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2017/18 FPL Price Changes and Team Value Monitoring

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Skrtel
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by Skrtel »

I have an (maybe stupid) question:

I kept Jesus during his price drop, is he likely to get that .1 back, and if so, will I get that .1 if I sell (you need .2 to get .1 if you sell)?

Same thing with J Rod.

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Mav3rick
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by Mav3rick »

Skrtel wrote: 27 Aug 2017, 20:11 I have an (maybe stupid) question:

I kept Jesus during his price drop, is he likely to get that .1 back, and if so, will I get that .1 if I sell (you need .2 to get .1 if you sell)?

Same thing with J Rod.
You'll get it back provided you don't sell him. The price rise "tax" only applies on price rises above your purchase price.

Jesus is rising in ownership, so you can keep an eye on FPLS to see if he's rising and how much he is progressing each day. By Wednesday the transfer activity will more or less die off for a week though.

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blahblah
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by blahblah »

Yeah, a defo keep for me...

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From4corners
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by From4corners »

blahblah wrote: 27 Aug 2017, 19:56 PS: you do not have to click the WC button until the last minute: then your Xfers will count for NTI\O....
Not going to do so myself this time as I'll be holidaying for two weeks throughout some national parks in the US. Can't risk that. Good thing I'll be leaving September 1st, so at least the transfer window will be shut.

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blahblah
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by blahblah »

re the TW, I wanted to wait until that settled down, as this could be a biggie Fantasy-wise

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math!
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by math! »

Doesn't seem like we can take advantage of double risers when the top candidates struggle to rise even once.

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blahblah
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by blahblah »

Have his odds been slashed by Skybet?

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Talkie Toaster
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by Talkie Toaster »

Kane finally dropped last night.
Looooong way to go to the next one though.

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blahblah
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by blahblah »

Loads of Xfers to be made between now and Saturday....

Resonare
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by Resonare »

How the heck did Vokes rise when he was only on 90% at half twelve this morning?

hancockjr
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by hancockjr »

...and ageuro dropping was, I think, completely unpredicted.

Finisher1
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by Finisher1 »

hancockjr wrote: 10 Sep 2017, 09:14 ...and ageuro dropping was, I think, completely unpredicted.
Not completely, if a player is more than -90.0 in FPL Statistics then it's always a risk. I think he was about -95.0.

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Billy Bongo
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by Billy Bongo »

Resonare wrote:How the heck did Vokes rise when he was only on 90% at half twelve this morning?
Not how, but why?

Sent from mobile


hancockjr
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by hancockjr »

Is he even sure if his place now Wood has arrived? Guess we'll find out in 10 minutes.

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MoSe
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by MoSe »

Both Wood and Vokes start

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eastcentral1
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by eastcentral1 »

There are so many decent premium striker options right now, it's hard to see any of them attracting a double rise, and in the case of Jesus who I own even a single rise to make back his loss in value.

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Joccki_10
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by Joccki_10 »

Had a quick look at FPL Stats and FFFix this morning. It really seems that price rises and falls won't happen as much as they did last season.

Subsequently I think this could be the year of the less-hit-takers - like Ville - or even the no-hit-takers. It will be important to be able to identify players who will deliver you a steady stream of points rather than a steady stream of price rises like could have been the case in some situations last season. Forward planning will be crucial in my opinion.

I certainly won't stress my team structure as much as I did last season and I will try not to panic again in poor gameweeks. Luckily I have my first wildcard out of the way so I can't use it when I'm frustrated. :)

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Turd Ferguson
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by Turd Ferguson »

Joccki_10 wrote: 12 Sep 2017, 09:42 Had a quick look at FPL Stats and FFFix this morning. It really seems that price rises and falls won't happen as much as they did last season.
Yes, it seems a bit slower, but perhaps there have been more early wildcards that have slowed down the price changes? I don't use any sites that track that sort of data, so I'll leave it to someone with more endeavor to check whether it's true or not.

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huwdo
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by huwdo »

I don't know the comparative stats from previous seasons but could it just be that we've had a few weeks in a row where people were quite sensible to delay decisions- spreading out the transfers (transfer deadline day, international break, return of the CL...)?

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Archy
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by Archy »

Scout says there is indeed a slow down in relative transfer activity . Not sure I buy it as a complete explanation, but here we go:


FINAL THOUGHTS

Looking at the numbers overall, what is becoming clear is that this season appears a different beast to the last one, with transfer volumes lower, despite the addition of over a million extra managers.

After last season’s supermarket sweep of a transfer market, with prices incredibly volatile, the numbers at the start of this term seem to show a swing towards a more conservative approach.

For instance, only 275,254 players used their Wildcard over the first international break, while in 2016/17, 310,522 activated the chip.

Additionally, total transfers between Gameweeks 3-4 only showed a very slight increase. We saw 7,863,661 transfers prior to Gameweek 4, compared with 7,268,511 during the same spell last season.

Remembering that there are 20% more players, this represents quite a downturn in activity.

When comparing transfers made during Gameweeks 2 and 3 across the two seasons, we witnessed over two million more each time in 2017/18. But this dropped to just 559,000+ more during the break.

This may be borne out of uncertainty when committing to transfers: the tendency for swaps in and out to backfire (in some cases spectacularly) in the opening Gameweeks may have prompted a cautious, wait and see approach.

Equally, it may be that injury and suspension have restricted managers to enforced changes rather than use multiple transfers to carry out surgery and move for bandwagons.

There are further factors to consider, though, with the return of some proven big hitters perhaps poised to break up the early template.

With the likes of Eden Hazard and Alexis Sanchez yet to have an impact on our seasons, managers may be showing early caution and reserving Wildcards and transfer hits with this in mind.

With fixtures swinging for some clubs from Gameweek 6, the market may well recover dramatically, with high activity due around that period.

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2 ... ameweek-4/

Finisher1
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by Finisher1 »

Tomorrow we will probably get some more information regarding a triple rise threshold. Aguero will probably exceed the current threshold set by FPL Statistics, but I guess their threshold for a third rise is just similar to a second rise, right? The thing is we don't really know what's a threshold for a triple rise in these days. I don't think any triple rise happened in the past two season, can someone confirm this? I recall they used to be very common in 2013-14.

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Joccki_10
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by Joccki_10 »

Finisher1 wrote:Tomorrow we will probably get some more information regarding a triple rise threshold. Aguero will probably exceed the current threshold set by FPL Statistics, but I guess their threshold for a third rise is just similar to a second rise, right? The thing is we don't really know what's a threshold for a triple rise in these days. I don't think any triple rise happened in the past two season, can someone confirm this? I recall they used to be very common in 2013-14.

I think we had a few last season, but I’m not sure.

Klaren
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by Klaren »

I don't understand some of the rises and falls at all:

Danilo is about to fall just after Mendy is injured and he got a clean sheet
Mee is about to fall when he just got a clean sheet in the last 2 home games he played
Davies is about to rise although he didn't play last week and only got 1 point this week.

People's transfer decisions really don't make any sense to me.

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fred1266
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by fred1266 »

Klaren wrote: 24 Sep 2017, 01:35 I don't understand some of the rises and falls at all:

Danilo is about to fall just after Mendy is injured and he got a clean sheet
Mee is about to fall when he just got a clean sheet in the last 2 home games he played
Davies is about to rise although he didn't play last week and only got 1 point this week.

People's transfer decisions really don't make any sense to me.
Mee falling about 2 weeks now so don't take it on the reading of rise and fall are incorrect

sunbather
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by sunbather »

Klaren wrote: 24 Sep 2017, 01:35 I don't understand some of the rises and falls at all:

Danilo is about to fall just after Mendy is injured and he got a clean sheet
Mee is about to fall when he just got a clean sheet in the last 2 home games he played
Davies is about to rise although he didn't play last week and only got 1 point this week.

People's transfer decisions really don't make any sense to me.
What I've gathered over the years is that casuals look at the first screen and total score, rather than current form or rotation etc. So they might have someone like Alonso who blanked, and see Davies at a cheaper price with more points and just make the transfer.

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by Ruth_NZ »

FFFix: "21 Sep: Price change update. 65 rises, 360 falls so far. 86 and 486 at same point last season. We can be sure by now the thresholds for rises and falls have been increased slightly, over and above the usual scaling for the increase in number of people playing FPL."

Finisher1
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by Finisher1 »

Aguero is now getting NTO, just a few transfers below his fourth rise.

Aguero's fourth rise: DENIED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Swish41
Kevin and Perry
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by Swish41 »

Hey guys, sorry if this has been discussed before, but i have a question. I got Firmino at the beggining of the season, now his buying price is 8.6 and his selling price is 8.5. If he drops again (like it is predicted) will he drop to 8.5 or 8.4. Thanks in advance!!

Caf
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by Caf »

He'll drop to 8.5 and your selling price will remain 8.5. Essentially it is a 'free' drop for you.

kingofpop
Treebeard
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Re: Team value and price rises

Post by kingofpop »

Will JESUS rice soon ???

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