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Why no love for Aguero?

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Bennett92
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Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Bennett92 »

Only 9.2% TSB when he's 1m cheaper than Harry Kane seems bizarre to me. On form and fully fit he is a must have in everyone's lineup. Or do people seem to think he is going to be pushed out by Jesus? Thoughts ......

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by DAREEL »

He's the bargain of the game imo. I've had him in every draft. Could easily be the top scoring player.

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Baerardi
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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Baerardi »

£11.5m is a lot of money to put down for someone who isn't guaranteed to play 35+ games this season. I think there's a lot of people unsure about which way Pep will go. He has all the options available to him to play with just Aguero, just Jesus, both or even neither.

Given the availability of more guaranteed starters in the Premium striker range, I don't realistically see people being left behind if they wait a few weeks to judge City's plan going forward first.

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Billy Bongo
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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Billy Bongo »

Sorry but it seems obvious, Pep clearly prefers Jesus and he's a prolific rotator to boot , plus Sane had more touches in the box for the second half of last season than any other player , in the prem not just City



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Terry Henry
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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Terry Henry »

Pep does seem to prefer Jesus so it's not certain if he'll get the full 90 every week. He can still be dangerous but I'd prefer the certainty of Kane, Lukaku, Morata etc playing all the time.

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Tacalabala »

Aguero has a role but I can't see him holding down a place now that Jesus is the main man.

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by DAREEL »

No disrespect but all this Kun non starting etc is all people trying to convince themselves based on internet talk. No doubt the ones that feel Kaku is better for whatever reason will argue against this

A few pep quotes after the period where kun was dropped and then came back

“It’s the best performance I’ve ever seen from Sergio,”

“I love him – the way he played – the way he was involved.”

My feeling before that he was just waiting to score a goal. Now he’s involved in the game. Not just the defensive part.”

"He made an amazing, amazing performance”


And more recent

"Last season we had Gabriel Jesus out for a long time – I would have like to have seen them (him and Aguero) play more together.”


Doesn't sound like a man who is about to play second fiddle but each to their own. I'm happy if he stays as the best differential in the history of FPL

Ignore him at your peril folks

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Stemania »

If he's a regular starter at 11.5m he looks fantastic (assuming he's still on pens), but City's squad is so ridiculous now it's hard to see anyone guaranteed to play all games. Perhaps KDB the most likely(?), but Pep just has so many options now in every attacking role!

I may well start with Kun though, because the first 4 games are CL free and he looks fairly assured of his place till then imo.

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by DAREEL »

Stemania wrote:If he's a regular starter at 11.5m he looks fantastic (assuming he's still on pens), but City's squad is so ridiculous now it's hard to see anyone guaranteed to play all games. Perhaps KDB the most likely(?), but Pep just has so many options now in every attacking role!

I may well start with Kun though, because the first 4 games are CL free and he looks fairly assured of his place till then imo.

That's what I'm doing . In FPL and sun Going to keep a mil in the bank then decide on who makes way in gw 3 when kane is at home to Burnley

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Baerardi
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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Baerardi »

DAREEL wrote:No disrespect but all this Kun non starting etc is all people trying to convince themselves based on internet talk. No doubt the ones that feel Kaku is better for whatever reason will argue against this

A few pep quotes after the period where kun was dropped and then came back

“It’s the best performance I’ve ever seen from Sergio,”

“I love him – the way he played – the way he was involved.”

My feeling before that he was just waiting to score a goal. Now he’s involved in the game. Not just the defensive part.”

"He made an amazing, amazing performance”


And more recent

"Last season we had Gabriel Jesus out for a long time – I would have like to have seen them (him and Aguero) play more together.”


Doesn't sound like a man who is about to play second fiddle but each to their own. I'm happy if he stays as the best differential in the history of FPL

Ignore him at your peril folks
Didn't you come on here raising the question? Seems like you're trying to convince yourself rather than the other way around. :lol:

It's also not about 'trying to convince myself otherwise' anyway. If Aguero and City show he's their main man I can happily put him in my squad in exchange for one of the other premium strikers in the safe knowledge that the potential points losses in a three/four/five week period will almost certainly be minimal in comparison to the first competition already in my team. There is very, very little risk in my approach.

I frankly hope he does start, because I'd much rather have an 11.5 Aguero starting every week than a 12.5 Kane. That 1.0 can make a big difference in my midfield. But for now, I'm more than happy taking the safe option. Highly unlikely to effect my scores dramatically. :)

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Billy Bongo
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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Billy Bongo »

Alli/Aguero and Kane/Sane both 21m pairs, I can't pick one yet

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by DAREEL »

Baerardi wrote:
DAREEL wrote:No disrespect but all this Kun non starting etc is all people trying to convince themselves based on internet talk. No doubt the ones that feel Kaku is better for whatever reason will argue against this

A few pep quotes after the period where kun was dropped and then came back

“It’s the best performance I’ve ever seen from Sergio,”

“I love him – the way he played – the way he was involved.”

My feeling before that he was just waiting to score a goal. Now he’s involved in the game. Not just the defensive part.”

"He made an amazing, amazing performance”


And more recent

"Last season we had Gabriel Jesus out for a long time – I would have like to have seen them (him and Aguero) play more together.”


Doesn't sound like a man who is about to play second fiddle but each to their own. I'm happy if he stays as the best differential in the history of FPL

Ignore him at your peril folks
Didn't you come on here raising the question? Seems like you're trying to convince yourself rather than the other way around. :lol:

It's also not about 'trying to convince myself otherwise' anyway. If Aguero and City show he's their main man I can happily put him in my squad in exchange for one of the other premium strikers in the safe knowledge that the potential points losses in a three/four/five week period will almost certainly be minimal in comparison to the first competition already in my team. There is very, very little risk in my approach.

I frankly hope he does start, because I'd much rather have an 11.5 Aguero starting every week than a 12.5 Kane. That 1.0 can make a big difference in my midfield. But for now, I'm more than happy taking the safe option. Highly unlikely to effect my scores dramatically. :)

I've always fought the kun cause mate? When did I raise it? I've been biggin kun up in FPL since day 1. I'm starting with kun so I don't need to convince myself when I'm already convinced . Pending info on the next few friendlies of cause. If I feel there is a genuine doubt I'll not take the risk


It wasn't aimed at you directly but I see everyone saying he's not going to start, pep doesn't rate him etc which is total nonsense imo. After reading peps quotes and seeing how well he did toward end of last season both with and without kun, taking into account his record speaks for its self I don't get why people still question him that's all

I'll be starting with him. If it comes back to hurt me then so be it , I want Harry as well. I feel forced into Kaku. His ownership is stupidly high. I'd take kun or kane over him any day otherwise. I'm guessing half of lukaku ownership comes from utd fans and casuals who will probably quit in gw4 but it still can't be ignored
Last edited by DAREEL on 23 Jul 2017, 16:03, edited 1 time in total.

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Baerardi
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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Baerardi »

Apologies I thought you were the thread starter but I see it was you as the second poster, my mix up, apologies!

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by DAREEL »

No probs mate. No need to apologise :D

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Billy Bongo
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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Billy Bongo »

No one is saying that in here that I've seen, all I've read are perfectly sound arguements for wait and see on Kane considering first two games are away at Newcastle and first game at Wembley is v Chelsea.

And he's the most expensive player in the game

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Vsz »

DAREEL wrote: 23 Jul 2017, 14:05
Stemania wrote:If he's a regular starter at 11.5m he looks fantastic (assuming he's still on pens), but City's squad is so ridiculous now it's hard to see anyone guaranteed to play all games. Perhaps KDB the most likely(?), but Pep just has so many options now in every attacking role!

I may well start with Kun though, because the first 4 games are CL free and he looks fairly assured of his place till then imo.

That's what I'm doing . In FPL and sun Going to keep a mil in the bank then decide on who makes way in gw 3 when kane is at home to Burnley
Same. Starting with Lukaku, Aguero, an other and 1 mil ITB.

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by carver »

Trouble is you can't have everybody.

Aguero feels like yesterdays man. Kane, Lukaku and Jesus are the future....

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by ZeroRemorse »

I'm really torn between Kane/Coutinho or Aguero/Alli.

If United didn't have another piss easy start to a season, Lukaku would be out the door, especially with Mourinho's garbage grinding football.

I may yet still drop Kak for Kun.

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by DAREEL »

ZeroRemorse wrote: 24 Jul 2017, 12:59 I'm really torn between Kane/Coutinho or Aguero/Alli.

If United didn't have another piss easy start to a season, Lukaku would be out the door, especially with Mourinho's garbage grinding football.

I may yet still drop Kak for Kun.
Me too. Kaku was a joke yesterday. He had one cross in 45 mins. If that's the way they playing then he's out my side regardless of ownership. Kun and kane looking likely

Im.even captaining kun first game

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Mike1989 »

Kane is the best FF striker at the minute. He finished top scorer last year and missed eight games. If he stayed healthy he could have been by far the top points scorer. With the way that Spurs play, I think he's a safe bet for goals and being the top point scoring striker.

Aguero vs Lukaku

I fancy both players to scorer 20 goals this season. The issue Lukaku could face is whether Man Utd are better and more consistent going forwards than last season. But Aguero faces the possibility of rotation. So it's a tough choice between the two, but either way I see 20 goals from both players and around a 200 (or more) points total.

Who do I have?

Currently Lukaku because he should be a nailed on starter week in, week out, with a guaranteed role. Now I do think Aguero will start and have a big role, but it could be shared with Jesus, and rotation is possibly a greater risk. I'm torn between the two.

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Well, I did OK by dropping Aguero last season. But I actually do think the situation has changed a bit.

The main positive is that Pep can now claim to have changed Aguero's game. He did that with Lewandowski the first season he had him - played him out of position, wide, rotated him. Made him "a more all-round player" but at the expense of a reduced goal output. 2nd season he played Lewa centrally again and Lewa's output returned to his Dortmund levels (even slightly better as I recall). But Pep could take the credit. He was now "playing Pep's way".

I think a similar thing may occur with Aguero - the whole thing is following the same 'break them down and build them up again' pattern. Pep is certainly much less ambivalent in his comments about Aguero now and it should also be noted that he could easily have sold him this summer had he really not wanted him. So I actually think Aguero's prospects are better than they were last season (especially after Jesus arrived).

The other side of the coin is the huge rotation threat to all City attackers, no matter who they are. I don't exclude KDB; I don't exclude anyone. Pep is a manic rotator and believes it's good for players and for his team. Bernardo is a terrific player who many seem to be ignoring but I think he'll play plenty of games as an attacking midfielder. Add Jesus, Aguero, KDB, Sané, Silva, Sterling and Gündoğan and that's 8 players competing for at most 5 spots (assuming Pep stays with his 4-1-4-1). If he plays with a back three (and he likely will sometimes) that's even more pressure on selection because Walker and Mendy then come into contention for the wide positions.

I don't think Aguero is much more or less likely than anyone else at City to be rotated this season really. So this issue isn't really a negative for Aguero, it's a potential negative for all City attackers. The trouble is that we will likely see more rotation at a lot of the top clubs this season. Spurs maybe not but Levy doesn't usually make his signings till August because he thinks he can get better deals near the end of the window. There will doubtless be a couple of players coming in there too.

In that context, is Aguero worth 11.5m? If he has penalties, maybe yes. If not, maybe not. Because the general rotation threat at City still reduces his appeal as a captain. At 11.5m he really needs to be a reliable starter every week. That applies to anyone. I think that he's one of a number of premium players where timing will be the key - for instance when there are some injuries that reduce the manager's alternative options.

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Arhaych »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 25 Jul 2017, 13:24 Well, I did OK by dropping Aguero last season. But I actually do think the situation has changed a bit.

The main positive is that Pep can now claim to have changed Aguero's game. He did that with Lewandowski the first season he had him - played him out of position, wide, rotated him. Made him "a more all-round player" but at the expense of a reduced goal output. 2nd season he played Lewa centrally again and Lewa's output returned to his Dortmund levels (even slightly better as I recall). But Pep could take the credit. He was now "playing Pep's way".

I think a similar thing may occur with Aguero - the whole thing is following the same 'break them down and build them up again' pattern. Pep is certainly much less ambivalent in his comments about Aguero now and it should also be noted that he could easily have sold him this summer had he really not wanted him. So I actually think Aguero's prospects are better than they were last season (especially after Jesus arrived).

The other side of the coin is the huge rotation threat to all City attackers, no matter who they are. I don't exclude KDB; I don't exclude anyone. Pep is a manic rotator and believes it's good for players and for his team. Bernardo is a terrific player who many seem to be ignoring but I think he'll play plenty of games as an attacking midfielder. Add Jesus, Aguero, KDB, Sané, Silva, Sterling and Gündoğan and that's 8 players competing for at most 5 spots (assuming Pep stays with his 4-1-4-1). If he plays with a back three (and he likely will sometimes) that's even more pressure on selection because Walker and Mendy then come into contention for the wide positions.

I don't think Aguero is much more or less likely than anyone else at City to be rotated this season really. So this issue isn't really a negative for Aguero, it's a potential negative for all City attackers. The trouble is that we will likely see more rotation at a lot of the top clubs this season. Spurs maybe not but Levy doesn't usually make his signings till August because he thinks he can get better deals near the end of the window. There will doubtless be a couple of players coming in there too.

In that context, is Aguero worth 11.5m? If he has penalties, maybe yes. If not, maybe not. Because the general rotation threat at City still reduces his appeal as a captain. At 11.5m he really needs to be a reliable starter every week. That applies to anyone. I think that he's one of a number of premium players where timing will be the key - for instance when there are some injuries that reduce the manager's alternative options.
Great post - wouldn't disagree with any of that.

I just can't see Aguero being rotated until Champions League group stages. He's in my team for GW1 as it stands, and could well be my captain.

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Zimmerman »

I posted this elsewhere
Zimmerman wrote: 25 Jul 2017, 12:53
Of the 11 games they were both available for:

Jesus 6 starts

Aguero 2 starts (Jesus' first City outing was coming off the bench / Jesus' first game back after injury).

Both 3 starts
It's obviously a small data set but of the 9 games they were both available Aguero started none on his own and Jesus started 6.

Given all the other options they have and his propensity to do things 'his way' it's a fair old gamble to go for Aguero.

Maybe the early fixtures make it a gamble worth taking and his price will facilitate an easy exit strategy.... but he's far from the Fantasy gold he once was

The obvious caveat is that Had Jesus not had 8 weeks off would he have continued at the same rate?

Peps obviously not opposed to resting anyone and everyone when he thinks necessary. We know how delicate Aguero is. Maybe the scientists in his staff weee dictating kid gloves for the man with glass hamstrings?

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by carver »

http://matchday.mancity.com/Mdc/MdcLoader/f911240

Check out the heat maps vs Real Madrid. Go to lineups and select the player

Aguero wide left a lot as well as thorugh the middle.

Jesus active all across the front 3 positions, but also a little deeper at times and less time in the box.
aguero.png
jesus.png
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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by carver »

I'm going for Jesus, just based on last years PPG and he's a bit cheaper, and I already have Kane,Kak

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Sutter Kane »

Billy Bongo wrote: 23 Jul 2017, 15:49 Alli/Aguero and Kane/Sane both 21m pairs, I can't pick one yet

Sent from mobile
Are you closer to a solution BB?

For the season I would say in terms of total potential points (Wembley aside), Kane is ahead of Aguero but Alli is streets ahead of Sane.

To start the season, I'm not sure which option I'd pick.

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Stemania »

carver wrote: 28 Jul 2017, 11:06 Check out the heat maps vs Real Madrid. Go to lineups and select the player

Aguero wide left a lot as well as thorugh the middle.

Jesus active all across the front 3 positions, but also a little deeper at times and less time in the box.
I didn't know the City site offered good quality data like this, cheers. :)

As interesting as the maps are, it's got to be expected that in a 352 the left hand striker is going to be playing more on the left, though the extent of it does look a little extreme on paper. With young Foden being the only support for the right-footed LWB Danilo it seems pretty explainable why Kun had to go out there so much vs Real though compared to Jesus on the other side; on the right KDB was dominating with support from Walker - so Jesus wasn't so required out there. I wouldn't therefore read too much into that friendly, personally, or expect that the extremes of those heat maps would continue in that system generally - it was also vs a top team in Real Madrid after all!

The one thing I would agree on about the 352 is that Kun doesn't really seem to me to be a sure fire better pick than Jesus; you're basically paying an extra 1m for penalties (assuming Kun still has them) and the hope that Kun is the better finisher. So if Pep persists with the 352 I'm inclined to think that Kun might not quite be worth it, but even then Jesus might be playing a bit too much as a link striker?

4atb
When it's one up front though, it looks a much different story. Actually, I was just looking into the data myself to see how Kun fared last year overall, so here's a splurge. :oops: The info from last year that I've seen actually suggest that Aguero played pretty much exactly the same role in the one striker setup as he did with Pellegrini and he generally threatened goal to the same extent; even if the popular perception might be that he had to do a lot of moving around wide to his detriment etc. Certainly his average position maps are just as central in both years and his pass location maps seem to show no noticeable difference in the position of his passes (they weren't concentrated any wider than they were before for example) - suggesting he didn't play significantly more on the left (or right) than previously at all - his shots were just as central as before too.

Image
(Borrowed from FFS)

Most of his key attacking and involvement stats are noticeably extremely similar (some pretty much identical) to the previous season with Pellegrini:

Stat per game (2015/16, 2016/17)
Total Shots (4.0, 4.5)
In Box (3.2, 3.2)
On Target (1.7, 1.6)
Big Chances (0.9, 0.9)
Touches (42.0, 42.7)
Final 3rd Tchs (29.3, 27.1)
Passes Received (28, 27)
Pss Rec Fnl 3rd (18.6, 16.1)
Passes Given (24.2, 24.9)
Pass Success (84.7%, 82.3%)
Dribbles (4.7, 4.4)
Crosses (0.7, 0.5)
Chances Created (0.9, 1.0)

The only downers of note from what I saw, was that he was slightly under last year on

Touches in Box (7.5, 6.7)
Shot Accuracy (41.2%, 36.7%)
Succ Pass Fnl 3rd (13.4, 10.8)

So he got in the box slightly less (it's tough to look at the pass map and say confidently one year was deeper than the other, but it seemed he was a little) - the shot accuracy is a concern. There's little else in the stats to suggest location of the shots and the quality of them were poorer, so maybe he just 'wasn't quite himself' due to all the sendings off/being dropped for Jesus unhappiness? Or maybe the shot data (without the position of defenders etc) is too crass to be able to spot anything from it and say for sure that the chances were of roughly equal quality. Maybe he was more tired by the time he got to shoot? In terms of the working more for the team idea his tackling/recovery stats didn't actually improve though; if anything you could argue they were worse overall than under Pellegrini:

Interceptions (0.2, 0.1)
Recoveries (3.0, 2.4)
Tackles (1.1, 1.2)

It could be that the difference in his role was more in terms of trying to help City keep the ball (explaining being perceived as being slightly deeper, certainly the reduced TiB stat) rather than working more for the team in general. That's not necessarily a bad thing - if City were able to hold the ball more that would have fed back in to the team creating more chances generally. There does seem to be noticeable evidence in the ball retention (which is up under Pep):

Dispossessed (3.4, 2.2)
Tackled (5.4, 3.6)

But this didn't really show up in the dribbing stats (though there is a slight drop there) or the passing accuracy (where it actually dropped under Pep!), so perhaps he simply kept himself slightly deeper and further from the CBs at times, whereas the helping to keep possession thing might not be quite right.

The fact that his shooting stats on paper did not suffer suggests at least that any perceived change of role last season shouldn't have been much of a worry, unless his general shot accuracy has gotten worse overnight that is; even if he wasn't getting in the box as often, he was still getting the same rate of total shots off from in the box, on target and the same ratio of them 'big chances'. So if he was getting a smaller piece of the pie, he was getting a smaller piece of a bigger pie, which seemed to roughly even out (excepting for the slight shooting accuracy drop) :)

It's also probably worth noting that some of the above stats also includes the few games Kun played alongside Jesus as a two at the end of the season. So, I think there's a lot of optimism to be had about Aguero at 11.5 if the regular formation is 4atb with one main striker - certainly at the start of the reason when rotation is unlikely. Though, of course, his last season with Pellegrini wasn't his best. :D


The problems seem to be that in the 352 that Pep could easily play instead Kun is naturally going to be less involved as the spearhead making Jesus arguably a nicer option, and that now Jesus is here Pep has a genuine option to rest Kun around busy schedules. There I think carver's concerns could be well-founded. :?

Anyone (who takes credence from stats and doesn't vehemently ignore the rambling over-analysis of the geeky statmongers) agree/disagree/think it's a unfair assessment of the data? :mrgreen:

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Archy »

I'm happy if he stays as the best differential in the history of FPL

That was surely new boy Harry Kane instead of highly owned Diego Costa from October 2014?

(Literally) half the price + double the goals + ginormous ownership differential.

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Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by DAREEL »

carver wrote: 28 Jul 2017, 11:06 http://matchday.mancity.com/Mdc/MdcLoader/f911240

Check out the heat maps vs Real Madrid. Go to lineups and select the player

Aguero wide left a lot as well as thorugh the middle.

Jesus active all across the front 3 positions, but also a little deeper at times and less time in the box.

aguero.png

jesus.png
Very useful. Thanks

Gambit
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3427
Joined: 02 Nov 2014, 16:36

Re: Why no love for Aguero?

Post by Gambit »

Jesus as the lone striker v Spurs:

Ederson, Walker, Danilo, Kompany (c), Stones, Otamendi, Sterling, KDB, Silva, Fernandinho, Jesus

playing really well, KDB running the show so far

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