Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

[Aldershot Rejects]

City going out? To Newport??? I think I'd actually be flummoxed as to what to do if both Manchester clubs went out the cup.

I would say I definitely don't want Wolves to lose as that imo, would make it all too easy to navigate without chips.

Well you never know, Newport holding their own at half time. And I agree with you about Wolves

City now two-up

[Stemania]

Wolves vs Arsenal the latest confirmed GW31 blank.

[First Sub Podcast]

Palace also cruising.

A chelsea win tomorrow night for the full house and only 4 confirmed games for GW31.

Would make it very difficult for those without FH and WC in tact.

[S_sutton87]

Free hit in 31 for me

Sent from my H8216 using Tapatalk

[Pirlo's Beard]

Tottenham v Crystal Palace now confirmed blank.

They're falling like dominoes.

[Stemania]

Yep, the blankiest outcomes possible so far. So:

GW31 Blanks:
Brighton vs Cardiff
Man United vs Man City
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
Watford vs Southampton
Wolves vs Arsenal

GW31 Undetermined:
Everton vs Chelsea - (Blank if CHE beat MUN)

GW31 Confirmed:
Bournemouth vs Newcastle
Burnley vs Leicester
Fulham vs Liverpool
West Ham vs Huddersfield


We are also one win away (BHA winning an FA Cup QF, or CHE winning 2 more FA Cup games) from a fourth DGW - or carnage if Chelsea also get to the EL Semis!!

[Stemania]

I wonder if there's a point when there's too many blanks to make no-chip31 FH/WC32 so effective.

Might be easier for a number of teams (previously intending to go with the above) to instead hit DGW32 from their current squad than to hit BFW31 now - especially if Chelsea progress. Meaning FH31 might work better for those teams if they can solve the GW33 issue.

[Sutter Kane]

Meaning FH31 might work better for those teams if they can solve the GW33 issue.

How do you solve that issue before it's too late? We won't have enough info until gw32. I prefer to plan for what I know. Also if you hold 3 Liverpool already, it makes any plan other than planning for GW31/33 less effective. However, I could see certain squads perhaps approaching this in a different way.

[Finisher1]

Well, that was a tough old few days for DGW32/35 prospects. A fistful of shocks and now Chelsea drawn against Man Utd.

Ben's odds-based projection for DGW32 is down to just 3.6 blanks! Very low compared to normal!


BC's odds-based GW31 Blank Chances:

Man United vs Man City (88.95% blank)
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace (68.75%)
Watford vs Southampton (59.04%)
Wolves vs Arsenal (57.69%)
Everton vs Chelsea (55.75%)
Brighton vs Cardiff (33.29%)

West Ham vs Huddersfield (0%)
Bournemouth vs Newcastle (0%)
Burnley vs Leicester (0%)
Fulham vs Liverpool (0%)

Well, based on yesterday's draw it can easily be at least five blanks including 4-5 top six teams blanking.

I told you so Stemania.

[Stemania]

@SK

I think you'd have to look at the draw and gamble on the favourites of certain ties. If the draw puts up a few even-looking matchups ups that may be very difficult.

Still no chips-31 then FH/WC32 for me almost certainly, as I have enough in place already - including, as you say, the three Liverpool.

@F1

An extraordinary set of results since indeed, with every one of the non-zero percentages turning into 100% over time!! Just one left to make it the full house.

[Finisher1]

I think you'd have to look at the draw and gamble on the favourites of certain ties. If the draw puts up a few even-looking matchups ups that may be very difficult.

Still no chips-31 then FH/WC32 for me almost certainly, as I have enough in place already - including, as you say, the three Liverpool.

I really really hope Chelsea would go through tomorrow but it just isn't going to happen. Escape from prison everyone.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Meaning FH31 might work better for those teams if they can solve the GW33 issue.

How do you solve that issue before it's too late? We won't have enough info until gw32. I prefer to plan for what I know. Also if you hold 3 Liverpool already, it makes any plan other than planning for GW31/33 less effective. However, I could see certain squads perhaps approaching this in a different way.

I'm leaning towards FH31 - I've currently got TAA, Robertson, Pereira, Salah and Westwood. The defence is strong but the rest of the team is pretty much non-existent. I'd rather ignore 31 completely for planning purposes than be over focused on transferring players in - I also stand to lose a lot of team value if I temporarily transfer out players like Pogba, Rashford and Doherty. If Chelsea lose tomorrow that might push me towards a GW32 FH. Other than that, the main factor pushing me towards FH32 is that the SGW players I do have all have decent fixtures in BGW33

[Finisher1]

An extraordinary set of results since indeed, with every one of the non-zero percentages turning into 100% over time!! Just one left to make it the full house.

Non-zero is a bit of an understatement, isn't it? They all were more than 50%*, most of them over 65% just before Friday if I recall it right.

*Even Brighton was more than 50% in my books

[Finisher1]

Meaning FH31 might work better for those teams if they can solve the GW33 issue.

How do you solve that issue before it's too late? We won't have enough info until gw32. I prefer to plan for what I know. Also if you hold 3 Liverpool already, it makes any plan other than planning for GW31/33 less effective. However, I could see certain squads perhaps approaching this in a different way.

Tomorrow's draw will give us a reasonable guidance of GW33 blankers.

[Stemania]

Non-zero is a bit of an understatement, isn't it? They all were more than 50%*, most of them over 65%.

*Even Brighton was more than 50% in my books

I don't get your point. Probability is multiplicative.

[swadd1er]

Using FH31 and WC22, that still leaves me with TC and BB

Would ideally like to use BB the week after WC if possible for max DGW potential

[Finisher1]

Non-zero is a bit of an understatement, isn't it? They all were more than 50%*, most of them over 65%.

*Even Brighton was more than 50% in my books

I don't get your point. Probability is multiplicative.

It's a classic odds vs. likelihoods I think. All PL teams were clear favourites in their matches.

[Stemania]

That's a different thing to the chance of no upsets (as we have had). The set of results is unusual, each individual result not.

[Finisher1]

That's a different thing to the chance of no upsets (as we have had). The set of results is unusual, each individual result not.

That's why I said "it can easily be at least five blanks including 4-5 top six teams blanking".

I think the initial percentages were way too gloomy by the way, and even Ben Crellin's spreadsheet fixed them upwards until Friday.

[Stemania]

Yes, it could of course always have been 3, 4 or 5 or 6. That much is obvious, no?

[Finisher1]

Yes, it could of course always have been 3, 4 or 5 or 6. That much is obvious, no?

I think all PL teams in this round were clear favourites, so it wasn't too unlikely that all of them go through. Not in my books anyway. Perhaps under 40%, but not too much under it.

I wonder if the unusual set of results in the previous rounds (Newport, Wimbledon, Millwall etc beating PL teams) made people think that these kind of unusual results may continue. And it effectively made (initial) percentages for this round too gloomy, no?

[Stemania]

Sure if that's your view on them - they're just very rough estimates. The protestation against using odds is usually the opposite - that the favourites get over-betted on making the probabilities slightly too optimistic.

[Finisher1]

Sure if that's your view on them - they're just very rough estimates. The protestation against using odds is usually the opposite - that the favourites get over-betted on making the probabilities slightly too optimistic.

Yeah that's my view.

Even if we calculate a likelihood for the current set of outcomes based on your initial percentages, it's 7.0% - and for my claim this likelihood is increased by the facts that 1) those percentages in BC's spreadsheet were remarkably fixed upwards after my post, 2) my claim "it can easily be at least five blanks including 4-5 top six teams blanking" even included a chance for one PL team to get beaten by a lower team and 3) the initial percentages were too gloomy like I said (perhaps because people were expecting PL teams to keep getting beaten by lower teams), and that's why they were actually fixed upwards after my post.

So, I stick to my view, it was initially about 40% chance for "at least five blanks including 4-5 top six teams blanking"

[Bobby Fetta]

Isn't part of it that
- in the early rounds of the FA Cup there is a lot of rotation from the mid to bottom of table PL teams and some pretty half-hearted efforts (managers thinking there is a low chance of winning the cup, just a distraction, focus on the league etc.)
- now they are closer to the final so they're rotating less and giving a genuine attempt to win. You have the big teams (strong squads), plus teams like Wolves and Watford who are comfortably mid-table so don't need to worry about relegation

My feeling was that the odds and forecast blanks were conservatively low, so that 5/6 blanks were likely. As I said 10 days ago, I think more people will FH31 than realised at the time.

Anyway, moving on to something practical rather than navel gazing. I have been doing crude optimisations of the FFS RMT projections for future transfer planning with blanks/dgws based on the Crellin percentages and logical fixture placement (not guaranteed!). Before this weekend I had a 10pt lead for FH32. Now down to 5pts. So practically it is margin of error stuff for my team. Teams starting with more players for gw31 now may be different. My feeling is that once we know the draw, pick a plan and work to it - luck will probably be the biggest factor in which way round turns out best.

That said, all the teams winning actually causes more problems in GW33 for the FH31 strategy. For my team, Chelsea losing tomorrow would help so they have a gw33 fixture.

[Stemania]

1) those percentages in BC's spreadsheet were remarkably fixed upwards after my post,

Well, yes - the percentages you quoted were from before the 4th round replays - so, for example, Brighton and Wolves had two games to play at that point, and City were more likely to face Middlesbrough away (than Newport who beat them)...

[Finisher1]

Well, yes - the percentages you quoted were from before the 4th round replays - so, for example, Brighton and Wolves had two games to play at that point, and City were more likely to face Middlesbrough away (than Newport who beat them)...

No Stemania. I meant all the percentages were remarkably fixed upwards.

For example, City vs. United was about 96.0% blank according to BC just until Friday. And all the fixtures were fixed upwards, so also Wolves vs. Arsenal, Tottenham vs. Palace etc.

edit. Yeah, I got what you suggested. But it happened to all the fixtures anyway. And if I recall it right, they were also fixed upwards just until Friday, so long after replays.

Isn't part of it that
- in the early rounds of the FA Cup there is a lot of rotation from the mid to bottom of table PL teams and some pretty half-hearted efforts (managers thinking there is a low chance of winning the cup, just a distraction, focus on the league etc.)
- now they are closer to the final so they're rotating less and giving a genuine attempt to win. You have the big teams (strong squads), plus teams like Wolves and Watford who are comfortably mid-table so don't need to worry about relegation

My feeling was that the odds and forecast blanks were conservatively low, so that 5/6 blanks were likely. As I said 10 days ago, I think more people will FH31 than realised at the time.

Spot on.

[Bobby Fetta]

For example, City vs. United was about 96.0% blank according to BC just until Friday.

To be fair, that match was an exception because it is formed from two teams that could get through so the odds were always higher than the others. Of course in addition, one of them was City playing Newport, which they were hyping as the biggest upset in fa cup history if newport won...

I don't think the odds for the other matches changed particularly on Friday.

[Stemania]

Ben gave 5+ blanks a chance of 43% after the replays, so in line with your guess F1. His percentages have essentially not changed since the post-replay update - until these results (his twitter feed has a full history if you wish to check).

[Pirlo's Beard]

Using FH31 and WC22

Time travelling?

[Finisher1]

Ben gave 5+ blanks a chance of 43% after the replays, so in line with your guess F1. His percentages have essentially not changed since the post-replay update - until these results (his twitter feed has a full history if you wish to check).

Yeah so basically I just gave a similar estimation until Brighton beat West Brom, Wolves beat Shreswbury and Newport beat Middlesbrough. I don't think those results were surprises or should have made a big difference (particularly because NEW/MID was always going to face City anyway), so I'm prone to think the initial percentages were simply far too gloomy in general, and that's a big reason why they were fixed upwards!