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Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

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The Catman
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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by The Catman »

Archy wrote:Outstanding - that's 2 of us looking to crack Top 10k and beat the world's best player.....any others joining??
Me too....18 in front

Brunt, Kone and Fletcher were poor WC picks by Ville by any criteria, poor form and poor fixtures...

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eastcentral1
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Re: RE: Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by eastcentral1 »

Archy wrote:Outstanding - that's 2 of us looking to crack Top 10k and beat the world's best player.....any others joining??
I'm 3 points ahead of him. But it feels a bit like that time England beat Germany when they were going through a rare bad spell.

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Re: RE: Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Striker »

eastcentral1 wrote:
Archy wrote:Outstanding - that's 2 of us looking to crack Top 10k and beat the world's best player.....any others joining??
I'm 3 points ahead of him. But it feels a bit like that time England beat Germany when they were going through a rare bad spell.
:D

And no one is thrashing VR 5-1.

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by jcurtis23 »

He doesn't have Kane. Going to be his worst finish by far unless he can get a bit of luck next week

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Archy
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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Archy »

Yep it's pretty much game over for him now in his H2Hs with MoSe and myself too (can't say for others as can't see teams)

Better luck next year, Ville :D

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Hotstepper »

What are his current points and OR?

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Oxford NZ »

Hotstepper wrote:What are his current points and OR?
You can find the link to his team on page one of this thread.

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by MoSe »

gallus wrote:Which brings us to definition of skill.
What is skill in fpl?
https://genius.com/Haddaway-what-is-love-lyrics
HaddaVille wrote:I don't know why you're not there
I give you my skill but you don't care
So what is right and what is wrong?
Give me a sign

What is luck?
Baby, don't hurt me
Don't hurt me
no more

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Ruth_NZ »

No, no, no...

"Lucky love belongs in FISO heaven
I know, I know
'Cos I been there with MoSe tonight..."



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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Lugger »

Archy wrote: The challenge I keep on making but no-one seems able to answer is "what does Ville do that makes him better than other skilled managers"?? If you're going to argue his record is NOT in any way down to luck, please pinpoint some key decisions he's made that illustrate his superior skill. (I'm more than happy to learn, I just can't see what there is left to learn after all this analysis).
I've actually been keeping tabs on Ville's team this year because I keep hearing his name mentioned on Fantasy Scout. One thing I've noticed him doing is that throughout a lot of the season he left a lot of money in the bank, this seemed to be so that he could jump on any in form player(s) without taking hits. A lot of his game seems to revolve around not taking hits. It takes a lot if discipline in the game not to use excess money to strenghten your team in other areas, but Ville seems to take the patient approach so he can jump on any in form players without taking a hit.

I've also noticed that a lot of the time he will take a calculated decision not to get a highly favoured player in for certain weeks just to captain him, he'll risk going for an alternative player, usually one that he already has. This happened with him a few weeks ago, I can't remember the example and couldn't be bothered going into his team to check, but his risk taking aslo requires skill, sometimes luck.

He is an excellent player and you don't finish in the top quarter of a percent or whatever it is so consistently unless you are skilled player and have a formula that works. I like his tactic of keeping more money in the bank so he can react quickly to in form players without taking hits, I think I might try to utilise that one a bit more for next season if I can.

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by DAREEL »

If you look at Ville's leagues he doesn't seem to be in any mini leagues. Meaning he got a pressure free run at the game. Can this guy perform when he is having to make moves to catch up or block and opponent. Or decide a 50 50 that could mean the difference between winning hundreds of pounds or not. I guess it's like playing poker for fun vs playing poker when there is cash involved. Totally different game and it's easy to bring in and captain the high percentage players week in week out.

Not taking anything away because he still is a very good consistent player who may do the same playing in cash leagues but I'm guessing he's no better than any of us savvy players here. I been playing for 10 years and in profit every year bar one in 2013. I don't give a damn about rank it means nothing ( don't even check it) but I win cash leagues yearly. Id welcome playing against this guy and not saying I would beat him but no reason to think I couldn't. I'm sure there are many folk on here who would feel same also. The game also needs a lot of luck and these chips and double wildcards ( not a fan myself)added even more of a luck element to it.

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Valeron »

Your best chance of winning mini leagues etc is to get as many points as possible, play as optimally as possible. Basically any other tactic, 'moves to catch up', 'pressure to perform' etc. is a load of bollox. Ville would play exactly the same way if he was in more money leagues, I'm pretty sure of that. And unless you truly are a very good player, he would beat you most seasons.

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Lugger wrote:He is an excellent player and you don't finish in the top quarter of a percent or whatever it is so consistently unless you are a skilled player and have a formula that works.
This is a mistaken assumption that is often made and it really skews this whole argument.

Any competent and diligent manager will finish in the top 10k most of the time. They may have the occasional season where luck really turns against them (meaning injuries in particular) but even then they should easily make the top 25k. To finish below 100k means that you aren't very good and/or don't work hard enough at it, simple as that. Nothing wrong with that, of course. Why should I want to dictate how others play, or why they play, or whether they just muck around with it or whether they take it seriously? It's only a game after all. :?

But the point is that there really aren't that many managers who even have a good grasp of basic game mechanics, let alone being skilled (flexible) with them. Unfortunately the common thing amongst people in that situation nowadays is to go online to get "the cheats" rather than learning the fundamentals for themselves; that's one reason why FFS is so popular. But the problem is that there are no cheats for FPL and if you don't have a good understanding of the game (and decent judgement) then you won't know whether you are being given good advice or being drawn in to yet another idiot bandwagon.

The consequence of this is that the 4m+ figure is of no relevance whatsoever to a good manager.

In previous seasons it was even easier. Information and basic analysis is more widely disseminated nowadays and there are more managers playing with at least a modicum of sense. It used to be that simple competence, coupled with diligence, was enough to put you near the top of the pack. It still works but it doesn't get you as high a finish as before because there are more playing at that level. So I'd personally discount rankings going back over 5, 6, 7 or more seasons as pretty irrelevant where assessing current capability is concerned. VR was arguably the best when very few knew what they were doing. Whether he has improved much while others were catching up is doubtful to me from what I have seen. But personally I have never been interested in using VR as a benchmark anyway, because he was inaccessible. Triggerlips (who had a similar record to VR until the last 2 seasons) also had/has a good grasp of game mechanics and you could actually talk to him. He's the guy that I learned a lot of the basics from, although I may have been different to most because I was never aiming to replicate what he did, only to understand it and to test and challenge every assumption it contained so that I could try to surpass it.

My personal attitude to luck (apart from the occasional grumble which is emotional rather than rational) is that I will start to be concerned about it when I have become as good as I can get at FPL and when I am producing my A game every week of every season with no mistakes. But I am miles away from that on both counts. I am still learning the game and have made some egregious errors this season. That being the case, why should luck interest me? Better I work on something I can control - meaning my own standard of play. If person A and person B are equally capable then luck may divide them. I don't much care. I'm only interested in becoming person C who is better than them and beats them anyway.

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by DAREEL »

Valeron wrote:Your best chance of winning mini leagues etc is to get as many points as possible, play as optimally as possible. Basically any other tactic, 'moves to catch up', 'pressure to perform' etc. is a load of bollox. Ville would play exactly the same way if he was in more money leagues, I'm pretty sure of that. And unless you truly are a very good player, he would beat you most seasons.
Last edited by DAREEL on 21 May 2017, 10:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by DAREEL »

DAREEL wrote:
Valeron wrote:Your best chance of winning mini leagues etc is to get as many points as possible, play as optimally as possible. Basically any other tactic, 'moves to catch up', 'pressure to perform' etc. is a load of bollox. Ville would play exactly the same way if he was in more money leagues, I'm pretty sure of that. And unless you truly are a very good player, he would beat you most seasons.

Respectfully disagree. Everyone got different opinions and different way of playing. It would be dull if we all had same view though so going to leave you with that one. You could say the people who won more cash than villa over the years are better players? Depends what you play for and your view. It impresses me more somone winning a cash prize than finishing in top 1 k. I wouldn't even play if I wasn't in cash leagues . Rank doesn't motivate me one bit

If he played in my league he would defiantly be the favourite that's for sure . I'm not making out I'm " truly very good player" btw. I play different and I play defensively.

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by TopMarx »

Ruth_NZ wrote:In previous seasons it was even easier. Information and basic analysis is more widely disseminated nowadays and there are more managers playing with at least a modicum of sense. It used to be that simple competence, coupled with diligence, was enough to put you near the top of the pack. It still works but it doesn't get you as high a finish as before because there are more playing at that level.
I'm sure you've seen this but to illustrate your point about it becoming harder to get a good rank https://fpldiscovery.wordpress.com/2014 ... l-history/ contains some nice graphs too :)

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Stemania »

Ruth_NZ wrote: In previous seasons it was even easier. Information and basic analysis is more widely disseminated nowadays and there are more managers playing with at least a modicum of sense. It used to be that simple competence, coupled with diligence, was enough to put you near the top of the pack. It still works but it doesn't get you as high a finish as before because there are more playing at that level. So I'd personally discount rankings going back over 5, 6, 7 or more seasons as pretty irrelevant where assessing current capability is concerned.
You speak of a time you weren't around for so can't possibly know. You've been playing for, what, just under 3 years and you seek to denigrate the achievement of players from 5,6,7 years ago? Come on now.

I've long argued ranks should be normalised by the number of players in the game each year, I agree with that aspect, but to say that "it used to be that simple competence, coupled with diligence, was enough to put you near the top of the pack" is so wrong it's hilarious.

FFS was still around well over 5 years ago for example. My wife used the FFS watchlist as a main source of making transfers all the way back in 2012.

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Valeron »

I think a couple of guys on here said it was a piece of piss to get a top 5k finish 7-8+ years ago.

when was FFS born?

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Stemania »

Valeron wrote: when was FFS born?
The 2009/2010 season I think, somewhere around then.

Edit: Here, for example, is an old link page for some of their guides for the 2010/11 season:

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/f ... ball-tips/

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Sutter Kane »

Valeron wrote:I think a couple of guys on here said it was a piece of piss to get a top 5k finish 7-8+ years ago.

when was FFS born?
Well it may have been me. Personally I found it easier because I used to watch games (+research underlying stats) and decide on players from an FPL point of view.

Now the info is on a plate in many places and the addition of WCs, etc, etc has diluted things massively so yes, I still say it was pretty straightforward to do well.

It's good Ville has had this season. When he inevitably bounces back, we'll probably be more respectful because he's turned out to be human. :twisted:

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Archy »

You can't be remotely sure he'll bounce back.

Spirpdermatt, who was also revered around here, won 4 years ago and followed up with two more finishes inside the top 1,000. Last season he was around 19,000th, this year he's finished around 47,000th.

When are people going to get the mathematical reality that no-one is so skilful they can guarantee top 5k finishes in a field of 4m every year?!

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Stemania wrote:You speak of a time you weren't around for so can't possibly know. You've been playing for, what, just under 3 years and you seek to denigrate the achievement of players from 5,6,7 years ago?
I know there were a lot fewer teams. I also know that FFS was a much more niche site back then - it even was when I started using it. So I'm not seeking to denigrate anyone actually. It just seems to me that it's pretty self-evident that the number of informed managers has grown, that's all.

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

Archy wrote:Spirpdermatt, who was also revered around here, won 4 years ago and followed up with two more finishes inside the top 1,000.
Spirpdermatt???

I know of a spiderm4tt, but I haven't come across any Spirpdermatts around here. :lol: :wink:

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Valeron
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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Valeron »

Haven't all the revered retro managers had at least 1 iffy season in the last 2, including Ville now? Trig, Hancock, spiderMatt, Simon March.

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by hancockjr »

At least 1!

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by triggerlips »

Interesting read guys, should have visited here more often, makes a change to see some intelligent debate with no dick waving going on

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Mr Clarinet »

It turns out FPL managers aren't the only ones who think about skill vs luck. There was a 'personal finance' programme on the radio last night, with a discussion that included consideration of the relative merits of tracker funds and actively managed funds (the point being that the latter have higher fees in order to pay for the active management, but then you - supposedly - benefit in terms of performance - as financial returns - from the active management). So your choice should depend on the (future) performance of the active fund manager, which you have to predict from past performance. Thus the issue was raised as to how much data was needed to be able to determine whether an active fund manager's observed results were skilful or lucky; and the answer, apparently, is at least 22-years-worth.

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by maradonash »

Mr Clarinet wrote:It turns out FPL managers aren't the only ones who think about skill vs luck. There was a 'personal finance' programme on the radio last night, with a discussion that included consideration of the relative merits of tracker funds and actively managed funds (the point being that the latter have higher fees in order to pay for the active management, but then you - supposedly - benefit in terms of performance - as financial returns - from the active management). So your choice should depend on the (future) performance of the active fund manager, which you have to predict from past performance. Thus the issue was raised as to how much data was needed to be able to determine whether an active fund manager's observed results were skilful or lucky; and the answer, apparently, is at least 22-years-worth.
Out-of-interest, what station was this broadcast on? Wouldn't mind a listen.

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Mr Clarinet
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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Mr Clarinet »

maradonash wrote:
Mr Clarinet wrote:It turns out FPL managers aren't the only ones who think about skill vs luck. There was a 'personal finance' programme on the radio last night, with a discussion that included consideration of the relative merits of tracker funds and actively managed funds (the point being that the latter have higher fees in order to pay for the active management, but then you - supposedly - benefit in terms of performance - as financial returns - from the active management). So your choice should depend on the (future) performance of the active fund manager, which you have to predict from past performance. Thus the issue was raised as to how much data was needed to be able to determine whether an active fund manager's observed results were skilful or lucky; and the answer, apparently, is at least 22-years-worth.
Out-of-interest, what station was this broadcast on? Wouldn't mind a listen.
Here you go... item starts about 10 minutes in... don't expect too much (unless you're about to invest in a pension fund!)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08qxd06

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Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by immcinto »

Sutter Kane wrote:
Well it may have been me. Personally I found it easier because I used to watch games (+research underlying stats) and decide on players from an FPL point of view.

Now the info is on a plate in many places and the addition of WCs, etc, etc has diluted things massively so yes, I still say it was pretty straightforward to do well.
Here's a question that doesn't get asked much, but is touched upon by Sutter Kane:

Do you need to actually watch a lot of matches and have a footballing brain to be a top, top FPL manager - or is it all just data mining and analysis?

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