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Awful start. How much ground can be made up?

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MGPT
Treebeard
Posts: 155
Joined: 31 Jan 2017, 13:29

Awful start. How much ground can be made up?

Post by MGPT »

Having by far my worst start to an FPL season, currently at a disgusting 2.8m.

Previous finishes have been 145k, 32k, 34k and 4.1k and I have generally been around the 800k-1m mark at this stage of the year. My aim is to win my cash league which would probably require a 10k-ish finish and I always strive to finish with a 4-figure ranking.

Part of me feels like giving up on this season already as I can't see how I can make 10k from here. But part of me feels like I am just on the dark side of variance and could be doing much better had a couple of Kane chances gone in or maybe a Ben Mee header or two...

What do you think is a realistic target from here- 10k, 20k, 50k? Less?

And what strategy would you employ? Is it too early for differential captains?

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Zimmerman
FISO Jedi Knight
Posts: 30211
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:42
Location: having a picnic at the Bear Mountain

Re: Awful start. How much ground can be made up?

Post by Zimmerman »

Im not an FPL expert, but in general terms I'd say it's better to be calm and play your normal game.

You'll get the run of the green soon enough and plenty of others will make detrimental knee jerk reactions and/or poor decisions.

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Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3210
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09
FS Record: Maybe all is not lost after all

Re: Awful start. How much ground can be made up?

Post by Archy »

If you'd had Aguero this week and captained him where would you be now?

The reason I ask is because that's how easy it is to make up ground. One player doing well on one week and you can make huge inroads.

On another note, it has not been an easy start generally and two of the FFS Hall of Fame are ranked 2.3m and 2.9m after GW5....I have little doubt they are still aiming for top 10k. See the report on their GW4 position below.

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2 ... -4-review/

carver
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1650
Joined: 15 Jan 2010, 00:20
FS Record: Top 50k last 4 seasons . Mr Consistent

Re: Awful start. How much ground can be made up?

Post by carver »

Stop stressing , fpl is supposed to be fun

Its only GW5, you can only be 70 points off top 10k

If you are good enough you will make it up

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Mo Bot
Dumbledore
Posts: 7211
Joined: 15 Oct 2005, 13:59
FS Record: Inaugural Last Man Standing. FISO Fantasy Eurovision champ 2012. World #1 in UFPL for a whole week

Re: Awful start. How much ground can be made up?

Post by Mo Bot »

325 points is top 10k so I think you're about 100 behind that. 3 points per gameweek is pretty much nothing so play your own game and everything will come right

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Ruth_NZ
Grumpy Old Gorilla
Posts: 9156
Joined: 25 May 2015, 22:46

Re: Awful start. How much ground can be made up?

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Don't even look at OR. It means very little as yet.

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Kuchi
FISOhead
Posts: 575
Joined: 24 May 2017, 11:35
Location: London
FS Record: Best: 16/17- 481

Re: Awful start. How much ground can be made up?

Post by Kuchi »

OR right now means nothing really. A couple of seasons ago I have 977k at Christmas and still finished 14k. With your history you know what you are doing. Keep making good solid moves and your rank will get back to where it should be.

MGPT
Treebeard
Posts: 155
Joined: 31 Jan 2017, 13:29

Re: Awful start. How much ground can be made up?

Post by MGPT »

Cheers guys, very encouraging. Never been this far back so early so definitely panicking a bit!

OIEIAO
FISOhead
Posts: 981
Joined: 27 Aug 2014, 22:13

Re: Awful start. How much ground can be made up?

Post by OIEIAO »

You can easily make top 10k and I say this as someone that has never done so. I made it from 2m to 150k in about the final 20 weeks of last season and by no means did I do everything right (e.g. I triple captained Aguero the week he only got 9).

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YourMumsModesty
Treebeard
Posts: 157
Joined: 26 Jul 2014, 04:00
FS Record: 2019/20: 33,413

Re: Awful start. How much ground can be made up?

Post by YourMumsModesty »

I had an unideal start to 2015-16 and pretty much gave up and phoned it in until around the DGWs when I perked up again.

Last season I found myself around 375k around GW21 and just went for broke and ended up finishing 38k overall.

I didn't know climbs like that were doable, so that's been quite motivating and reassuring. It's a long season and mistakes here and there aren't always fatal.

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Sutter Kane
Dumbledore
Posts: 7522
Joined: 05 Aug 2010, 12:13
FS Record: Unknown.

Re: Awful start. How much ground can be made up?

Post by Sutter Kane »

Yep echo what people are saying. The worse thing you can do is look for differentials for the sake of 'having to be different to catch up'.

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baganboy
Comfortably Dumb(ledore)
Posts: 5874
Joined: 05 Aug 2008, 06:59
FS Record: 2011/12 - 212. 2019/20 - 222.
Altogether 6 top 10Ks. 8 top 20Ks. 9 top 50Ks.

Re: Awful start. How much ground can be made up?

Post by baganboy »

You have almost exactly as much chance of making top 10K (or even top 1K) now as you used to when the season started.

You have less chances of making 1st now, with a bad start.

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