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GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

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Valeron
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Valeron »

The fact he's making so many saves to keep a few clean sheets is a warning sign though. Sooner of later one of those shots will start going in per game. What I'm saying is burnely have been very fortunate to keep so many clean sheets so far, it won't continue. And when that happens, the bonus points dry up too. We've seen this happen before.

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jimwinn
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by jimwinn »

It's not fortunate to have a settled organised team - that's good management. A few injuries might be a problem but for now Burnley are solid.

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Valeron
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Valeron »

A settled, organized team that is conceding a lot of shots inside their box. It's pretty much guaranteed their defensive players will stop scoring at anything like this rate. The most overrated players in the game right now.

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Highlander12
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Highlander12 »

Looking at it now I can see a clean sheet for Burnley in their next fixture but then I’d expect them to concede in their next 4. Pope is good value but I’m sure this run can’t continue.

Actually considering going Courtois for GW14 to double up with Alonso for Chelsea’s ridiculous fixture run.

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Billy Bongo
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Billy Bongo »

People said this about Burnley last season, they kept going, and still being under estimated even now.

Well organised well motivated team with an extra yard in the tank for the manager.

Lost count last season how many fpl managers kept saying they were overrated

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eastcentral1
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by eastcentral1 »


Billy Bongo wrote: Well organised well motivated team with an extra yard in the tank for the manager.
But does this really explain the statistical anomaly that is Burnley? They may be well organised and motivated, but I'm not sure how that squares with the legitimate observations people are making about shots conceded (and also shots taken). Until someone comes up with a better explanation than they try hard, I can't see how they could keep this up. That's not to say they're still not good value compared to others. But surely they will regress.

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Joshhua
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Joshhua »

eastcentral1 wrote: 08 Nov 2017, 22:29
Billy Bongo wrote: Well organised well motivated team with an extra yard in the tank for the manager.
But does this really explain the statistical anomaly that is Burnley? They may be well organised and motivated, but I'm not sure how that squares with the legitimate observations people are making about shots conceded (and also shots taken). Until someone comes up with a better explanation than they try hard, I can't see how they could keep this up. That's not to say they're still not good value compared to others. But surely they will regress.
It looks like Dyche is approaching the game in a pure mathematical way indirectly using xG numbers.
First of all, couple of facts:
Burnley is the team with the most conceded shots in PL, but 49% of those shots are outside the box (most in the PL), 45% in 18 yards box (ranked 2nd), 8% in 6 yards box (ranked 3rd).
Burnley is also ranked 1st for blocks in the league (13 more than 2nd Brighton).

So looking at these stats, we could say following.
Yes, they concede most shots in the league, but Dyche doesn`t care about that. He cares from where those shots are coming and how many of his players are positioned between the shooter and the goalkeeper.
He let the teams shoot from the positions (or better said, situations) in which there is a very small chance they will score, but in return he pack the bodies in dangerous positions, hence the most blocks in PL. Simple, but effective. In this way he is also skewing the xG models as, I assume, it is also hard for them to take into account shot from 10 yards with 5 players between the shooter and the goal as this is not normal case in other matches. That`s why Pope and probably Heaton later are great for FPL as they profit very much from saves they are making with this strategy.

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Turd Ferguson
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Turd Ferguson »

Joshhua wrote: 08 Nov 2017, 23:15 In this way he is also skewing the xG models as, I assume, it is also hard for them to take into account shot from 10 yards with 5 players between the shooter and the goal as this is not normal case in other matches. That`s why Pope and probably Heaton later are great for FPL as they profit very much from saves they are making with this strategy.
If Burnley were a special case that beats the xGA system, it would show up in last years stats. On understat for goals from open play last year they had xGA of 38.5 and actual goals against of 37. This year they have xGA of 11.5 and actual goals against of 6. My conclusion is that they’ve been fortunate and some of these shots they’re conceding will creep inside the post. It makes me question whether to take Mee on my wildcard. I may stick with Pope because the high percentage of shots outside the box makes for easier saves and hence good potential for save points and bonus when they do keep a clean sheet.

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Joshhua
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Joshhua »

Turd Ferguson wrote: 09 Nov 2017, 02:42 This year they have xGA of 11.5 and actual goals against of 6. My conclusion is that they’ve been fortunate and some of these shots they’re conceding will creep inside the post.
I agree that the difference between goals conceded and xGA is too big to be explained only with Burnley strategy. They were fortunate, especially against Crystal Palace when Benteke and Dann missed clear-cut chances and had xG of 1.37, but if you go to understat and take a look at their last 6 games, there is no much difference between xGA and goals conceded. This big difference was accumulated in 3 games against Palace, Tottenham and Liverpool. These are last Burnley`s six games with goals conceded (xGA):
HUD 0 (0.31)
eve 0 (0.93)
WHM 1 (0.87)
mcy 3 (3.41)
NEW 0 (1.03)
sou 0 (0.79)

I`m really not trying to prove anything, just trying to find out how good Burnley really is. :D

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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by icefish »

I have two free transfers and a couple of options.

The one who is certain to go is Matt Ritchie. I will be getting in Zaha or Richarlison for him. Since I can´t do that in one transfer due to funds here´s what I´m thinking for the second transfer.

I might swap out Otamendi for Daniels/Dann but I kind of feel that would be short sighted. Man City´s fixtures are good and I can´t see Otamendi being anything other than a mainstay in Pep´s side. I might do it though, mind.

I could do Eriksen to Pogba/Sane for the other free. I think it is reasonable to shift out Eriksen. He will be playing two gruelling playoff matches in the int. break and will be playing Saturday morning in the North London Derby.

My third option is to upgrade Mbemba to a playing defender, and thus bolstering my squad before the Christmas period. That would mean doing a hit since I can´t afford to upgrade both Mbemba and Ritchie. The -4 would then be downgrading Eriksen or Otamendi. I would probably not hesitate to do it for Pogba but I´m not sure how long it takes him normally to get up to speed post injuries plus Man Utd are playing like mugs.

I could also get in Mane instead of Eriksen and double up with Salah, and downgrade Otamendi for a hit. But that leaves me with a hit and not taking care of Mbemba.

Any thoughts appreciated.

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Bixer
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Bixer »

2 frees for this break, I've already done Krul > Pope (Krul essentially originally being a cheap wildcard punt to help fund the rest of my team).

No obvious fires to put out anywhere else, so I think I'll be upgrading Jonny Evans or Danny Simpson with my second. Ideally Evans, as that frees up more funds, but then Simpson looks like he's on the verge of dropping in price, so I'm not sure if I should take advantage and beat that drop instead.

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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by RuudTheDudeVanTheMan »

Looking at either Silva :arrow: Richarlison or Aguero :arrow: Lukaku. Can afford to let Silva drop so will wait until after the intl games. If Pogba is back or Kak gets some goals for Belgium he will become a lot more appealing.

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eastcentral1
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by eastcentral1 »

Joshhua wrote: 08 Nov 2017, 23:15
eastcentral1 wrote: 08 Nov 2017, 22:29
Billy Bongo wrote: Well organised well motivated team with an extra yard in the tank for the manager.
But does this really explain the statistical anomaly that is Burnley? They may be well organised and motivated, but I'm not sure how that squares with the legitimate observations people are making about shots conceded (and also shots taken). Until someone comes up with a better explanation than they try hard, I can't see how they could keep this up. That's not to say they're still not good value compared to others. But surely they will regress.
It looks like Dyche is approaching the game in a pure mathematical way indirectly using xG numbers.
First of all, couple of facts:
Burnley is the team with the most conceded shots in PL, but 49% of those shots are outside the box (most in the PL), 45% in 18 yards box (ranked 2nd), 8% in 6 yards box (ranked 3rd).
Burnley is also ranked 1st for blocks in the league (13 more than 2nd Brighton).

So looking at these stats, we could say following.
Yes, they concede most shots in the league, but Dyche doesn`t care about that. He cares from where those shots are coming and how many of his players are positioned between the shooter and the goalkeeper.
He let the teams shoot from the positions (or better said, situations) in which there is a very small chance they will score, but in return he pack the bodies in dangerous positions, hence the most blocks in PL. Simple, but effective. In this way he is also skewing the xG models as, I assume, it is also hard for them to take into account shot from 10 yards with 5 players between the shooter and the goal as this is not normal case in other matches. That`s why Pope and probably Heaton later are great for FPL as they profit very much from saves they are making with this strategy.
Turd Ferguson wrote:
Joshhua wrote: 08 Nov 2017, 23:15 In this way he is also skewing the xG models as, I assume, it is also hard for them to take into account shot from 10 yards with 5 players between the shooter and the goal as this is not normal case in other matches. That`s why Pope and probably Heaton later are great for FPL as they profit very much from saves they are making with this strategy.
If Burnley were a special case that beats the xGA system, it would show up in last years stats. On understat for goals from open play last year they had xGA of 38.5 and actual goals against of 37. This year they have xGA of 11.5 and actual goals against of 6. My conclusion is that they’ve been fortunate and some of these shots they’re conceding will creep inside the post. It makes me question whether to take Mee on my wildcard. I may stick with Pope because the high percentage of shots outside the box makes for easier saves and hence good potential for save points and bonus when they do keep a clean sheet.

Some really interesting observations, thanks. What I take from this is that Burnley have been quite lucky, and should start conceding more goals. However, due to their tactics, the goalkeeper(s) and defenders might still represent decent value, as they concede a lot of shots from distance / get in a lot of blocks.

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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by BajanGooner »

I have 2FT and took out Fabianski for Pope. The guy arguing against Burnley seems to be angry he doesn't have in Mee, Ward or Pope. :lol: :lol: I'm not waiting around anymore to not have Pope, I am diving in. Missed out on his points after choosing Fabianski about 5 weeks ago. Doubling up as well because I already have Mee.

I have Mame Diouf as well that I need to get out and an easy option would be Glen Murray but obviously, he isn't a long-term option. Other than that it is Abraham. Or Calvert-Lewin.

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Turd Ferguson
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Turd Ferguson »

eastcentral1 wrote: 09 Nov 2017, 16:51
Some really interesting observations, thanks. What I take from this is that Burnley have been quite lucky, and should start conceding more goals. However, due to their tactics, the goalkeeper(s) and defenders might still represent decent value, as they concede a lot of shots from distance / get in a lot of blocks.
Yes, I think this is exactly the right conclusion. Burnley will certainly keep some clean sheets in the future. They're a well organized team. However, they aren't such obvious value for money as they might seem based on results so far. It's a tough call between them and the likes of Newcastle, Brighton, Simpson at Leicester, and Palace now that they're tightening up under Hodgson.

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Sutter Kane
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Sutter Kane »

Yeah almost all the first teamers at 4.5mn (defenders) are great value - just got to find the rotation that doesn't cost you lots of transfers. I have Mee and will stick of course; I will stick with Dunk too. Might go for Dann but not this week. I'm probably going to stick to the plan and go Kolasinac to Jones and Jesus to Lukaku this week for free, pending any injuries. An injury to Kun for example, would push me to keep Jesus and just outright ignore Lukaku. Other option is to change Vardy instead but I could only afford Daniels then. (and not have any money left over to get Dann, etc)

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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by No Way Jose »

RuudTheDudeVanTheMan wrote: 09 Nov 2017, 16:36 Looking at either Silva :arrow: Richarlison or Aguero :arrow: Lukaku. Can afford to let Silva drop so will wait until after the intl games. If Pogba is back or Kak gets some goals for Belgium he will become a lot more appealing.
I'm expecting a bench appearance from the pog

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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Desperado »

Really good conversation about Burnley's CS chances. What do you guys think is Foster to Pope for a hit a worth while move in the long term since one is seeming to rise and another due a drop? WBA has been woeful and Foster does not appeal as a playing option although there are NEW and CRY looming in the near future.

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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by jimwinn »

Yes it is worth a hit to ditch Foster imo

If you want to swerve Pope, then Grant is cheap keeper who did well last season. If Shawcross stays fit Stoke will become more resilient
Last edited by jimwinn on 10 Nov 2017, 09:06, edited 2 times in total.

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Joshhua
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Joshhua »

Desperado wrote: 09 Nov 2017, 21:00 Really good conversation about Burnley's CS chances. What do you guys think is Foster to Pope for a hit a worth while move in the long term since one is seeming to rise and another due a drop? WBA has been woeful and Foster does not appeal as a playing option although there are NEW and CRY looming in the near future.
I wouldn`t think a second about that hit.

P.S. Wanted to check if Pope was maybe called in the England squad for Germany and Brazil games to see if you should wait a bit with the transfer, so I entered in google Pope England. When I saw results, my first thought was google is broken, but then I realized three things:
1. My brain is too much FPL oriented.
2. Pope Adrian IV would be an awesome GK.
3. Google is doing pretty poor job in spying people. They should of known what I wanted to find out. :lol:

Desperado
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Desperado »

:lol: :lol: :lol:

And thanks for your responses.

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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Bixer »

Think I'm going to use my second transfer on a Tottenham defender. Arsenal in their next game aside (which still isn't that bad a fixture for them really), they've got some great fixtures coming up and after United look like the team most capable of keeping clean sheets.

It's a shame that all of the full backs are too prone to rotation and you've gotta go for one of the £6.0m CBs, but at the same time I don't think there's a great deal of value elsewhere for cheaper than that.

Panserjohan
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Panserjohan »

Our savior, the holy ghost -> Aguuuuuueroooo!

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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by RuudTheDudeVanTheMan »

Damn you Phil Jones!

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Oxford NZ
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Oxford NZ »

Mkhitaryan to Pogba or Firmino to King is my dilemma this week.
I will also see how Wood comes through the Peru world cup qualifier on Tuesday. He came on second half and made a couple of good moves but he will definitely start the away leg
Only one FT 2.3 itb
currently on
Fabianski (Foster )
Walker Azpi Daniels (Kola Clark)
Mkhitaryan Sane Gross Matic (Kante)
Kane Wood Firmino
Captains band on Firmino so far but I would love to give him the chop.
Advice appreciated as I seem to be doing better in the Eliteserien at the moment.

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Billy Bongo
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Billy Bongo »

Oxford NZ wrote:Mkhitaryan to Pogba or Firmino to King is my dilemma this week.
I will also see how Wood comes through the Peru world cup qualifier on Tuesday. He came on second half and made a couple of good moves but he will definitely start the away leg
Only one FT 2.3 itb
currently on
Fabianski (Foster )
Walker Azpi Daniels (Kola Clark)
Mkhitaryan Sane Gross Matic (Kante)
Kane Wood Firmino
Captains band on Firmino so far but I would love to give him the chop.
Advice appreciated as I seem to be doing better in the Eliteserien at the moment.
Why not Mkh Firmino to Salah King?

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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by thebillfella »

King not really doing it this year thus far. At £7m you'd be better off going for Abraham or Murray and using the extra £1.2m elsewhere in the team.

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Billy Bongo
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Billy Bongo »

Abraham hasn't impressed me at all and Bony could nick some points

Murray won't last the season imo

Desperado
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by Desperado »

Was there some fact about guaranteed minutes for Abraham as a part of the loan deal? I remember someome referring to that in the beginning of the season.

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dino1980
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Re: GW 12 Transfers - Deadline Saturday 18 Nov 11:30

Post by dino1980 »

Yeah, don't get the Josh King love. Abraham actually has better xG numbers this season than King did last season (0.43 xG p90 vs 0.36 xG p90) and they're shooting at a similar clip this season (2 shP90 vs 2.02 shP90). The problem for Abraham is obviously the impotence of the Swansea attack as a whole, they're ranked 14th/20th for xG, however that's four places higher than B'mouth. With the 1.1m saving over King, then Abraham has to be the value pick out of those two players.

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