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Is hopping on and off too risky

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Football Hero
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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Football Hero »

MPTree wrote: 24 Sep 2017, 15:09
Football Hero wrote: 24 Sep 2017, 14:43
MPTree wrote: 24 Sep 2017, 14:07 I think for the sake of the discussion (and based on SpiderM4tt's original intent when coining the term), it's helpful to think of HOHO as a strategy characterised by short term transfers. Defining short term as 1-3 GWs seems reasonable. Any transfers made for a period of (say) 4 GWs or longer could more realistically just be referred to as "a transfer".

HOHO: A strategy defined by making transfers for the short term (1-3GWs) in the hopes of capitalising on promising form or fixtures.

More than happy for that definition to be challenged if we can make it more accurate. I have problems with it, because a) attacking returns are difficult to predict, and b) I don't particularly believe in "form" (but that's a separate discussion). Everything's context and squad dependant of course, and I'm sure I've transferred players in for very brief spells in the past, but generally speaking I don't think it's particularly wise. I especially think HOHOHO (on, off, and on again) is detrimental to FPL success.
There's no need to make a distinction though, they are both just 'transfers'. It offers no advantage to try and segregate them like this.

What if you planned to get player A in for two weeks, (therefore a HOHO transfer supposedly), then at the time you are meant to transfer them out, another player in your team gets injured, (player B), so you remove player B instead and player A ends up kicking around in your team for five weeks in the end, instead of the two weeks that you planned.

That would mean that in actual fact you had made a 'normal' transfer for them originally instead of a 'HOHO' transfer. Except all this really amounts to is arbitrary labelling at this point and it doesn't really change the substance of what you're actually doing, which is just making transfers that you think are profitable and in your team's best interests each week.
One of the most significant things theory does is put labels on things and give stuff names, so I disagree that it's not helpful to make distinctions like this.

It's far too basic a model (for me anyway) to suggest that every transfer is just like every other. Aside from captaincy and benching decisions, the game is just a series of transfers. We have strategies and plans in mind when we make these transfers, so it makes perfect sense to differentiate between them in ways that help us better understand the game.

In the example you've quoted above, your aggressive transfer strategy has been hampered by the need to replace an injured player. You have, I believe, identified the key weakness in the HOHO strategy - that the squad is likely to suffer elsewhere.

I think there's really only four types of transfer strategy, with finer points to discuss among each, and probable cross-over in places:

Aggressive transfers, or HOHO: Transferring players for the short term.
Mid-term transfers: I'd say most active managers plan for the mid-term (5 GWs or more) and that most transfers fall in this category.
Long-term transfers: We normally refer to these as 'set and forget', barring injury.
TV transfers: Transfers made in an attempt to build team value.

These four types of transfer are made for different reasons, and it can only be helpful to know the benefits and pitfalls of each.
But transfer plans can change due to injuries, thus converting a HOHO transfer to a mid-term transfer or vice-versa.

So if there are supposedly some inherent benefits and pitfalls relating to only HOHO tranfers and a different set of inherent benefits and pitfalls relating to mid-term transfers, then how can this be when a HOHO transfer can easily become a mid-term transfer and vice-versa due to other random players in your team getting injured? It doesn't make any sense for this to be the truth because the transfers can become interchangeable so easily. Therefore there is no real distinction that one can make and derive any benefit from making such a distinction.

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Zimmerman »

Football Hero wrote: 24 Sep 2017, 13:47
Zimmerman wrote: 24 Sep 2017, 12:09

I've also since found that looking at the Top 8 players if you used Biffs sports almanac it would have been possible to hit 1100 points if you happened upon THE best pick each week (out of the main big hitters).

Is this 1100 points from choosing the best pick, or the pick that actually turned out to score the most points in a given week? If it's the latter, (which I suspect you mean), then 1100 points is not actually possible.
Sorry, it was 1020 (unto and inc. Week 36).

Using these 10 players:
Kane / Lukaku / Aguero / Costa / Ibrahimovic
Sanchez / Allí / Hazard / KdB / Eriksen

and Biffs Sports Almanac you could have amassed 1020.

But thats unlikely right?

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Zimmerman »

UPTO WEEK 36:

FISO Consensus would have pulled you 520 *

Using this captaincy thread we can see that with free will and some of FISO's finest minds got these totals:

Biff's Alamanac 1020
Redsnout 616
Dino1980 589
Ruth_NZ 576
PAYET 531
FISO 520
ardragreen 524
Hotstepper 522
Aldershot Rejects 517
sunbather 515
Carver 471
Billy Bongo 468
paulista 455
alan1289 450
MoSe 446

Yet simply picking a captain and sticking would yield:

Sanchez 456
Lukaku 422
Hazard 420
Alli 414
Eriksen 402
Costa 380
Kane 352
KdB 350
Ibrahimovic 326
Aguero 306

If you throw in the fact that Kane missed a 5 and a 4 week stretch and you picked an alternative (where you know there is a prolonged absence)

Kane + Lukaku 582
Kane + Aguero 552
Kane + Sanchez 552

and similarly Aguero's 2 and 4 week stretch:
Aguero + Kane 400
Aguero + Sanchez 412
Aguero + Lukaku 456

Where these is the odd week missed - I've let that ride (thats the luck of the draw sometimes).

Avoid top 7
Quickly looking at Kane (and without any great thought or emphasis on hindsight) picking Kane every week and avoiding Top 7 encounters... you'd have got 566.


* only 5 times did the FISO consensus pick out the highest scoring captain (from the elite list of ten players).

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Zimmerman
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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Zimmerman »

FPL Top 10 at Week 36
1 599
2 553
3 648
4 612
5 542
6 554
7 578
8 523
9 574
10 566

They average 575 for their captain picks.

Football Hero
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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Football Hero »

So essentially there's about 100 points to be gained in the first 36 weeks by switching your captain around instead of sticking. That's huge, almost 3 points a week, particularly when before the season starts you wouldn't even know which player would have been the best permanent captain for your team for the season, (for example you may have guessed it would be Costa as your permanent captain with Kane covering Costa's known blanks, and of course you would have been wrong and it would cost(a) you even more than 100 points).

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Stemania »

I remember spidey giving ridiculous amounts of time to discuss his ideas in detail a few years back - he's such a nice guy, real shame he's not around FISO so much now. :(

The odd thing about the term HOHO - from being extensively dull and pernickety in asking spidey in detail about it at the time (because like others above I don't really see it as that different from usual FPL play) :oops: - was that HOHO wasn't really about swapping around the premium captains every few weeks for the best fixtures (to captain them in). That's basically what's done by everyone all the time (e.g. many of us bringing in Kane for SWA or Aguero for CRY - and maybe this week many will Lukaku CRY) and seems to be the context the term seems to be widely used nowadays.

That was my impression anyway; it was more about extending the standard practice of switching super-premiums captains with good form/fixture runs to the next bracket down, to the 8-9.5 mids/attackers as well; and generally being slightly more aggressive in swapping such players for good fixtures. In fact, I think I came to the conclusion from talking through it that basically being slightly more aggressive with expensive players was another way of putting it. Maybe it's just psychologically easier to justify making a big transfer if we have an acronym with can refer to? Maybe it's just that put labels on things and give stuff names somehow is useful as a clarification method as MPTree suggests - there's probably something in that. But, tbh, I still see questions like whether Lukaku should be brought in this week over, say, Aguero as something that should independent of any overarching aggressiveness strategy (acronym based on not). Once future plans are taken into account (will it cost another hit transfer later, what will I do next week, will I lose too much cash for it to be worth the potential gains?) it's either a good idea in terms of points potential or it isn't, right?

The reason for HOHO's inception in the first place was the observation that there was more attacking talent/depth than in previous years, which I guess is why it naturally comes up now too (though that's basically said every year I suppose). Obviously the whole premise only works if you don't have too many fires elsewhere since being the more aggressive you are with your intentions the more transfer(/hit) intensive your way of playing becomes. Since having zero fires never really happens (in my team anyway) I would ere towards saying I never really 'use HOHO'; personally I'd say the level of aggression used in moving players in and out should vary throughout the season depending on the number of those fires elsewhere at that time. But that's less to do with 'aggression' and more to do with availability of transfers and judgment of taking specific hits. :)

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Billy Bongo »

Sorry I mentioned it i retract bringing it up seems more hassle than it's worth

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk


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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Stemania »

Billy Bongo wrote: 24 Sep 2017, 16:06 Sorry I mentioned it i retract bringing it up seems more hassle than it's worth
:lol: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Zimmerman »

Image

the red ones are games against top 7 sides

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Zimmerman »

Football Hero wrote: 24 Sep 2017, 15:56 So essentially there's about 100 points to be gained in the first 36 weeks by switching your captain around instead of sticking. That's huge, almost 3 points a week, particularly when before the season starts you wouldn't even know which player would have been the best permanent captain for your team for the season, (for example you may have guessed it would be Costa as your permanent captain with Kane covering Costa's known blanks, and of course you would have been wrong and it would cost(a) you even more than 100 points).
Indeed. I think the reason i started thinking or looking at this was wondering how risky it was.
Would i always be chasing the Morata hat-trick, when sticking with a Kane or Aguero double would have sufficed.

A Kane, Sanchez (and Aguero as Kane sub) wouldn't have been a ridiculous bus to be on at the start of the season?
That would have brought in 568.

Thats almost at the same level as the top 10 in the whole FPL (who averaged 575)
Beats 10/13 of the FISO players who declared their captain hauls
Easily beats the consensus captain pick.

Meanwhile you can use your FT/not a free transfer to pick and swap a defender or whomever else needs replacing in your team to also maximise points elsewhere (without a minus 4 thrown in to the deal)?

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Zimmerman »

Image


The green ones were the consensus captain picks.

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by MoSe »

.
Last edited by MoSe on 25 Sep 2017, 08:46, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Arsenal4EvERr »

I don't own Lukaku, would obviously want him this week. Just got in Aguero this week at the cost of a -4. Not sure whether to do Aguero :arrow: Lukaku and reverse it the week after. Or just go without Lukaku and captain Lacazette at home to Brighton?

Unsure about this as just seems like it could backfire and also means I can't sort any other transfers out unless I want to take more hits...have already taken 3 this season.

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Sutter Kane »

Depends on whether you have any other transfers to make or have planned to make any. If not it might be worth it.

All things being equal, I'd probably hold and captain Lacazette as Lukaku's fixtures get much tougher straight after Palace. (the kind of tough games Mourinho goes for 0-0). Also Arsenal could batter Brighton.

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Arsenal4EvERr »

Sutter Kane wrote: 24 Sep 2017, 18:54 Depends on whether you have any other transfers to make or have planned to make any. If not it might be worth it.

All things being equal, I'd probably hold and captain Lacazette as Lukaku's fixtures get much tougher straight after Palace. (the kind of tough games Mourinho goes for 0-0). Also Arsenal could batter Brighton.
Good point, will just have to hope Lukaku doesn't go mad I guess. Haven't got any urgent changes I don't think but may do Alonso :arrow: Kolasinac to free up some money and also he has the much better fixture and I think he can match Alonsos returns in the long run.

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by DAREEL »

My plan is to hop on Kaku then hop back off for long term. I may not even bother and save the ft.

Morata kun Kane is where I need to be

Kaku doesn't appeal to me playing in such a negative side. Their gift of a start is coming to an end and i.expect Jose to go all boring again. Mkhy is also going and I'll be going without UTD attack. There are better attacking teams out there

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Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by MPTree »

Football Hero wrote:
But transfer plans can change due to injuries, thus converting a HOHO transfer to a mid-term transfer or vice-versa.

So if there are supposedly some inherent benefits and pitfalls relating to only HOHO tranfers and a different set of inherent benefits and pitfalls relating to mid-term transfers, then how can this be when a HOHO transfer can easily become a mid-term transfer and vice-versa due to other random players in your team getting injured? It doesn't make any sense for this to be the truth because the transfers can become interchangeable so easily. Therefore there is no real distinction that one can make and derive any benefit from making such a distinction.
If I'm understanding you correctly then we shouldn't bother distinguishing between different types of strategies just because "our plans can change"? I can't see the logic in that, I'm afraid, and I'd be surprised to learn you didn't have specific goals in mind when you make your own transfers - it's what separates us from the casuals.

Having said that, this is all very academic in tone. Whist this stuff very much floats my boat, I totally understand that many managers understand all this intuitively and can't be arsed with such theoretical discussions. For those people - why not? - a transfer is just a transfer.

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Football Hero »

MPTree wrote: 25 Sep 2017, 08:00
Football Hero wrote:
But transfer plans can change due to injuries, thus converting a HOHO transfer to a mid-term transfer or vice-versa.

So if there are supposedly some inherent benefits and pitfalls relating to only HOHO tranfers and a different set of inherent benefits and pitfalls relating to mid-term transfers, then how can this be when a HOHO transfer can easily become a mid-term transfer and vice-versa due to other random players in your team getting injured? It doesn't make any sense for this to be the truth because the transfers can become interchangeable so easily. Therefore there is no real distinction that one can make and derive any benefit from making such a distinction.
If I'm understanding you correctly then we shouldn't bother distinguishing between different types of strategies just because "our plans can change"? I can't see the logic in that, I'm afraid, and I'd be surprised to learn you didn't have specific goals in mind when you make your own transfers - it's what separates us from the casuals.

Having said that, this is all very academic in tone. Whist this stuff very much floats my boat, I totally understand that many managers understand all this intuitively and can't be arsed with such theoretical discussions. For those people - why not? - a transfer is just a transfer.
It's not just that we shouldn't bother with these labels, it's that there is literally no advantage to be gained by doing so.

Presumably you believe that giving certain transfers a type of label and other transfers a different label, and then thinking about these two or more types of transfers in different ways, where each type has a different set of pros and cons, gains you some kind of advantage. If you didn't believe this then you wouldn't be raising this point as something worth thinking about surely.

I am saying that these types of transfers can easily end up interchangeable, (despite your original intentions when making the transfers), and so the pros and cons are the same for all transfers really, and there is not actually a closed set of exclusive pros and cons for each 'type' of transfer.

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by MPTree »

Football Hero wrote:
I am saying that these types of transfers can easily end up interchangeable, (despite your original intentions when making the transfers) ...
Totally agree.
Football Hero wrote: ... and so the pros and cons are the same for all transfers really ...
Totally disagree.

Now let me buy you a beer.

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Kuchi »

Still thinking about Aguero back to Lukaku this week. Massive ownership, most popular captain (overall). Lukaku to Aguero worked well last week but eventually the gamble will not pay off.

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by DAREEL »

Kuchi wrote: 26 Sep 2017, 10:13 Still thinking about Aguero back to Lukaku this week. Massive ownership, most popular captain (overall). Lukaku to Aguero worked well last week but eventually the gamble will not pay off.


Me too. I don't Agree that Its a gamble. Kun to outscore Kaku this season even with the odd game out. Kun in better team that score for fun. I think kun will be challenging Harry for golden boot myself if he stays fit.

Now I do think no Kaku could hurt this weekend. I'm 60 40 for making the change

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Football Hero »

MPTree wrote: 26 Sep 2017, 08:48
Football Hero wrote:
I am saying that these types of transfers can easily end up interchangeable, (despite your original intentions when making the transfers) ...
Totally agree.
Football Hero wrote: ... and so the pros and cons are the same for all transfers really ...
Totally disagree.

Now let me buy you a beer.
The same considerations need to be made for all your transfers, factoring in price rises and drops, how much value you lose if you sell a player, the potential points that you gain and whether a hit would be worth it etc. You need to consider the same factors for all of the supposed transfer types.

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Stower79 »

So, by looking at the numbers, a perfectly reasonable strategy last season would have yielded 696 points (by my rough calculations), by:

1. Always captaining Kane against any teams not in the Top 7; or
2. Captaining Aguero as second choice (if Aguero was not playing against Top 7) in the event Kane was playing against a Top 7 team or was injured; or
3. Captaining Lukaku or Costa based on either's better fixture IF Kane or Aguero were both injured and/or playing against Top 7; and
4. Captaining Sanchez for the DGW in GW37.

Following these few rules and utilising only 4 of the best proven striker options (plus no-brainer Sanchez in GW37) would have yielded 696 points from 38 weeks at an average of 18.3 points per game. Around 21 transfers would have been required with a HOHO type strategy, depending on squad structure.

With Aguero as number 1 choice and Kane as second choice the yield would have been 684 points by my rough calculations.

It is a pretty basic summation and not taking into account some other factors, but I think I would have been pretty happy with 696 points from my captain picks last season. Hindsight is a wonderful thing!

I imagine I will be following a similar strategy this season. At the moment Kane will be my default captain pick (as he scored more points per minute than any of the other premiums last season and seems to be picking up where he left off this season). I'd be surprised if my thinking will change throughout the season unless something major happens. Then it will be a case of removing the captaincy from him for the tougher matches or when injuries occur. It is just a case of identifying the next 'go to' pick and so far this season there are a number of candidates. But this would likely come down to fixture and form at the time.

Of course, the kicker is Kane may not turn out to be the best PPG point scorer this season. There are some other interesting candidates including Lukaku and Aguero.

At the start of the season, I tried to work out how many points would be required from my captain each week and I thought 16 points per match was a good target. This was based roughly on Kane's points per match last season. This would yield 608 points for the season. So far, I have 84 from 6 matches at an average of 14 per match.

Great thread and some interesting points made. If anything, it does hammer home how important the captaincy pick is in FPL. Maybe obvious to some people, but you can understand FPL players taking hits to get the right captain in. However, I think with the right strategy this can be avoided.

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Stower79 »

Another thing from last seasons data (which is admittedly a small sample size) is the disparity in PPG scoring of the premium strikers when they face a Top 7 versus a team outside the Top 7.

None of Kane, Ibra, Aguero, Costa or Lukaku managed to average over 4.2 points per match against the Top 7 and in particular Lukaku and Aguero averaged closer to 3 points against the Top 7. On the flip side they all averaged close to or over 7 points per match against the teams outside the top 7 (Kane being the highest at 7.88 per match). And this obviously didn't include GW37 or GW38. That sort of stat would definitely make me think twice about captaining a player against a Top 7 team, which although I don't make a habit of, I have done on occasions in past seasons. File under 'fixture proof'?

Interestingly, the disparity is a lot less with the midfielders such as Sanchez, Hazard, KDB, Eriksen and Alli. In fact Alli and Hazard actually averaged more points against the Top 7, than when they played teams outside the Top 7! A small sample size for sure, and it would be interesting to see if the numbers were similar in previous seasons. But food for thought.

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Jason Bourne »

Great post. Will definitely be keeping this mind for future captain picks.

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by jacksosi »

I’m in the middle of a mini HOHO currently

I have Kane who is a lock for the foreseeable with only 2 hard fixtures in the next 11

Last week Chico ️ Kun (CPL)
This week Kun (che) ️ Lacazette (BHA)
Next week Kak (liv + declining fixtures ) ️ Kun/Morata (great fixtures)

The issue is that Lacazette / Kun / Morata all have good fixtures at the same time, so which to take ??




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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by Zimmerman »

Play safe and back Kane is the moral of this story ;)

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by blahblah »

Zimmerman wrote: 27 Sep 2017, 07:56 Play safe and back Kane is the moral of this story ;)
Except for the Wembley jinx :wink:

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by FF Newbie »

Hi, this is my first post here. I joined today. I've been reading this board with interest. Could you advise me please?

I brought in Aguero for Lukaku last gameweek and he rose 0.3 in price. I'm considering bringing in Lukaku back in for Aguero and back out again. I'm not sure it's a good idea though, because I'll be losing the price rise and it'll cost me 8 points for my transfers next gameweek instead of nothing. I also have Kane who I could captain. Should I hop on hop off with Lukaku to Aguero to Lukaku and finally Aguero?

Thanks. First post.

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Re: Is hopping on and off too risky

Post by DAREEL »

I'm in exact same posotion

Not doing it and saving the .1 and 2ft would help me so much more moving fwd. Including bringing in morata after IB and 2ft over the IB

But with a 1.3 rank and all my ml's massivly owning him I don't wanna go further behind especially for a 2 week break. Being fed up and disheartned for 2 weeks makes me think I should bring him in. Although I'm captaining the one that's world class...so once again lukaku would just be a defensive dullard move.

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