GW34 Free Hit

[GafferTape]

Eriksen for me too.

[bigcliff2]

So after a week of mucking around, it's coming down to:

1. Alli or Mahrez (have both Vardy and Kane)
2. LLoris or Courtois (no defs from these teams)

1. The first one is tight, Leicester arguably have the better fixtures but Alli has the slightly better form. Both seem fairly nailed on to me.

2. Obviously most people are going with Courtois here as the fixtures appear better at first glance, but I've got a niggling feeling about potential rotation for Courtois whereas I'd expect Lloris to definitely play both games. However, on the other hand Courtois guards against clean sheets from Chelsea defs that other people will have whereas Spurs defs aren't popular this GW.

[Huxley]

Any advice appreciated on:

DDG
Azpil Lowton Morgan Chilwell
Sanchez Eriksen Pogba Son
Kane Vardy

Vs

Courtois
Valencia Long Morgan Chilwell
Salah Pogba Son
Kane Vardy Lukaku

Essentially the second team shoehorns in Salah at the expense of Eriksen. Salah for one fixture or Eriksen for two?

Kind of annoyed because I had a lot of value locked up in Salah but 'sold' him earlier in the week. Now I have to buy him back at 10.5. My own stupid fault though

[Smurphy Paw]

@kitkatshuffler - I have a draft of the same team with Simpson as opposed to Chilwell

Midfield options: In order I would suggest Eriksen > Mahrez > Alli
I am, however, struggling to take my own advice

Courtois - is this real rotation risk or the general rotation anxiety that’s floating around?

Maths - thanks resonare in particular

@huxley - I feel your pain & watching for responses with interest

[Resonare]

I did the same for some of the popular dgw defenders, below are the points projected using appearance points, chance of CS and chance of goals.

Alonso 9.740548543
Smalling 9.643026249
Azpilicueta 8.042610886
Vertonghan 7.356963288
Chilwell 7.181801909
Morgan 7.113683887
Yoshida 7.030783598
Tarkowski 6.752333121

Interesting stuff, does Valencia do well?

Looking at a Courtois + Valencia alternative to DDG + Alonso.

I feel Courtois might escape Conte's rotation, doubt Alonso will. It's also cheaper.

Thank you

Valencia is roughly the same as Smalling in terms of projected points but close to Alonso in terms of value.

[TopMarx]

I did the same for some of the popular dgw defenders, below are the points projected using appearance points, chance of CS and chance of goals.

Alonso 9.740548543
Smalling 9.643026249
Azpilicueta 8.042610886
Vertonghan 7.356963288
Chilwell 7.181801909
Morgan 7.113683887
Yoshida 7.030783598
Tarkowski 6.752333121

Interesting stuff, does Valencia do well?

Looking at a Courtois + Valencia alternative to DDG + Alonso.

I feel Courtois might escape Conte's rotation, doubt Alonso will. It's also cheaper.

Thank you

Valencia is roughly the same as Smalling in terms of projected points but close to Alonso in terms of value.

Thank you, good to know - surely he (Valencia) is more nailed though?

Anyway it's academic, I've decided to go with DDG, plus two United attackers. Well, I say it's academic but I will no doubt change my mind again in the morning Thank you for the info

[Klaren]

Trying to decide between the two alternatives below. I'd really appreciate any suggestions.

Option 1:
De Gea
Morgan Long Azpilicueta
Salah Pogba Eriksen Willian
Wood Kane Lukaku

Option 2:
De Gea
Morgan Long Dunk
Salah Sanchez Mahrez Willian
Barnes Kane Lukaku

[Resonare]

I did the same for some of the popular dgw defenders, below are the points projected using appearance points, chance of CS and chance of goals.

Alonso 9.740548543
Smalling 9.643026249
Azpilicueta 8.042610886
Vertonghan 7.356963288
Chilwell 7.181801909
Morgan 7.113683887
Yoshida 7.030783598
Tarkowski 6.752333121

Interesting stuff, does Valencia do well?

Looking at a Courtois + Valencia alternative to DDG + Alonso.

I feel Courtois might escape Conte's rotation, doubt Alonso will. It's also cheaper.

Thank you

Valencia is roughly the same as Smalling in terms of projected points but close to Alonso in terms of value.

Thank you, good to know - surely he (Valencia) is more nailed though?

Anyway it's academic, I've decided to go with DDG, plus two United attackers. Well, I say it's academic but I will no doubt change my mind again in the morning Thank you for the info

Np. He's more nailed but isn't immune to rotation. I've convinced myself to go for Smalling instead because the money I'll save can be used to upgrade a rotation risk midfielder into a safer option, e.g. Valencia + Son Smalling + Eriksen.

[Resonare]

Trying to decide between the two alternatives below. I'd really appreciate any suggestions.

Option 1:
De Gea
Morgan Long Azpilicueta
Salah Pogba Eriksen Willian
Wood Kane Lukaku

Option 2:
De Gea
Morgan Long Dunk
Salah Sanchez Mahrez Willian
Barnes Kane Lukaku

Dunk to Chilwell and I reckon 2 doesn't look half bad

[Klaren]

Trying to decide between the two alternatives below. I'd really appreciate any suggestions.

Option 1:
De Gea
Morgan Long Azpilicueta
Salah Pogba Eriksen Willian
Wood Kane Lukaku

Option 2:
De Gea
Morgan Long Dunk
Salah Sanchez Mahrez Willian
Barnes Kane Lukaku

Dunk to Chilwell and I reckon 2 doesn't look half bad

Thanks for the advice! I agree that Leicester has a much better chance of CS, but two of my main rivals have 2 Brighton defenders in their BB squad this GW, so Dunk is there mostly for insurance against any unexpected CS from Brighton. Considering I have about 50 points lead though, I might just take the risk and go with double Leicester at the back.

[Resonare]

Thanks for the advice! I agree that Leicester has a much better chance of CS, but two of my main rivals have 2 Brighton defenders in their BB squad this GW, so Dunk is there mostly for insurance against any unexpected CS from Brighton. Considering I have about 50 points lead though, I might just take the risk and go with double Leicester at the back.

Yeah that's understandable. I'm more of a gambler though

In case anyone's wondering, here's my team below...

Courtois
Smalling Chilwell Long
Salah Eriksen Pogba Albrighton
Kane Lukaku Vardy

I think Vardy + Albrighton will outscore Mahrez + Barnes so I went with them. Eriksen over Alli is tough as I back Alli but the stats say Eriksen so I've gone with the stats

Courtois over Schmeichel is just to get something in case Alonso hauls, that way I'm left totally in the dust after the first game this weekend.

[MPTree]

On me hols, but here’s where I’ve ended up. This thread has been hugely influential in helping me organise my own thoughts, so thanks to all for your contributions.

[thekitkatshuffler]

Last minute jitters. Really starting to think Smalling and Son won't play both games, with the FA Cup semis so soon afterwards.

Considering Son Arnie and Smalling Valencia.

[TopMarx]

Thanks for the advice! I agree that Leicester has a much better chance of CS, but two of my main rivals have 2 Brighton defenders in their BB squad this GW, so Dunk is there mostly for insurance against any unexpected CS from Brighton. Considering I have about 50 points lead though, I might just take the risk and go with double Leicester at the back.

Yeah that's understandable. I'm more of a gambler though

In case anyone's wondering, here's my team below...

Courtois
Smalling Chilwell Long
Salah Eriksen Pogba Albrighton
Kane Lukaku Vardy

I think Vardy + Albrighton will outscore Mahrez + Barnes so I went with them. Eriksen over Alli is tough as I back Alli but the stats say Eriksen so I've gone with the stats

Courtois over Schmeichel is just to get something in case Alonso hauls, that way I'm left totally in the dust after the first game this weekend.

Looks good *thumbs up*

[Smurphy Paw]

Thanks for all the input and comments, including the couple that I didn't fully respond to. It's certainly been an interesting week...and now the wait!

My Free Hit final team, by the way, is:
Pope
Alonso Smalling Davies Morgan
Salah Pogba Son
Vardy Kane Lukaku (C)

Good luck all, here's to lots of green arrows by Thursday evening

[Huxley]

Thanks for all the input and comments, including the couple that I didn't fully respond to. It's certainly been an interesting week...and now the wait!

My Free Hit final team, by the way, is:
Pope
Alonso Smalling Davies Morgan
Salah Pogba Son
Vardy Kane Lukaku (C)

Good luck all, here's to lots of green arrows by Thursday evening

We have the same front six so good luck to you too!

[bigcliff2]

I went for:

Lloris
Smalling, Morgan, Long
Alli, Salah, Willian, Pogba
Kane, Lukaku (c), Vardy

[TopMarx]

With Mee ruled out of the DGW (and possibly for the season) I'd have thought Kevin Long would be a great enabler for you free-hitters now

What a gift for us FH34'ers!

Just glancing through, I'm quite surprised by the number of instances of Morata btw. If Chelsea are to rotate, at least with a player like Willian you're only spending circa 7m. Morata is 10.4m and has such an obvious threat in one-for-one rotation with Giroud, where at least Hazard and Willian just have one major player (Pedro) to avoid between them. Unless Barkley suddenly rises from the ashes or Conte panics to 352 that is.

Thank you for making me question my Morata selection, I went with Vardy instead. So far, so good.