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Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

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Sutter Kane
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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Sutter Kane »

That does indeed seem to be evidence towards building a case for FH35. It all came down to which of the same teams had likely dgws in GW34 and gw37.

In those circumstances I'm where I was a week ago - i.e. not getting rid of players with a nice GW28 and not drafting any in with a blank. That would achieve xi that week but with the likes of Quaner, Carroll, Masuaku/Arnautovic/Adrian (all away at Liverpool) needing to step up. Not ideal.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Stemania »

The interesting other thing is that if the English teams progress in the cups/CL, they'll have to be a third DGW, probably more (as each team plays CL in slightly different weeks).

City in particular, if they get to the CL Semis and get through rounds 4 and 5 in FA, then they'd either have to have an extra DGW in GW27 or GW30, or have a game penciled into one of the FA Cup replay dates (GW26/28 as per MoSe's spreadsheet), which would always be subject to a move.

Edit: If Sanchez signs for City then immediately gets given a DGW27/30, with one of the fixtures against Arsenal, then all FPL hell might break loose. :lol:

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Finisher1 »

Stemania wrote: 08 Jan 2018, 13:32
  • City play HUD in GW37 (and their two to be rearranged would be BHA, SWA) - OK, so they very likely have ars to rearrange from the CC final too, but this could go earlier, maybe even GW26/28 in place of cup replays. edit: In fact; GW27/30 is the only other place it could go assuming they go far in the CL and is probably the most likely
Surely there is a decent chance City field U18 Girls in DGW37, given that they have already won the league and DGW37 is just after UCL semi-finals.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Stemania »

A very decent chance I'd say. In fact, from memory I believe that's what Pep has done in the past with Messi/Lewendowski etc, rested them in the league around the CL semis when the title is won/all but won.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Joshhua »

Unless they haven`t lost a match until then and want to finish the season as the new Invincibles. :D

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Triggy »

Joshhua wrote: 08 Jan 2018, 18:15 Unless they haven`t lost a match until then and want to finish the season as the new Invincibles. :D
Pep has stated that he doesn't expect this to be the case and anyway, it isn't something he is aiming for. Winning the trophies is the aim and things like the run of consecutive wins wasn't a target at all.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by paddles »

For those not using FH GW28 how will impending GW28 impact your transfer plans?

For example, is holding Alli a consideration? (vs. previous plan to get rid before GW25 bad fixtures)

Should Lingard be avoided due to likely blank if I would otherwise get him in now?

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Stemania »

paddles wrote: 09 Jan 2018, 12:14 For those not using FH GW28 how will impending GW28 impact your transfer plans?

For example, is holding Alli a consideration? (vs. previous plan to get rid before GW25 bad fixtures)

Should Lingard be avoided due to likely blank if I would otherwise get him in now?
That's very much in line with my plan, but strictly speaking I'd say my current reasons for making those decisions are more than just GW28 per se. Aguero is my real transfer priority atm, and certainly takes precedence over avoiding some vaguely dodgy fixtures for my Spurs mids in a couple of weeks' time. Independent of GW28 it looks like I've provisionally decided to sell Kane for Kun from GW24-27 (because getting him in alongside Kane looks too transfer intensive) and that's the driver for the Spurs mid/Lingard choices because it means me being left with both Alli and Eriksen in a midfield of all 8.4m+ and one free transfer when Spurs are about to enter their tougher spell. Only having 2-3 transfers in total free before GW28 (because I also need to deal with DCL imminently plus buy Kane back in GW28), it then doesn't seem to make a huge amount of sense to me to sell one/both and buy Lingard as a result - the GW28 Spurs Mid advantages of doing so are a very happy reward for getting through the three tougher games.

I don't think I'd generally advocate avoiding the player(s) I thought were the best picks now just because they might miss a game in GW28, but I'd certainly try to take it into account if possible - obviously the closer we get to GW28 the more important a factor it is. :)

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Zimmerman »

So am I right in thinking that at the moment, Week 31 is looking decimated.

Obviously a huge amount of assumption.... but based on the draw and assuming form etc (which I know is dangerous).

Only one game survives, and at an outside push there might be three fixtures?

Stoke v Everton - definitely on
Bournemouth v West Brom - possibly on
Huddersfield v Palace - possibly (but probably not)

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Finisher1 »

That's a false assumption, there are still two FA Cup rounds to go until GW31, not just one like you are thinking!

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Zimmerman »

Yep, ignore me... I’ve got ahead of myself and skipped over Round 5 (17th Feb).

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Stemania »

BC's projection is still around 5 blanks in GW31, but it took a small hit on the back of the Arsenal shock.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Valeron »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 06 Jan 2018, 14:44
Stemania wrote: Did you just say what's the point of guessing then state a different guess that you're running with as a guide? :lol:

No. What has happened in previous seasons isn't a guess. :roll:

There is a difference between what is factual, what is opinion and what is guesswork. I know you like to treat bookmakers' odds as if they represent facts but they don't, they represent a mechanism for the bookmakers to make money. That's the flaw in the spreadsheet; the % chances of each team reaching the QF are nonsensical because the 4th and 5th round draws can match any team with any team.

You asked how someone could provide a rough guide without using bookmakers' odds. At this stage the precedent of previous seasons does that better than some pseudo-factual spreadsheet, Stemania.
The bookmakers odds are a mechanism for making money indeed, and surely that's because they are accurate? They would be out of business otherwise. They are not nonsensical, and there's a clear contradiction within your one paragraph there.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Joshhua »

Triggy wrote: 09 Jan 2018, 11:07
Joshhua wrote: 08 Jan 2018, 18:15 Unless they haven`t lost a match until then and want to finish the season as the new Invincibles. :D
Pep has stated that he doesn't expect this to be the case and anyway, it isn't something he is aiming for. Winning the trophies is the aim and things like the run of consecutive wins wasn't a target at all.
Maybe, but if he was aiming for it, this is just the thing that would be expected from him to say. :lol:
It doesn't matter really...

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Valeron wrote:The bookmakers odds are a mechanism for making money indeed, and surely that's because they are accurate? They would be out of business otherwise.

You are making the assumption that the punters are accurate. But they aren't. The bookmakers' odds are designed to make money out of their actual punters and for that purpose alone.

You might say that in a closed market the weight of professional money will push the odds towards true but a niche market such as who reaches the QFs with 2 random events (4th and 5th round draws) to intervene is nothing a pro will invest in unless the odds are way out of kilter.

I agree with Stemania that the probabilities expressed in the spreadsheet will become more reliable as we get nearer to the time. Best to leave it at that.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Tacalabala »

I know someone who works in a bookies - bookmakers prices absolutely do not represent the actual probably of anything, they are a product in much the same way as a packet of crisps or a pack of cigarettes.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Sutter Kane »

Do the book makers not have to produce odds before people start betting? I assume they must do, and if they do, how much do they generally change over time? My view is that bookies are so good at what they do, they can very often get it close to spot on before any betting sways the market slightly. Have I got this procedure all wrong?

I have to say that when I first see odds appear regarding a particular sports event, I rarely if ever disagree with their initial estimation...

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Sutter Kane »

I do get that fact that it is obvious that the bookies are there to make money and nothing else matters to them, including accurate probabilities.

So do the odds get more accurate or less accurate over time, as more money is bet? Or is it different for every event?

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Cars and Mané »

Regarding GW28, is it not possible to move the postponed games to the midweek a few days later (say the 28th)? Presuming none of the affected teams have FA Cup replays.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Stemania »

Cars and Mané wrote: 10 Jan 2018, 15:31 Regarding GW28, is it not possible to move the postponed games to the midweek a few days later (say the 28th)? Presuming none of the affected teams have FA Cup replays.
Yes, they could indeed. However, that would require a very late notice arrangement and the possibility of them being postponed again should one of the teams require a cup replay (they could similarly be moved forward to GW26). Most importantly, it would require the FA to think ahead! Image In fact, I've just looked a bit deeper into MoSe spreadsheet and

if
a) Man City beat Bristol or Arsenal beat Chelsea
b) Arsenal and City reach the SF of their European competitions
c) Arsenal and City reach the SF of the FA Cup
then
the ONLY available place for the third rearranged game for both all season would be GW26 or GW28 midweeks.

Sure, all those things happening is probably not odds on, but it's something the FA should really have in mind even if in the past they've seemingly been ambivalent/unaware of the impending possibility of fixture doom. There are some slightly weaker related scenarios in which GW26/28 would on paper be the only slots available, but for some of them the FA would have outs by rearranging the Arsenal City game in GW34/37 (and so not keep the rearrangements chronological) and bringing one of the other missing games earlier. City, for example, could then play their third game in another gameweek before GW31.

With Arsenal likely to progress in the Europa, that actually puts out GW27, 30, 31 as possibilities for Arsenal vs City. Even though City could easily at any time have one of their other postponed games (GW31) moved up to GW30 (or very unlikely GW27) to alleviate their own pressure, Arsenal would be screwed if they keep progressing and GW26/28 are not used (due to there being an extra round of Europa compared to CL).

Edit: Oops, United and Arsenal wrong way round in last sentence above and first sentence below - thanks NWJ.

Man United being out of the FA Cup helps them with slot availability, and with Chelsea playing Barca in the CL (and first having to dispatch Arsenal in the League Cup to be in minor fixture peril) I'd guess those teams will end up OK, with a slight possibility of a GW35/36 game should the FA be inactive. So probably GW28 (or GW26) won't be required for them.

The tldr is that, yes, there looks to be a genuine possibility we'll be having either a DGW somewhere between GW27-30, or a small chance that the GW28 blanks may end up not happening at all even if the initial fixtures are cancelled!

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Cars and Mané »

Cheers for that Stem. Based on their track record I guess we should assume the FA will not take the opportunity to make their own and everyone else's lives easier!

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Stemania »

More than anything, it might be quite embarrassing for them to rearrange a big fixture like Arsenal vs City (with many broadcasters overseas wanting to broadcast it, even if Sky/BT are not able to) and allow clubs to sell tickets, only for it to be cancelled for a second time 10 days before the game. The season should really be either a week longer or there should be one IB fewer, because this will be an issue every year and UEFA will always kick up a stink if they eventually end up in CL midweeks.

I suspect the makeweight will eventually be that FA cup replays will be scrapped altogether, as they're not the big money games. The QF replays were done away with a couple of years ago basically due to clashing with the CL, and if the English clubs continue to be successful in Europe it'll keep happening that a fixture needs to clash. 5th round replays next on the chopping block?

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by dino1980 »

Sutter Kane wrote: 10 Jan 2018, 14:57 I do get that fact that it is obvious that the bookies are there to make money and nothing else matters to them, including accurate probabilities.

So do the odds get more accurate or less accurate over time, as more money is bet? Or is it different for every event?
When it comes to football odds - or any market for that matter - the Betfair Exchange price is as close to 'true odds' that you'll find because the prices are set by the punters themselves.

There's a betting phrase 'if you can beat Betfair you've got a good bet' meaning that if at [Insert GenericBookie Name] the price on a horse, a football match etc is bigger than the betfair exchange price then you should bet it.

Bookies need to make money, so if they get a lot of money bet on a particular outcome then the odds will shorten. England 's odds to win a major football tournament are almost always shorter at UK bookmakers than European/international facing bookies due to the weight of patriotic money.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by No Way Jose »

Stemania wrote: 10 Jan 2018, 16:12
Cars and Mané wrote: 10 Jan 2018, 15:31 Regarding GW28, is it not possible to move the postponed games to the midweek a few days later (say the 28th)? Presuming none of the affected teams have FA Cup replays.
Yes, they could indeed. However, that would require a very late notice arrangement and the possibility of them being postponed again should one of the teams require a cup replay (they could similarly be moved forward to GW26). Most importantly, it would require the FA to think ahead! :lol: In fact, I've just looked a bit deeper into MoSe spreadsheet and

if
a) Man City beat Bristol or Arsenal beat Chelsea
b) Arsenal and City reach the SF of their European competitions
c) Arsenal and City reach the SF of the FA Cup
then
the ONLY available place for the third rearranged game for both all season would be GW26 or GW28 midweeks.

Sure, all those things happening is probably not odds on, but it's something the FA should really have in mind even if in the past they've seemingly been ambivalent/unaware of the impending possibility of fixture doom. There are some slightly weaker related scenarios in which GW26/28 would on paper be the only slots available, but for some of them the FA would have outs by rearranging the Arsenal City game in GW34/37 (and so not keep the rearrangements chronological) and bringing one of the other missing games earlier. City, for example, could then play their third game in another gameweek before GW31.

With Arsenal likely to progress in the Europa, that actually puts out GW27, 30, 31 as possibilities for Arsenal vs City. Even though City could easily at any time have one of their other postponed games (GW31) moved up to GW30 (or very unlikely GW27) to alleviate their own pressure, Arsenal would be screwed if they keep progressing and GW26/28 are not used (due to there being an extra round of Europa compared to CL).

Man United being out of the FA Cup helps them with slot availability, and with Chelsea playing Barca in the CL (and first having to dispatch Arsenal in the League Cup to be in minor fixture peril) I'd guess those teams will end up OK, with a slight possibility of a GW35/36 game should the FA be inactive. So probably GW28 (or GW26) won't be required for them.

The tldr is that, yes, there looks to be a genuine possibility we'll be having either a DGW somewhere between GW27-30, or a small chance that the GW28 blanks may end up not happening at all even if the initial fixtures are cancelled!
Sorry to nitpick but united are still in the fa cup and arsenal are already knocked out

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by 19Yorke »

On the bookies odds, I remember Ruth_NZ had a quite detailed thread about the topic a couple of years back. Remember it as it was very interesting and I learned a lot about something I didn't have a clue about.

Edit: Here it is: viewtopic.php?f=18&t=119079&p=2792613&h ... s#p2792613

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Stemania »

It's pretty moot as to whether odds represent very precise probabilities or not for the purposes of making blanks projections, which is the context in the thread. The important thing is they provide a systematic way of approximately probabilities to a reasonably good extent across all fixtures. The key thing in BC's spreadsheet is putting together the guesses for individual probabilities to get one combined number. That bit is just maths and is (assuming no mistakes) water tight.

Using odds, at worst, just gives a reasonably good idea, they don't need to be spot on. There is no error associated to getting from the probabilities to the projection, it's just a simple calculation (the formula are visible), so even in the worst case it would be easy enough for anyone to tweak any numbers they for any reason didn't believe.

There's no other way to come up with more and more accurate projections (as this season's new info comes in) without having guesses at match probabilities in place. Odds are by far the best way we have of systematically providing those probabilities (in fact, probably the only way), so as far as I see it, they are pretty invaluable.

Perhaps best to keep the conv on precisely how accurate odds are to another thread though (if it's desired) and just DGW/fixture stuff here.
No Way Jose wrote: Sorry to nitpick but united are still in the fa cup and arsenal are already knocked out
Fantastic nitpic, clear idiocy on my part. United and Ars should be swapped in that sentence. :mrgreen:


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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by blahblah »

Stemania wrote: 10 Jan 2018, 22:54 It's pretty moot as to whether odds represent very precise probabilities
Nope, as above England are shorter here to win stuff then Bookmakers abroad (OK, I am old and maybe T'internet has evened this out, but and it is a huge ASS: a big Club will always be shorter than they should be against a smaller Club due to the "tribal" money bet ie never bet on the Toon :wink:

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Sutter Kane wrote: Do the book makers not have to produce odds before people start betting? I assume they must do, and if they do, how much do they generally change over time? My view is that bookies are so good at what they do, they can very often get it close to spot on before any betting sways the market slightly. Have I got this procedure all wrong?

I have to say that when I first see odds appear regarding a particular sports event, I rarely if ever disagree with their initial estimation...

Yes they do. But the key thing is that they can predict where the weight of money will be - in other words which options (horses/trainers/teams/players/golfers...) their punters will most be likely to support. The odds are tailored to this because these betting patterns (which they can predict with high accuracy from historical data) are actually what they need to make money from. Therefore the odds don't represent probabilities, they aren't even trying to do that.

Professional money will adjust this to a degree but professionals generally don't bet on events with random occurrences in them. Such as betting on who reaches the QFs when there are two random draws yet to come.

Typically 4 or 5 PL games survive in QF week and I doubt it will be far from that this season. But really that's a red herring. The issue isn't how many, it's which ones. And that's where the odds contained in that spreadsheet were/are misleading. Less so now the 4th round draw has happened and it will be less so still when the 5th round has been drawn.

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Billy Bongo »

So basically, it's looking like we ride 28 and 31, wc in 32 for 33, BB or TC in 34, FH in 35

The main thing being the doubles in 34 will blank in 35, the FH and wc as a combo for 34 and 35 are thus huge. If you've burned either, negotiating those two weeks will be much harder

37 will be what it will be,

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Re: Fixtures, Blanks, Doubles & Chips 2017/18

Post by Sutter Kane »

Billy Bongo wrote: So basically, it's looking like we ride 28 and 31, wc in 32 for 33, BB or TC in 34, FH in 35

The main thing being the doubles in 34 will blank in 35, the FH and wc as a combo for 34 and 35 are thus huge. If you've burned either, negotiating those two weeks will be much harder

37 will be what it will be,

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It changes every week it seems...and may continue to do that. In terms of WC I think having glanced at the fixtures, I prefer GW33. The only issue with that is the lack of transfers after it to make any changes. GW35 is FH possibly so that's a transfer wasted. Hopefully we won't need many or perhaps it is best to WC GW32...

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