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Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

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Sutter Kane
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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Sutter Kane »

I'd be far happier TC in GW37 trying to catch a golden boot contender or a champion's league chaser. BB seems fraught with danger that week and also means a gw33 WC has to carry through that BB bench to GW37/38 whereas I'd be wanting to shave money off it after a BB in gw34.

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Sutter Kane
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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Sutter Kane »

...with 2 entire transfers. :lol:

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Finisher1 »

I'm currently on WC34. That gives a luxury of a direct WC to the main DGW. No need to make compromises for GW33.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Stemania »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 11 Jan 2018, 00:23 Typically 4 or 5 PL games survive in QF week and I doubt it will be far from that this season. But really that's a red herring. The issue isn't how many, it's which ones. And that's where the odds contained in that spreadsheet were/are misleading. Less so now the 4th round draw has happened and it will be less so still when the 5th round has been drawn.
For QF weekend, the number of fixtures surviving in previous years (most recent first) have been

4, 5, 10*, 5, 6, 9*, 10*, 5...

with either the QFs themselves in midweek (so not clashing with PL), or fixtures just kept in the midweek of the same GW, in the asterisked years 2015, 2012 & 2011 (as per an older BC spreadsheet).

The average is bang on 5 for those five years of recorded data that had problematic clashes, and the only thing you could really say from the very small sample of previous years data is that we've always had 4,5 or 6 blanks in those cases, mostly exactly 5 - in 3 out of the 5 years it's been 5.

BC's current spreadsheet loosely projects (just under) 5 blanks in GW31 (so just over 5 survivors), which is just about bang on what has happened in previous years. As the rounds go on (and we get closer to knowing the precise blanks) what better way is there going to be than using odds to approximate probabilities for fixtures? How do we otherwise come up with the guesses for probabilities required to get a more precise projection to tell us if we're going nearer 6 or nearer 4 blanks (a significant difference)? A pull a percentage/feeling out of rectum by glancing at the fixtures plan? BC's method of projection by odds may not be perfect, but it's the best thing we have unless a viable systematic alternative for probability estimation (that is better than odds) appears, in which case we're all millionaires. :lol:

I don't see how BC's current projection itself could be seen as misleading as a loose estimate, even by anyone who doesn't believe in the current odds used. Atm it's basically "he still expects roughly the average number of blanks" - in fact the Arsenal shock has pushed the working number for this year ever so slightly in the fewer blanks direction (as opposed to last year's more than average blanks), which I'm sure everyone will agree makes sense as an observation. I don't think I've seen anyone ever claim or assume on FISO (when BC has done this stuff in the past) that the projection at this stage of the season is anything more than a very loose estimate, so it's unclear to me who it is that's being misled by the info.

What is perhaps misleading is the figure of 6 blanks from last season being repeatedly described as 'typical' when actually it's the only time in recorded data that we've had as few as 4 fixtures surviving - or worse...
Ruth_NZ wrote: 08 Oct 2017, 21:46 Based on previous history, it is GW31 when the biggest carnage may occur. Typically one would expect 3 to 5 games to survive that week.
...is the statement in the OP of this thread, which is plainly not right as an alternative estimate to BC's - the above data shows this - as few as 3 fixtures surviving appears to be a very unlikely scenario and has never happened before in recorded data. Certainly BC's projection looks less misleading to me than instead looking what happened in (presumably) the last one or two years and making up a 3-5 survivors guess from those numbers based on the seemingly false assumption that the 4 survivors from last year was typical, but maybe that's just me. :P :lol:

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Ruth_NZ »

You persist in mixing up 2 things, Stemania. Going in, previous history about how many fixtures typically get postponed in a FAC QF week is as good a guide as any to the type of situation we are likely to face. That's all that number was for. I'd never suggest anyone plan on that basis other than in terms of awareness that 'this is the kind of event that is likely to be'.

As we get nearer, what becomes critical is not so much how many games survive but which ones. It is in that regard that I think BC using bookies' odds before even the 3rd round is played is stretching things to the point of being misleading. And that's it as far as I am concerned.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Yes, for me the critical point is which games survive. Given that my ideal starting team going forward - will probably have at least 8 players from City, United, Chelsea and Liverpool, my main interest is in how many of those five teams will have blanks. That will largely depend on the 5th round draw and whether they get drawn against each other. I could probably cope with three of these having blanks but any more and I have major issues. Of course if all 5 go through (given that that none of them are due to play each other), we are then down to five matches maximum.

Personally, the best scenario for me is that only 2 or 3 matches go ahead in GW31 but I accept that this is unlikely based on recent history.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Stemania »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: 11 Jan 2018, 14:13 Yes, for me the critical point is which games survive.
For sure, and we must indeed wait for that. :)

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Jay P »

The more awkward the blanks and DGWs are the better imo. We’re all in the same boat, less prepared managers are going to struggle more.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Mav3rick »

That BC spreadsheet is bloody useful, hats off to the guy for improving it and sharing his work with everyone each year.

Having people on FISO who add to that work, bringing an extra analysis layer is the best part about a forum like ours.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by deanlowe »

My first year playing, where can I get the BC spreadsheet. Sounds like I need it?


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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Beerfuelledman »

deanlowe wrote: 12 Jan 2018, 19:48 My first year playing, where can I get the BC spreadsheet. Sounds like I need it?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =799946028

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Viduka »

Are spurs to play week 28?


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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Caf »

Viduka wrote: 13 Jan 2018, 09:33 Are spurs to play week 28?


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Yes, Palace-Spurs will go ahead.
The two games at risk, depending on the outcome of the League Cup semis, are Man Utd-Chelsea and Arsenal-Man City.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Bobby Chopps »

Mav3rick wrote: 06 Jan 2018, 22:11 May I respectfully remind all posters of FISO's terms and conditions, specifically the section regarding personal disputes with other members or groups.

Some posts which I believe to be in violation of the clause above have been removed from the thread. Please PM me if you have questions about this action.

Remember this is a thread about general chip/fixture planning, not about any one poster's use of a chip. Any user requiring an ongoing, personal discussion about their own FPL team/chips should do so either via PM or by posting an RMT in the appropriate forum.
No you may not :D

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by baganboy »

^ Mav is a FISO moderator :D
So perhaps he should be a little less kind and polite, and just use terms like 'Please refrain from...:

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Sutter Kane
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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Sutter Kane »

baganboy wrote: ^ Mav is a FISO moderator :D
So perhaps he should be a little less kind and polite, and just use terms like 'Please refrain from...:

Step 1: Polite request.
Step 2: "Refrain from"
Step 3: Send the heavies round.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by MoSe »

Bobby Chopps wrote: 14 Jan 2018, 23:26
Mav3rick wrote: 06 Jan 2018, 22:11 May I respectfully remind all posters
No you may not :D
very funny

like joking "it's not like I have a bomb in the backpack" at the airport security
lol

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by OIEIAO »

paddles wrote: 09 Jan 2018, 12:14 For those not using FH GW28 how will impending GW28 impact your transfer plans?

For example, is holding Alli a consideration? (vs. previous plan to get rid before GW25 bad fixtures)

Should Lingard be avoided due to likely blank if I would otherwise get him in now?
I'm not too worried. I have 1 Chelsea / 2 Man U / 1 City and am still considering bringing Silva and /or Stones in this week or next. Admittedly I did change my morata to Aguero plan, to Morata to Firmino instead.

Even if Chelsea go through and I end up with 6 from blanking teams I am probably content to use 2 FTs that week, bench 3 and play with ten men. That seems an OK way to handle the DGW (even though I do appear to be reserving most of the transfers between now and then). I'm not sure I want to forego what I think are the best options for GW 24 to 27 just because of one blank.

I'm probably more likely to just bring in Silva and if Arsenal go through I will have just 4 blankers which should be easily managed.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Stemania »

Nothing huge for GW31 from the replays then.

Bournemouth vs WBA

now looking very likely to be on, unless the Baggies can shock Liverpool in the next round.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by bcfc1903 »

Stemania wrote: 17 Jan 2018, 22:59 Nothing huge for GW31 from the replays then.

Bournemouth vs WBA

now looking very likely to be on, unless the Baggies can shock Liverpool in the next round.
Very likely I'll use free hit this weekend unless we have a number of PL games.

I can imaginemy excitement now having a combination of Bournemouth and WBA players!!!!

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Finisher1 »

bcfc1903 wrote: 18 Jan 2018, 01:16
Stemania wrote: 17 Jan 2018, 22:59 Nothing huge for GW31 from the replays then.

Bournemouth vs WBA

now looking very likely to be on, unless the Baggies can shock Liverpool in the next round.
Very likely I'll use free hit this weekend unless we have a number of PL games.

I can imaginemy excitement now having a combination of Bournemouth and WBA players!!!!
But there is BGW35 for FA Cup semi-finalists, and all top six teams have a very delicious fixture that gameweek. So, if (a big "if" of course) all semi-finalists are top six teams then there will be four blanks in BGW35 - so these four big teams would probably have DGW34, BGW35, DGW37. In which case FH35 looks very tasty.

And yes, I know Arsenal are out of Cup already, but their GW35 opponent is still in the Cup, so Arsenal are still in the BGW35 pool as well :)

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Finisher1 wrote: But there is BGW35 for FA Cup semi-finalists, and all top six teams have a very delicious fixture that gameweek. So, if (a big "if" of course) all semi-finalists are top six teams then there will be four blanks in BGW35 - so these four big teams would probably have DGW34, BGW35, DGW37. In which case FH35 looks very tasty.

I think my aim now is to save FH for GW38. :wink: In other words I'll be happy to still have it then but can use it beforehand if need be, of which GW35 seems the most likely for the reasons you suggest. BB and TC will be GW34/37 in either order depending on the best TC opportunity. And wildcard will be some time before, could be any time from GW28 depending on how things unfold.

GW31 really barely concerns me at the moment. I won't even think much about it till the 5th round has been drawn.

I still kind of wish it had been possible to play BB in GW1. I really think that's the best use of it, just the fixtures didn't align well for that this season.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Finisher1 »

Yes, last season I took -16 to field a full team for the main BGW. It worked out quite well. I'm probably going to do the same this season for BGW31, I'm not afraid of taking something like -16 for that gameweek, because I think a hit is often worth it if you get an additional fixture and I think FH35 is likely worth more than 16 points.

Of course it's then a bit of compromise team for GW32-33 (as I'm planning for WC34), but I think there are enough options so that I don't have to make too much compromises.

Anyway, all of this is just my initial planning, as you say obviously a lot depends on what happens in FA Cup.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW28 Arsenal v City remains on - re-scheduled to Thursday 1st March.

Could still be moved if City have a FA Cup 5th round replay. Otherwise no GW28 blank for those 2 teams.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Joccki_10 »

Oh wow, so nothing to worry about then if Arsenal get it done tonight?

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Zimmerman »

And even if they don’t, you assume they will also reschedule the Man U v Chelsea game for the same midweek?

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Joccki_10 wrote: Oh wow, so nothing to worry about then if Arsenal get it done tonight?
Zimmerman wrote:And even if they don’t, you assume they will also reschedule the Man U v Chelsea game for the same midweek?

Looks that way. Potential FA Cup replays will mean we don't finally know until 17th/18th February (mid GW27) though.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Finisher1 »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 24 Jan 2018, 11:09 GW28 Arsenal v City remains on - re-scheduled to Thursday 1st March.

Could still be moved if City have a FA Cup 5th round replay. Otherwise no GW28 blank for those 2 teams.
That's big news. Did any of our fixture experts predict this? Or did we all just miss this option?

Arsenal is out of FA Cup so definitely no replay for them. City's replay still possible, just how likely it is depends largely on their fifth round draw.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Ruth_NZ »

No, it was mentioned as a possibility. But I don't know who the fixture experts are supposed to be. :lol:

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Finisher1 »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 24 Jan 2018, 11:59 No, it was mentioned as a possibility. But I don't know who the fixture experts are supposed to be. :lol:
I remember it was mentioned at some point, but definitely not considered as a real option, because everyone was just very big about "we must plan for a definite BGW28" euphoria.

Those who knew it should have spoken up! :lol: Maybe if they would have made a fuss about it like I do when I know something, then we all would have been better informed ;)

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