How much do you think Ryan Sessegnon will be next season

[Kris_fiso]

I really want to put him in my fantasy team. But I'm not sure how he will next season as they could make him seven million if he is still playing for Fulham. Or his price might go higher if he moves to a bigger club

[Jay P]

Do you think he’ll be listed as a midfielder? He’s played as left back in the past, but has recently been deployed as a winger? Either way my feeling is 7.0mm is too much if he’s on Fulham. Hopefully they don’t price him out of the game.

[Aldershot Rejects]

If he's a midfielder - £5.5m would be reasonable; possibly £6m; don't think he should be any higher. If he's a defender, £5.0 would seem reasonable.

[Pirlo's Beard]

£6.0m midfielder would be my guess, given that he's Fulham's star midfielder, and based on the pricing of star midfielders from the promoted teams last season: Tom Ince, Anthony Knockaert, and Matt RItchie, who were all £6.0m when the season kicked off.

Of more interest to me will be the pricing of Loris Karius if he's still at Liverpool. I think this could well be the first case of FPL paying us to sign a player, rather than the other way around.

[MoSe]

Took me a while to realise the one I had heard about was actually Stephane.
Are the two related?

[Mr Clarinet]

Took me a while to realise the one I had heard about was actually Stephane.
Are the two related?

Only distantly. But Ryan has a twin brother, also a footballer, called Steven, just to confuse us.

[Ralfbergs]

Took me a while to realise the one I had heard about was actually Stephane.
Are the two related?

Only distantly. But Ryan has a twin brother, also a footballer, called Steven, just to confuse us.

He is their cousin - (From Stephane's wiki - ''He is the cousin of twin brothers Ryan and Steven, who both currently play for Fulham.'')

As for the price tag and position - doubt that he will be classified as DEF, most likely midfield, which will lessen his points potential and yeah 6.0 seems most likely to me

[Sutter Kane]

Depends if he can keep raiding forward in the Prem as much as in the Championship. I think someone did a spreadsheet with Sess as a midfielder and would have scored 197. Obviously in the Prem it's more difficult (with less games) so I'd expect around 150 unless Fulham really push on for top half. So probably not worth it at 6mn although he's a set and forget if he stays at Fulham as he'll play every game and those types of players are underrated - to coin a phrase... a 'Talisman'. I'll be all over 5.5mn if he's a defender though.

[OldSkoolFPL]

6m midfielder, doubt they'll classify him as a defender.

[Ruth_NZ]

Too much.

[Oxford NZ]

Of more interest to me will be the pricing of Loris Karius if he's still at Liverpool. I think this could well be the first case of FPL paying us to sign a player, rather than the other way around.

I would pick him as bench keeper, just for a talking point and so I would not have the weekly goal keeper dilemma I am usually faced with.

[Ruth_NZ]

...I'd expect around 150 unless Fulham really push on for top half...

Surely that's too high? That's around 7 goals & 7 assists plus a few CS points and some BPs, even assuming he starts 38 games and doesn't get too many cards. If he breaks 120 he'll be doing extremely well for a promoted midfielder.

Personally I'd be more interested in Joe Ralls.

[Pirlo's Beard]

Personally I'd be more interested in Joe Ralls.

Salahgate 2.0 incoming.

[ajcairns]

Gross ended up with 159 points this season as a promoted midfielder. Richie (116) and Mooy (113) the next best.

It's not completely inconceivable but Gross is more a No10 on the pitch than Sessegnon is though. His 197 equivalent points were in a winning team and more games so 150 seems a bit high to me.

[Sutter Kane]

Maybe 150 is too optimistic. But he carries much more of a goal threat than Gross imo, although less creative. Gross now being on pens though makes me interested in his price but I fear he'll be too much with a risk of second season syndrome as well. Fulham are an attacking side too. If he's 6mn, I'd be interested but depends on the rest of the players' prices.

[Sutter Kane]

In fact imo, 120 points would certainly be too low an acceptable return for what we think his price will be - definitely would look at a extra defender @ 6mn instead, especially as there's likely to be a little choice with base price mids but not base price defs. (probably)

120 might be a decent score for a promoted mid but if that's a rough benchmark, that price range is out of consideration until we're sure who's doing the business' and let's face it, that's what we're all likely to be doing anyway, no-one really able to pinpoint the next 'Gross' immediately.

[Sutter Kane]

120 is 3.1ppg a game! That's dreadful, assuming he basically plays every game and doesn't really get subbed on! There's over 50 defenders better than that, most of them much cheaper than 6mn. I know it's a benchmark based on previous, but that is so bad that playing 5 at the back seems far preferable. Maybe there's no value around that price point of mids then (because it seems for about a couple million more, you can likely achieve 5ppg a la Pogba/Zaha/Arnie)...

Are my value expectations too high? :mrgreen

[ajcairns]

120 is 3.1ppg a game! That's dreadful, assuming he basically plays every game and doesn't really get subbed on! There's over 50 defenders better than that, most of them much cheaper than 6mn. I know it's a benchmark based on previous, but that is so bad that playing 5 at the back seems far preferable. Maybe there's no value around that price point of mids then (because it seems for about a couple million more, you can likely achieve 5ppg a la Pogba/Zaha/Arnie)...

Are my value expectations too high? :mrgreen

Not sure where you get the 50 defenders from?

[ajcairns]

Ah I see, 50 defenders with higher ppg than 3.1

Problem with that is not many of them play 38 games (Gamez, Walker/Pieters etc). Better to take their season total and divide by 38 for a more accurate expectation?

[MoSe]

it depends on the reason why they didn't play all 38, if you expect that was a contingency, or that it would repeat
it's best to consider both their PPG AND their games played over the season, and apply judgement for which to weed out

[Sutter Kane]

Yea I know. I couldn't do that calculation quickly!

Just saying that there are a lot of defenders, and cheaper (not necessarily 50) so from a value side of things, 120pts for Sessegnon at 6mn would be a MASSIVE NO for me.

[Ruth_NZ]

Gross ended up with 159 points this season as a promoted midfielder. Richie (116) and Mooy (113) the next best.

Well, technically Groß wasn't a promoted midfielder, he played in the Bundesliga the season before. But I was just going on what is typical from the promoted teams based on recall.

Groß is an interesting case actually. A big component of him doing so well (apart from out-performing his xG by a factor of more than 200%) was how well he was rewarded on BPs; he had 24 of them, up there with the big-hitter midfielders like KDB, Silva, Salah, Hazard and Eriksen. Only twice did he score or assist without getting BPs and one of those was when he got a YC in the same game. And he even once managed 3 BPs in a 1-0 defeat.

Part of his status as a BPS magnet is down to "big chances created" - a contentious category because it's quite subjective. Groß was credited with 16 BCCs last season, 2nd only to KDB, and BCCs are 3 BPS points each. The likes of Kanté have to complete 9 recoveries to match one BCC. He also had 74 "key passes" (another subjective stat), 5th best in the PL, and they are 1 BPS each. So those creative numbers helped create the platform for an unusually good BP performance.

I'd hazard a guess that he'll get less points next season; he has benefited from scoring more goals than he 'should' have done and from being essentially Brighton's sole creator. As they improve he will probably benefit less from being the player it all goes through.

[MoSe]

Just saying that there are a lot of defenders, and cheaper (not necessarily 50) so from a value side of things, 120pts for Sessegnon at 6mn would be a MASSIVE NO for me.

when I came here 4 seasons ago, I read that an acceptable return would be 19~20p per £m spent, which would be 0.5 ppgpm
last season I saw much higher figures posted by someone, that you should expect 0.7~0.8, that's 27~30p for a whole 38 games per million
I never got where this "consensus" came from tho, older Fiso discusson, internet lore... who knows

55 defenders got 3.1 PPG or better this season, only 10 thereof played 30+ games over the season, many were in the 20-29 range
This means, either you jump on a defender when he's inform and plays regularly, or he's part of a rotation plan, hoping the games he misses are his diffucult fixtures, or you have to be prepared to have sub him sometimes
So PPG is the optimal measure

120p would be 3.16 PPG for playing 38 games
suppose he only plays 30, and it already becomes 4.0 PPG, and you'll provide otherwise for the 8 he misses
you only had 4 defenders with 4+ PPG playing 30+ games (37 33 32 31) and 7 with 27-28-29 games played

if I got it, you expect him to be a 6.0 mid, and you're comparing him with defs because at that price point you can find better value there
This entails tho also a strategic formation choice between a mid and a def
It would be anyway interesting to compare him with 6.0 mids to see whether that's a poor value point for mids altogether (a general issue) or for him specifically (Sessegnon mispriced at 6.0m)

for the moment, spurred on by your questions, I extracted the complete Def PPG list from FPL statistics page
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/sta ... _game/et_2
bubble size is apps (alas it's final price, I don't know if I stored starting prices this season, and fecthing them requires a bit of work)

FPL 1718 DEF PPG.gif

the straight line is the regression for ALL defs who scored points this seasons (172), and it tells us that the best approximating linear formula is
PPG = 0.85*Price - 1.34 (6m = 3.76 PPG, 113p from 30 games, 132p from 35)
and of course the more a players moves topleftwards from that line, the better

you'd want to compare a player PPG only with the best options available tho, not with the bulk of 2.5-pointers

filtering the data for players who got at least 16 apps (i.e. including K.Long and Moreno, 106 players)
we'd get a PPG = 0.80*Price - 0.96 formula, and the correlation increases marginally (6m = 3.84 PPG, 115p /30, 134p /35)

filtering further by a minimum level of PPG
PPG >= 3    PPG = 0.43*Price + 1.60 (48 players) (6m = 4.18 PPG, 125p /30, 146p /35)
PPG >= 3.5 PPG = 0.27*Price + 2.74 (32 players) (6m = 4.36 PPG, 131p /30, 153p /35)
PPG >= 4    PPG = 0.13*Price + 3.75 (21 players) (6m = 4.53 PPG, 136p /30, 159p /35)

we might prefer to filter for highest ppgpm tho if we want to find best value
ppgpm >= 0.5 PPG = 0.73*Price - 0.33 (87 players) (6m = 4.05 PPG, 121.5p /30, 142p /35)
ppgpm >= 0.6 PPG = 0.64*Price + 0.47 (54 players) (6m = 4.31 PPG, 129p /30, 151p /35)
ppgpm >= 0.7 PPG = 0.56*Price + 1.22 (29 players) (6m = 4.58 PPG, 137p /30, 160p /35)
ppgpm >= 0.8 PPG = 0.725*Price + 0.835 (12 players) (6m = 5.19 PPG, 156p /30, 181p /35)

[Sutter Kane]

This entails tho also a strategic formation choice between a mid and a def

Yes and potentially a positive one if there are 4.5mn mids available and a serious lack of 4mn defenders.

I'm not sure what I'm extrapolating from that massive data dump above. I'm afraid my IQ will require a summary sentence Mose...If I had to extrapolate, I'd say he's not worth it at 6mn unless he scores considerably more than 120 points. (partially because of my first sentence).

[MoSe]

I laid out the data for anyone to draw their conclusions, didn't draw them myself
at 6.0m, you find Koscielny with 4 PPG from 25 games. Check those around him on the graph, and try to place Sessegnon
I think you should consider Vertonghen & Bellerin, who only missed 2 or 3 games, and had ~3.8 PPG

to get 4 PGG you don't need to score 152po from 38g, you can also score 120p from 30g (all top defenders played fewer, except 4)

mids scoring points hadn't been much more than defs this season, 199
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/sta ... _game/et_3

so I managed to prepare the Mids PGG graph too
you chan check who'd he compare with at 6.0m
Groß has been mentioned, Lingard got 128p from 33g

FPL 1718 MID PPG.gif

[blahblah]

.

Is it possible to rip the Players' Data for points, price at start of season, minutes and Appearances?

[MoSe]

Rip?
As in tearing off a piece of paper?

The above data is easily fetchable from official FPL pages, which I linked to.
They include points, and appearances which I actually reverse-engineered from points and ppg.

FPL Minutes Played could be fetched the same way filtering for them, you can't tho extract MP and ppt in the same list, so you'd have to merge the two lists by player names.
You know of course that I'll never calculate PP90 stats myself never in my life

Starting prices are not immediately available, so you'd need to find some source, or some method, other than looking them up one by one
In the FAQ:
Is there a print-friendly list of players I can view?
We have a full player list you can view and print.
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/player-list/
Alas that list got updated with current prices.

Another thing I did in last season's, was taking all price changes from CTC and subtotal them to get the season change for each player.
Alas
- CTC is not reliable as it once was, many changes might me missing
- CTC doesn't use the same player names as FPL, some work will be required to make all loose ends match.

There's actually an easy way, again from FPL.statistics page
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/sta ... ange_start
If you select Price Rise you get the SEASON price change (both positive and negative, you get the same list in reerse order for Price Fall). Taking out the change from final price you get the starting one.
And you can match them with other lists by FPL names.

So yes, I, or you or anyone, can get the items you requested from FPL stats pages.
I'm frankly only interested in the above plots tho, I don't think I'd produce of different kinds (for sure not with minutes, maybe with starting prices although they won't be much different)

Finally, I think every data can be found in the fpl APIs, if you know how they're structured and how to parse them with JSON, so you can extract all useful data in table form readable and usable for everyone.
But that would be a task for Mav, thesilkworm, Rob, Mystery, RPG, kidzio, and many others I forget now, should they volunteer to the task.

[Pirlo's Beard]

[MoSe]

for those interested, I completed the series with FWDs and GKPs in my RMT viewtopic.php?f=99&t=115292&p=3200045#p3200045

[blahblah]

Re the above: Bram does a spreadsheet for TFF, which is the sort of thing I meant....

(ripping is a pseudo technical term for taking data 71st ripping 's to laptop.)