All we can do is make a call as to where the chips have the most beneficial effect on our teams in theory, depending on the landscape at that time. What then actually happens in terms of points once we've played the chips is, weirdly enough, almost irrelevant to me.
The BB37 this year has just been very unfortunate so far, and that's not got much to do with actually playing it in GW37 over say GW1 - plus there's still half a GW to go anyway. Pickford got 9 against a relegation fighter last week, but 1 so far this week against another. Holgate, Anichebe etc couldn't be predicted. Edit: my highest bench scores have been in GW5 (20), GW30 (27) and most recently GW35 (25) and there's no way I'd have played BB then - Jaku saving a pen vs Arsenal and then Southampton, and Evans/Capoue getting 9/10 points respectively at Old Trafford weren't likely events.
Oddly enough, I actually think GW1 is one of the last places I'd play BB. For one thing, the chances of 15 starters has got to be much lower than at the other popular times of the season as we don't for sure know starting elevens or even the good cheapies (just educated guesses from a few friendlies). I recall that the main reasons for such high scores in GW1 this year were simply that WBA (who were the popular sub defenders) got a first day CS away from home, and Capoue (who was a very popular 4.5m 8th mid) got double figures. Your 4th/5th best defender and 8th/cheapest attacker getting loads of points on the first day is not a likely outcome imo. Plus, if you've picked 5 defenders and 8 attackers all with good fixtures in GW1 you've likely chosen bad defensive rotation for the next few weeks as a result. Perhaps you can get away with it if you plan to spread the cash all around and then WC GW2 - i.e., use the net and not the fishing rod (I always try to do that to some extent in my starting eleven) - but predetermining the position of the WC before the season starts is not a good idea imo.
My theoretical problem with playing BB after the first WC (other than it likely having less points potential than in a DGW) is that the bench in that first wildcard squad is so important, perhaps the most important bench of the season - much of the bench is likely to last for a huge chunk of the season unless you happen to have free transfers not needed on your big budget players/first eleven - for example, how many of us would have liked to switch the second GK and didn't have the chance? Or perhaps get in McAuley at 4.5/4.6m etc - for the most part it's tough to change that WC bench. I wouldn't want to be choosing a different 8th attacker or rotation defender/GK based strongly on who might have a good game in one week only, when I need them as backup/in rotation for the perhaps as much as the next 20 weeks. At least with a DGW period BB you're likely getting the same DGW cheapies that you would otherwise have gotten anyway - because they'd likely be the obvious cheap regular bench picks for the whole DGW period regardless.
In an ideal world I'd always prefer the best place for all of the BB/TC/WC chips to end up falling quite far away from DGW37, because GW37 is inevitably going to see rotation in many teams and nothing to play for from others. Though sometimes the worst of it might come around GW34 and European commitments like last year I suppose - I think we just have to play each season by ear. Most years it seems to me there just isn't going to be a perfect arrangement and it's a case of fitting them in as best you can. For me the best strategy remains to wait to see the DGW landscape is, then consider all possible combos of the chips.
Who knows, if AOA is replaced next year by something more meaningful the entire conversation might change again!?
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