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STC - Statistical Thought Cave

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baganboy
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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by baganboy »

RISK!

I can let go of KDB now, or later. I bought his at 10.6, and will miss the 0.1M rise if I let his price fall tonight.
My experiences last week tell me that the 0.1M is really useful.
However, what if Ozil / Sterling (who both have midweek matches) get injured during the CL matches?

I am considering, for that reason, to do the KDB transfer out move today, but instead of my apparent first two preferences (Ozil / Sterling), change to Mane - my third preference, who does not have a midweek match, and greater chances of being fit during the weekend.

Is that absolutely rubbish logic to use?

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by First Sub Podcast »

For the sake of 0.1mil then yes. Ask yourself if 0.1mil in team value is worth the frustration of a Mane blank and seeing Ozil or Sterling smash the points in?

I'd wait until Thursday in your position.

I have similar issues in that to get Sanchez I need a fund raising move. However both Baines and Shaw are flagged, so is my potential replacement Lovren. Awaiting news on all 3 before I make a move.

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by gallus »

baganboy wrote:
Is that absolutely rubbish logic to use?
yes. get the player you want, and do it now. the extra 0.1 might save you a hit later in the season.

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by MPTree »

baganboy wrote:RISK!

I can let go of KDB now, or later. I bought his at 10.6, and will miss the 0.1M rise if I let his price fall tonight.
My experiences last week tell me that the 0.1M is really useful.
However, what if Ozil / Sterling (who both have midweek matches) get injured during the CL matches?

I am considering, for that reason, to do the KDB transfer out move today, but instead of my apparent first two preferences (Ozil / Sterling), change to Mane - my third preference, who does not have a midweek match, and greater chances of being fit during the weekend.

Is that absolutely rubbish logic to use?
Taking a lesser pick for the sake of a 0.1 doesn't seem right to me. Bringing in a much desired player because he'd be 0.1 out of reach if you didn't act is perfectly defensible. Bringing in a player early to save yourself a drop (or catch a rise) is risky, but OK in the early season where building TV is more important. Waiting for the CL games to be played is the most sensible move, especially being without WC, unless you have a specific plan for the 0.1. It's never easy taking a drop on a player, but you can afford all your replacements easily enough and presumably don't have any plans for the 0.1 other than "it'd be nice to have more money"?

I think I'd sit tight if I were you.

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by Mav3rick »

Yes, it has all rather tightened up with the KDB injury. I'm keeping the powder dry for now and will hope to get past Wednesday's games before making a move, however if Sanchez rises again I'd need to pull the trigger.

KDB is obviously the priority and he looks injured enough to need to be sold so I understand those that have moved early. I feel like there's a chance of a hit coming on soon (with the keeper situation and if Rashford needs replacing) so if Baines is out (or looking like being out) I'd consider downgrading to a 5.0 ish defender but I can't see an obvious route so I think that hit will be deferred for a while. Barring further injuries this week, it looks like I might avoid a hit until GW8 at least which is probably the longest I've managed at the start of a season without one.

I'll play the AOA this week if I have to, and was planning to bench Baines against City anyway. Value lost would be a pain but with no wildcard for a long time, TV isn't quite so important now as it was a week or two ago.

Is anyone tempted by Marshall coming in for GW9?

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by First Sub Podcast »

Mav3rick wrote: KDB is obviously the priority and he looks injured enough to need to be sold so I understand those that have moved early. I feel like there's a chance of a hit coming on soon (with the keeper situation and if Rashford needs replacing) so if Baines is out (or looking like being out) I'd consider downgrading to a 5.0 ish defender but I can't see an obvious route so I think that hit will be deferred for a while. Barring further injuries this week, it looks like I might avoid a hit until GW8 at least which is probably the longest I've managed at the start of a season without one.
Williams? Still get the CPL fixture that way.

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by Mav3rick »

Not for a hit, and not for only one game. That's my issue really, I'd bench him against City and then the two games following that you'd hope Baines is back anyway.

A -4 for one game just seems unnecessary, unless it's funding Sanchez. I'll probably AOA this week and wait until I can take a longer term transfer for the hit. In fact I might not even AOA with Holebas (BOU), Clyne (swa) and Smith (wat) as a reasonable back three anyway (the AOA would bring Capoue in for Smith and does look worthwhile but it's not a necessity).

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by MPTree »

Whilst I missed all of KDB's rises, I am in the fortunate position of having chosen Sanchez over KDB. That means Baines is my only concern, and I'm a little annoyed I missed his rise last week since every drop affects me now. However, Francis can cover him easily enough this week and I think my best bet (pending news) is probably banking and having a little two-transfer re-shuffle (if necessary) after the international break.

I feel very fortunate to have missed out on the Lovren and De Bruyne issues. Playing the wildcard and immediately having so many shenanigans to navigate is mightily unlucky.

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by snakzz »

baganboy wrote:RISK!

I can let go of KDB now, or later. I bought his at 10.6, and will miss the 0.1M rise if I let his price fall tonight.
My experiences last week tell me that the 0.1M is really useful.
However, what if Ozil / Sterling (who both have midweek matches) get injured during the CL matches?

I am considering, for that reason, to do the KDB transfer out move today, but instead of my apparent first two preferences (Ozil / Sterling), change to Mane - my third preference, who does not have a midweek match, and greater chances of being fit during the weekend.

Is that absolutely rubbish logic to use?
I dont see mane as an lesser pick to sterling or ozil tho ;)

Will prolly be over them both by the end of the season imo or around the same points.

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by Stemania »

MPTree wrote:Whilst I missed all of KDB's rises,
The way it's worked out the most any of us will have only gained from him is 0.1m after all that (assuming we'd have jettisoned Hazard anyway). Feels a bit ridiculous really - almost feel robbed. :lol:

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by MPTree »

Stemania wrote:
MPTree wrote:Whilst I missed all of KDB's rises,
The way it's worked out the most any of us will have only gained from him is 0.1m all after all that (assuming we'd have jettisoned Hazard anyway). Feels a bit ridiculous really. :lol:
I never stopped to consider. How many players have triple-risen this season so far? Was KDB the only one? Felt like you guys were on for at least four rises, if not five or six by next GW.

0.1 seems... comical somehow.

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by Hogmeister »

Having jumped early with the WC and held Hazard (in what parallel universe did that decision ever make sense? :oops: ), I've missed all this KdB carnage.

Pulled the trigger last night on Hazard :arrow: Sanchez, funded by Benteke :arrow: Rashford.

With a defence of Baines/Valencia/McAuley/Holebas/Amat I'm OK for next GW defensively even if Baines doesn't make it. Worst case would be if Baines and Holebas were both out, in which case the AOA chip could be used to get Capoue (BOU) on the pitch instead of Amat (LIV).

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by baganboy »

Stemania wrote:
MPTree wrote:Whilst I missed all of KDB's rises,
The way it's worked out the most any of us will have only gained from him is 0.1m after all that (assuming we'd have jettisoned Hazard anyway). Feels a bit ridiculous really - almost feel robbed. :lol:
More like 0.2 in actual value, (sold Hazard at 10.1, Got a 0.1 on KDB)... but in hindsight, it was a 0.6M turn in total, with Hazard losing 0.3 and KDB gaining the same amount. So yeah, robbed is true

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by baganboy »

snakzz wrote:
I dont see mane as an lesser pick to sterling or ozil tho ;)
Ahh! I might just do it today.

It is a stupid move. Not because of Mane, Mane is a great pick. But my rationale is screwed.
I might have eventually decided on Mane last moment over Ozil and Sterling, you know. But right now it feels as if I am doing it because of that 0.1M idea, ridiculous.
After season-before-last's burnout, I seriously thought I will be a lot more zen about the game this season. Not happening...

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

baganboy wrote: After season-before-last's burnout, I seriously thought I will be a lot more zen about the game this season. Not happening...
Having seen your rank, I think you are being hard on yourself. You are obviously doing most things right and as you can Mane is a great pick.

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Just seen the transfers in and Austin is heading for a rise having risen ridiculously today. Anyone on a wildcard might get a double rise out of him. I was quite fancying a Capoue/Austin rotation for my final attacking places in a few weeks, but both are beginning to price themselves out of that.

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by baganboy »

Thanks Aldershot Rejects! As my wife calls it, I am just being a drama king. Basically rubbish anguish, that's all.

PS: I'm an Incredibles alumni myself. Fantastic bunch, those guys!

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by baganboy »

For everyone who does not know yet: Lee Grant. Stoke.

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by blahblah »

baganboy wrote:For everyone who does not know yet: Lee Grant. Stoke.
:?: :?:

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by Stemania »

baganboy wrote:For everyone who does not know yet: Lee Grant. Stoke.
No idea just how close he is to being back, but I would imagine Haugaard will take the place once fit again (until Butland returns). Given may yet be restored anyway.

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Re: RE: Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by Multiple Scorgasms »

baganboy wrote:RISK!

I can let go of KDB now, or later. I bought his at 10.6, and will miss the 0.1M rise if I let his price fall tonight.
My experiences last week tell me that the 0.1M is really useful.
However, what if Ozil / Sterling (who both have midweek matches) get injured during the CL matches?

I am considering, for that reason, to do the KDB transfer out move today, but instead of my apparent first two preferences (Ozil / Sterling), change to Mane - my third preference, who does not have a midweek match, and greater chances of being fit during the weekend.

Is that absolutely rubbish logic to use?
It depends on an individuals circumstances. I am considering Sanchez but hope to wait til after the CL game. I could take the 1st rise but a 2nd one could force my hand.

I am not just worried about injuries though. I want to see how ozil and bellerin\kos play as good games from them may change my transfer decision.

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by Joccki_10 »

math! wrote:
Sutter Kane wrote:Looking at Arsenal's next four games, I'm coming round to the idea of replacing KDB with Ozil, and running with Sanchez and Ozil for those four. Every single game could easily be 3+ goals for Arsenal and no-one would blink an eyelid! After the 4 games, reassess but tbh Arsenal have lovely games (bar 4-5 tricky) up until GW25. If I did decide to keep Ozil, GW8 could even see a cheeky Williams to Bellerin transfer!
I think I will switch Hazard for Sanchez and run with him and Ozil at least for this week. Burnley, Swansea, Boro, Sunderland is a tasty run of fixtures.
Why not wait for the Hull game with Hazard? He could easily get two goals or something comparable. He could also get nothing, I know.

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Pirlo's Beard wrote:I'm favouring McAuley :arrow: Holebas. It gives me a way into Watford's good fixtures and should (in theory) improve my defence. Bit of an injury cloud over Holebas at the minute though I believe? Should have cleared by GW7 hopefully?
With the injury cleared up, I'd consider holding onto McAuley as a good long term option, and shift Valencia for Holebas; it will give you the funds so you have options to upgrade Rashford too if required (gives the option of Benteke) and money in the bank could be useful generally.
Mav3rick wrote:I'll probably AOA this week and wait until I can take a longer term transfer for the hit.
Might be a half decent use of the AOA.
Stemania wrote:Janssen's performance has made me think Deeney would have been the better way forward with retrospect - he doesn't look like a prolific scorer to me from first impression (hopefully Spurs can create enough for that not to matter). The Rashford gambit has turned out well in the short term (though I don't think I'd want him for too much longer after this coming week). I'm still not convinced by any of the options tbh - hopefully Austin secures his place over the next few weeks although Southampton's fixtures are pretty disgusting.
Janssen I am completely put off too, Kane will be back eventually, and he looks like he will do more work to get the other players scoring; I am still watching Eriksen and quite keen. I have no Liverpool or Spurs players in my team, but both are looking like they will do well this season, it's just picking the right individuals. Rashford seems a bit desperate, and expect him to be in and out the team unless Ibra gets injured. Austin looks great, but surely Benteke looks an even safer option and he had loads of shots at the weekend too. :D

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by math! »

Joccki_10 wrote:
math! wrote:
Sutter Kane wrote:Looking at Arsenal's next four games, I'm coming round to the idea of replacing KDB with Ozil, and running with Sanchez and Ozil for those four. Every single game could easily be 3+ goals for Arsenal and no-one would blink an eyelid! After the 4 games, reassess but tbh Arsenal have lovely games (bar 4-5 tricky) up until GW25. If I did decide to keep Ozil, GW8 could even see a cheeky Williams to Bellerin transfer!
I think I will switch Hazard for Sanchez and run with him and Ozil at least for this week. Burnley, Swansea, Boro, Sunderland is a tasty run of fixtures.
Why not wait for the Hull game with Hazard? He could easily get two goals or something comparable. He could also get nothing, I know.
He hasn't been playing too well the last few games. Also Sanchez was rising.

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by Stemania »

So....er, yeah. Anyone got a third striker they'd like to try and sell (and has anyone got one they'd like to try and sell to me)?

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by Joccki_10 »

math! wrote:
Joccki_10 wrote:
math! wrote:I think I will switch Hazard for Sanchez and run with him and Ozil at least for this week. Burnley, Swansea, Boro, Sunderland is a tasty run of fixtures.
Why not wait for the Hull game with Hazard? He could easily get two goals or something comparable. He could also get nothing, I know.
He hasn't been playing too well the last few games. Also Sanchez was rising.
I know, but Chelsea as a team are extremely bad at the moment. There has to be a turnaround sooner rather than later.

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by Joccki_10 »

Stemania wrote:So....er, yeah. Anyone got a third striker they'd like to try and sell (and has anyone got one they'd like to try and sell to me)?
3-5-2 ain't something for you, Stem?

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by eastcentral1 »

I have a Jannsen. Only one assist, barely used

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Stemania wrote:So....er, yeah. Anyone got a third striker they'd like to try and sell (and has anyone got one they'd like to try and sell to me)?
Benteke surely.

If you're looking for someone under 7.0m who is nailed, well a certain Venezuelan striker is the top scorer under 7.0m :wink:

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Re: STC - Statistical Thought Cave

Post by math! »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:
Stemania wrote:So....er, yeah. Anyone got a third striker they'd like to try and sell (and has anyone got one they'd like to try and sell to me)?
Benteke surely.

If you're looking for someone under 7.0m who is nailed, well a certain Venezuelan striker is the top scorer under 7.0m :wink:
He's the only Venezuelan I know..apart from my ex-girlfriend. I'm pretty sure she is not eligible though.

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