Cheap defender rotation

[Mav3rick]

The rather interesting blog Mathematically Safe have posted up their yearly look at potential 3-way cheap defensive rotations. Obviously it's difficult to make many decisions when we don't know the prices of defenders yet, but the fixture list being available does at least give a guide to likely rotations.

Up to the last season or two I have been a big fan of defensive rotations to save cash and boost points, but the way defenders have been priced of late has really taken the sting out of that strategy. This year it will come down to price again (especially if there are any decent looking 4.0s or 5.0s) but the rotations that have been identified for the likely cheaper defences are hinged really around Swansea, Bournemouth or Palace with blanks filled in by other clubs like Newcastle, Leicester, Stoke, Watford and Huddersfield.

In fact, of the 6 "best" rotations 4 of them have two from Swansea, Bournemouth or Palace involved (and all have at least one) so it's looking like a cheap defence will rely on those clubs.

For anyone that plans an early wildcard, Burnley come into the options, with a few "strong" combinations for the first 6 GWs.

Here's the article in full.

[dino1980]

Thanks for posting this Mav. I'd been eyeing up a Burnley defender as part of 3-way rotation due to their favourable home fixtures at the start of the season. In truth, I'd actually been considering a Burnley triple up if Heaton + Burnley no 2 = 9m. I don't see myself wanting any Burnley mids/attackers that's for sure.

Given their opening dozen or so fixtures it'll be very interesting to see what Southampton's defensive assets are priced at. Forster at 5.0 is going to be mighty tempting and I can see myself falling into the Soares vortex again. If Bertrand leaves and Targett is the first choice left back he'll be a bargain.

Whilst the rise of wing-backs makes spending a bit more than 'normal' in defence in a 3-4-3/3-5-2 shape seem desirable, with a 100m bank and plenty of exicting attacking options, I'm almost certain that my defensive spend will fall within 23.5m-25m bracket and be no different than any other season.

[Stemania]

It's interesting how heavily Bournemouth figure, shame really as I never really fancy them defensively (unless their FB goes through an attacking spell or is on pens).

I think Palace will be an important team to judge correctly now De Boer is on board, especially as he's generally seen as a good defensive coach.

I'll probably only consider the first 6-8 weeks or so when eventually picking my team (since the early wildcard is pretty inevitable) and I imagine I'll try to priorities the defenses I like more than trying to squeeze out that 5th home game in the first 6 of rotation (rather than just 4 home games). Excepting that if Southampton get those early 4 home games in 6 they'll be fairly irresistible - we may even be able to manage a good 3 into 2, which would open up the possibility somewhat! Like dino, if Cedric comes in at 4.5m I expect to be powerless to resist that trap....again.

All depends on pricing, obviously. Rotation could yet turn out to be fairly pointless early on, or pretty mandatory.

[dino1980]

Bournemouth should hopefully be better this season now they've signed a decent keeper.

I can't see Cedric being priced at 4.5 but even at 5.0 he's going to hard to resist for me - obviously, this is all dependant on the defensive pricing as a whole.

[Stemania]

I can't see Cedric being priced at 4.5 but even at 5.0 he's going to hard to resist for me - obviously, this is all dependant on the defensive pricing as a whole.

Yeah, I believe you will be proved correct on that. Just checking, was 5m last year after 86 points in 1965 minutes, so it would be amazing if he wasn't 5m again after 102 points from 2515 mins.

[SFC_Fan]

Bournemouth and Newcastle - depends if Begovic is 4.5

Burnley, Stoke, WBA - slim chance that all three will have a CRD at 4.5 but is be happy with 2 4.5s and a 5 there I think.

That then allows for a 6.0 (Bailly?) And a 5.5 (VvD, Bertrand, cedric) and your defence and keepers come to 34.5 leaving 65.5 for the rest. Which is pretty well balanced.

Knowing you've got 5 solid defenders means you can go base price for your 8th attackers so essentially you're left with 61m for 7.

This is the way in going to to early doors. I don't mind doubling up on defenders early doors but id rather spread the risk and 3 from the same team in my initial squad is a no go. An early bandwagon could force you to -4.

[SFC_Fan]

I've got high hopes for Cedric with our new manager and an emphasis on attack, he got into so many good positions last season and his crossing was great, we just didn't commit men forward to get on the end of things.

5.0 in a more expensive team he could be a great pick. Could easily add 25 points on last season's total.

[Mav3rick]

PvA is one I'm keeping an eye on too. If he's priced at 5.0 and plays regularly, even if not as a wingback, that would be interesting. I probably wouldn't want to use rotation with players at that price though, so it depends on the prices of wingbacks.

How long is Coleman out for? I'd love him as my primary defensive asset, but I assume he's out a while still.

[S_sutton87]

I think Brady could be a good option he will be on free kicks as well

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[Tall Paul]

I think Brady could be a good option he will be on free kicks as well

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Not a defender though.

[S_sutton87]

I think Brady could be a good option he will be on free kicks as well

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Not a defender though.

Thought he might be on here as he is classed as a defender on the sun dream team

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[Tall Paul]

I think Brady could be a good option he will be on free kicks as well

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Not a defender though.

Thought he might be on here as he is classed as a defender on the sun dream team

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Fair enough, didn't know that. He was a midfielder on FPL last season and I would expect him to be one this season as well.

Great option in the Sun game though.

[S_sutton87]

I think Brady could be a good option he will be on free kicks as well

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Not a defender though.

Thought he might be on here as he is classed as a defender on the sun dream team

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Fair enough, didn't know that. He was a midfielder on FPL last season and I would expect him to be one this season as well.

Great option in the Sun game though.

As long as they don't change it before they release the official player list lol

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[MoSe]

Not that he'd be a target, but Re: FPL position reclassifications, I wonder whether they'll shift Milner from M to D too, as they did with Brunt

[Vsz]

Not that he'd be a target, but Re: FPL position reclassifications, I wonder whether they'll shift Milner from M to D too, as they did with Brunt

I will be all over him if that happens and Liv don't sign a new LB.

[Billy Bongo]

Not that he'd be a target, but Re: FPL position reclassifications, I wonder whether they'll shift Milner from M to D too, as they did with Brunt

I will be all over him if that happens and Liv don't sign a new LB.

A trillion percent Liverpool will sign a left back, Robertson a hot fave

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[MoSe]

well, Brunt was listed as M and played as LB by WBA at the end of 14/15 season
FPL still listed his as M in 15/16, but he played LB almost all season
Finally FPL switched him to D in 16/17, and there he went back playing in Midfield (transfermarkt say only 1/3 his PL games were as LB)

So FPL might do the same with Milner, classify him as D because he played whole last season there, regardless what the actual Pool plans for the LB spot are.
Not that he'd be on topic here as CRD, but he'd be one OOP "fpl defender" to watch

[Paulista]

Holding if priced at 4.5 could be an interesting early pick if Arsenal continue how they finished last season and play 3-4-3 as Mustafi will likely miss the start of the season.

Chelsea being strongly linked with left back Sandro, but no idea if he would be Alonso's back up or replacement.

[Stemania]

Trippier is the one I'm really keeping my eye on. Could very plausibly come in at 5.0m again (he finished the season at 4.7m), and Walker is expected to move to City. Though if it does happen I'd expect Trippier to be one of the highest owned players in the game.

[Zimmerman]

Holding if priced at 4.5 could be an interesting early pick if Arsenal continue how they finished last season and play 3-4-3 as Mustafi will likely miss the start of the season.

Chelsea being strongly linked with left back Sandro, but no idea if he would be Alonso's back up or replacement.

They'll have chambers available to them presumably?

[SFC_Fan]

Thinking about just picking the three 4.5 best defenders who are going to olay everyweek and ignore fixtures. Simpson looks great value at 4.5, a Watford 4.5 is a certainty for me with Silva there and then possibly a Swansea 4.5 or Newcastle.

[Paulista]

Holding if priced at 4.5 could be an interesting early pick if Arsenal continue how they finished last season and play 3-4-3 as Mustafi will likely miss the start of the season.

Chelsea being strongly linked with left back Sandro, but no idea if he would be Alonso's back up or replacement.

They'll have chambers available to them presumably?

I believe that Holding will be ahead of Chambers in the pecking order. Anyhow, Holding is priced at 5.0, which I don't think is good value, and Chambers doesn't appear to be in the FPL price list yet.

Wenger has confirmed that he'll start with the back 3 formation, but Koscielny to me looks like the only safe Arsenal defender to start the season with.

[asm_fanz]

Koscielny is suspended for the first 2 games

[Mav3rick]

So where are we now on cheap defender rotation for the first part of the season? Given pre-seaon lineups so far, Hegazi paired with Mee is currently occupying my 4th defender rotation spot, which gives a run of

BOU, WBA, STK, CRY, WHM, HUD, WAT, WHU

That should be enough to cover off the first wildcard I'd think and supplies a decent looking defender spot. I know Palace were popular at one stage but their back 3 with Milivojevic as one of the defenders seems to have locked out the 4.5 starters.

[Finisher1]

So where are we now on cheap defender rotation for the first part of the season? Given pre-seaon lineups so far, Hegazi paired with Mee is currently occupying my 4th defender rotation spot, which gives a run of

BOU, WBA, STK, CRY, WHM, HUD, WAT, WHU

That's delicious but how confident are you that Hegazi will be nailed?

[Mav3rick]

I'm not that confident, but he has started the last couple of friendlies with seemingly first choice defenders and Foster around him.

In a 4 man defence, I'd need him for perhaps 4 fixtures up to the wildcard and some of those could potentially be covered by the 4.5 mids if needed.

I'd like someone more secure, but struggling to find a decent rotation around the likes of Suttner.

[Notned]

So where are we now on cheap defender rotation for the first part of the season? Given pre-seaon lineups so far, Hegazi paired with Mee is currently occupying my 4th defender rotation spot, which gives a run of

BOU, WBA, STK, CRY, WHM, HUD, WAT, WHU

That should be enough to cover off the first wildcard I'd think and supplies a decent looking defender spot. I know Palace were popular at one stage but their back 3 with Milivojevic as one of the defenders seems to have locked out the 4.5 starters.

This one could be very useful, so I'll certainly be keeping an eye on Hegazi's likelihood of starting.

Had planned 5.5/5.5/5/4.5/4, but Kolasinac looks too appealing for that D1 spot.

Is something like Kolasinac/Trippier/Hegazi/Mee/4m too weak? Mustafi and Cedric better than Kolasinac/4.5?

Still the chance I downgrade Sane and invest the saving in D3 too... much to ponder!

[blahblah]

Trippier

I am genuinely baffled by the Trippier Love - more like mass stalking tbh.

Most of Spurs CS's last season were at home, and they will be at Wembley where all the potential CS Clubs will raise their game as players get to play at the (OK once) "Home of Football..... Then when they play the bigger Clubs it will be like a neutral venue due to the number of times their players have played there?

[Notned]

Trippier

I am genuinely baffled by the Trippier Love - more like mass stalking tbh.

Most of Spurs CS's last season were at home, and they will be at Wembley where all the potential CS Clubs will raise their game as players get to play at the (OK once) "Home of Football..... Then when they play the bigger Clubs it will be like a neutral venue due to the number of times their players have played there?

The Wembley factor could be an issue, but Trippier is a great player. Typically a very tight defence, but even if that creaks a bit more than usual the attacking potential is there.. arguably the best defensive crosser of a ball in the league, imo.

[blahblah]

Trippier

I am genuinely baffled by the Trippier Love - more like mass stalking tbh.

Most of Spurs CS's last season were at home, and they will be at Wembley where all the potential CS Clubs will raise their game as players get to play at the (OK once) "Home of Football..... Then when they play the bigger Clubs it will be like a neutral venue due to the number of times their players have played there?

The Wembley factor could be an issue, but Trippier is a great player. Typically a very tight defence, but even if that creaks a bit more than usual the attacking potential is there.. arguably the best defensive crosser of a ball in the league, imo.

Fair comment: but I would expect at least 4-5 less CS's this season.

Does Poch have a back up RB? Or will he be one of Levy's late buys?