Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

[Stemania]

Ville preferred Costa to Kane pretty much all season.

Arguably this one - continued - mistake throughout the season (which only told at the very end) is enough to question whether Ville really has the exceptional judgement people claim he has.

With all that in mind, I don't feel there is anything left to learn from Ville now, which is why I have more interest in instead following this guy who’s finished in the top 300 for the last 3 years.

https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/6746/history

He has comfortably beaten Ville over the last 3 years, and, what's more, done it in a completely different style -taking 100 points worth of hits last season and building a massive TV on the way to a 138 ranking. This is someone I am much more interested in following: Not only has he been better than Ville in recent history, he's actually played in a dynamic and entertaining way too.....

I'm interested in following Peter Kouwenberg too (it would make a fantastic contrast to watch both him and Ville at the same time), but the Costa vs Kane ownership facts are quite unfortunate for your argument. As per FPL Statistico

Ville striker ownership:
Costa 15 weeks
Kane 14 weeks (+1 benched)

Kouwenberg striker ownership:
Costa 17 weeks
Kane 11 weeks

[Archy]

Wow, I take it back, I have no interest in following Kouwenberg either then!

[Stemania]

Wow, I take it back, I have no interest in following Kouwenberg either then!

[Archy]

Its said in jest, but there is a serious element too....

Instead I will proopose another theory (without examining his record)....he must have gotten extremely lucky with Lukaku captancies this year (as most people near the top this season did).

[Finisher1]

I'm glad to see some interesting discussion here by many of my favourite FISO contributors. This is great summer reading

Personally I'm on holiday from FPL after a frustrating season. I'll come back on August (or perhaps sooner if I see someone is clearly wrong here)

[Billy Bongo]

I agree with Ruth, the debate really is finalised once you accept Ronka has to adapt a little bit more to the game, maybe be a bit more nimble and take more risks who knows, his game play has just looked a tad dull that's all

Sent from mobile

[Sutter Kane]

I agree with Ruth, the debate really is finalised once you accept Ronka has to adapt a little bit more to the game, maybe be a bit more nimble and take more risks who knows, his game play has just looked a tad dull that's all

Sent from mobile

Well I can't conclude that 'dull' won't work next season or that it didn't work this season for some of the top HOF'ers. I think it's a bit haphazard to try and put Ville's bad rank down to something in particular. He was in a promising position at around 11k going into GW37, to drop from 11k to 21k is preposterous; the one decision to not get Kane was too risky. given nearly anyone who's anyone in those upper echelon rankings had him. We have to assume however, this was going to be his worst season ever even if he did get Kane. Would anyone bet he won't make top 5k next season, I certainly wouldn't but I'm glad to see he's now been 'affected' like everyone else...it's healthier for everyone to see a number of ace managers out there now rather than a top dog with whom fiso endured a love/hate relationship...

[Tacalabala]

We should definitely follow Ville and this other guy, makes for a great H2H

[MoSe]

Ville striker ownership:
Costa 15 weeks
Kane 14 weeks (+1 benched)

Kouwenberg striker ownership:
Costa 17 weeks
Kane 11 weeks

will check for myself at first convenience, but are you implying no "both"?
Or did you just count each one, without reporting any overlap details?

[Billy Bongo]

Stutter

It's not just about Kane, he missed a boat load of points refusing to get a Liverpool mid when they were scoring for fun.

Having followed the various threads about his season he seemed ponderous and risk averse , just an opinion

Sent from mobile

[Stemania]

will check for myself at first convenience, but are you implying no "both"?
Or did you just count each one, without reporting any overlap details?

It's just the total number of weeks each striker was in each squad (overlap included if and when it happened), as per FPL Statistico. That's the extent of Statistico's output, for more details would have to count by hand

[Sutter Kane]

Bong; Yeah I understand that it could be that he's not reactive enough this season. But we have heard that before a few years ago and since. Some people have always claimed it's the right way to play and this year is no different. It's like the TV thing, I have no real interest in sacrificing points for TV early on. I don't think it's relevant enough but some people swear by it. Firmino/Coutinho/Mane/(Lallana even) were rarely all scoring at the same time for an extended period so I can see why he'd not want to pick one.

However I repeat, this season could well be that different one as you say, where being reactive was key and patience punished.

[Sutter Kane]

Be interesting to see his tactics next season. IMO he'll stay exactly the same so will be fascinating to see if he sports another sub-5k by the end...

[Billy Bongo]

I'm the same, couldn't care less about TV, it's become a badge of honour for some and a game within a game

Just pick the player you think will score you most points

Transfer

Sent from mobile

[Kuchi]

After reading all these threads the thought that keeps coming back into my mind is how/can we measure luck? Clearly we could never get an incredibly accurate method/formula but I was thinking along the lines of this. Say there is a very very difficult choice between two options. In this case let us say either Mane/Coutinho or Azpi/Alonso or Baines/Coleman or Alli/Erikson. Where on paper they are the same (again please be very forgiving with this) and essentially it is a coin toss. You would have to look at all those choices and see who got the highest right? Yes you would need a panel of players to decent on the weeks/options and if there was nothing (or almost nothing) to choose between the two players. I will accept this is rather primitive but what other options do we have.

Perhaps we should try focus on those weeks where you want to get a player from a team and look at our decision making. I was watching the Liverpool game just before Lallana got 19 points at Boro and remember thinking my god he is playing so attacking he is going to be in the points. Ok 19 points was just ridiculous but I think the "eye test" should be a factor too. Foolishly I stuck with Baines forever and a day instead of switching to Coleman. Maybe if I had actually watched an Everton game things might have been different. Not that I don't spend enough time as it is on this game ....

Now that Ville has been dethroned perhaps peoples views on him will change with the luck to skill ratio?

[Sutter Kane]

Apologies if this has been posted elsewhere but some interesting links to some different HOF league tables about a third of the way down the page:


http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2 ... t_15795010

[Billy Bongo]

Is luck a thing anyway, does it actually exist?

Sent from mobile

[MoSe]

Apologies if this has been posted elsewhere but some interesting links to some different HOF league tables about a third of the way down the page:


http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2 ... t_15795010

Thanks SK, I should visit FFS .more often
It's a post in green titled
BEST FPL MANAGERS OF ALL TIME
I'm not familiar with their board style, can't you link to single posts?
_____________

Also sad to say, but I've read more sensible and openminded reasoning there, than recently here on Fiso...
---------- EDIT:
I must had been in a bad mood, I apologise for what from others I'd have called a snide remark
It's more correct to say that in this thread and mostly in others we can read interesting, clever and correct posts.
At first sight the comments in FFS had struck me tho for being sensible, reasonable and openminded, and I considered how occasionally the conversation here had not always been up to that standard

[MoSe]

Apologies if this has been posted elsewhere but some interesting links to some different HOF league tables about a third of the way down the page:
http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2 ... t_15795010

Thanks SK, I should visit FFS .more often
It's a post in green titled
BEST FPL MANAGERS OF ALL TIME
I'm not familiar with their board style, can't you link to single posts?

I see now your link included the comment #
the 'goto' didn't work from my android tho, it sent me to article start, it only works from work PC
I also see now there's a "permalink" icon http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/15795010 (didn't show from mobile)

having credited the source and the author @drbenmcnair enough,
I directly link the Google sheets for more immediate access
(beware, 13M each)
Tot Pts https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =871058211
G.mean https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =268337058
M-index https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1144023806
by my reckoning, the data are the same, just the title description and the sorting change

[Sutter Kane]

Apologies if this has been posted elsewhere but some interesting links to some different HOF league tables about a third of the way down the page:
http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2 ... t_15795010

Thanks SK, I should visit FFS .more often
It's a post in green titled
BEST FPL MANAGERS OF ALL TIME
I'm not familiar with their board style, can't you link to single posts?

I see now your link included the comment #
the 'goto' didn't work from my android tho, it sent me to article start, it only works from work PC
I also see now there's a "permalink" icon http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/15795010 (didn't show from mobile)

having credited the source and the author @drbenmcnair enough,
I directly link the Google sheets for more immediate access
(beware, 13M each)
Tot Pts https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =871058211
G.mean https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =268337058
M-index https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1144023806
by my reckoning, the data are the same, just the title description and the sorting change

Given I don't really know what a permalink is and my mobile is 20 years old, I think it's safe to say I didn't understand any of that I have no idea what I did or didn't do or whether it was bad or not bad. Anyway as long as you've cleared it up now...

[MGPT]

Wow I had no idea that Peter Kouwenberg had such an amazing record. It impresses me far more than VR and seems less 'lucky'.

I've not followed his team before so would love to hear more about his playing tendencies. From what I can gather looking briefly at last season he sticks to 343 and 352 mainly, takes a lot of hits and seems to favour three big hitters up top.

Does he tend to make trades early in the week and chase TV?

Was his big three up top policy just based on the lack of cheap strikers last year or has he always tended towards that?

Does he tend to chase form or fixtures?

Does he play it fairly safe regards high ownership players and poll leading captains?

Has he ever been interviewed or discussed his strategy anywhere?

[MoSe]

Has he [Peter Kouwenberg] ever been interviewed or discussed his strategy anywhere?

can't answer this about "on the net" (I'd just google his name, which anyone can do)
even "in Fiso" I'm not sure, but there was a Stalker "game" in 15/16 viewtopic.php?f=82&t=116788
no Kouwenberg that season, the same topic ran on for 16/17 too, you'd have to browse/search that thread to find out

[Oxford NZ]

It looks like Ville's Eliteserien team went dead a few game weeks ago. He must be putting a lot of pre season work for FPL

[TopMarx]

Has he [Peter Kouwenberg] ever been interviewed or discussed his strategy anywhere?

can't answer this about "on the net" (I'd just google his name, which anyone can do)
even "in Fiso" I'm not sure, but there was a Stalker "game" in 15/16 viewtopic.php?f=82&t=116788
no Kouwenberg that season, the same topic ran on for 16/17 too, you'd have to browse/search that thread to find out

Peter was actually commenting on the community articles I wrote on FFS last year following the moves of the top 5 HoF managers. He would pretty much always tell us his moves and thinking ahead of the deadline. It was incredibly kind of him to offer such insights. Here's a link to the gw38 article http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2 ... 38-review/

[Archy]

I am so here for the 'Ville is a lucky SOB'-brigade to fire their ammunition.

I thought the debate on that was conclusively settled last year

But, if anyone wants to dip into this territory again, how does one explain what’s happened to Peter Kouwenberg? He was the Hall of Fame No 1 at the start of the season. The idea of following him this year instead of Ville was mooted on here.

His record over last 5 years reads:

2013/14 - 4324
2014/15 - 289
2015/16 - 129
2016/17 - 138

2017/18 current rank (wait for it...) - 266,990

https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/36298/history

And the HoF no 2, Graeme Sumner, is actually faring no better ....as I write he’s placed 271,178

https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/345/history

So Ville is making a comeback in the HoF this year......but if it’s all down to skill how can one explain the top 2 in the world at the start of the season both currently sitting outside the top 250k in this years rankings?

(No doubt these rankings will continue to improve over the remainder of the season, but the point is neither is going to finish anywhere remotely close to their lofty positions of the past few seasons)

[gallus]

I am so here for the 'Ville is a lucky SOB'-brigade to fire their ammunition.

I thought the debate on that was conclusively settled last year

But, if anyone wants to dip into this territory again, how does one explain what’s happened to Peter Kouwenberg? He was the Hall of Fame No 1 at the start of the season. The idea of following him this year instead of Ville was mooted on here.

His record over last 5 years reads:

2013/14 - 4324
2014/15 - 289
2015/16 - 129
2016/17 - 138

2017/18 current rank (wait for it...) - 266,990

https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/36298/history

And the HoF no 2, Graeme Sumner, is actually faring no better ....as I write he’s placed 271,178

https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/345/history

So Ville is making a comeback in the HoF this year......but if it’s all down to skill how can one explain the top 2 in the world at the start of the season both currently sitting outside the top 250k in this years rankings?

(No doubt these rankings will continue to improve over the remainder of the season, but the point is neither is going to finish anywhere remotely close to their lofty positions of the past few seasons)

I'm firmly in the luck camp, but a single "bad" season doesn't mean anything imo. If you stop paying attention for 3 weeks for whatever reason your OR will suffer.

[Archy]

I don’t think Kouwenberg and Summer have that excuse Gallus, they know they are under scrutiny on FFS, post on FFS and I’ve even seen Kouwenberg doing a podcast recently. They are most definitely not taking it lightly.

(Credit to Kouwenberg btw for doing that podcast in a year he’s doing poorly. He even talked about this season vs previous ones and basically said his transfer decisions just haven’t gone right this year, whereas in others he seemed to have the Midas touch)

Here is said podcast for anyone interested

https://youtu.be/IOnFZg6WVYg

[Jay P]

I am so here for the 'Ville is a lucky SOB'-brigade to fire their ammunition.

I thought the debate on that was conclusively settled last year

But, if anyone wants to dip into this territory again, how does one explain what’s happened to Peter Kouwenberg? He was the Hall of Fame No 1 at the start of the season. The idea of following him this year instead of Ville was mooted on here.

His record over last 5 years reads:

2013/14 - 4324
2014/15 - 289
2015/16 - 129
2016/17 - 138

2017/18 current rank (wait for it...) - 266,990

https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/36298/history

And the HoF no 2, Graeme Sumner, is actually faring no better ....as I write he’s placed 271,178

https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/345/history

So Ville is making a comeback in the HoF this year......but if it’s all down to skill how can one explain the top 2 in the world at the start of the season both currently sitting outside the top 250k in this years rankings?

(No doubt these rankings will continue to improve over the remainder of the season, but the point is neither is going to finish anywhere remotely close to their lofty positions of the past few seasons)

There is absolutely skill involved in this game and there is absolutely luck involved. This whole conversation of it being one or the other is narrow minded. Peter and Graeme having bad seasons doesn’t make them any less adept, in fact they’re probably better for it going into next season (assuming their drop in form isn’t just down to them losing focus).

[Zimmerman]

We all tend to pat ourselves on the back or laud one another when decisions prove fruitful and bemoan bad luck when they don’t.

There’s definitely elements of both involved.