Can you beat Artificial Intelligence?

[Football Hero]

Is it beating Ruth?

I doubt it considering Ruth is one of the best fantasy players around.

[Talkie Toaster]

I've just done a quick check on how these AIs are doing so far.

SquadGuru is holding its own fairly well with a score of 666 and a rank of 340,466.
It hasn't played any chips or wildcards.
Its best GW rank is 70,540 in GW7 and its highest overall rank was 253,560 after GW10.

Current Squad:
Lloris Elliot
Lowton Davies Ward Mbemba Otamendi
Groß Salah Sterling Sané Oriol Romeu
Gray Vardy Kane

Squad Value: 99.4
Bank: 2.3
Total: 101.7

BotMaster by comparison is having a total mare.
Its score is 489 and rank is 4,227,169.
It played the TC chip in GW6, captaining Rooney for 1pt x 3.
It played the FH chip in GW7, for 43pts (GW average was 51) - sticking with the GW6 team would have scored 51.
Its best GW rank is 2,125,411 in GW4 and its highest overall rank was 2,594,946 after GW1.

Current Squad:
Cech Lloris
Bellerin Vertonghen Baines Alderweireld Rüdiger
Willian Mahrez Redmond Xhaka Fàbregas
Gabbiadini Vardy Rashford

Squad Value: 96.8
Bank: 0.9
Total: 97.7

Season over

[bloggie]

Botmaster's team looks like a Fantasy Draft team. Must be two different programmers.

[baganboy]

Not yet sure But someday they will beat us. And I can bet you that the someday we'll be within the next 10 years.

Every year brings in more data. every year brings in more top players and their playing style - FPL managers I mean. within 10 years I am sure that the data will be enough that with analytics and machine learning, bots will Smash us.

[FootballFanatic]

Just because it's doing badly doesn't mean there isn't great thought behind it. FPL is very much a game of luck and I've seen that over the years in my league. My girlfriend came top 100 one year on FPL and she doesn't really give a shit about football. So there you go. Lol.

[Talkie Toaster]

Another quick look-in going into the final stages of the season.

SquadGuru is still making a decent showing with a score of 1,484 and improving its rank to 115,992.
It didn't play its first wildcard until GW19 and still has its second wildcard.
It also still has all of the other chips.
Its best GW rank is 17,711, just missing the ton with a score of 97 (average was 58) in GW23. Its highest overall rank was 55,081 also in GW23.
Lost in the first round of the cup 37 - 56 to a live team ranked 2,505,951 at the time.

Current Squad:
Lloris Speroni
Alonso Aké Tomkins Zanka Otamendi
Pogba Salah Sterling Oxlade-Chamberlain Mooy
Murray Wilson Kane

Squad Value: 100.0
Bank: 2.1
Total: 102.1

BotMaster has only managed modest improvements.
Its score is 1,145 and rank is 3,866.293.
It still has its second Wildcard and BB chip.
Its best GW rank is 420,507 in GW21 and its highest overall rank is still its GW1 standing of 2,594,946.
BotMaster didn't qualify for the cup.

Current Squad:
Cech Lloris
Bellerin Vertonghen Otamendi Ward Rüdiger
Richarlison Zaha Sterling Son Albrighton
Chicharito Vardy Depoitre

Squad Value: 96.5
Bank: 0.0
Total: 96.5


It will be interesting to see if they do anything special to handle the BGWs and DGWs or just plough through them.
SquadGuru looks like it's already fairly well positioned to deal with GW31 though. I wonder if that's by accident or design?

[blahblah]

115k is seriousl impressive - assuming the Program is doing all the stuff.

[Talkie Toaster]

As you say - assuming it's legit, it is impressive.
A little short of its top 1% target, but still plenty of the season left.

I find it interesting that SquadGuru saved its WC until GW19.
During the first half of the season it only took one 4pt hit in GW2 and steadily used all its FTs.
Then with its WC it completely tore up the team making 13 changes.
The following 5 GWs saw 5 green arrows with a rise of ~240k places.

So either:

1. It is good at looking far ahead and can make the changes it needs in good time with just FTs.
2. It doesn't look too far ahead and fails to recognise the benefits it could get by playing the WC.
3. It values the WC as a safety net against lots of players getting injuries/suspensions/loss of form and hangs onto it until it's sure it doesn't need it.

It's been a bit more willing to take hits so far in the second half of the season, taking a -12 in GW22 and -4s in GWs 25 & 26.
Maybe it was just biding its time in the first half of the season and is getting more aggressive now that time is starting to run out.

[blahblah]

It would be interesting to see the high level design or philosophy, for want of a better word, for it.

[Chiptastic]

Doesn't look like it bothers about squad value yet, which will be a huge hindrance in the later stages.

Once they link its transfer considerations/timings up to the value rise predictors that will really help it.

[Talkie Toaster]

So how did the AIs do in the end and did you beat them?

SquadGuru has continued to improve and impress with a score of 2,270 and a final rank of 30,929. (Beats me! )
It played its 2nd wildcard in GW32, making wholesale changes to the squad after fielding a full 11 in BGW 31 for 98 pts and a GW Rank of 333,650.
In DGW 34 it played its Bench Boost fielding 12 players with double games for 108 pts and a GW Rank of 30,623.
In BGW 35 it played its Free Hit and fielded all 11 players plus a full bench for 60 pts and a GW Rank of 151,039.
In DGW 37 it TC'd Sterling for just 9pts and fielded 10 players with double games for 73 pts and a GW Rank of 1,956,508.

Its best GW rank is still 17,711 in GW23. Its highest overall rank was its final rank of 30,929.

Squad Value: 100.7
Bank: 0.9
Total: 101.6

It appears to have navigated the BGW & DGW period very well, although it did suffer from GW23 to GW30, dropping ~165,000 places, possibly as it was set up for BGW31 too early.
It failed on its TC choice, but it certainly wasn't alone in that.

BotMaster has continued to struggle.
Its final score is 1,711 and rank is 3,490,759.
It played its 2nd Wildcard in BGW31 and fielded 10 players for 86 pts and a GW Rank of 695,068.
It had just 5 double game players in DGW 34, but unfortunately kept 3 of them on the bench , scoring 61 pts and a GW Rank of 3,378,998.
In BGW 35 it fielded just 6 players for 25 pts and a GW Rank of 3,580,780.
In DGW 37 it had 6 players with double games, but kept 4 of them on the bench scoring 48 pts and a GW Rank of 5,236,373.
Its best GW rank is still 420,507 in GW21 and its highest overall rank is still its GW1 standing of 2,594,946.
It never bothered playing its Bench Boost

Squad Value: 91.0
Bank: 2.4
Total: 93.4

BotMaster didn't make any transfers or substitutions after playing its WC in GW31 so maybe it gave up or got turned off.
Maybe it's in Silicon Heaven with all the calculators.

Either way I don't think we can read too much into its inability to handle the BGWs & DGWs



SquadGuru's performance is very impressive though.
It would have achieved a position of 149 in the forum league so I should be in some pretty good company here being beaten by it.

[Talkie Toaster]

If I can't beat the AI team I'll give up FPL.

Ruth's FPL career is safe for another season!

[forestfan]

It doesn’t look like anything to me...

[Talkie Toaster]

It doesn’t look like anything to me...

Hopefully there wont be a violent end to these delights.

[carver]

Quite impressive how it navigated the blanks and doubles and used the chips . I suspect a little bit of human input to the decision making

[jacksosi]

BBC has a link saying squadguru came 112th

[jacksosi]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/technolog ... tball-team

[forestfan]

It doesn’t look like anything to me...

Hopefully there wont be a violent end to these delights.

Freeze all motor functions...

[Zimmerman]

BBC has a link saying squadguru came 112th

Think that was in a league of 2300 people (rather than overall). 2270 points

[Talkie Toaster]

BBC has a link saying squadguru came 112th

That's just in its own mini-league - Challenge the SquadGuru, which had a couple of thousand or so entrants.