Ruth_NZ wrote: ↑10 Oct 2017, 04:59
I reckon that means wildcard GW36, BB37, TC34. It means living with a short team in GW35 but by playing TC in GW34 that becomes easier to manage. It would be unfortunate if the outstanding TC candidate was in GW37 though, as it was last season.
This looks like a good way to use the chips. The only thing looking a bit tricky is using TC in DGW34.
I know it is very early for this, but if we look at captain options in possible DGWs 34 and 37 it would look like this:
Capturea.JPG
So, DGW34 TC could be Kane although the second game against MCY doesn`t look that good. Lukaku looks very good, although Ibrahimovic could be back by then. The team with stand-out fixtures would be Liverpool with WAT BOU, so maybe Mane would be good pick there.
You are probably not worried about this Ruth, but DGW37 looks perfect for City TC. It doesn`t get easier than this and if the championship is still not won by this time, Guardiola could give rotation a pass. Not to mention if Aguero or Jesus are injured or get injured between GW34 and GW37, not sure if it is wise to be without TC chip. Kane and Lukaku look good, albeit both games away, even Morata could be an option under right circumstances. Arsenal have also good fixtures, but Sanchez will probably not be there anymore, although Lacazete could be an option by then.
What I wanted to say is, although there are only maximum of 4 games postponed for GW37, this GW looks like it has better TC options than GW34.
It is also interesting that almost all of the big teams have great fixtures from GW35 until the end of the season (bare Chelsea playing Liverpool GW37 and Arsenal United away GW36), so not sure it will have any merit to save FH for the last GW of the season (better said, the probability that GW38 is the best GW for using FH is very low).
So let`s just hope City doesn`t make it to the FA Cup SF.
Edit: Just added GW28 also if some teams have blank.
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No, I totally agree, that was kind of my point. The 'logical' sequence can force you into using the TC (for example) in the wrong week. That's why I am generally in favour of using at least one major chip (BB or FH) earlier in the season.
That GW37 City double could be crazy! 34 looks good too but would favor 37. If you could get the right City triple for my .... Good lord. Thanks Josh for that.
Ruth_NZ wrote: ↑20 Oct 2017, 10:54
No, I totally agree, that was kind of my point. The 'logical' sequence can force you into using the TC (for example) in the wrong week. That's why I am generally in favour of using at least one major chip (BB or FH) earlier in the season.
Yes, think you are right. If something unexpected doesn`t happen, it looks like there is one chip too much for optimal use in those GWs. This is the first year I play with these chips, but BB doesn`t look that powerful to me? It could force you to change your structure and leave more money on the bench after you WC (or without WC a lot of sideways moves) as you would or I fail to see the real benefit?
If one could somehow manage to navigate blanks in GW28 and GW31, chips could be used like this: 34 FH, 36 WC, 37 TC . This would mean having the same team in GW33 and GW35 but looking at the fixture list almost all teams have same difficulty fixtures in those two GWs. BB would be then used in some other GW before GW28 which can be planned earlier (also on WC if still intact) and would be another advantage of using 4-4-2 with strong bench.
The obvious issue here is that one should not have players from teams that play GW33, but are having blank GW35. It should be also said that GW33 City is playing against United at home, so if one of them, ideally both, are having blank GW35 they could be dropped for those two GWs, taken in with FH for DGW34 and then drafted in again with GW36 WC.
Of course, combination of blanks and DGWs will play decisive role in all of this, especially in navigating two blank weeks, so for now it is all theory.
Chelsea v Bournemouth
Arsenal v West Ham
Leicester v City
Bristol C v United
One would imagine that Chelsea, Arsenal, City and United will be favourites to reach the SFs (unless the Mitre ball suits Puel better than Guardiola ) so it may be worth taking an early look at the GW28 implications.
If Arsenal or City make the final then GW28 Arsenal v City would be postponed.
If Chelsea or United make the final then GW28 United v Chelsea would be postponed.
There is quite a feasible chance that only one fixture will be lost in GW28 as it appears. The postponed fixture(s) could be played later in the same GW but that would be quite unusual. Might be more likely if both affected teams make the EFL final.
The holiday broadcast schedule should be finalised this week as well, which will add to the picture.
14:15 Spurs v West Ham (Sky Sports)
16:30 West Brom v Arsenal (Sky Sports)
Monday 1 January
12:30 Brighton v AFC Bournemouth (Sky Sports)
17:30 Everton v Man Utd (Sky Sports)
Tuesday 2 January
19:45 Southampton v Crystal Palace*
19:45 Swansea City v Spurs (Sky Sports)
19:45 West Ham v West Brom*
20:00 Man City v Watford*
*Further to matches involving Crystal Palace, Man City, West Brom and West Ham moving to 31 December
The following teams have 4 games in 10 days: BOU, BRI, BUR, EVE, HUD, LEI, LIV, MUN, NEW, STO
The rest have 4 in 11 apart from Chelsea who have 4 in 12 and Arsenal who have 4 in 13.
Chelsea and Arsenal also avoid the 2 games in 3 days over the New Years weekend that most teams face (either Sat & Mon or Sun & Tues). The other teams with an extra day here are Southampton, Swansea and Watford.
So Arsenal and Chelsea the big winners. Chelsea in particular look a decent pick given that they have a pretty good set of fixtures over this period.
Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑04 Nov 2017, 08:43
...
20:00 Man City v Watford*
*Further to matches involving Crystal Palace, Man City, West Brom and West Ham moving to 31 December
...
Do I understand correctly that City will play Palace away on 31st December and then Watford home on 1st January?
Edit: Scratch that. Watford game will be on 2nd January.
Nice one, AR. Have been waiting for these broadcast arrangements but you beat me to the punch. I'll see if I can add anything next week. 4 in 10 days is tight, even 4 in 12 is tight to be honest. So maybe a look at fixtures may give an idea where the particular rotation pressures may occur.
Building on AR's post, this concerns the fixture map from GW19-GW22.
As a reminder, from GW12 to GW22 there are 11 PL games to play in 45 days. Teams with European competition will be playing 13 games in 45 days and if they reach the QFs of the League Cup that will be 15 in 45 days. That's an unusually compressed schedule. The holiday period is GW19-22 with 4 games to be played between 22/12 and 3/1 and each team having 2 home and 2 away games. This schedule is tighter than last season, when there were only 3 games in that period. This is how it looks:
Of these teams, the worst compression is for Newcastle, who must play 3 games in 5 days. Southampton had exactly that last season and made a huge rotation in the middle fixture. The rest must play 3 games in 6 days but all of them finish off with 2 games in 3 days.
Apart from the away game at Stamford Bridge, Brighton have very nice fixtures and the benefit of playing at Newcastle (GW21) with an extra day of rest than the home team will have.
You perhaps wouldn't expect too much rotation at most of these 9 clubs. Wouldn't be surprising to see Leicester rest a few for the game at Anfield (GW21); Puel certainly did that last season in a similar situation. Stoke might be tempted to do something similar for the GW21 away game at Chelsea. You'd also probably expect some rotation at United, especially between GW21&22.
4 games in 11 days [9 teams]
Liverpool - Friday 22nd, Tuesday 26th, Saturday 30th, Monday 1st(ars SWA LEI bur) Soton - Saturday 23rd, Tuesday 26th, Saturday 30th, Tuesday 2nd(HUD tot mun CPL) Palace - Saturday 23rd, Thursday 28th, Sunday 31st, Tuesday 2nd(swa ARS MCY sot) Swansea - Saturday 23rd, Tuesday 26th, Saturday 30th, Tuesday 2nd(CPL liv wat TOT) Spurs - Saturday 23rd, Tuesday 26th, Sunday 31st, Tuesday 2nd(bur SOT WHU swa) W Ham - Saturday 23rd, Tuesday 26th, Sunday 31st, Tuesday 2nd(NEW bou tot WBA) WBA - Saturday 23rd, Tuesday 26th, Sunday 31st, Tuesday 2nd(stk EVE ARS whu) Man. City - Saturday 23rd, Weds 27th, Sunday 31st, Tuesday 2nd(BOU new cpl WAT) Watford - Saturday 23rd, Tuesday 26th, Saturday 30th, Tuesday 2nd(bha LEI SWA mcy)
It's a real mixed bag here. Palace have the dreaded 3 games in 5 days; Liverpool and City have 3 in 6. Liverpool, Palace, Spurs, West Ham, WBA and City finish off with 2 games in 3 days. The other three - Watford, Southampton and Swansea - have something that resembles a normal schedule where there are always at least 2 clear days between games and they also have the benefit of playing GW22 with an extra day of rest than their opponents.
Of the more favoured teams, Watford look to have the kindest fixtures. Palace have it really tough. You'd certainly expect some rotation at Liverpool, Spurs and City, especially around GW21&22.
Arsenal couldn't ask for better in terms of rest between games but they do begin and end with tricky home fixtures.
Summary
In terms of teams with less expensive assets, Watford, Brighton and Huddersfield look like useful teams to consider when building a squad for this period. All of them have a decent run of fixtures beforehand as well, Watford from GW16, Brighton from GW18 and Huddersfield from GW15.
In terms of the big 6, there would be reason to expect rotation at United, Liverpool, City and Spurs, based purely on fixtures. Chelsea assets look like they could be tremendously useful; their schedule won't necessarily require rotation (though that's not to say there will be none), the fixtures are kind and there is a natural jump-on point as early as GW14. Arsenal representation could also be beneficial; they have more rest than any other team and you could conceivably add Arsenal players as early as GW13.
Obviously these comments are based on fixtures only, not on form. It's impossible to say how that will look 7 weeks from now.
15 man squad might not be enough for that period. Now to try to predict who is rested when ..... Morata to miss one of the home games? Fantastic as always Ruth/AR lots of planning needed but lots of chance for solid green arrows.
Also deadlines for those weeks London times:
GW19 Fri 22 Dec 18:45
GW20 Tue 26 Dec 11:30
GW21 Sat 30 Dec 14:00
GW22 Mon 01 Jan 11:30
GW23 Sat 13 Jan 14:00
that's outstanding, will be hard for anyone to beat that.
looking at other GW's when the fixtures "line up" with favourable matches for the big teams then GW17 has:
Huddersfield v CHELSEA
Swansea v CITY
LIVERPOOL v West Brom
UNITED v Bournemouth
SPURS v Brighton
West Ham v ARSENAL
that looks awesome for the big six, shame it's a midweek GW where there will likely be rotation
GW20 also looks really good but again right in the middle of the Christmas games.
Only New Year GW that looks super strong for all the top six is GW35!
ARSENAL v West Ham
Bournemouth v UNITED
Brighton v SPURS
CHELSEA v Huddersfield
CITY v Swansea
West Brom v LIVERPOOL
so late in the season, who knows what will be happening.
Why would you want to use your Free Hit in a week when all of the big six teams have decent games? You won't be able to cover them all. Surely it is better used when the particular players you own from the big six have a poor game in one week, but there are other players from different big six teams that have a good game that week, who you then switch to right?
that's outstanding, will be hard for anyone to beat that.
looking at other GW's when the fixtures "line up" with favourable matches for the big teams then GW17 has:
Huddersfield v CHELSEA
Swansea v CITY
LIVERPOOL v West Brom
UNITED v Bournemouth
SPURS v Brighton
West Ham v ARSENAL
that looks awesome for the big six, shame it's a midweek GW where there will likely be rotation
GW20 also looks really good but again right in the middle of the Christmas games.
Only New Year GW that looks super strong for all the top six is GW35!
ARSENAL v West Ham
Bournemouth v UNITED
Brighton v SPURS
CHELSEA v Huddersfield
CITY v Swansea
West Brom v LIVERPOOL
so late in the season, who knows what will be happening.
Why would you want to use your Free Hit in a week when all of the big six teams have decent games? You won't be able to cover them all. Surely it is better used when the particular players you own from the big six have a poor game in one week, but there are other players from different big six teams that have a good game that week, who you then switch to right?
Risky but it does show you can get a rocket of a boost but on the flipside look what happened in GW10? Feel it is smarter to use it when either the fixtures are trashed due to the FA Cup or the weaker DGW. This guy got like 60 points out of it but thats an exception. Just out of interest how many points do people think it is worth? I would rate it around 20.
that's outstanding, will be hard for anyone to beat that.
looking at other GW's when the fixtures "line up" with favourable matches for the big teams then GW17 has:
Huddersfield v CHELSEA
Swansea v CITY
LIVERPOOL v West Brom
UNITED v Bournemouth
SPURS v Brighton
West Ham v ARSENAL
that looks awesome for the big six, shame it's a midweek GW where there will likely be rotation
GW20 also looks really good but again right in the middle of the Christmas games.
Only New Year GW that looks super strong for all the top six is GW35!
ARSENAL v West Ham
Bournemouth v UNITED
Brighton v SPURS
CHELSEA v Huddersfield
CITY v Swansea
West Brom v LIVERPOOL
so late in the season, who knows what will be happening.
Why would you want to use your Free Hit in a week when all of the big six teams have decent games? You won't be able to cover them all. Surely it is better used when the particular players you own from the big six have a poor game in one week, but there are other players from different big six teams that have a good game that week, who you then switch to right?
Because I'd want 2 players from 5 of the teams, and then one from the other, so all 11 players hopefully in the points. And I may not have the players I want from a big six team, perhaps I've got Salah but Mane is on fire, or I've got Pogba but Lingard is playing really well, etc.
Not saying I will do it, but if you can get 11 big six players all with a favourable fixture there has got to be a decent chance of a 100+ GW.
Having a cast forward until the first scheduled BGW (GW28), an immediate stand-out is West Ham's super run of fixtures from GW18-27 including a DGW in GW22 but with a blank in GW21: stk NEW boublankWBA/tot hud BOU CRY bha WAT.
The immediate interest for me is the West Ham GK, whoever that turns out to be. Both Adrian and Hart are cheap (4.3m/4.4m) and it wouldn't cost me much to upgrade Elliot once it's clear who Moyes' starting GK is. With Pope/Elliot as my current pair and Heaton's return somewhere on the horizon, having a playing 2nd GK would be useful and the rotation would work quite well until then also. For the specific GK pair I have, GW19 would be optimum for Elliot Hart/Adrian and it should be clear by then which of them is preferred.
It's a move I'd happily take a hit to do if need be; the conventional wisdom is "never take a hit for a GK" but I think the changes in the way GKs are rewarded in FPL over the last couple of seasons have made that old saw well and truly obsolete. Last season's top teams scored more points per game from their GKs than they averaged from their defenders and the GK has unobtrusively become a more important position in a FPL squad. And in this case the extra game in GW22 would go a good way to repaying a hit anyway.
For others with different GK pairs it might be that a West Ham defender would suit better, though the rotation risk in GW22 has to be recognised because the games are only 2 days apart. Lloris would also do a similar job to Hart/Adrian but personally it would take a lot for me to spend £5.5m on a GK at this stage of the season.
The West Ham attackers are less clear-cut; some rotation risk exists for the DGW (although that may not be such a big issue) and Moyes' teams generally haven't been prolific goalscorers. I'd have to be dragged backwards through a hedge to go near Andy Carroll at the best of times but Michail Antonio is one of my favourite FPL players and he's right where I like him on price at £7.4m. Moyes obviously sees him as a key attacker and played him OOP #9 in his first start after injury (although Chicharito's unavailability doubtless influenced that). Once Antonio gets going he can be a bit of a machine and he's not the kind of player you'd expect Moyes to rotate (I wouldn't anyway). He's another that is on my list of likely candidates, though others will doubtless prefer Lanzini.
Much of the talk about DGW22 has been about what to do with Spurs but I think West Ham are at least equally interesting and I'll be watching what Moyes starts to establish with them over the next 2-3 games with some interest.
With Pope/Elliot I like getting in a West Ham keeper fairly soon. As pointed out which one is preferred we still need to wait and see. West Ham other players? Antonio has done nicely for me in the past but I wouldn't really want anyone from the team right now. More a case of wait and see. Spurs? Alli if he keeps dropping could prove a tidy differential but I can't really see me doing that. If Toby is back perhaps Alonso to him .... I stress perhaps.
Desperado wrote:
I've been glancing at Cresswell. His probable price drop to 4.9M makes him an intriguing option in that bracket.
Yeah, another good one.
West Ham and Everton have the quality of squad to be top-half teams I think, but have under-performed. Under new managers they could both provide some really useful value in the 2nd half of the season.
I've been looking at Cresswell as a Daniels replacement even before the DGW, so that move becomes even more likely now.
DM has always loved a ball into the box and placed a big emphasis on set pieces, so he's a good option, a price drop would be excellent, hopefully Chelsea & Arsenal can beat them well in the next two and his price can plunge for GW18!
Ruth_NZ wrote: ↑03 Dec 2017, 23:47
Yes, but 155k 4k in one week with the Free Hit shows its potential. To use it to get a couple of scrubby players in a BGW seems so pedestrian really.
What do you think about a free hit tonight Ruth? I'm seriously considering it. Have decent number of players from big teams but they all might not start because of rotation/injuries.
1) My DEF doesn't look good this week.
2) The current team looks good for GW 18 though.
3) I'll have better info on Ramsey, Mustafi and Jones, saving me 1 FT.
4) Will make the permanent transfers in GW 19 instead.
5) We know which Pool and City assets will be playing this GW.
Only problem is losing team value. And maybe, indicative of me in denial about my team's problems..
What do you think? I ask you because your views on free hit are very open-minded.
Yeah, I think you could. The biggest problem with the FH is that it burns a FT but a lot of the problems with that squad will melt away given time, you have 4 players there who probably won't be fit for the midweek games but may be available for the weekend.
The other side of the FH is who you bring in, of course. But the opportunity to add the likes of Valencia, Aguero/Lukaku, Sanchez, Kolasinac as well as Coutinho and Firmino means there is lots of potential upside. On balance I think it would be a good move.
PS. Pedro is also worth considering if you go ahead.
Ruth_NZ wrote:Holiday Schedules
This concerns the fixture map from GW19-GW22. Watford - Saturday 23rd, Tuesday 26th, Saturday 30th, Tuesday 2nd(bha LEI SWA mcy)
...Watford, Southampton and Swansea have something that resembles a normal schedule where there are always at least 2 clear days between games and they also have the benefit of playing GW22 with an extra day of rest than their opponents. Of those three, Watford look to have the kindest fixtures.
So, here's a little anomaly as we are now heading into the GW19-22 festive games. With Watford's most dangerous attacker - The Equaliser Troy Deeney* - suspended for at least 3 games (or is it 4 for a second straight red?), Andre Gray looks pretty nailed on to start the next few games. And Andre Gray has actually scored a Christmas hat-trick in each of the last 2 seasons. On 31/12/16 v Sunderland and 28/12/15 v Bristol City.
This season on 30/12/17 it's Watford v Swansea. Andre Gray for the Xmas triple, anyone?
*...obviously I am referring to physical danger rather than goal threat here.
) so it may be worth taking an early look at the GW28 implications.
4k in one week with the Free Hit shows its potential. To use it to get a couple of scrubby players in a BGW seems so pedestrian really. 
