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532 is it capable of working successfully?

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CYCLOPS
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532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by CYCLOPS »

Sorry if already discussed but I was wondering if a 532 team could work for the first few gameweeks before wildcarding during the international break?

I have just started drafting some teams together & with the use of more defenders as attacking wingbacks in teams now I was wondering what other people thought?

I know 532 is not normally used but I am thinking about it to start with.

I have come up with this team to start, Thx

~~~~~~~~~~~~~Foster~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Monreal Cédric Trippier Milner Lindelöf
~~~~~~~Alli Coutinho Willian~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~Kane Lukaku~~~~~~~~~~~

~~Myhill Loftus-Cheek Carroll Crouch~~
Last edited by CYCLOPS on 16 Jul 2017, 23:27, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Football Hero »

It can't hurt that much if you initially just use it for the first few weeks and then you can wildcard to any set of players and formations that seems better after you have a few weeks of info.

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Canikickit »

Doesn't say that much but only 12 games produced a clean sheet in the first 3 game weeks last season

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Rich2086 »

Theres an article on FFS about Formations i didnt read the entire thing but it actually said statistically 3-4-3 was one of the worst and 5 at the back formations would give you more point per week.

Hope im allowed to post it without getting in trouble

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2 ... formation/

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by MoSe »

Rich2086 wrote:Theres an article on FFS about Formations i didnt read the entire thing but it actually said statistically 3-4-3 was one of the worst and 5 at the back formations would give you more point per week.
Thanks, that's interesting.
It might not be statistically sound, but I like the approach, do the reasonable best with what you know and you can afford to tackle. He knows it and explains it well in the caveats.
You should have got to its conclusion tho
CONCLUSION

I don’t think that the formation is a key differentiator, success is more dependent on player selection and timing, transferring in players as they are about to hit form, getting lucky with captaincy and the making good bench rotation decisions.

What I’m taking from this analysis is that you can really use any formation you like the look of and still be successful, as long as you utilise your bench correctly.

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Ruth_NZ »

532 is inefficient. 442 is much better really. But 442 is much weaker when there's no starting striker at 5.0 or less available (ideally 4.5). And there currently isn't one.

352 is very iffy for the same reasons. The most feasible starting structures this season are 343 and 433 as far as I can see. I tend to prefer 433 myself because it requires less compromises.

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by blahblah »

Canikickit wrote:Doesn't say that much but only 12 games produced a clean sheet in the first 3 game weeks last season
That sort of thing lasted for quite a few GW's?

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Kuchi »

It is but I don't think it is optimal. Was running https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/1576/history as a side project and whilst I think it could get top 10k I don't think it can get too much more. Main team finished in the top 500 and was a hell of a lot easier to adapt/make strong changes.

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Cars and Mané »

I think you have to start with the supposition that 3-4-3 is best and then try to argue why a change would be better.

For me, I am likely going 4-3-3 before the early wildcard for a number of reasons.

I think the Southampton defence (I've tripled up including Forster) and Lindelof are clear bargains with those fixtures. And Trippier will prove to be great value if he keeps his position.

At the outset I don't think any of the super premium mids are ownable so don't need to keep a slot open for them. Hazard is injured, I have no interest in KDB, and we don't know where Sanchez will be (if at Arsenal then I don't like their fixtures anyway). I also don't think there are many attractive cheap midfielders. So I'm happy that keeping one slot open for a 9-9.5 mid and two 7-8 mids provides enough flexibility.

Two premium strikers seems a must. I also want to have a third striker spot in case one emerges. Currently got Defoe but he can easily be downgraded to anyone.

So I think for flexibility and attractive defensive options, 4-3-3 is good to start with. However, once the window shuts and Hazard is fit then we may need to keep a slot open for a super premium mid. This in my view would potentially necessitate going 3-4-3 again. Unless one of the premium defenders looks really attractive; Milner may fall into that bucket for me. I think having five defenders long term just comprises too much on flexibility as you'd have to lose one or two of those slots I outlined. It could be suitable to start the season but I'd rather be able to keep Willian and jump on Ramsey if he hits the ground running, for example. Or similarly if Gayle explodes early on.

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by belated »

The maths analysis is woefully poor. The PPG of premium strikers and midfielders are averages across players that are and are not good value. The spread of this figure is far greater for these players than the premium defenders. With defenders who play games largely all scoring points when a CS is completed, there is naturally less variation in their individual point scoring. At the same time some high-priced midfielders and strikers will score huge figures while others will not playing the same amount of time for the same teams. Using average scores which include both sets of players (and the disproportionate number of premium strikers that spent a large proportion of last season injured) means that the outcome is having a defence-heavy team.

I think the fact that nobody at the top used that strategy is pretty clear evidence that that strategy does not yield max scores. If it did, then those people who deployed that strategy would at least be in the mix.

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Beerfuelledman »

Im probably going to get lambasted for this view but - I dont see why it cant work IF there are sufficient players to make it work.

In the STC thread, Mav3rick & Stemania (hopefully they wont mind me using their example) both proffered a price structure for their 343. The defence was 5.5 5.5 & 3 x 4.5 rotating.

In a 343 then you have a say 6.5m striker vs a 6.5m Defender in a 343 v 442 debate. There are 4 6.0-6.5 strikers scoring 108-130 pts last term and 4 6.5 defs scoring 139 - 178 pts last term.Clearly then if you can choose correctly, the DEF over a STR COULD be an option.

In furtherance then, can another of these 4 6.5 DEFS outscore a 6.5 MID in a 532? Again we seem to be looking at those priced MIDS scoring 118 - 133pts and the correctly chosen 6.5 DEF could outscore them.

SO 532 could be a great option. I think ultimately it will be the players in form (i.e. Mahrez at 5.5m 2yrs ago) that dictate the necessary formation?

(Stands back and waits for the angry mob).

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by asm_fanz »

Beerfuelledman wrote: SO 532 could be a great option. I think ultimately it will be the players in form (i.e. Mahrez at 5.5m 2yrs ago) that dictate the necessary formation?
I think this is key.
The success of a FPL squad relies more on personnel than formation. If the players picked are the right ones, it doesn't matter much in which formation the team is set up.
However, it just so happens that every year we have a few mids & strikers in the 5.0m to 7.0m range that emerge and considerably outperform the defenders in the same price range, we thus inevitably end up playing we the maximum number of attacking players, thus the 3-4-3 or 3-5-2.

Is it okay to start the season with an unpopular formation such as 5-3-2? I guess so, if you have the right players you could actually differentiate yourself from the other managers. The problem with that is that the structure of your team is so defence-heavy that it will decrease your ability to jump on the "bargain" mids and striker that emerge after a few games without taking hits and sometimes the use of the wildcard.

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by blahblah »

Beerfuelledman wrote:I dont see why it cant work IF there are sufficient players to make it work.
This is your get out :wink:

I'd toss in Prices. I haven't looked yet, but it seems that a reasonable 3 player Defence is going to cost at least 1m more than last year, which has to be found from somewhere - most likely the midfield. Going 2 up top is dodgy, imho, due to the cost without a regular 2 point For available at 4.5m(ish), which is very unlikely to happen.

Last season saw a rise in the 6m (ish) defender who is considered as a Mid ie Attacking Points were the thing, not the CS's (with Baines, Coleman, Valencia, a couple of WBA bods etc getting mentions). If the cash gets tight, then this argument will become more interesting, and could well lead to a 5-2-3, with 3 x 4.5m Mids on the Bench. In short: if you go 4-3-3, and then see the advantage of a 5.5-6m defender as better than a Mid, then 5-2-3 has a certain inevitability?

That said are the points actually there? All this ave PpG by position is pants, as we aren't allowed enough players for an average to be relevant and the point is to pick the higher performers.

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Beerfuelledman »

Yes, At the minute I cant help but think Azpilicueta, Cahill, Walker, Milner, Valencia, Rose are all potentially better options than Dwight Gayle, Fat Drake, Salomen Rondon, Andre Gray and maybe even Charlie Austin.

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Ruth_NZ »

blahblah wrote:In short: if you go 4-3-3, and then see the advantage of a 5.5-6m defender as better than a Mid, then 5-2-3 has a certain inevitability?
That's what I meant by inefficient. 532/523 cuts defender rotation out of the equation. Lose that and you lose some efficiency.

OK, it could be that you rotate some mids instead but if they are 4.5m they are going to be very unpredictable. These won't be prolific scorers/assisters. Whereas a 4.5m defender only needs his team to get a CS to manage 6 points. Pick a decent rotation and you should be able to get something like a 35% CS chance every week from rotating. You won't get close to a 35% goal/assist chance from a 4.5m midfielder, even in an 'easy' fixture.

I just don't like to have too much 'dead' money' and the only way to make your £18m bench budget work for you is to use some rotation.

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by blahblah »

Ruth_NZ wrote:
blahblah wrote:In short: if you go 4-3-3, and then see the advantage of a 5.5-6m defender as better than a Mid, then 5-2-3 has a certain inevitability?
That's what I meant by inefficient. 532/523 cuts defender rotation out of the equation. Lose that and you lose some efficiency.

OK, it could be that you rotate some mids instead but if they are 4.5m they are going to be very unpredictable. These won't be prolific scorers/assisters. Whereas a 4.5m defender only needs his team to get a CS to manage 6 points. Pick a decent rotation and you should be able to get something like a 35% CS chance every week from rotating. You won't get close to a 35% goal/assist chance from a 4.5m midfielder, even in an 'easy' fixture.

I just don't like to have too much 'dead' money' and the only way to make your £18m bench budget work for you is to use some rotation.
Indeed, it's the "advantage" that is the issue. My guess is that the more Clubs that play 3-4-3, the more attractive (or less unattractive) 5-2-3 becomes, as we get 6m(ish) mids, with CS points...

Was it you who posted something really interesting about more Cash at the back?

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Cliffard »

The conclusion I've come to (as have others): 5-3-2 is not flexible enough, as you'll very likely want to jump on underpriced fwd/mid bandwagons early. There are always some of those, even if we don't see it now. Currently contemplating 4-3-3 ahead of a likely early WC, but even this can feel a bit inflexible.

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by blahblah »

Cliffard wrote:The conclusion I've come to (as have others): 5-3-2 is not flexible enough, as you'll very likely want to jump on underpriced fwd/mid bandwagons early. There are always some of those, even if we don't see it now. Currently contemplating 4-3-3 ahead of a likely early WC, but even this can feel a bit inflexible.
Despite the title of the Thread, I thought 5-3-2 has been dumped in favour of the 5-2-3 Case\Argument.... (Unless there is a 4.5m regular 2 point Forward.)

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Cliffard »

blahblah wrote:
Cliffard wrote:The conclusion I've come to (as have others): 5-3-2 is not flexible enough, as you'll very likely want to jump on underpriced fwd/mid bandwagons early. There are always some of those, even if we don't see it now. Currently contemplating 4-3-3 ahead of a likely early WC, but even this can feel a bit inflexible.
Despite the title of the Thread, I thought 5-3-2 has been dumped in favour of the 5-2-3 Case\Argument.... (Unless there is a 4.5m regular 2 point Forward.)
I made a really sexy 5-3-2 (pic), but I probably won't dare to start with it. Makes it hard to jump on the <8.5 fwds and <7.5 mids who will likely present themselves.
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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by I Am Ville »

Certainly thinking a more defensive unit to start with this season as the premium mids are not appealing.
I am too scared to leave out Kane. May go Mane over Ali.

Foster, Myhill
Alonso, Lindelof, Cedric, Trippier (Mariappa)
Ali, Willian, Zaha (Chabalaboaoaahaloahaoloah) (RLC)
Kane, Lukaku, Defoe

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Football Hero »

Ruth_NZ wrote:
blahblah wrote:In short: if you go 4-3-3, and then see the advantage of a 5.5-6m defender as better than a Mid, then 5-2-3 has a certain inevitability?
That's what I meant by inefficient. 532/523 cuts defender rotation out of the equation. Lose that and you lose some efficiency.

OK, it could be that you rotate some mids instead but if they are 4.5m they are going to be very unpredictable. These won't be prolific scorers/assisters. Whereas a 4.5m defender only needs his team to get a CS to manage 6 points. Pick a decent rotation and you should be able to get something like a 35% CS chance every week from rotating. You won't get close to a 35% goal/assist chance from a 4.5m midfielder, even in an 'easy' fixture.

I just don't like to have too much 'dead' money' and the only way to make your £18m bench budget work for you is to use some rotation.
This.

In general, defender rotations are so much more viable than rotating a couple of cheap midfielders or a cheap midfielder and a cheap striker.

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Football Hero »

Cliffard wrote:
blahblah wrote:
Cliffard wrote:The conclusion I've come to (as have others): 5-3-2 is not flexible enough, as you'll very likely want to jump on underpriced fwd/mid bandwagons early. There are always some of those, even if we don't see it now. Currently contemplating 4-3-3 ahead of a likely early WC, but even this can feel a bit inflexible.
Despite the title of the Thread, I thought 5-3-2 has been dumped in favour of the 5-2-3 Case\Argument.... (Unless there is a 4.5m regular 2 point Forward.)
I made a really sexy 5-3-2 (pic), but I probably won't dare to start with it. Makes it hard to jump on the <8.5 fwds and <7.5 mids who will likely present themselves.
I don't see a massive problem with starting in GW1 with a 5-3-2 though, since most managers will be using their first wildcard by GW5 or GW6 anyway, regardless of their starting formation, so an early wildcard would allow you to sort out any potential formation issues that you aren't happy with.

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by blahblah »

Football Hero wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote:
blahblah wrote:In short: if you go 4-3-3, and then see the advantage of a 5.5-6m defender as better than a Mid, then 5-2-3 has a certain inevitability?
That's what I meant by inefficient. 532/523 cuts defender rotation out of the equation. Lose that and you lose some efficiency.

OK, it could be that you rotate some mids instead but if they are 4.5m they are going to be very unpredictable. These won't be prolific scorers/assisters. Whereas a 4.5m defender only needs his team to get a CS to manage 6 points. Pick a decent rotation and you should be able to get something like a 35% CS chance every week from rotating. You won't get close to a 35% goal/assist chance from a 4.5m midfielder, even in an 'easy' fixture.

I just don't like to have too much 'dead' money' and the only way to make your £18m bench budget work for you is to use some rotation.
This.

In general, defender rotations are so much more viable than rotating a couple of cheap midfielders or a cheap midfielder and a cheap striker.
I am playing Devil's Advocate here, btw; and the key bit above is "and then see the advantage".

I assumed 3 Main\Big\Expensive Forwards, tbh and 13.5-14m of outfield Bench players, but I dopubt that I'll do it (as a regular formation, as I would have a cheapie or two in Defence to rotate, but if whatever Cashley has called the Skunk Stadium becomes some form of Fortress, it may be less uninteresting ie doing it with 1 or 2 Cheaper Defenders means more cash on the Pitch.

The other BIG downer on this is the (ALMOST) complete absence of CS's at the start of last season.

At the moment nearly all the Clubs have too many unkowns for me to guess at a Squad, and it is too sunny (outside the far SW) to motivate me.

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Stemania »

Long term, generally speaking the more defenders you have in your starting formation the worse value your bench (and therefore squad) is. As mentioned above, cheap defenders are far more useful than cheap attackers as they can rotate in for easy fixtures and 'act' as a more expensive player for that week. For sure this is one of the many reasons 3atb has long dominated. I don't think 5atb is anywhere near yet, but, while still very far off, for various reasons it probably is 'closer' than it ever has been if that makes sense. :)

[One reason for the formation squeeze has been FPL's improvement in their pricing over the last 5 years or so (the phasing out of 4m starting defenders, cheap strikers and 5m mids hiked, etc). Alongside the shrinking pool of strikers, this has slowly made other formations challenge for spells under the right circumstances (352 was very popular in the second half of last season for example). It's probably fair to say that 343 and 352 are roughly speaking the same system nowadays. Which is best will likely depend on the quality of the base price attacking sub and whether there is a real standout in the 6m or so group for either mid or attack, in which case they obviously take priority - at the very least we want someone who will play and get appearance points as that 4.5m mid/attacker for the occasion they are needed.

Traditionally the strength of the 4.5m mids and the excellent value of the 5-6m striker band, in particular, has heavily favoured 343 over 352, but FPL eventually cottoned on and strikers are priced much harsher nowadays (newly promoted strikers at 6-6.5m for example, when a few years back it would have been 0.5-1m cheaper for a starter for sure). This year the midfield 4.5m mids appear to absolutely trounce the 4.5 strikers again (there are no base price strikers who are likely to start?) so at the moment a 5-man-midfield looks pretty dead to me again - for the same reason 442 seems unlikely to work, as usual. Personally, I also think 352 really struggles this year in the landscape of premium strikers, good looking picks at 9.5m and 6-7m in midfield, but a gap in in the 352-friendly 8-8.5m band; I'm yet to come up with a draft with two strikers anyway.]


In terms of viable formations with more than 3atb, 433 does look the most likely to be possible this year (and seems to be the one a number of posters are looking at). The way I see it there are two types of 433 (or rather, two reasons for attempting it):

1) A disguised 343 - Simply to play a premium defender instead of a similarly priced mid; the drafts I've seen in practice this year mostly seem to be of this type, essentially equivalent to the 343, just swapping a circa 6.5m mid for a circa 6.5m defender (bfm even labelled his effort as "The Alonso 343 in a 433").

2) One more high end player - pooling resources into one extra big hitter, losing one of the other first eleven players as a result, but covering it with a defender/thinner rotation. Basically, cheaper defenders (4.5m to 5m) are much better than equivalent mids, so if the only place we can find to steal money from to squeeze in an extra premium player (perhaps a third top striker this year) turns out to be our midprice 6-7m mid then it makes a lot of sense to run with a a 5m defender rather than a 5m midfielder in a starting eleven, making a 433.

Or a mixture of both. In both cases, the 433 will be less efficient than the 343 though (as you still generally lose a 'useful' rotating defender for another 4.5m mid) so I think you need to gain something from making the change.

In the first case, that extra expensive defender needs to be a decent margin better than the equivalent mid for it to pay off as a result. Now we're in the Milner/Alonso age perhaps it's indeed viable, but I do like that 6-7m midfielder bracket too (and besides, I'm not completely convinced it's that different to the Baines, Ivanovic/Terry ages for example)! The problem I find premium defenders are always going to have is that there are usually a few 5-5.5m defenders who are excellent value, so it's a very tempting wad to save in early drafts. In the hunt for early cash I always seem to end up pulling that 1-1.5m back out in mine and that naturally channels back to a 343.

In the second case, that extra premium essentially needs to make up for two players (and the defence in particular could be strained); it's tough for an 'extra' premium to do this as they are not generally good value for money - the more captaincy options you have the worse value all your premiums are. I'm not overly convinced by the 5m defenders right now (except Cedric at the start), and that's a really useful pricepoint here. Though actually, I nearly did go with this type of 433 myself at the start of last season to try to fit in a Kun/Costa/Lukaku/Hazard starting lineup, but eventually converged on the status quo in terms of value spread for the same reasons. :)

In terms of what formation to start with, despite all these ramblings I'm not sure it matters too much if an early wildcard is planned tbh (as there isn't time for the value of the defensive rotation to make it's mark). :lol:

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by triggerlips »

5 2 3 might make more sense. With 3x 4.5 mids on bench. This season having Three pricey strikers could be good, also some of the 4.5 mids have potential this season so you may end up with playable players for free. If Say One of those 4.5 mids became fantasy worthy you could put one in when one of the defenders had a really poor fixture.

Another factor is that it would be a lot of fun to manage. 3-4-3 just ends up a template yawn with all sides looking the same. Playing 5-2-3 would make a refreshing change and give you access to a whole group of players that most 343 teams are forced to avoid, ie he pricey defenders

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Hotstepper »

I can see the general attraction in loading up 4 or 5 wingbacks, but I'm wary of this season starting like last and clean sheets not forthcoming.

Was last season a one off or does anyone have a feel for whether it's a fairly common opening for teams to be going out to attack in the first month or two?

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Sutter Kane »

I think at the start of the season, there are often new faces in the backline/GK of teams so they don't have a long term understanding. Also some teams play in a different way / tactic from season to season (eg Chelsea last season, Leicester the season before) and it can take some time to figure out those teams. So I'd say that's why CSs are hard to come by. The big boys seem to get on fine though at any point in the season.

I don't like 5 at the back because I want the flexibility to be able to jump on the midfield bargains whilst still keeping the likes of Alli/etc in my squad. Imagine not getting the season's 5.5mn Mahrez because of squad structure. Points come consistently from defenders but explode from attackers/mids. 4 at the back is as far as I'd go.
This also applies to attackers too. In a 5 at the back, often the strikers are heavy hitters with heavy price tags. Who goes when Austin/Sandro/etc start netting hatties?

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by blahblah »

I seem to remember last season, someone went back a few seasons, and it was a bit worse re CS's, but not that much.

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Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by Mav3rick »

I agree with triggerlips that a 523 is more likely to succeed that a 532, but the reasons that I don't think it will work overall have been covered above, the primary issues being:

1) Lack of value extraction from rotation
2) Lack of flexibility in bandwagon jumping
3) A general feeling that the computations that say 5 at the back is the best way to play statistically are not reflecting the actual way in which an FPL team accrues points.

triggerlips
Kevin and Perry
Posts: 20
Joined: 17 Aug 2010, 06:36

Re: 532 is it capable of working successfully?

Post by triggerlips »

Is it necessary to jump on these bandwagons? Very few achieve much and just burn transfers.
For every Mahrez there are Ten Gungaguys or whatever his name is.
Maybe better to use those transfers to keep the defence in top shape

One advantage of having Five quality attackers is they do not need changing. Rarely anyway,
THe likes of Alli can just stay there while all the transfers are concentrated in defence.
Compare with 3 5 2 which has lots of 6M midfield types, they need changing all the time as they not good enough to set and forget

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