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Eden Hazard

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baganboy
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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by baganboy »

Skrtel wrote: 21 Sep 2017, 22:42
baganboy wrote: 21 Sep 2017, 20:30 Will hazard give me ~25 points (3.5 points every 5 GW) more than the 9.5 Sadio Mane / Dele Alli i can have instead in my team?
But will Hazard AND Mane/Alle/Eriksen/Coutinho + a cheaper option than Kane(Jesus, Morata, Firmino) upfront give you more points? ;)
That is the FFS Scoutcast way of FPL discussion. I would not lie, I often inch towards going by that exchange-barter-system way of thinking as well.
Is my sack of potatoes the equivalent of that fishing hook over there? Yes/No/maybe. But are (my the sack of potatoes + a bucket of milk) the equivalent of (the fishing hook and the piece of rope)? Yes/No/Maybe. That is a legitimate way of thinking, something that I am quite okay with.

Caveat, though, is that we are not playing with three players, we are playing with 15, of which 11 will be in the field, and we are trying to maximise overall points, and not points for 3 players we consider. Thus I am slowly moving to the expected points comparison.

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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by Stemania »

MoSe wrote: 21 Sep 2017, 22:54I never ran such analysis on my own, but since I got here in Sept 2014, all vets posted assuming/reporting that by proof or consensus it was 20p.
I can't quite remember what the general feeling used to be - something like 20-25 points per season for that type of calc seems to ring a bell indeed. I recall that the main problems in using 'value rates' of this kind are that in practice

1) These value rates should vary across positions (i.e., if you naively calculate ppm for every player and put in line of best fits for gks, defs, mids, atts then the lines all cross the y-axis at different places) so a one-size-fits-all number isn't that useful in practice

2) Value rates within a position should vary every season as players change in price, vary between positions during the season as players change in price, and those rates also vary season to season.

3) Calculating a value rate (a slope of a line of best fit) is questionable since value is not linear even within a position, i.e., the difference in price-vs-expected-points is different for more expensive players than cheap players. Indeed, taking into account rotation or captaincy makes it very difficult to apply it to cheap players or expensive players repectively. In fact, the whole method of calculating value purely by a points-per-million calc is questionable.

4) Most such calculations choose an arbitrary 'base-price cut off' to help determine how much 0.5m is 'worth', usually in the ones I've seen over the years 0.5m below the cheapest player (but sometimes at the price of the cheapest player - meaning base pricers have 'infinite' value and are only used as the starting point team rather than potential replacement - and sometimes 'actual 0.0m' giving precisely the PPM stat). The fact that this cutoff is arbitrary and you get a different value rate from every such cutoff is a fundamental flaw with the calcs.

5) If you want to be able to apply it to your team in practice, you want your calc to not only efficiently use your budget, but also to use enough of your budget, and pure value calcs do not work this way. This is because 'value' players tend to easily stand out and we don't need a value stat to identify them. Value calcs somehow tend to tell you about/are based on what your 'average player' at a given price should be getting, but in reality we're only considering a small pool of players at the top end of each price point.

6) In practice, I don't think anyone really uses such numbers to calculate whether a transfer is worth it or not anyway (maybe once or twice as an exercise while it's a hot topic), so these calcs are not readily maintained.

So, to work out whether Hazard in for, say, a Spurs mid is worth it, it's probably better just to work in a more algorithmic manner and simply look at with the combo in mind; so just ask, do I think spending 1m on player x over my player y will get me more points than Hazard will over Alli? So it's the exchange-barter-system using an expected points comparison that ultimately tends to win for me too, as bagan puts it. :D

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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by blahblah »

Ruth did some stuff on this in his RMT, and it may be worth puling it out into a separate thread if he is OK with it.

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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by Skrtel »

He looked sharp the minutes he payed... The question is, will he outscore Morata the next 4 GWs (that looks quite good except from the City game)?

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gallus
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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by gallus »

I think 3 premium forwards is the way to go this year. There are plenty of great mids in the 5.5 - 9.0 range.

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Sutter Kane
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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by Sutter Kane »

Well it might look that way after GW6 but wait for certain members of the mid club containing the prices from Mane upward start firing on all cylinders. We'll then be left wondering whether Mane and Hazard are better value than the likes of Aguero and Lukaku, All these players are 200+ pointers over the course of a season and you can only captain one player so midfielders like Mane are good value at 9.4mn imo. Given we start having to already spend around 2/3 of the 100mn for base pricers, in getting 3 premium forwards, suddenly that's well over half of our remaining budget.

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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by Skrtel »

I am not so sure that three premium forwards is the way to go since you can save some funds on the good midfielders instead of premium strikers (Kane 12.5, Mané 9.5, for example) and there is actually some good attacking options like Firmino, Vardy that could score very well. A player like Chicharito could start firing aswell etc etc.

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gallus
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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by gallus »

Sutter Kane wrote: 25 Sep 2017, 17:11 Well it might look that way after GW6 but wait for certain members of the mid club containing the prices from Mane upward start firing on all cylinders. We'll then be left wondering whether Mane and Hazard are better value than the likes of Aguero and Lukaku, All these players are 200+ pointers over the course of a season and you can only captain one player so midfielders like Mane are good value at 9.4mn imo. Given we start having to already spend around 2/3 of the 100mn for base pricers, in getting 3 premium forwards, suddenly that's well over half of our remaining budget.
Mane is a good option, and completely affordable in a 4-3-3 with 3 premium strikers if you own a budget mid under 6.5.

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um09a2k
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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by um09a2k »

Morata is cheaper and more secure than Hazard. There's a large pool of quality midfielders at Chelsea competing for 4 places. Kante will almost always take one of these spots, and the remainder will be between Bakayoko, Fabregas, Pedro, Willian and Hazard. With midweek CL games against tough opponents like Atletico and Roma, you can expect constant shuffles among the midfielders. Morata is competing with Batshuayi who is a class below and will probably only start against weaker opposition, plus Morata has shown he can get points off the bench.

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Cars and Mané
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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by Cars and Mané »

Not sure what to make of this interview.

‘I will miss some games, I will play bad for some games. I just want to play football and try to bring the best of me.’

http://metro.co.uk/2017/10/10/eden-haza ... y-6989062/

Understand him wanting to manage expectations but why would he miss games? Surely he needs to build his fitness by playing games! Started both games for Belgium, while Lukaku and KDB were rested. Scored a cracking first goal tonight as well.

Viable option?

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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by Panserjohan »

Not jumping on the Hazard train just jet, waiting a few games..

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huwdo
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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by huwdo »

i've brought him in. I'm terribly behind in all my mini-leagues so need differentiators to make up some ground...

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From4corners
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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by From4corners »

Panserjohan wrote: 11 Oct 2017, 08:30 Not jumping on the Hazard train just jet, waiting a few games..
You might regret that, as the next games are pretty tempting to take a punt. Will probably do the same.

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Kuchi
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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by Kuchi »

He is tempting but where do he fit? Drop either Spurs/Liverpool mid? Even then you need a million more. Or it is 2 million more than a City mid.

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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by From4corners »

Yup, good point. Taking Salah and Brady out for Hazard and Sterling is my route.

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baganboy
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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by baganboy »

I will have one GW without Hazard. One only. GW8.

I am pretty sure he will get 10+ in GW8, and then be poor for the next couple GWs.

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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by Gambit »

Cars and Mané wrote: 10 Oct 2017, 21:25 Not sure what to make of this interview.

‘I will miss some games, I will play bad for some games. I just want to play football and try to bring the best of me.’

http://metro.co.uk/2017/10/10/eden-haza ... y-6989062/

Understand him wanting to manage expectations but why would he miss games? Surely he needs to build his fitness by playing games! Started both games for Belgium, while Lukaku and KDB were rested. Scored a cracking first goal tonight as well.

Viable option?
not sure what to do, I'd like to bring him in as his fixtures are excellent and his ownership is less than 4%! but those quotes are worrying. any kind of knock or twinge and he won't be playing.

Looking at the Chelsea schedule and taking into account he's just played two international games will he start all these?:

Crystal Palace (A) – Sat 14 Oct Roma – Champions League (H) – Wed 18 Oct Watford (H) – Sat 21 Oct Everton – League Cup (H) – Wed 25 Oct Bournemouth (A) – Sat 28 Oct Roma – Champions League (A) – Tue 31 Oct Manchester United (H) – Sun 5 Nov West Brom (A) – Sat 18 Nov

Everton cup game will be a rest, but if he's certain to play midweek v Roma will be play both league games either side? With Morata and Kante out I wouldn't have thought they would want to be without Hazard too, but Palace and Watford should be beatable without him. It's a lot to pay if he's not playing each week or getting subbed early because he's being protected or having his fitness managed.

I'm sure he'll start but I hate doubts over premium picks.

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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by Hotstepper »

Is Pedro any more likely to play than Hazard? Or equally likely?

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Oxford NZ
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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by Oxford NZ »

Hotstepper wrote: 11 Oct 2017, 20:25 Is Pedro any more likely to play than Hazard? Or equally likely?
Pedro may be less likely to get 60+ than Eden imo. He may play more cup and Euro games.

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Kuchi
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Re: Eden Hazard

Post by Kuchi »

Current draft has him in .... Still not 100%. Its either him or a Spurs/Pool mid.

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