @ Anfield. I double-checked with the bookies' clean sheet odds; they favour Everton too. And I also checked with recent stats; Everton and Chelsea have arguably been the best defences in the PL over the last few weeks and it's hard to split them very clearly, some numbers favour one and some the other. But Liverpool are still clearly one of the better attacking teams whereas Stoke aren't; Liverpool have had almost twice as many SoTs as Stoke over the last 4 weeks. Alonso does have more attacking threat but Funes Mori is well capable of nicking a set piece goal; in any case clean sheets come first where defenders are concerned. So I am going for Funes Mori and the Everton double-up.

The other is Barnes v Leicester; he has been playing well for Burnley and could easily get into my team. But I prefer to bench him rather than Antonio v City.

Captaincy for my actual team is tricky; Sanchez (WAT), Zlatan (HUL) and Alli (sun) are all options. At the moment it will be Zlatan but I'll make a final decision after the Sunday FA Cup games.

For the virtual team it will be a 3-4-3 and selection is fairly simple. Aguero's games from GW23-25 are attractive and he's in the top 5 of the FFS poll. He'll be the captain this week and probably for the next 2 weeks as well. So there will be a bigger swing potential over the next games with different captains in the actual and virtual teams.

That means the comparison for GW23 will be: Actual - Valencia, Funes Mori, Baines, Antonio, Sanchez, Zlatan [3-5-2] vs Notional - Jones, Mee, Brunt, Pogba, Aguero(x2) [3-4-3]. Both teams could need their bench: Barnes, Alonso, Pieters vs Carroll, Pieters, Chambers. After giving the notional team a FT to replace the unfortunate Barragán, the replacement (Chambers) gets an injury the week after. :roll: I am glad that saga isn't happening with my actual team.

If I do change anything before deadline I will update these details.

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