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GW34 Free Hit

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by Ruth_NZ »

tarkens wrote: I keep making changes and now switched back to 3-4-3, does it look better than 3-5-2 I posted earlier?

The 3-5-2 looks better to me.

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Archy
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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by Archy »

Having gone through the teams and the advice on here (thank you peeps :D ), I'm now probably finalising with:

Courtois
Valencia Smalling Chilwell
Sanchez Mahrez Eriksen Willian
Kane Vardy Barnes

Nothing left in the bank this time, which is quite a satisfying feeling

With Sanchez working his way in, there is now a vaible alterntive to Kane as captain. That choice is probably the one remaining decision to be made..

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by lorocator »

Archy wrote:Having gone through the teams and the advice on here (thank you peeps :D ), I'm now probably finalising with:

Courtois
Valencia Smalling Chilwell
Sanchez Mahrez Eriksen Willian
Kane Vardy Barnes

Nothing left in the bank this time, which is quite a satisfying feeling

With Sanchez working his way in, there is now a vaible alterntive to Kane as captain. That choice is probably the one remaining decision to be made..
Great team. I must admit first team I see here that made me rethink mine. In fact I've just tried and I also have 0.0 left. But I'd be leaving Alonso, Pogba and Alli out. Don't know what to do now. Alli vs Mahrez?

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Rivers
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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by Rivers »

Having played have moved onto this:

Courtois
Alonso Smalling Morgan Chilwell
Sanchez (c) Son Willian
Kane Lukaku Vardy

Taking Son instead of Eriksen means I can get Courtois and Smalling, rather than de Gea and Lowton.

Some doubts over Willian's game time - I could swap him for Azpilicuta or a Spurs defender. Not sure how I feel about a triple Chelsea defence at this point. With Rose out I guess Davies is a real option if still a bit risky.

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by TopMarx »

Smurphy's Paw wrote: 12 Apr 2018, 06:56 Picking a team for a one-off set of fixtures, form is as much of a consideration as fixtures and we don’t have the luxury of ‘waiting for them to come good’.
I'm enjoying the short term nature of it - picking the best team for one gameweek. I used to play the Yahoo Fantasy Football game before FPL, in which you pick the best team every week, essentially every week is a Free Hit. I enjoyed it and I've been looking forward to the FH chip, although I'm now worried I'm going to completely overthink it! (plenty of evidence to follow in this long post!)
With Chelsea players, part of the consideration is that they have not been consistent FPL performers of late. For a while Ruth and others have been counselling caution, only picking one from the team, etc. I was already uncertain about Willian and the Pedro thing just provided me with the rationale to be able to remove. If you like, I was looking for a reason.
I feel the threat of rotation is similar to Spurs with Lamela playing well and match fit. I also feel Moura will get some minutes having worked with Poch a lot over the IB, he will most likely come on as a sub v Brighton. So for me this rules out Son; he could do well v City for sure, but the match you really want him for is the Brighton game and I don't think his playing time is guaranteed at all. I can understand why I see Alli and Eriksen in FH teams; more secure starters. Although neither particularly appeal to me - I still don't fully trust Alli not to do something silly in the City match and be banned for Brighton (good news for Son perhaps!). Eriksen is playing well, however a bit like Coutinho when he was at Liverpool, I don't feel we can expect big returns every week from a player in a deeper midfield position. As a Spurs fan I feel I'm naturally pessimistic about Spurs players.

Getting back to Willian, the difference is Chelsea have two fixtures against sides outside of the top six, so if Willian plays only one match at least it's not against City. I think they look great going forward and the stats back me up - top for chances created over the last six matches. They just need to improve their finishing; less than 8% goal conversion. The question is will Chelsea find their scoring boots or will they keep on missing?

I think they will keep creating chances. Obviously I would prefer Willian to get two matches but I understand both yours and Ruth's logic. When comparing Hazard to Willian, it's the Brazilian who has been looking more threatening recently, Hazard is a lot of money for a player who seems more likely to assist. We all know his quality though, and perhaps over a DGW the extra outlay is worth it. I feel more excited about Morata, I think he's looked good against Spurs and West Ham, I feel the goals will follow. I'm slightly worried about a report - I think originating in the Sun - that Conte blamed him after the Spurs defeat. This seemed a bit Jekyll and Hyde from Conte as he said before the Spurs game how hard Morata had worked and was 100% fit, so I'm not sure whether to believe that story or not. Morata then played against West Ham... There's the concern that Giroud will start one, also Morata hasn't had the best season after a good start - back injury, loss of confidence - but two goals and one assist in his last three matches (including FA Cup) is encouraging, and I think he's played well too.

I will pick three from Kane, Lukaku, Morata, Vardy.

Lukaku has scored 14 of his 15 goals this season against teams outside the top six, he has to be in. Kane's desire for the golden boot means he is most likely in too, hopefully he is fully over his injury and back to 100% match fitness. It could be a better DGW in terms of fixtures, and he wasn't great against Stoke. Vardy is good value and Leicester have a good DGW, although he's less explosive than the other three.
Which prompts me to question why I’m consider spending close to £14m on their defence. If the lower cost players weren’t at risk of rotation I would save a bit. Their attacking defenders do seem to be the most likely route to positive returns though and given the DGW pool of players is smaller I think that 2 players is reasonable.
Conte doesn't have a settled back three, this is a problem, the defence doesn't look that solid and I wouldn't want two Chelsea defenders. One attacking defender, if budget allows, why not? Alonso has motivation for a World Cup spot, as do a number of Chelsea players. He looked very threatening against Spurs, less so against West Ham. The tactics against West Ham saw Hazard, Willian and Morata linking up well and creating chances, Alonso didn't get forward as much. Is Emerson a rotation threat? There's the fear with Alonso that he will get a massive haul, I feel happier having him in my team than not. However Azpi seems more certain to start both games, and he links up well with Morata.
How’s your FH team looking TopMarx?
Still decisions to be made!

I've been all set on Sanchez, Lukaku, DDG as my United 3 but I'm now worried about Sanchez. I have to accept this is not the Sanchez of Arsenal, but a more disciplined Sanchez under Mourinho. He seems to be assisting more, I'm used to him having more goal attempts. He's one of the main reasons I planned to use my FH in 34 but is he value for money?

Like Hazard recently, I don't really want to be spending huge amounts on a player who seems more likely to assist. Pogba provides an alternative, he is the one driving into the penalty area, and we know from early season performances that this is a strength of his. So at the moment DDG, Pogba, Lukaku are my chosen three.

Leicester I like, value all over the pitch. I was encouraged by Pereyra's performance for Watford against Burnley in the last match, I think Mahrez can pose a similar threat. I don't think they've looked great at the back, but Maguire aside they offer good value. I like Chilwell, I think he's been playing well and I'm not too worried about rotation for him as I don't think it's really a DGW for Leicester - they simply play their GW35 fixture a couple of days earlier.

Burnley again offer value. Pope's form is keeping him in goal, they have the huge incentive of a Europa league place to aim for. I'm not such a huge fan of Wood or Barnes as forward options; Leicester and Chelsea haven't looked great at the back but I wouldn't expect them to let in a lot of goals.

Southampton - I thought they did well against Arsenal, who didn't have a shot on target until they scored. The style seems to be compact and to concede possession, hit on the break. Long definitely suits the tactics more than Austin, but perhaps both can play together. They are learning what the manager wants but will do well to get anything from Chelsea and Leicester. Although they could possibly get a result at Leicester, if they can take encouragement from a disciplined Newcastle display. Is Cedric a trap?

I like West Ham - I would add Masuaku to Arnautovic as an option, I think he makes a big difference to them, he wasn't out injured so has looked fresh coming back into the team.

Salah - if we are saying Kane wants the golden boot, then Salah's reaction yesterday clearly shows he does too. Will awarding the goal to Kane have motivated Salah to score a hatful of goals against Bournemouth? After such a big victory against City in the CL I would expect a slightly flat performance afterwards but maybe Kane has provided the motivation. Fitness is a concern, at least we should get the Liverpool team news early.

So today's draft :)

DDG
Azpi, Chilwell, Masuaku
Pogba, Mahrez, Willian, Arnautovic
Kane, Morata, Lukaku


£0.1m ITB, would prefer Alonso to Azpi but 0.2 short.
There's also the Courtois + Valencia option instead of DDG + Azpi, which would allow me to upgrade Masuaku.

Salah option (£0.8m ITB):

DDG
Chilwell, Morgan, Lowton
Salah, Pogba, Willian, Arnautovic
Kane, Morata, Lukaku


Still plenty to ponder. I don't remember it being this taxing when I played the Yahoo game!

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by Stemania »

With Mee ruled out of the DGW (and possibly for the season) I'd have thought Kevin Long would be a great enabler for you free-hitters now, possibly helping fund an upgrade on the prevalent SGW Arnie, or even a rotation threatened Chilwell/Smalling etc, or a Barnes to a Murray. :)

On Smalling, for United Jones/Bailly/Lindelof could easily get games, especially in match 2 when Mourinho will have an eye on the FA cup. I'd guess even Christensen might even have more chance of playing two than Smalling as it is, maybe 2 PL games each for Cahill/Rudiger/Cahill over 33-34, with Christensen already having missed one? Tough price point that.

Just glancing through, I'm quite surprised by the number of instances of Morata btw. If Chelsea are to rotate, at least with a player like Willian you're only spending circa 7m. Morata is 10.4m and has such an obvious threat in one-for-one rotation with Giroud, where at least Hazard and Willian just have one major player (Pedro) to avoid between them. Unless Barkley suddenly rises from the ashes or Conte panics to 352 that is.

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by TopMarx »

Stemania wrote: 12 Apr 2018, 16:37 With Mee ruled out of the DGW (and possibly for the season) I'd have thought Kevin Long would be a great enabler for you free-hitters now, possibly helping fund an upgrade on the prevalent SGW Arnie, or even a rotation threatened Chilwell/Smalling etc, or a Barnes to a Murray. :)

On Smalling, for United Jones/Bailly/Lindelof could easily get games, especially in match 2 when Mourinho will have an eye on the FA cup. I'd guess even Christensen might even have more chance of playing two than Smalling as it is, maybe 2 PL games each for Cahill/Rudiger/Cahill over 33-34, with Christensen already having missed one? Tough price point that.

Just glancing through, I'm quite surprised by the number of instances of Morata btw. If Chelsea are to rotate, at least with a player like Willian you're only spending circa 7m. Morata is 10.4m and has such an obvious threat in one-for-one rotation with Giroud, where at least Hazard and Willian just have one major player (Pedro) to avoid between them. Unless Barkley suddenly rises from the ashes or Conte panics to 352 that is.
Yes Long does help for sure.

Given that Morata could play one game and is a similar price to Salah, I mean would you rather have Salah or Morata? I think we'd probably all plump for Salah. I'm frustratingly 0.1 away from:

DDG
Alonso, Chilwell, Long
Salah, Pogba, Willian, Arnie
Kane, Lukaku, Vardy


I think I'm always destined to be 0.1 away from my perfect line-up! Of course I could just go without Salah, Mahrez would give me 1.5 ITB. Precisely enough to do Vardy to Morata... looking forward to Conte's press conference :)

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by jacksosi »

TopMarx wrote:
DDG
Alonso, Chilwell, Long
Salah, Pogba, Willian, Arnie
Kane, Lukaku, Vardy


I think I'm always destined to be 0.1 away from my perfect line-up! Of course I could just go without Salah, Mahrez would give me 1.5 ITB. Precisely enough to do Vardy to Morata... looking forward to Conte's press conference :)
Alonso Image️ Azpi to get your 0.1?

Hjuud
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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by Hjuud »

After a bit more tinkering here is where I am currently.

Courtois
Smalling Morgan Long (and only playing sub Masuaku)
Sanchez Alli Son Mahrez Pogba
Kane Vardy

Hopefully the final decisions are:
1. Masuaku and Son or Christensen and Willian (and bench Long)
2. Sanchez or Lukaku
3. Play with four midfielders (Sanchez Pogba Son Mahrez) and four at the back (Alonso, Azpiliqueta, Morgan, Long + De Gea) After all this might be my favourite line up!

So atm the players that are locked in are:

Morgan Long + rotter
Spurs mid, Mahrez, Pogba
Kane Vardy

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by TopMarx »

jacksosi wrote: 12 Apr 2018, 17:48 Alonso Image️ Azpi to get your 0.1?
Absolutely he would, I can do that. It's just the fear of missing out on an Alonso haul.

Really I need to make my mind up about Salah + Vardy vs Mahrez + Morata.

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by Stemania »

Or Simpson over Chilwell? Might even get slightly more chance of two starts (despite far less attacking threat). No idea why he went off before the hour mark last game though.

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by Tallerico »

Great thread - thanks all

I was pretty settled on my initial FH draft, but it would be rude not to have a little tinker. Thoughts on the following would be most welcome

DDG
Alonso Tarkowski Morgan
Salah Willian Mahrez Lingard
Kane Lukaku Vardy

or

Courtois/Schmeichel
Alonso Tarkowski Valencia
Salah Willian Mahrez Pogba
Kane Lukaku Barnes

Essentially, DDG+Morgan+Lingard+Vardy vs Courtois/Schmeichel+Valencia+Pogba+Barnes

Option 1 covers my superleague rivals a little better, who all WC32/33 and I assume will be BB34....

Is this a coin toss, or does anyone see a big differential in the two options?

PS Salah => Eriksen likely if Salah seems unlikely to start

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by TopMarx »

Stemania wrote: 12 Apr 2018, 18:28 Or Simpson over Chilwell? Might even get slightly more chance of two starts (despite far less attacking threat). No idea why he went off before the hour mark last game though.
Yes Simpson. Amartey could be back to offer some competition, and Simpson tends to get subbed early if Leicester are chasing the game (Albrighton can drop into the RB slot). But he's definitely another option that I hadn't considered, thank you for the suggestion.

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by TopMarx »

Tallerico wrote: 12 Apr 2018, 18:31 DDG+Morgan+Lingard+Vardy vs Courtois/Schmeichel+Valencia+Pogba+Barnes
slightly prefer DDG to Courtois/Schmeichel
definitely prefer Valencia to Morgan
definitely prefer Pogba to Lingard
definitely prefer Vardy to Barnes

so the option without DDG and Vardy, just. You have Mahrez, so at least you have some Leicester attacking cover.

Is 3-5-2 an option if you drop Barnes down to a 4.5 fwd?

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Ghioster
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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by Ghioster »

Light defence and pretty heavy on top. Some considerations include:
- Double LEI def and Vardy meaning no Mahrez.
- Alonso and Willian is interchangeable as I have 0,3 in the bank with Alonso. At the moment I prefer Alonso (or maybe Azpi) to Willian.
- No Lukaku, but running with Sanchez as a differential as I am around 26k and chasing 10k.

DGG
Morgan - Chilwell - Long - Alonso
Alli - Eriksen - Sanchez - Pogba
Vardy - Kane

Any thoughts?

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by Tallerico »

TopMarx wrote: 12 Apr 2018, 18:53
Tallerico wrote: 12 Apr 2018, 18:31 DDG+Morgan+Lingard+Vardy vs Courtois/Schmeichel+Valencia+Pogba+Barnes
slightly prefer DDG to Courtois/Schmeichel
definitely prefer Valencia to Morgan
definitely prefer Pogba to Lingard
definitely prefer Vardy to Barnes

so the option without DDG and Vardy, just. You have Mahrez, so at least you have some Leicester attacking cover.

Is 3-5-2 an option if you drop Barnes down to a 4.5 fwd?
Thanks buddy

No, not to 3-5-2. I would only be able to scrape my base midfielder up to about 6.0 and I don't really fancy anyone in that range. 4-4-2 would be the other option with vertonghen but I'm not too sold on that. Hmmm.

Round and round I go!

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by bigcliff2 »

Latest...

Courtois
Valencia, Morgan, Long
Sanchez, Alli, Willian, Fraser
Kane, Lukaku, Vardy

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by Curwinkle »


All change for me since my first draft.

Big question for me is Do DDG, Pogba and Alonso

Outscore Courtois, Klavan and Sanchez.

[Courtois or DDG]
Smalling Chilwell Long [Klavan or Alonso]
Eriksen Son [Sanchez or Pogba]
Morata Kane Vardy

I have exact funds for this team with one combo or the other. Currently leaning towards Court Klav Sanch. Kane will be Capt regardless so that doesn't have a bearing on if I want Sanchez or not

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by SteveieB123 »

I'm still not decided on the free hit team for this week, but I just want to say a big thank you to all the contributors to this thread as it has certainly opened up some ideas I hadn't previously even considered. Anyway....

So this game is supposed to be fun....right?

Not an overly serious suggestion (so look away now!!) but....assuming Romeu plays this week...you could have the screenshot team shown. it does make me stop for a second and think " I do want those players "! Imagine choosing a captain from that lot.

Just a bit of light relief for those that haven't slept much this week weighing up all the options!!
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GW34 Free Hit

Post by shmiro »

Late night tinkering.
My team currently:

Image

I’m thinking to play with it a bit to make it:

Image

It is just:
DDG, Azpi, => Courtois, Pogba

For sure more fun. But do u think it worth it?


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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by Miketelly »

shmiro wrote: 13 Apr 2018, 01:43 Late night tinkering.
My team currently:

Image

I’m thinking to play with it a bit to make it:

Image

It is just:
DDG, Azpi, => Courtois, Pogba

For sure more fun. But do u think it worth it?


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I actually prefer the second one. This is the time to bring in pogba.

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by Ruth_NZ »

These huge screen grabs make my eyes ache. Maybe I'm the only one?
Much better for me anyway if it's smaller.
For a FH I think the 2nd is better too.

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by swadd1er »

Still on the following:

Courtois
Chilwell, Smalling, Lowton (Long sub)
Pogba, Eriksen, Mahrez, Willian
Kane, Vardy, Lukaku

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by No Way Jose »

Seems the Mee injury is a godsend for some as he allows a base price 1st sub to cover for any no shows and maximise your budget. He'll be in my FH35 team no doubt!

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GW34 Free Hit

Post by shmiro »

Thanks Ruth and Mike.

So the only thing left for me is to decide between Son and Willian.
Both are rotation risks.

Should the fact that I already have 2 Spurs’ attackers and no Chelsea’s affect my decision?


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Last edited by shmiro on 13 Apr 2018, 10:57, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by elliot »

I'm surprised that so many of the FH teams have gone without Salah. What's the rationale behind this?

At home to Bournemouth, you would be expecting Salah to get about 8-15 points. Are the equivalently priced DGW players expected to do that well?

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by shmiro »

swadd1er wrote:Still on the following:

Courtois
Chilwell, Smalling, Lowton (Long sub)
Pogba, Eriksen, Mahrez, Willian
Kane, Vardy, Lukaku
I prefer Sanchez to Lukaku. But that looks really strong anyway.
Maybe Morgan as the only Leicester defender is better because he is more nailed.


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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by tarkens »

Courtois, Alonso and Son

or

De Gea, Smalling and Alli/Eriksen

?

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by bigcliff2 »

elliot wrote: 13 Apr 2018, 10:58 I'm surprised that so many of the FH teams have gone without Salah. What's the rationale behind this?

At home to Bournemouth, you would be expecting Salah to get about 8-15 points. Are the equivalently priced DGW players expected to do that well?
My team doesn't have him because I'm waiting for (hoping for) confirmation of him whether he's likely to play. If he seems to be, then he'll probably have to go in for me... It would be much handier if he was confirmed rested.

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Re: GW34 Free Hit

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Ruth_NZ wrote: Boy, you guys are fast. I deleted that post almost immediately because I realised it had to be wrong - otherwise with 2 coin spins the chance of at least one head would be 100%. :lol:
There must be something in here about the maximum being 200% (2 CSs) I guess. But I'm not a mathematician and I know I expressed it badly. Sorry. :oops:

I think I have figured it out now and that it's a question of how the numbers are used.

In strict mathematical terms I was wrong to say that Leicester have a 75% chance of a CS this week. That's clear.

The problem is that what we are concerned with is FPL points. So, normally when we say that a team has, say, a 50% chance of a CS we are projecting 2 points as the expected outcome. Obviously it won't be 2 points because either it's a CS or it isn't, but that's the reasonable expectation. If that game were played 10 times you'd probably get 5 CSs, so 2 CS points per game. That's all pretty simple thus far I think.

When a team has two games in a week it gets more complicated in terms of language. By saying that I thought that Leicester had a 75% CS chance this week I was essentially projecting 3 CS points as the expectation. It is strictly incorrect to call that a 75% CS chance but in terms of points expectation is is correct, and it is actually assessed by adding the two probabilities, not multiplying them. That's why FFF projects United to get 1.02 CSs this week. I might call that a 102% chance of a CS and have mathematicians up in arms about my misuse of the numbers but I'd know what I meant even if no-one else did. :lol:

Essentially it is mathematically illiterate (I think) to say that United have a 200% chance of a CS, right? Because it can't be more than 100%. But if they were certain to get 2 CSs in a week then it would be correct in terms of the end result for FPL. So the problem is one of language and I don't really know what better language to use than to say Leicester have a 75% chance of a CS in my opinion, which number is produced by addition not multiplication.

If I have got this wrong (still) then please help. But I have had this at the back of my mind for 24 hours and that's the best explanation I can come up with. :|

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