2017/18 FPL Price Changes and Team Value Monitoring

[The Real Slim Shady]

If my player (Firmino) selling price is 8.5, and he's about to drop tonight from 8.6, to 8.5, will my selling price still be 8.5 after the drop?

[kingofpop]

If my player (Firmino) selling price is 8.5, and he's about to drop tonight from 8.6, to 8.5, will my selling price still be 8.5 after the drop?

yes

[Magic]

Will JESUS rice soon ???

At his last supper, perhaps.

[Markman]

Need them to change Chicarito's flag to protect him!!

[Markman]

Need them to change Chicarito's flag to protect him!!

And almost immediately it's gone! Going to have to assume that a high powered FPL person is lurking here. Hello there....

[Mav3rick]

Need them to change Chicarito's flag to protect him!!

And almost immediately it's gone! Going to have to assume that a high powered FPL person is lurking here. Hello there....

FPLS still has him (and the unflagged Davies) to drop tonight. Not sure if that's real or if their system hasn't updated after the unflagging, but both show as available (not flagged) on FPLS.

[Markman]

Need them to change Chicarito's flag to protect him!!

And almost immediately it's gone! Going to have to assume that a high powered FPL person is lurking here. Hello there....

FPLS still has him (and the unflagged Davies) to drop tonight. Not sure if that's real or if their system hasn't updated after the unflagging, but both show as available (not flagged) on FPLS.

And indeed he dropped despite having his flag removed around 22:30 GMT. Davies also.

[baganboy]

Kane and Davies dropped.
I hope the Fantasyfootballscout folks realize how they are influencing this game.
How many have Sterling as captain, would be the barometer.

[Mav3rick]

Carnage on my team last night, with Kane, Lukaku, Davies, Salah and Alli all dropping. Not all were effective price drops but the amount of droppers last night was pretty high, presumably due to the flow into city assets.

Removal of flags no longer resetting NTO is a big, big, rule change especially with the trigger happy flag system and the volume of sales on any flag.

In theory I think it should reduce overall prices and reduce the influence of team value, but it could mean we all have to get used to accepting more price drops than we would have before.

[Mav3rick]

Kane and Davies dropped.
I hope the Fantasyfootballscout folks realize how they are influencing this game.
How many have Sterling as captain, would be the barometer.

If they didn't talk about it (presumably they have advised loading up on city assets?) then the same advice would just come from here, transfer hub, or the myriad of FPL blogs.

It's down to FPL to control how transfer numbers reflect the market but I think this is probably just a case of market forces. The droppers and risers are for the most part the city enablers though so there has been a big effect.

[baganboy]

Mav- Hmm true. Much is the sadness. And in retrospect, perhaps the price madness has been largely controlled this year - so credit where it's due. I am just venting for the price drops, I guess.....

[eastcentral1]

Wow, yes so many drops last night. I've taken another drop on Alli.

[Mr Clarinet]

Kane and Davies dropped.

What's interesting about this is how little it takes to generate a price fall now. Kane had a 2-point week after back-to-back 13-point weeks. Davies was ill. They didn't do that much wrong...
I suppose it's the result of "everyone" playing HOHO; but for an individual manager prudent with paid-for transfers, it's hard to hop off more than one player on to another every GW, which is what the game's current price dynamics seem to necessitate.

In theory I think it should reduce overall prices and reduce the influence of team value, but it could mean we all have to get used to accepting more price drops than we would have before.

But why would they (FPL) want to reduce the influence of team value, when fluctuating prices is one of the distinctive features of the game? The empire strikes back at price prediction sites, surely not? Maybe they should just give us £100m for the season and current transfer arrangements but abolish the price changes.

[baganboy]

Maybe they should just give us £100m for the season and current transfer arrangements but abolish the price changes.

I can totally get onboard with this.

[Mo Bot]

Carnage on my team last night, with Kane, Lukaku, Davies, Salah and Alli all dropping. Not all were effective price drops but the amount of droppers last night was pretty high, presumably due to the flow into city assets.

Removal of flags no longer resetting NTO is a big, big, rule change especially with the trigger happy flag system and the volume of sales on any flag.

In theory I think it should reduce overall prices and reduce the influence of team value, but it could mean we all have to get used to accepting more price drops than we would have before.

If you’re more of a glass half full kind of person then I’d say that you’re in a good position to gain OR when the faith you’ve kept in these players pays off in terms of points. It also lessens the ‘I’m not selling him because I’ll lose too much TV’ argument when you do decide to sell them

[Mav3rick]

I considered selling each of them, but decided to keep. Admittedly, Alli was only about 80% to a drop, if he'd been closer I might have sold but I'm happy with the stats on all except Lukaku and the situation with Davies, both of whom the price drop was not a sale price drop for me.

So, overall, I'm not worried about the drops last night, provided Alli avoids getting injured anyway, but I'm interested in what it means long term. Avoiding drops might be hard without multiple hits and bandwagon chasing.

I suppose there's an argument that chasing hard could actually be more effective as you'd have more money and cheaper players to buy. But chasing hard might mean 3 transfers a week.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Just checked back over the last couple or three years and typically I'd have a TV of close to £104m by this time, which would be about par for the course. Admittedly I haven't chased value quite so hard this year but my current TV after last night (when I had a three risers and four fallers) is 101.5m so about 2m down. Looking at the top ten in the STC league, the average TV is a shade over 102m (range: 101.5-102.6). Looking at the Shots supporters league, the top 10 have an average value of a shade under 101m (range: 100.1-101.7).

On the basis of this non-random and tiny sample, I suggest that TV will be much lower this year and that the difference between teams will be compressed somewhat. I also suspect that there will be many more sides with a TV of less than 100m.

I actually think that this could be a good thing in that a lower budget means a greater test of skill.

[Mr Clarinet]

I actually think that this could be a good thing in that a lower budget means a greater test of skill.

I shall have to think about that; I can't see straight off why it is obviously and unequivocally the case. Presumably players who previously managed to acquire higher budgets didn't do so by chance.
And if it's the lower range of budgets (because of the difficulty of increasing value) that is to the advantage of "skill", why not just set this range to zero by getting rid of price changes (if the "maximum skill" game is what is sought)?

[Finisher1]

So is Kane able to rise tonight? Or is his price protected due to a flag removal?

[Caf]

So is Kane able to rise tonight? Or is his price protected due to a flag removal?

I believe he went from red to orange to unflagged, so his price can change. FPLS has him rising tonight.

[Kuchi]

Kane looks to be going up AGAIN tonight. Back to back rises? Maybe I am being moronic but if pretty much the same people are now buying him who sold him how can he have dropped once but risen twice? Seriously this season I swear is about protecting TV not thinking about making any.

[konstro]

Yeah. Very stinky. Looks like they deliberately kept his price up when people were selling him last week.Yet they are not bothered when price rises. I was set to leave him out this weekend as I was hoping i could wait for game on Sunday to see what happens but if the trend continues he might be 12.9 by that time.

[Sutter Kane]

Kane looks to be going up AGAIN tonight. Back to back rises? Maybe I am being moronic but if pretty much the same people are now buying him who sold him how can he have dropped once but risen twice? Seriously this season I swear is about protecting TV not thinking about making any.

I agree, it's all a bit stinky. However a player with high ownership can quite easily fall just 0.1mn due to losing around 10% of ownership but then more easily rise twice due to a certain number of transfers. So the falls/rises are not based on the same thing.

Makes you think, to what end are the prices being manipulated...

[Kuchi]

Kane now on 197.2% to rise on FPLstats..... So basically a high owned player takes forever to drop even with mass sales but when people start getting him back he will rise quickly. Lets see if Lukaku does well if he goes up that quickly after taking a while to fall.

[No Way Jose]

Lukaku is priced to drop a second time in a few days with a relatively small 130k out vs 30k in. Sounds 1 drop worthy not too. Not too worried as the same people will probably be bringing him back in the next week or 2

[Stevieste]

Looks like David silva is going to drop again as well.
Surprised so many people are jumping off him, he is a guranteed starter in the best man city team of all time and is certain to score plenty of points for assists and bonus points, if he could shoot properly he be a 10+ million player

[slyger]

Ugh. Why did Daniels drop? I brought him a week early for their run and now just noticed a drop

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[Turd Ferguson]

Lukaku and Silva were both comfortably projected to drop on fpls. It definitely looks like there’s something going on that prevents highly owned players from dropping quickly.

[No Way Jose]

I think the projections for them were out a bit this week. The transfers out didn't seem high enough for both to double drop in a few days

Definitely been some fishy manipulation going on this season though

[Desperado]

What is the educated guess about Lukaku's price movement in the next couple of days? He's now on -150 % at fplstatistics but is this just another chance for for towers to protect value? Supposedly the transfers start slowly coming in after the inevitable blank of some of the big forwards since Lukaku's fixtures turn tempting after the internationals.

Though being just a two gw horse for me, I'd love hil to drops since then I could squeeze every penny out of my budget.