GW 37/38 - End of Season Strategies

[Adelante]

Now the tough strategy decisions to make after things become a bit clearer leading into the final weeks of the season.

For me the big call is what subs to make with two free transfers. And whether to do 1 or two transfers this week (carrying makes no sense as I have the potential of three transfers left).

Want Jesus in and had thought about De Bruyne too but to do that I'd need to bin Sanchez, Sane and Benteke to go Jesus, De Bruyne and AN Other midfielder. Plus there's a potential double gameweek no scorer headache in Gabriel.

After tonight I'm thinking of binning the 'get De Bruyne in' approach and trying to get Jesus in by keeping Sanchez and Sane and getting the cash I need by selling one or possibly two (for a -4 hit) DF's particularly if I plan to use AOA if gw38.

It will come down to tactics and whether I can realistically catch my cash league leader who still has BB, TC and AOA available (which is the one he clearly won't use). There's 11 points in it so the double gameweek bench boost and who he plans to TC in gw38 (which I assume he will do) is what will likely be what decides our league.

The rotation risk of some teams, moreso in gw38 with the likes of Chelsea, is also the other big unknown. Really unpredictable.

Decisions, decisons. Any thoughts?

[RuudTheDudeVanTheMan]

My strategy is to kick ass and chew bubble gum...and I'm all outta gum! Have no bench boost left so Sanchez triple captain this week with 9 good doublers plus Lukaku and King. Brought Kompany in for Davies and will have enough to sell Pickford for a goalie with a good game for gw38 looking at Heaton, Mignolet and De Gea but I'm unsure about him due to rotation.

[Mav3rick]

There's not a lot of obvious strategy here really, now that the chips are basically decided it's just executing the latest step in a 3 or 4 GW plan for most I suspect.

I would be interested in the views of early wildcarders though, how they see their last couple of weeks playing out and also how they feel they have done by wildcarding early in comparison.

Strategically you obviously have to use the wildcard when you need it, but I wonder if anyone is regretting not taking hits then rather than now?

[Valeron]

3 strong City and 3 strong Arsenal players has to be the starting point for a good last 2 GWs. That is priority.

[Ruth_NZ]

There's not a lot of obvious strategy here really...

Yeah, strategy is over. A couple of tactical decisions in the attempt to maximise points over 2 weeks and that's the season done.

3 strong City and 3 strong Arsenal players has to be the starting point for a good last 2 GWs. That is priority.

It's not my priority.

[Razzler]

I have a rolled transfer, did the WC in 36, TC Sanchez but made no moves to give me the rollover. Can make 3 changes for a -4 so a bit to play with.

I have Gabriel and also Bailly. I expect Bailly to play at least 1 game. I expect heavy rotation for United the final weekend as top 4 is probably mathmatically gone by then.

I have no Jesus or Sane/KdB though and my options are binning Alli for Sane and then Jesus in for Gabbiadini but then Bailly would have to go down to a 4.0m defender and I'd still have Gabriel in the team.

Other option is not to panic with Jesus and bring Sane in for Alli and upgrade Davies bench fodder for a DGWer (Albrighton-ish). Can I survive without Jesus? I can bin Costa for Jesus in the final week as no rivals have Costa but for this DGW Chelsea's fixtures and Costa's form are as good as Jesus. A rival has Jesus and it's my only 'big' concern in protecting an, albeit, slender 25 point leader

[Billy Bongo]

There's not a lot of obvious strategy here really, now that the chips are basically decided it's just executing the latest step in a 3 or 4 GW plan for most I suspect.

I would be interested in the views of early wildcarders though, how they see their last couple of weeks playing out and also how they feel they have done by wildcarding early in comparison.

Strategically you obviously have to use the wildcard when you need it, but I wonder if anyone is regretting not taking hits then rather than now?

Good question

I wildcarded early as soon as the double dates were announced, as it was possible you could set up for 34, 36 and 37, took some work to figure out but the real key was the players needed for those weeks were in form way back in gw28, so the same players were good for a plan all the way through.

I do think some just left the WC late because it was the advice in all the usual places and didn't look at their own teams carefully enough.

This wasn't immediately obvious, I had to spend a long time figuring out the number of doubles I could get for those 3 weeks, without hits that turned out or be 3, 3 and 14 without hits.

But every transfer from 29 onwards had to be planned, and injuries covered by spend which I took as an acceptable risk as my team needed an overhaul.

I was 6k wk7 and had slipped back, my team wasn't working and provided I stuck to a plan it was worth it.

The key was it was entirely possibly to have 17 doubles in 36 and 37 wildcarding as soon as the dates were announced. Im not sure but don't think many noticed that, I did and i didn't share obviously, thought it was a good plan. 35 may well have been right for many to WC, but looking at the rmts it does look like too many managers fell into the trap of its good for someone else it's good for me.

Anyway, my plan was always to play 37 and 38 together, hence why I've sold Negredo and Britos on a spend now, as the two I've brought in Kompany and Anichibe are good for the last two weeks.

The free for 38 can be a punt like Son to Lallana.

I just think so many thought you needed a late WC to maximise 36 and 37, you didn't, you could have wildcarded weeks ago and still had 17 doubles.



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[TopMarx]

I would be interested in the views of early wildcarders though, how they see their last couple of weeks playing out and also how they feel they have done by wildcarding early in comparison.

Strategically you obviously have to use the wildcard when you need it, but I wonder if anyone is regretting not taking hits then rather than now?

i took a -12 for gw36 having used my WC in gw32. On WC i brought in players like Yoshida and I benefited by moving from 18k to 10k. I slipped a little since and despite a green arrow this week I'm currently at 12k.

my -12 included getting Cech, Sanchez and Koscielny so happy with that. 11 DGWers for 37, debating King or Siggy to Sane to make 12. Have BB.


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[Neath boy]

There's not a lot of obvious strategy here really, now that the chips are basically decided it's just executing the latest step in a 3 or 4 GW plan for most I suspect.

I would be interested in the views of early wildcarders though, how they see their last couple of weeks playing out and also how they feel they have done by wildcarding early in comparison.

Strategically you obviously have to use the wildcard when you need it, but I wonder if anyone is regretting not taking hits then rather than now?

Early wild card seems to have been the right option for me. Played in GW 30 and moved from 23,980 to 2,104. Getting the right players in early seemed to make more sense to me while also making sure I was set up ok for DGW. Enough transfers in that period to deal with any problems.

[Pulpy]

Another early wildcarder here with no regrets. Eight green arrows from eleven weeks following my GW26 wildcard would not have been achieved if I'd held on to the wildcard to play it late for a three/four week maximum benefit with the main focus on one double gameweek. Certainly not with the injuries I had at the time I played it.

Obviously there is some evening out now (this was fully expected and considered when choosing the earlier wildcard so no surprise or regret) as my squad is not quite as optimal as some at present and I've took a couple of hits but the wildcard is such a strong chip to leave so late.

How many late wildcarders genuinely considered earlier use of the chip perhaps through weeks they took hits or had injury concerns? Is it possible some were so blinkered about saving for the double that they missed an opportunity? Is double gameweek wildcarditus something to be aware of in future seasons?

These are the flip questions or devil's advocate stance to Mav3rick's of course and the truth is the only right and wrongs to weigh up are for your own teams personal circumstances. The key is not to follow others without careful consideration first because what may be right for some is not necessary always correct for your own team.

[dino1980]

I would be interested in the views of early wildcarders

I wasn't exactly an early wildcarder, but like you I played it in GW35. That's gained me 15-30 points over most of my mini-league rivals who played it in GW36. It doesn't necessarily mean it was the correct move but that's the lay of the land at the moment. GW37 may change things of course, but again I feel that those who went in 35 who still have two frees (I have one) may again find an edge.

It was interesting, to me at least, that all the FFS narrative and various podcasts focused on the GW36 wildcard with the GW35 WC seemingly overlooked. Seemed quite myopic. Especially as more wildcards were played in GW27 than GW36 (source officalFPL twitter).

Only 84k were played last week, which is still a decent amount of the active teams, but by no means as larger a number a I expected. Sometimes us addicts can get caught in a forum bubble I guess.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Wildcarded in GW33 and have halved my rank since having been sliding down the rankings. Probably should have done it earlier for the reasons Billy Bongo mentions. Took a calculated gamble with BB on CPL assets for the GW34 double which didn't really work. Having said that I knew that personal stuff would limit the time I had available for FF around this time so I have no regrets apart from getting a couple of individual player calls wrong, but that can happen any time.

[gallus]

There's not a lot of obvious strategy here really, now that the chips are basically decided it's just executing the latest step in a 3 or 4 GW plan for most I suspect.

I would be interested in the views of early wildcarders though, how they see their last couple of weeks playing out and also how they feel they have done by wildcarding early in comparison.

Strategically you obviously have to use the wildcard when you need it, but I wonder if anyone is regretting not taking hits then rather than now?

Early wildcarder here.

IMO the wildcard has saved my season, because it gave me a decent team and broke the hits cycle. The downside is that I needed to take 2 hits just to get 11 doublers for gw37, so 15 were out of the question from the start. Because of that I also went with early bench boost, but endend up playing it on one of the few weeks I got my benching decisions right.

I don't regret using the wildard when I did, because my whole season was one one huge slump before the wildcard. I do regret not using the BB in gw34 though.

[Archy]

I should have wildcarded in GW29/GW30 when I raised a thread on the subject here. As Billy says, I was put off doing so because of all those holding on. Fixtures were not announced, but we knew who had extra games to come so it was straightforward to pick players who were going to have doubles.

Probably would be knocking on top 1k if I'd gone for it then as would have benefitted from Hazard and Aguero points. As it is I may just squeeze back into top 10k if the late WC//BB combo pays off. Lesson learned for next season!

[OIEIAO]

Good question

I wildcarded early as soon as the double dates were announced, as it was possible you could set up for 34, 36 and 37, took some work to figure out but the real key was the players needed for those weeks were in form way back in gw28, so the same players were good for a plan all the way through.

I do think some just left the WC late because it was the advice in all the usual places and didn't look at their own teams carefully enough.

This is likely true in some cases. On FFS cast 3 of the 4 regulars played wildcards in week 36 and Az who wildcarded early seemed to be cast as the black sheep for following this wildly different strategy and had to keep reminding the others that no he wasn't taking pre wildcard punts. I'm exaggerating slightly but I never heard them discuss the merits of going early. It was going to be gw36 before a week 37 bench boost because that is the Right Thing To Do. (On one occasion Andy mulled a week 34 bench boost instead but I don't think did so. That was the only reference I heard).

HOWEVER I was not tempted to go early because my team was doing fine anyway. I've had 9 green arrows out of 10 and cut my overall rank by two third on that time, just with a few minus 4s. I felt it would have been mad to rip up a team that already had most of the key players at any one time.

The key was it was entirely possibly to have 17 doubles in 36 and 37 wildcarding as soon as the dates were announced. Im not sure but don't think many noticed that, I did and i didn't share obviously, thought it was a good plan.

Very confused by this. Aren't we here to help one another?

In any case not sure where 17 comes from. If you have 15 in week 37 and 3 Arsenal and 3 Southampton in 36 that's 21. Or maybe you're thinking non bench boost.

I think largely planning 9 weeks of transfers in advance is very risky unless you can justify the team through the interim weeks too and you can hold your nerve through small injuries and changes in form. I wouldn't have wanted to plan to ditch certain players to suit a long term strategy personally. Someone like Davies has had to be managed week to week with Rose injury news. Switching keepers is not something I'd have been keen to do weeks on advance but not would I have liked to use FTs on it and so on. Anyway you seem sure that this arguably good plan worked for you, so if l you think the upside well outweighed the down then well done.

[Billy Bongo]

I shared my early WC in an rmt thread but spent a time working out the plan, was there for all to see. Just chose not to share the workings out as a rival uses the forum

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[Billy Bongo]

And like the fella AZ you referred to, when I put the theory out there was dismissed as impetuous on Twitter

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[Billy Bongo]

Good question

I wildcarded early as soon as the double dates were announced, as it was possible you could set up for 34, 36 and 37, took some work to figure out but the real key was the players needed for those weeks were in form way back in gw28, so the same players were good for a plan all the way through.

I do think some just left the WC late because it was the advice in all the usual places and didn't look at their own teams carefully enough.

This is likely true in some cases. On FFS cast 3 of the 4 regulars played wildcards in week 36 and Az who wildcarded early seemed to be cast as the black sheep for following this wildly different strategy and had to keep reminding the others that no he wasn't taking pre wildcard punts. I'm exaggerating slightly but I never heard them discuss the merits of going early. It was going to be gw36 before a week 37 bench boost because that is the Right Thing To Do. (On one occasion Andy mulled a week 34 bench boost instead but I don't think did so. That was the only reference I heard).

HOWEVER I was not tempted to go early because my team was doing fine anyway. I've had 9 green arrows out of 10 and cut my overall rank by two third on that time, just with a few minus 4s. I felt it would have been mad to rip up a team that already had most of the key players at any one time.

The key was it was entirely possibly to have 17 doubles in 36 and 37 wildcarding as soon as the dates were announced. Im not sure but don't think many noticed that, I did and i didn't share obviously, thought it was a good plan.

Very confused by this. Aren't we here to help one another?

In any case not sure where 17 comes from. If you have 15 in week 37 and 3 Arsenal and 3 Southampton in 36 that's 21. Or maybe you're thinking non bench boost.

I think largely planning 9 weeks of transfers in advance is very risky unless you can justify the team through the interim weeks too and you can hold your nerve through small injuries and changes in form. I wouldn't have wanted to plan to ditch certain players to suit a long term strategy personally. Someone like Davies has had to be managed week to week with Rose injury news. Switching keepers is not something I'd have been keen to do weeks on advance but not would I have liked to use FTs on it and so on. Anyway you seem sure that this arguably good plan worked for you, so if l you think the upside well outweighed the down then well done.

I felt that an early WC had merit no more than that and that many dismissed it simply because so many said it wasnt, rather than doing some work themselves

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[gallus]

Actually I do have one strategy for gw38 - Terry(c)!

[sstaffsw]

Would like to do someone to Terry (c) but can't afford it, so it will most likely be Anichibe Barnes AOA

[Sutter Kane]

I want to see what my rival does with his free transfer before making my moves. However, I very much doubt he will give me the pleasure of a requisite amount of time before the deadline. i.e. he'll make the change 3 minutes before the cut-off!

Really will struggle to be happy with anything because the player(s) I'll be removing will be capable of biting me in the arse.

[math!]

Actually I do have one strategy for gw38 - Terry(c)!

The (C) Terry cult is growing stronger! He will score a pen, I feel it in my bones!

[Pirlo's Beard]

I want to see what my rival does with his free transfer before making my moves. However, I very much doubt he will give me the pleasure of a requisite amount of time before the deadline. i.e. he'll make the change 3 minutes before the cut-off!

Look at his team and try and pinpoint a few different moves he might make. Look at his squad value and work out what it would look like in the event of each individual move. Then, with this information at the ready, have three or four "Transfers" tabs open, with a different predicted move in each one ready to go when you see him make his move.

Three minutes should give you time to make the transfer and then make yourself a nice cup of tea and put your feet up before the deadline arrives.

[gallus]

Actually I do have one strategy for gw38 - Terry(c)!

The (C) Terry cult is growing stronger! He will score a pen, I feel it in my bones!

And two headers! One from a corner and one from a last minute free kick!

[Pirlo's Beard]

The (C) Terry cult is growing stronger!

Add me to the list, chaps! Have exact cash for Davies Terry.

He will score a pen, I feel it in my bones!

I think a towering headed goal from a corner is more likely. He's not the best at penalties.

[math!]

The (C) Terry cult is growing stronger!

Add me to the list, chaps! Have exact cash for Davies Terry.

He will score a pen, I feel it in my bones!

I think a towering headed goal from a corner is more likely. He's not the best at penalties.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Uu3A0i53s4 I will never forget this moment and how bad the penalty was. I can imagine the only thing stopping JT from taking a pen, should the opportunity arise, is the man himself.

[PokerGod1900]

Have 2 frees and literally no idea how to use them!

Initial thoughts were Siggy but Swansea maybe safe by then.

Otherwise may just look to make a couple of defensive punts.

[Gambit]

was looking at Swansea players but they are safe now, pretty much everything will have already been decided by GW38, relegation is now sorted so only Liverpool/Arsenal 4th spot.

GW38 always difficult and the way it has panned out this year there will be testimonial-esque games everywhere, will wait until the final pressers, fancy a couple of punts, not sure who but will be looking for games that look full of goals - like the WBA v UTD 5-5 from a few years back!

[Valeron]

Getting at least 1 Liverpool player will be the only move for me, unless Arsenal somehow fail against Sunderland. It requires 2 seconds thought.

[Paulista]

I have 2FT and thinking about deploying an AOA tactic.

I'm not desperate to use the chip, but I'm slightly worried about the playing time of three of my defenders.

Davies - maybe rose gets the last game.
Alonso - maybe rested for the cup final.
Stephens - suddenly dropped yesterday.

But not thinking too much about GW 38 yet until all GW 37 matches are finished.