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CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

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streety
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Post by streety »

Just looking at how the price rise works. Is it that once the Target % goes above 100% that they should increase in value? Just wondering as Jese is now at 390%. What am I looking at to see who is going to rise #confused

The Real Slim Shady
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Post by The Real Slim Shady »

CtC is busted and has been for a long time now.

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Talkie Toaster
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Post by Talkie Toaster »

While not much use as a predictor, there is still useful info on CtC.
You can get daily NTI/NTO figures here and by clicking on a player's name you get a daily historical log of all price changes, status changes and ownership for that player.
I always use the price changes page as a convenient summary of all the overnight risers and fallers as well.

For predictions though you're better off with fplStatistics as Mav3rick mentioned earlier in the thread.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Post by Mav3rick »

As noted in the rounded keeper, there were price drops for Hernandez and Davies last night which seems to indicate that the unflagging, at least of a yellow flag, no longer resets NTI/NTO.

Because of the way that flags tend to generate NTOs, that does mean that when FPL/FFS flag players with tenuous injuries, that price drops on those players could be more frequent that in previous years.

We should keep an eye on this behaviour before we update the rules in the OPs, so if you own any recently unflagged players who drop in price, please let us know here.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Post by Markman »

Mustafi got reset when his flag was cleared from yellow this week. Following from the above, I am left somewhat confused if anybody is able to explain?

Also, I'm at a bit of a loss as to why Morata's price hasn't collapsed over the last 2-3 weeks, with somewhere around 1 million transfers out.

Goooo Rickie
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Post by Goooo Rickie »

The price rises and drops are not making sense.

Can someome please explain how Harry Kane's price has dropped from 12.9 to 12.8 with over 100k transfers in and only 10k out??

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blahblah
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Post by blahblah »

Kane had loads of Outs before the GW was (re)set then a load of In's after, but nowhere near close to the Outs.....


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blahblah
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Post by blahblah »

Yep the target NTI\O are reset when the GW starts, also you may be getting confused with the GW NTI\O on the FPL site, which should be zeroed when the GW is set....

Kane's drop was predicted on fplstats etc, or so my aged memory believes.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Post by Mav3rick »

Tosun's price collapse over the past week or so has been pretty major - 0.4 lost now.

The danger of holding a player owned by an active majority who are in selling mode.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Post by MoSe »

Doucouré and Abraham changed price on Feb 07, and CTC Changes doesn't report it http://crackthecode.fiso.co.uk/blog/price-changes/
That's odd, it was the one thing I still used CTC for, as more reliable than the other 2 sites, it never skipped one change, while the other two sites might... :?

upon further review and refresh, even the main Risers/Fallers page keeps saying "Updated: 6 Feb - 17:00"
so maybe CTC is actually frozen since yesterday afternoon

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RomynPG
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Post by RomynPG »

Does anyone know the current state of Crack the Code?

Is it an active resource or pretty much dead but useful faq info?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Post by posouth »

Wondering the same thing as above!

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Post by Mav3rick »

I think it would be fairer to get a final word from Rob, at least in terms of the potential future development of CTC, but without some enhancement (which by my understanding is non-trivial) I'm afraid that CTC can't really be considered a reliable predictor of price changes.

It does collect data that other price change sites don't and such it can be a useful tool for analysing trends or looking at historical events, so as a retrospective tool it still has a place in the FPL landscape

Something that is also still incredibly useful and still valid (as far as we know) is the general list of price change rules that formed the original CTC algorithm, and which have been kept up to date as best as we can (and contained accurate rules so far as we know up to and including last season).

Unless Rob indicates that any new developments are possible in CTC, then as an FPL manager, CTC is one tool to use when analysing FPL trends, but unfortunately it can't be recommended for day-to-day decision making on pending price changes.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Post by Stemania »

Yup. :(

As for this thread, in order to reduce the burden of stickies now we have the link in the resources thread, perhaps it would be a good idea to recycle the excellent first four posts and use them as the basis for each year's (usually separate) "Price Changes" thread.

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Talkie Toaster
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Post by Talkie Toaster »

This would make sense to me. As CTC is now more of a data bank than a prediction resource the rules and strategies will probably be more useful and relevant at the start of each season's Price Changes threads than on here.

It might be worth adding a few notes about what CTC is still useful for on there though, as the daily risers and fallers info isn't on the main CTC screen and it's not obvious that you can get historical data on price, status and ownership changes for individual players by clicking on a player's name.

Actually, if you look at the price changes screen now, it looks like CTC picked up all the new player prices in the early hours of the morning before fpl launched. That'll most likely be the only time this season that it gets a prediction right, and it predicted all of the players, and we all missed it! :lol:

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