GW34 Free Hit

[Resonare]

Salah is definitely back, don't know what to do now. He wasn't included on my first draft.

I'll probably be hanging on.

Okay. So here we are, draft 4! Essentially draft 3 but with a 433 instead of a 343. I've renamed this draft the FINAL draft (I hope!)

Essentially a swap from Lingaard and Groß to Arnie and Smalling. Still not convinced Smalling will play both games but I like the higher ceiling of the potential points on offer from this duo assuming they play anyway.

As ever, ignore captaincy as I won't decide on this until I've decided on the starting XI.

I like the team but a big 50-50 will be Hazard/Mahrez vs Salah/Alli.

Ok I think I’m close to my final lineup for the FH. I’m rolling with the 3-5-2. The spots that are most in question are Alonso, Lingard, and Alli. Other possible choices for those are some kind of combo of Azpi, Valencia, Pogba, Willian and Son. My current draft also leaves 0.0 ITB.

Would love any feedback.

Cheers!

Looks good if you fancy Hazard over Salah this week. I've owned Hazard for these past two home games and honestly can't wait to get rid.

As well as chipping in and commenting I have been working on my own squad and I think that I am getting there with my Free Hit team. The following leaves me with £0.4m to play around the edges, or to ensure a playing 12th man.

Sanchez/Lukaku - yes, there’s a case for Sanchez. What is true is that both are difficult to squeeze in. In truth the decision came down to money sitting on the bench.
Man U and Chelsea in defence - more pros for Man U, more cons for Chelsea, but by going for Courtois I at least look for save points. I am £0.2m away from DDG & Azpi instead of Courtois & Valencia. Is a sideways move from Chilwell to (risky) Long (£4m Burnley) worth it?

Midfield - difficult to look past attack minded Spurs with City licking their wounds and an easier 2nd game.
Willian - not very excited by this, but with 2 Man U in defence I had to get rid of Pogba. Arnautovic has his fans. I know he can score well against anyone and will be motivated, but I’d prefer a Doubler if there is one more out there.

That’s the thought process. Please pull it apart if it can be improved. Thanks

8F9ADCDD-9D24-4ED0-B8EC-6636E3B6CF31.jpeg

Eriksen Alli allows for DDG and Azpi.

[Ruth_NZ]

Do you think Pogba is a better prospect than Smalling for the DGW? He may also suffer from rotation and I’m not convinced he’ll play again that forward on the pitch against bottom teams.
Yes, I do think so. I very much doubt he'll be rotated and doubt he'll be constrained in CM either. Mourinho is too clever to throw water on a fire he has been desperate to get to ignite.

I’m also not sure about the “compromise” with Son instead of Eriksen. If I was guaranteed that Son starts both games then I would choose him over Eriksen regardless of price. But with this schedule and many alternatives on the bench, I think there is a significant chance he will rest in one of the games. Don’t you?
Not any more, not after how Pochettino has spoken about Son over the last couple of months. Put it this way - I am much less concerned about his rotation risk than I used to be. But I agree that Eriksen is a bit more sure to start both.

By the way, how confident do you (or anyone else) feel about Chilwell and Willian starting both games?
Chilwell 90% - Leicester play Saturday-Thursday and then there's a long gap to the next game. No need to rotate unless Puel really wants to and the evidence is that he firmly prefers Chilwell to Fuchs. Willian 50% - as said to SP above I don't believe that Pedro will be perma-benched.

[Ruth_NZ]

Leicester look to have a very high (75%? 80%?) chance of at least one CS

Really?

I probably expressed it badly.
I just checked on FFF and they project 0.75 CSs for Leicester this week. Maybe that's not quite the same as saying they have a 75% chance of a CS but that was what I was trying to get at. I think.

[bigcliff2]

Willian needs to go in as an insurance policy against the folk who brought him in 32 and 33 wildcards, for me anyway, because in my leagues all the guys I care about did just that.

I think the two big decisons for me are coming down to 1) Do I go with or without Salah and 2) which 6.0-ish player do I go with in mid/for.

[Resonare]

Leicester look to have a very high (75%? 80%?) chance of at least one CS

Really?

You need to add the CS chances, not multiply them, no? If each are 35%-40% then the chance of at least one is 70%-80%.
That means that there's also a roughly 15% chance of two and a roughly 15% chance of none. Something like that. Unless my maths have deserted me.

No, you multiply the odds of no CS then minus it from 100%.

E.g. 40% in each of the two games is 64% of 1+ CSs.

[MoSe]

Leicester look to have a very high (75%? 80%?) chance of at least one CS

Really?

You need to add the CS chances, not multiply them, no? If each are 35%-40% then the chance of at least one is 70%-80%.

OMG

does the lol mean it was tongue in cheek?

you actually DO have to MULTIPLY them for each case, and properly sum all the cases

say 40% of a CS each game (just makes calculations easier to folow)

2 CS = 40% * 40% = 16%

1 CS:
40% * 60% = 24%
60% * 40% = 24%
1 CS = 24% + 24% = 48%

NO CS = 60% * 60% = 36%

so the chance to get either 1 or 2 CS (i.e. at least one) is 64%, NOT 80%

with 35% it would be NO CS = 42.25% so at least 1 CS = 57.75% ( NOT 70%)

EDIT: x-post with Resonare, but there it goes the same

[shmiro]

Not any more, not after how Pochettino has spoken about Son over the last couple of months. Put it this way - I am much less concerned about his rotation risk than I used to be. But I agree that Eriksen is a bit more sure to start both.

Chilwell 90% - Leicester play Saturday-Thursday and then there's a long gap to the next game. No need to rotate unless Puel really wants to and the evidence is that he firmly prefers Chilwell to Fuchs. Willian 50% - as said to SP above I don't believe that Pedro will be perma-benched.

Well, I could then downgrade Barnes to just do Willian => Son

What do u think about that? Too reliant on spurs’ attack? (When one of the games is against City...)

My team would then look like this:

DDG
Azpi Smalling Chilwell Morgan
Eriksen Son Sanchez Arnie
Kane Vardy


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[Ruth_NZ]

Boy, you guys are fast. I deleted that post almost immediately because I realised it had to be wrong - otherwise with 2 coin spins the chance of at least one head would be 100%.

There must be something in here about the maximum being 200% (2 CSs) I guess. But I'm not a mathematician and I know I expressed it badly. Sorry.

PS for MoSe: no, the LOL means I am an idiot. Also probably that I'm not very good at emojis because I seem to upset people with them. The laughing one isn't meant to be laughing at someone in my mind (well, not usually) but maybe that is actually what it does mean. In which I perhaps better not use it at all.

[Ruth_NZ]

Well, I could then downgrade Barnes to just do Willian => Son.
What do u think about that? Too reliant on Spurs’ attack?

I think Son is a slightly better pick than Willian, yes. But the comments I offered before were more aimed towards getting Pogba to be honest. Who knows? They were just my thoughts.

[tarkens]

I need to find 1.9 savings

De Gea (Nortfeldt)
Smalling Lowton Chilwell (Rosenior Goldson)
Sanchez Arnautovic Son Mahrez (Romeu)
Kane Morata Vardy

any obvious candidate to make way?

[MoSe]

I need to find 1.9 savings

you've been maybe too ambitious?
and you proved once more WRONG all the solons who endlessly posted "by now Team Value is irrelevant"

[tarkens]

i didn't pay attention to TV this season pretty much at all and i'm on £104.0
i think last year at this stage of the season it was £107.0 or something like that

[shmiro]

As well as chipping in and commenting I have been working on my own squad and I think that I am getting there with my Free Hit team. The following leaves me with £0.4m to play around the edges, or to ensure a playing 12th man.

I would change Alonso to Azpi and Son to Mahrez.
I think Azpi has a better chance to start both games, and Mahrez is a better prospect for this DGW. I’m still torn between him and double Leicester def.

How do u feel about Son’s chances to start both games? For some reason I feel like he is almost certain not to start the Brighton game...

[Miketelly]

Ok I think I’m close to my final lineup for the FH. I’m rolling with the 3-5-2. The spots that are most in question are Alonso, Lingard, and Alli. Other possible choices for those are some kind of combo of Azpi, Valencia, Pogba, Willian and Son. My current draft also leaves 0.0 ITB. Would love any feedback.

I think that looks really good to be honest and it would be the same 3 players I'd still be looking at.
How much compromise on Alonso would be necessary in order to get Pogba and Son instead of Alli and Lingard? That's maybe what it comes down to.

Ok, I've headed your advice and am on the current team:

DDG
Vertonghen - Morgan - Chilwell
Arnoutovic - Son - Pogba - Sanchez
Vardy - Kane - Morata

I have .5 ITB and can downgrade DDG to maybe Courtois for the possible save points and upgrade Vertonghen to Valencia.

[TopMarx]

Ok, I've headed your advice and am on the current team:

DDG
Vertonghen - Morgan - Chilwell
Arnoutovic - Son - Pogba - Sanchez
Vardy - Kane - Morata

I have .5 ITB and can downgrade DDG to maybe Courtois for the possible save points and upgrade Vertonghen to Valencia.

You have a good TV! I would swap Son for Mahrez and obviously lose a Leicester defender. Go for one of the Burnley options. Very strong team that.

[Smurphy Paw]

Thanks for the comments all.
Resonare, my favourite was the Eriksen to Alli observation, staring me in the face but hidden in plain view.
Ruth, as thorough and comprehensive as always. Much appreciated.
Schmiro, thanks. I have had Alonso for a while and so, for me, I lose not gain by switching him for Azpi. Whether or not I have both, I am still undecided. I am going to lose Willian though. I expect he’ll do really well if I do, but Ruth’s observation about Pedro sways me. (Oh, Schmiro, by the way, if he’s not going to be on the pitch you should use the cash tied up in Barnes. That’s what I was driving at with my questions)
After a long day out I need to play around again with the fine tuning and see what I’m left with (apart from a longing to play 4 Man U players - Valencia or Pogba? Pogba or Valencia? What an unfair choice that is!)

Clean sheet odds: I’ve seen Ruth’s source for Leicester’s 0.75 chance. From the same source Man U are at 1.02. Clearly they’re not pure odds, but it was Ruth’s explanation that was awry not the numbers. I interpret it as a 51% chance of Man U clean sheet over the two games, 37.5% for the Foxes. It’s a source that is typically used to single game weeks and it is not clear for the Double.
As for his emoji use...

[tarkens]

FH activated, going for 3-5-2 atm:

De Gea
Smalling Morgan Lowton
Alli Arnautovic Sanchez Mahrez Willian
Kane Vardy

Nordfeldt Ogbonna Rosenior Campbell

[TopMarx]

I am going to lose Willian though. I expect he’ll do really well if I do, but Ruth’s observation about Pedro sways me.

Question for Ruth really, but if Pedro is not perma-benched, why wouldn't Hazard be rested instead of Willian? Surely more important to protect Hazard for the FA cup semis. Or are we essentially saying there's a risk around both?

It's frustrating because I think Chelsea have been unlucky recently, and I don't think it's possible for them to maintain such a low goal conversion rate (under 8%). I feel they will get chances v Burnley and Southampton, but trying to pick the right players is giving me a headache! I'm now keen on making Morata part of my FH team, at the expense of Lukaku, or possibly Kane...

[Ruth_NZ]

OK, well I'm not inside Conte's head, right? So I can only go on my best reading.

I don't think that saving players for FAC is what it is about really, especially not with Southampton as opponents. Southampton also have to play Thursday-Sunday and they won't be resting anyone in the PL. The teams are on equal terms. That's not an issue.

It's more about fresh legs when there are three games in a week. Conte has tended to try to refresh the team to some degree when that's the case. In the case of Hazard he has tended to start him but sub him off after 70 minutes or so when he can. In the case of Willian and Pedro he has tended to vary which one he benches or to play both with Hazard false #9.

What happens next week may be down to something as simple as who gets a little knock or who looks particularly bright in training. But my underlying assessment is that Pedro remains a 1st team player in Conte's mind and will start some games. If so then he'll probably start one this week and if that happens it would seem more likely to me that Willian makes way than anyone else. Simple as that really.

[Smurphy Paw]

Picking a team for a one-off set of fixtures, form is as much of a consideration as fixtures and we don’t have the luxury of ‘waiting for them to come good’. With Chelsea players, part of the consideration is that they have not been consistent FPL performers of late. For a while Ruth and others have been counselling caution, only picking one from the team, etc. I was already uncertain about Willian and the Pedro thing just provided me with the rationale to be able to remove. If you like, I was looking for a reason.

Which prompts me to question why I’m consider spending close to £14m on their defence. If the lower cost players weren’t at risk of rotation I would save a bit. Their attacking defenders do seem to be the most likely route to positive returns though and given the DGW pool of players is smaller I think that 2 players is reasonable.

Further forward, Morata is on my watchlist. I don’t think he’s a bad shout, I’d like to see reassurance that he’s likely to outscore Lukaku or Kane though TM. That’d be a big call to make unless it’s to enable three Spurs/Man U further back.
Regarding midfield rotation, Morata’s (improved) level of fitness is the reason why I can’t see Hazard being asked to play the false-9 role. Wherever he plays, as their best player and most likely to make something positive happen I see no reason why Hazard would be rested unless it is fitness or injury related. And round in circles I could go, all of which brings me back to questioning the FH inclusion of Willian if budget allows someone else!

How’s your FH team looking TopMarx?

[shmiro]

Thanks for the
Schmiro, thanks. I have had Alonso for a while and so, for me, I lose not gain by switching him for Azpi. Whether or not I have both, I am still undecided. I am going to lose Willian though. I expect he’ll do really well if I do, but Ruth’s observation about Pedro sways me. (Oh, Schmiro, by the way, if he’s not going to be on the pitch you should use the cash tied up in Barnes. That’s what I was driving at with my questions)

Oh, I see. I guess that Alonso is fine then (although a bit less likely to start both games imo).

I got your advice re Barnes, and indeed replaced him with a 4.5.

Since I advised u to get Mahrez I’m tempted to do it myself on the expense of the double Leicester defence. The only problem is that I can’t find any other cheap defender that I think can get even 1 clean sheet.


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[lorocator]

Hi guys, this will be probably my team. Not so sure about Willian though. ITB 0.0. A quick advise please. Thanks.

20180412_080109.jpg

[Ruth_NZ]

Hi guys, this will be probably my team. Not so sure about Willian though. ITB 0.0. A quick advise please. Thanks.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I'd prefer Arnie to Willian. Apart from that it looks like a pretty flawless team. Personally I think a Leicester defender in there would release some useful budget but as it's not clear where you could usefully put it to use that may not be necessary. Very nice team anyway.

[Ruth_NZ]

DDG
Vertonghen - Morgan - Chilwell
Arnoutovic - Son - Pogba - Sanchez
Vardy - Kane - Morata

I have .5 ITB and can downgrade DDG to maybe Courtois for the possible save points and upgrade Vertonghen to Valencia.

Looks great, Morata is an ever so slightly risky choice that could easily pay off big-time. I think your Courtois/Valencia wiggle is worth consideration too. It's interesting, because the FH allows you to do things that you wouldn't do if you were thinking longer term. I'd far rather have DDG than Courtois from GW34-38. But for GW34 only your alternative pair - Courtois/Valencia - looks to have a fairly good chance to beat DDG/Vertonghen, simply because Spurs only have one realistic CS chance whereas Chelsea and United have two.

Nice team anyway and very good luck.

[lorocator]

Thanks Ruth_NZ, I'll take that in mind. Definitely Arnie sounds like a safe bet.

[um09a2k]

A quick question about the Free Hit.

If I use my FT before playing the FH, after the FH week is over will the FT I made before playing the FH be separated or does it get counted in the free hit? Hope that makes sense.

[shmiro]

So following a few suggestions I gave to people here, I’m wondering whether the Leicester double defence really worth it. Yes, they are the best cheap option (by far). But one has to consider that it also prevents you from getting Mahrez (assuming u got Vardy anyway).

Mahrez ceiling is much much higher than a defender of course, and as a merger of fact I think he is at least as good a prospect as a Spurs’ mid, if not better. He is 99.9% nailed, got 2 good fixtures (and a nice rest in between), and got the skill of course. A 15+ points haul wouldn’t surprise anyone I think.
So the only thing left to do is compare him to spurs’ midfielders (Eriksen and Son cause I think they are the best options there):

Son - Son is more dangerous but is also in danger of rotation. The first game for him is against City who wouldn’t want to continue their horror shows recently (it could go either way however). I think it is very likely he will start against City and then rest against Brighton as it is 3 days later and 4 before the cup.
Eriksen - he is also 99% nailed I believe and got the skill of course, but in some games he just drops too deep and doesn’t get too many scoring/assisting opportunities. It is just difficult (for me) to determine when it should happen. With Mahrez u can be more confident that he will find himself in many scoring opportunities.
Eriksen also has the same first game “problem” (not re rotation but just that it is a difficult one).

What’s your thoughts on this?


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[Ruth_NZ]

If I use my FT before playing the FH, after the FH week is over will the FT I made before playing the FH be separated or does it get counted in the free hit? Hope that makes sense.

It gets eradicated. You can't make any effective change to your underlying team in FH week.

[tarkens]

i keep making changes and now switched back to 3-4-3

De Gea
Alonso Morgan Lowton
Pogba Mahrez Arnautovic Willian
Kane Lukaku Vardy

does it look better than 3-5-2 I posted earlier?

De Gea
Smalling Morgan Lowton
Alli Arnautovic Sanchez Mahrez Willian
Kane Vardy

[TopMarx]

OK, well I'm not inside Conte's head, right? So I can only go on my best reading.

I don't think that saving players for FAC is what it is about really, especially not with Southampton as opponents. Southampton also have to play Thursday-Sunday and they won't be resting anyone in the PL. The teams are on equal terms. That's not an issue.

It's more about fresh legs when there are three games in a week. Conte has tended to try to refresh the team to some degree when that's the case. In the case of Hazard he has tended to start him but sub him off after 70 minutes or so when he can. In the case of Willian and Pedro he has tended to vary which one he benches or to play both with Hazard false #9.

What happens next week may be down to something as simple as who gets a little knock or who looks particularly bright in training. But my underlying assessment is that Pedro remains a 1st team player in Conte's mind and will start some games. If so then he'll probably start one this week and if that happens it would seem more likely to me that Willian makes way than anyone else. Simple as that really.

Perfectly sensible point of view, thank you for sharing