Hits: are you Britknee?
- wonkypenguin
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
60 here
- snakzz
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
6 hits here
- ZeroRemorse
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
11 hits, possible 2/3 more to come.
- jazzyb69
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
11 also for me and having my worst season ever by a long, long way.
- Bixer
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
Ranked 4182 at the moment, so pretty happy with that. I've personally mostly just been a fan of the 'less is more' approach when it comes to FPL, too many experiences in my earlier seasons where I'd take a hit only for the player I took out to do well and leave myself worse off. Nowadays I try my hardest only to do so if a player is actually injured or suspended.
- Oxford NZ
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
Sorry, that is not so awesome
In that case I have seven weeks with no transfers, but that may be due to blissful ignorance or the pain killers working too well.
I tend to take a hit (or blank a week of transfers) when I have issues to sort requiring moving money between defence/ midfield/ forwards. The bench should take care of ordinary injury problems.
I screwed up with the last DGW though by setting up my team too soon loosing points before and after. The average over the three game weeks was not impressive to say the least. Taking hits would have seen me better set up before and after ( and for the seasons last fixtures).
- blahblah
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- blahblah
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
Any chance that you can do this from GW30, when I gave up the "No Hits" Dogma?MoSe wrote: ↑24 Apr 2018, 22:27 Of course such topics are interesting to allow everyone to contribute their own personal "anecdotal" experience , but I can always add a more systematic approach, by taking the Forum League data I gathered every gw from the start of the season (thanx to Mav's tool) and report Hits volumes, distribution, clustering...
- Albert_ini
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
4 hits and not a single green arrow in any of those 4 GWs.
Usually I try to avoid hits as much as possible and when I take one I end up regretting it most of the times.
This is one aspect of the game that I know I have to improve and take better advantage of.
Usually I try to avoid hits as much as possible and when I take one I end up regretting it most of the times.
This is one aspect of the game that I know I have to improve and take better advantage of.
- unc.si.
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
Don't really play seriously and get a bit bored if I don't tinker with the team a bit. 14 hits in total, so not too excessive, but thats still 56 points. Green arrows in about half of them.
I don't really plan too far ahead, but just try and stay with the pack in my ML by taking a few hits and keeping the chips to near the end of the season to cover Doubles and blanks (yes, I've seen the debate and I'm sure there's a more effective strategy, but for the casual / lazy player like me its just far easier to play chips in DGW's) and then swoop in to win the ML. Thats all I really care about although usually have to finish somewhere around 20k to 50k to win it.
I don't really plan too far ahead, but just try and stay with the pack in my ML by taking a few hits and keeping the chips to near the end of the season to cover Doubles and blanks (yes, I've seen the debate and I'm sure there's a more effective strategy, but for the casual / lazy player like me its just far easier to play chips in DGW's) and then swoop in to win the ML. Thats all I really care about although usually have to finish somewhere around 20k to 50k to win it.
- Mav3rick
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The stats are dark and full of errors.
Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
10 hits for me, so 40 points in total. More hits than I'd usually take I think, but I've had some injury & dropping debacles this season which have contributed probably 3, maybe 4 of them.
- BobMem
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
I wonder if a better way to look at the Meta data would be to ignore the first ~5 weeks, and look at best rank improvement from week 6 to the end.
I figure that teams who 'get lucky' with their initial team selection may end up higher ranked, AND take fewer hits,therefore skewing the figures. The best players might be the ones who can recover from a bad start? At least they're the ones I most likely need to emulate!
19 hits, for 76 points. A tad higher than my normal average I think, but probably no more than 1 to come. Worst season ever for OR though, by about 700,000.
I figure that teams who 'get lucky' with their initial team selection may end up higher ranked, AND take fewer hits,therefore skewing the figures. The best players might be the ones who can recover from a bad start? At least they're the ones I most likely need to emulate!
19 hits, for 76 points. A tad higher than my normal average I think, but probably no more than 1 to come. Worst season ever for OR though, by about 700,000.
- MPTree
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
Five so far, which is about average for me. I think I could have been a bit more pro-active in chasing TV early on, since I'm going to finish on a record-low TV this season (currently 103.1). I don't feel like it's hampered me too much, but a few extra pennies sure would be useful now I'm on a WC.
- Lucky
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
20 hits .. minus 80 points
10 green arrows
6 red arrows
Not shy to take hits, but obviously 80 points more at this stage would be fantastic.
10 green arrows
6 red arrows
Not shy to take hits, but obviously 80 points more at this stage would be fantastic.
- MoSe
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
minus all those you gained thanks to those hits?
- blahblah
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- MoSe
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
it's also interesting to check https://www.anewpla.net/fpl/report/
for you it says for instance
Transfers
Total Transfers : 53
Total Points Hits : 88
Total Auto Subs : 36
Total Auto Subs points : 108
Total immediate points gained from transfers : 117
of course it's a rather crude summary
first of all it calculates points gained from all Transfers, even if those didn't generate a Hit (even thos in a WC, for instance)
then, if you make say 3 Transfers and pay 1 Hit, it calculates the points balance for all 3, not differentiating which transfer "generated" the Hit
finally, Hits may have some effect beyond the immediate GW, but that's beyond that tool to calculate
for you it says for instance
Transfers
Total Transfers : 53
Total Points Hits : 88
Total Auto Subs : 36
Total Auto Subs points : 108
Total immediate points gained from transfers : 117
of course it's a rather crude summary
first of all it calculates points gained from all Transfers, even if those didn't generate a Hit (even thos in a WC, for instance)
then, if you make say 3 Transfers and pay 1 Hit, it calculates the points balance for all 3, not differentiating which transfer "generated" the Hit
finally, Hits may have some effect beyond the immediate GW, but that's beyond that tool to calculate
- blahblah
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- mandoncare
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
1 hit (4 points) for stanislas in BGW31 which he duly paid for with a late fk goal and 3 bonus points.
- Lucky
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
Fascinating link, MoSe ... Thank you very much.
I inserted my ID and got the following reply:
Total Transfers : 52
Total Points Hits : 84
Total Auto Subs : 22
Total Auto Subs points : 58
Total immediate points gained from transfers : 251
From my point of view it does not look so bad, but you might know better.
I take many more hits in the first part of the game. They are not only injury or points potential related, but quite often price related. Hence I am used to playing a catching up game in general with momentum picking up strongly towards the end. My highest ranking was top 6k within 10 years of playing.
Obviously I would like to do better, but it always depends on the ability, to identify the Mo Salah and Sterling in your first draft or the Lukaku over Kane momentum in the first 6 GWs. You also need to be a bit lucky.
With a team value in between 105.4 and 106.0 and only 3 4-point hits since GW 24 I had the flexibility to go for what I considered to be the right player. And team value is close to pp value.
I would be curious whether there is any statistical average of the immediate points gained from transfers.
- MoSe
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
Not that I know of, that tool has been around mentioned here 3 seasons ago, and the author has improved it over time, while following FPL overhauls, but there's no table output plotting multiple teams data
it also has a Live Legaue tool
https://www.anewpla.net/fpl/league/live.php
but it's little more than the usual tool to follow a league Scores Live
it doesn't cover the statistical data in the /report/ link
BTW, I gained 251p too, as you did, while blah 117
it also has a Live Legaue tool
https://www.anewpla.net/fpl/league/live.php
but it's little more than the usual tool to follow a league Scores Live
it doesn't cover the statistical data in the /report/ link
BTW, I gained 251p too, as you did, while blah 117
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- Lucky
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
But if you gained 251 pts with 7 hits that is outstanding compared to my 251 with 21 hits. Is that the way to read it?
No matter about blah's points, but he probably should be slightly more cautious regarding short term benefits. But longer term he might have been doing better than us. No evidence.
Likewise to you it should be encouragement, maybe to try a few transfers more with such a high success rate.
- MoSe
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
but as I said the tool tallies immediate gains from ALL transfers (incl. WC ones), not from just hits
so I gained 251 immediate pts from 38 (?) transfers (*the figure leaves me perplexed. OK it's from History not counting WC/FH)
and those 38 transfers were distributed to only get 7 hits
I did say in my first post in this topic, that 7 hits were uncharacteristically few for me in my 4th season,
because I played it superficially without dedicating more than 2 minutes to my own team for the most part of the season
and I was having my worst season by far till GW34, probably because I hadn't dedicated enough time to my transfers, taking more hits
I've never been hit averse
it's a plain obviety that in hindsight you can always improve your score by picking the right hits
the best scores can't be obtained without taking hits
the problem is, it's very hard, if not impossible, to figure out the right ones beforehand
statistically, most hits are not predicted to pay off, because the chances your picked player blanks are normally higher than he hauls
still every GW, even not counting one-off freak performances by mediocre players, there's always some premium player who was worth taking a risk upon with a hit
if only we could find out beforehand who they are
(*)
I actually had 132p immediate gain from 38 transfers, excluding WC/FH
WC8 I had 10Tx imm.gain 22p
WC32 13Tx imm.gain 19p
FH35 15Tx imm.gain 78p, 1 Transer counted in History, as the "Outs" were mostly blankers
132/38 = +3.47p per normal transfer
1.78p per actual transfer in WCs, but WCs benefits should go beyond immediate
the FH is too peculiar
those 38 normal transfers were distributed so as to pay 7 hits in 4 GWs
in all those 4 GWs I only had 1 default FT, and I made 11 transfers paying 7 hits (11-4 = 7)
the immediate gain from those 11 Tx in the 4 GWs when I took a hit, was 47p, so +4.27p per transfer when I took a hit
19 net pts gained, taking off the Cost - but to actually assess the worth of each hit, you'd have to analyse each GW individually
by complement, the balance in normal GWs when I made transfers but didn't take a hit,
is: +85p from 27 Tx = +4.05p per normal Free transfer
- blahblah
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
Yep, it is very difficult to measure (I got confused with the maths )
I'll be taking more before 11.30 tomorrow morning
I'll be taking more before 11.30 tomorrow morning
- MoSe
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
In summary,
the FPL Statistico tool "immediate gain" from Transfer figure
is drugged
- it counts the gains from Transfers in WC/FH, which are not tho counted towards the Transfers total
- so WCs in general water down your yeld per transfer
- while FH is a freak show and can alter your yield heavily
- the tool figure counts the (triple) captain points if you just bought him, but not against who'd have you captained
- it counts the gain from a bencher (e.g. you buy a cheap player to fund another, and put him on bench ...and he hauls )
it's just a gross figure, with several caveats (maybe we could write to the author )
the FPL Statistico tool "immediate gain" from Transfer figure
is drugged
- it counts the gains from Transfers in WC/FH, which are not tho counted towards the Transfers total
- so WCs in general water down your yeld per transfer
- while FH is a freak show and can alter your yield heavily
- the tool figure counts the (triple) captain points if you just bought him, but not against who'd have you captained
- it counts the gain from a bencher (e.g. you buy a cheap player to fund another, and put him on bench ...and he hauls )
it's just a gross figure, with several caveats (maybe we could write to the author )
- blahblah
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
Yep gross as in wrong\daft etc
I do kinda get it, but only enough to know that it is rather suspect ie FH and having had "existing" players on my bench would have raised my Hit "return".
Losing the FH GW of 80-odd won't do much damage of a GW Average of 70-odd ie approx 2.5 drop, and the BB was the worst score of the lot.... Hmm, take those Chip GW's out and the Average goes up
Obviously, I don't think the 70 is maintainable (as it would be leading the whole thing by 10 points atm), but it is a freak lot better than 50 - and next season I could well start hitting a lot earlier.
I do kinda get it, but only enough to know that it is rather suspect ie FH and having had "existing" players on my bench would have raised my Hit "return".
Losing the FH GW of 80-odd won't do much damage of a GW Average of 70-odd ie approx 2.5 drop, and the BB was the worst score of the lot.... Hmm, take those Chip GW's out and the Average goes up
Obviously, I don't think the 70 is maintainable (as it would be leading the whole thing by 10 points atm), but it is a freak lot better than 50 - and next season I could well start hitting a lot earlier.
- blahblah
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
I made the 100 this GW with another 12:
Vardy, Auba, Mahrez and Maguire to JAyew, Capt Kane, Sterling and Vertonghen.
Jesus and a Swnas defender are in line for next GW....
Vardy, Auba, Mahrez and Maguire to JAyew, Capt Kane, Sterling and Vertonghen.
Jesus and a Swnas defender are in line for next GW....
- DalianAtkinson
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Re: Hits: are you Britknee?
1 hit all season. I play very conservatively.
In top 10k so going OK.
The hit was a disaster, a triple transfer to get Hazard and Morata in for Chelsea's easy run...
In top 10k so going OK.
The hit was a disaster, a triple transfer to get Hazard and Morata in for Chelsea's easy run...
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