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Season captaincy analysis

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Paulista
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1945
Joined: 13 Aug 2016, 07:49

Re: Season captaincy analysis

Post by Paulista »

gforce1985 wrote:Hi everyone, just wanted to sign up to say thanks for all the info and chat on the forum this year. i have just been a viewer but have appreciated some knowledge here. in the end iv found myself in the top 10 and a very small chance to win the whole thing with 2 weeks to go. Thats down to luck, a few forums and a few punts!
Incredible, well done mate. Top 10 and with Nathan Redmond in your team, now that's impressive!

gforce1985
Cheetah
Posts: 7
Joined: 12 May 2017, 15:04
FS Record: Legendary. Top 10 worldwide.

Re: Season captaincy analysis

Post by gforce1985 »

Paulista wrote:
gforce1985 wrote:Hi everyone, just wanted to sign up to say thanks for all the info and chat on the forum this year. i have just been a viewer but have appreciated some knowledge here. in the end iv found myself in the top 10 and a very small chance to win the whole thing with 2 weeks to go. Thats down to luck, a few forums and a few punts!
Incredible, well done mate. Top 10 and with Nathan Redmond in your team, now that's impressive!
i know brought him in bout 6 gws back at the same price as king was :( our eyes get drawn to doubles too much.

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MoSe
Dumbledore
Posts: 9550
Joined: 10 Sep 2014, 12:25
Location: next door S.Siro stadium
FS Record: FISODAS CUP Winner Season 25
FISO H2H Winner: 15/16 Div2 - 16/17 Div1
FISO Mirror: 16/17 PL Winner

Re: Season captaincy analysis

Post by MoSe »

gforce1985 wrote:
Paulista wrote:
gforce1985 wrote:Hi everyone, just wanted to sign up to say thanks for all the info and chat on the forum this year. i have just been a viewer but have appreciated some knowledge here. in the end iv found myself in the top 10 and a very small chance to win the whole thing with 2 weeks to go. Thats down to luck, a few forums and a few punts!
Incredible, well done mate. Top 10 and with Nathan Redmond in your team, now that's impressive!
i know brought him in bout 6 gws back at the same price as king was :( our eyes get drawn to doubles too much.
WELCOME to FISO Image
and thanks for signing up and sharing! :shock:
"something" tells me your team must be GForce Allstars :D

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Ruth_NZ
Grumpy Old Gorilla
Posts: 9156
Joined: 25 May 2015, 22:46

Re: Season captaincy analysis

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Payet wrote:To be in top 10K you need 8.0, to finish in top 1K or above you need something between 8.7-9.2 which is practically impossible without at least 3-5 extremely lucky picks during the season (read: top class hauls). I would stop right here because I don't want to start the discussion about luck influence again.
No, you are overdoing it now. :lol: You are talking as if captaincy is the only significant differentiator but it isn't, it is one of a number of components.

The situation has changed a bit since the TC came in but before that 6.0 to 7.0 was very common in the top 10k. Last season I had around 6.1 doubled and finished 3k. I am in the top 1k now with 8.0 doubled and have made some bad mistakes in other areas this season. I consider 8.0 to be at the high end. Essentially it has balanced some poor performance in other areas.

It is also probable that what is achievable varies from season to season. This season a whole host of premium options have done well - Aguero, Costa, Kane, Sanchez, Hazard, Lukaku, Zlatan - and picking between them on form and fixtures hasn't been too hard. Last season the opposite was true. At the same time, defender PPG has been harder to achieve this time, partly because of the fall in the number of clean sheets, especially in the first half of the season. My defender PPG is 3.96 and that's after having worked very hard to improve it; after 10 weeks it was around 2.7 PPG. In previous seasons, 3.96 would have been damagingly poor but this season I'd imagine it's a fairly average (or slightly below average) number in the top 10k.

I won't go any further but the idea that 3-5 of my captains this season have been "extremely lucky picks" is something that I find quite annoying considering the amount of time I put into it. If I stuck a pin in every week and did well then maybe "extremely lucky" would be fair. But I don't (and I doubt any other diligent manager does either). If you want an example of luck, look at the 50/50 decision (in my view) between MacAuley and Evans at the start of the season. Both 4.5m WBA defenders; one has 125 points and gained his owners some useful TV; the other has 68 points and didn't. :roll: :lol: That's a 57-point swing, right there. But I'd actually think it unfair to put even that down to luck really, because then I'd be dismissing the possibility that MacAuley owners saw something that I didn't.

You will get things going for you (over-rewarded) and against you over a season, some of your own making and some just happenstance. I'd like to have a perfect season but I don't think that's ever likely. Maybe you need to get close to that to win outright but not to get in the top 10k (which is quite easy in my honest opinion). The gap between 1st and the 10k mark is currently 221 points; there's plenty of room to absorb some bad luck (or make some bad mistakes) and still make 10k.

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gallus
Grumpy Old Man
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Joined: 06 Sep 2014, 11:55

Re: Season captaincy analysis

Post by gallus »

Redsnout wrote:I have got 8.55 doubled this season. That is the main reason for a decent rank despite of taking 100 points hit. I don't know how to feel about that. :?
only 100? Pfft. :P

Seriously though, a top 5k rank with a 100pts worth of hits is an amazing achievement. I took 152pts worth of hits and am currently at 38k OR. Without hits I'd be in the top 1k. You'd probably be in the top 200!

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MoSe
Dumbledore
Posts: 9550
Joined: 10 Sep 2014, 12:25
Location: next door S.Siro stadium
FS Record: FISODAS CUP Winner Season 25
FISO H2H Winner: 15/16 Div2 - 16/17 Div1
FISO Mirror: 16/17 PL Winner

Re: Season captaincy analysis

Post by MoSe »

MoSe wrote:
gforce1985 wrote:Hi everyone, just wanted to sign up to say thanks for all the info and chat on the forum this year.
i have just been a viewer but have appreciated some knowledge here.
in the end iv found myself in the top 10 and a very small chance to win the whole thing with 2 weeks to go.
WELCOME to FISO Image
and thanks for signing up and sharing! :shock:
"something" tells me your team must be GForce Allstars :D
and here's a welcome gift from the resident chart-junkie 8-)
FPL 2017 GForce gw36.png
you had a very good start first,
then your constant improvement over the season certifies you have put to very good profit everything you gleaned on here and elsewhere :!:
your "straight line" trend would say you'll end 2nd :o but that's just stats :mrgreen:

too bad all your Leagues slots are filled, or you could've joined our Forum one, and snatch the title from under Joccki_10's nose! :twisted: :P
maybe next season then! :D

watch out in July for next "Official Fiso FPL minileague" topic viewtopic.php?f=82&t=121329
in our Sidegames subforum viewforum.php?f=82
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Hotstepper
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1640
Joined: 19 Jul 2015, 00:29
FS Record: Reasonable

Re: Season captaincy analysis

Post by Hotstepper »

gallus wrote:
Redsnout wrote:I have got 8.55 doubled this season. That is the main reason for a decent rank despite of taking 100 points hit. I don't know how to feel about that. :?
only 100? Pfft. :P

Seriously though, a top 5k rank with a 100pts worth of hits is an amazing achievement. I took 152pts worth of hits and am currently at 38k OR. Without hits I'd be in the top 1k. You'd probably be in the top 200!
My turn to confess. 164 points in hits, and sitting inside 11k.

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Joccki_10
Grumpy Old Joker
Posts: 11429
Joined: 26 Dec 2015, 11:20
FS Record: 16/17: 55 OR, 1 FISO Forum, 1 NLD and FISO Cup Winner

Re: Season captaincy analysis

Post by Joccki_10 »

Hotstepper wrote:
gallus wrote:
Redsnout wrote:I have got 8.55 doubled this season. That is the main reason for a decent rank despite of taking 100 points hit. I don't know how to feel about that. :?
only 100? Pfft. :P

Seriously though, a top 5k rank with a 100pts worth of hits is an amazing achievement. I took 152pts worth of hits and am currently at 38k OR. Without hits I'd be in the top 1k. You'd probably be in the top 200!
My turn to confess. 164 points in hits, and sitting inside 11k.
76 a k a 19 hits and inside the top 200. Rolled this week. :shock:

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Mav3rick
FISO Jedi Knight
Posts: 20858
Joined: 20 Jul 2009, 20:35
FS Record: FPL: 1082, 1201, 1800, 10203

The stats are dark and full of errors.

Re: Season captaincy analysis

Post by Mav3rick »

gforce1985 wrote:Hi everyone, just wanted to sign up to say thanks for all the info and chat on the forum this year. i have just been a viewer but have appreciated some knowledge here. in the end iv found myself in the top 10 and a very small chance to win the whole thing with 2 weeks to go. Thats down to luck, a few forums and a few punts!
Well it's great that you signed up, as a presumably likely highest finisher along with Joccki perhaps, it would be interesting if you felt like writing a review of your season.

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ALAN1289
Treebeard
Posts: 213
Joined: 27 Dec 2015, 13:04
Location: Angus Scotland

Re: Season captaincy analysis

Post by ALAN1289 »

450 total captaincy points. 6.25 average

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gallus
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3921
Joined: 06 Sep 2014, 11:55

Re: Season captaincy analysis

Post by gallus »

Joccki_10 wrote:
Hotstepper wrote:
gallus wrote:
Redsnout wrote:I have got 8.55 doubled this season. That is the main reason for a decent rank despite of taking 100 points hit. I don't know how to feel about that. :?
only 100? Pfft. :P

Seriously though, a top 5k rank with a 100pts worth of hits is an amazing achievement. I took 152pts worth of hits and am currently at 38k OR. Without hits I'd be in the top 1k. You'd probably be in the top 200!
My turn to confess. 164 points in hits, and sitting inside 11k.
76 a k a 19 hits and inside the top 200. Rolled this week. :shock:
That's crazy Joccki! Either you are the best hit taker ever or you could've been in the top 20 without hits!

gforce1985
Cheetah
Posts: 7
Joined: 12 May 2017, 15:04
FS Record: Legendary. Top 10 worldwide.

Re: Season captaincy analysis

Post by gforce1985 »

MoSe wrote:
MoSe wrote:
gforce1985 wrote:Hi everyone, just wanted to sign up to say thanks for all the info and chat on the forum this year.
i have just been a viewer but have appreciated some knowledge here.
in the end iv found myself in the top 10 and a very small chance to win the whole thing with 2 weeks to go.
WELCOME to FISO Image
and thanks for signing up and sharing! :shock:
"something" tells me your team must be GForce Allstars :D
and here's a welcome gift from the resident chart-junkie 8-) FPL 2017 GForce gw36.pngyou had a very good start first,
then your constant improvement over the season certifies you have put to very good profit everything you gleaned on here and elsewhere :!:
your "straight line" trend would say you'll end 2nd :o but that's just stats :mrgreen:

too bad all your Leagues slots are filled, or you could've joined our Forum one, and snatch the title from under Joccki_10's nose! :twisted: :P
maybe next season then! :D

watch out in July for next "Official Fiso FPL minileague" topic viewtopic.php?f=82&t=121329
in our Sidegames subforum viewforum.php?f=82
That's an interesting graph. Thanks. Been a bit silly final 10 weeks from me mostly trying to cover a mini league rival that has a grand on it. It's amazing how the small decisions change it all. If i had have went Coleman over Baines way back I'd been over 20 better off and I missed out on captain kanes hat tricks too. Thats bout 50 just on those 2 decisions. Maybe next year!

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Joccki_10
Grumpy Old Joker
Posts: 11429
Joined: 26 Dec 2015, 11:20
FS Record: 16/17: 55 OR, 1 FISO Forum, 1 NLD and FISO Cup Winner

Re: Season captaincy analysis

Post by Joccki_10 »

Mav3rick wrote:
gforce1985 wrote:Hi everyone, just wanted to sign up to say thanks for all the info and chat on the forum this year. i have just been a viewer but have appreciated some knowledge here. in the end iv found myself in the top 10 and a very small chance to win the whole thing with 2 weeks to go. Thats down to luck, a few forums and a few punts!
Well it's great that you signed up, as a presumably likely highest finisher along with Joccki perhaps, it would be interesting if you felt like writing a review of your season.
What do you think needs to get in a review like that? I'm preparing one at the moment.

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MoSe
Dumbledore
Posts: 9550
Joined: 10 Sep 2014, 12:25
Location: next door S.Siro stadium
FS Record: FISODAS CUP Winner Season 25
FISO H2H Winner: 15/16 Div2 - 16/17 Div1
FISO Mirror: 16/17 PL Winner

Re: Season captaincy analysis

Post by MoSe »

Joccki_10 wrote:What do you think needs to get in a review like that? I'm preparing one at the moment.
maybe you could try to confute such assertions
gallus wrote: That's crazy Joccki! Either you are the best hit taker ever or you could've been in the top 20 without hits!
and show how many pts you actually gained for each hit you took, and how you'd be worse off actually hadn't you taken all those hits! :P :wink:

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gallus
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3921
Joined: 06 Sep 2014, 11:55

Re: Season captaincy analysis

Post by gallus »

MoSe wrote:
gallus wrote: That's crazy Joccki! Either you are the best hit taker ever or you could've been in the top 20 without hits!
and show how many pts you actually gained for each hit you took, and how you'd be worse off actually hadn't you taken all those hits! :P :wink:
As an experienced hit taker I can tell you that most hits don't pay off immediately. It's difficult to say what their long term impact is, but I bet it's nowhere near 100 points. :D

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