To see less ads Register or Login ----- Daily Fantasy Sports games 18+

Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

A Fantasy Football forum for news on fantasy football games run by the Premierleague (FPL).
Post Reply
User avatar
Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3210
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09
FS Record: Maybe all is not lost after all

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Archy »

Mr Clarinet wrote:It turns out FPL managers aren't the only ones who think about skill vs luck. There was a 'personal finance' programme on the radio last night, with a discussion that included consideration of the relative merits of tracker funds and actively managed funds (the point being that the latter have higher fees in order to pay for the active management, but then you - supposedly - benefit in terms of performance - as financial returns - from the active management). So your choice should depend on the (future) performance of the active fund manager, which you have to predict from past performance. Thus the issue was raised as to how much data was needed to be able to determine whether an active fund manager's observed results were skilful or lucky; and the answer, apparently, is at least 22-years-worth.
Good post.

I've seen analysis beofre that showed there was no significant difference in the performance of the average managed fund and an index tracker. And when you took the management fees in to account the trackers (which are cheaper) did significantly better.

You do wonder about these so called star fund managers who've out-performed the market for a few years running. Funny to hear you'd need 22 years worth of data to assess the statistical significance....maybe we should reconvene this conversation in 15 or so years time :D

User avatar
gallus
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3921
Joined: 06 Sep 2014, 11:55

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by gallus »

immcinto wrote:
Sutter Kane wrote:
Well it may have been me. Personally I found it easier because I used to watch games (+research underlying stats) and decide on players from an FPL point of view.

Now the info is on a plate in many places and the addition of WCs, etc, etc has diluted things massively so yes, I still say it was pretty straightforward to do well.
Here's a question that doesn't get asked much, but is touched upon by Sutter Kane:

Do you need to actually watch a lot of matches and have a footballing brain to be a top, top FPL manager - or is it all just data mining and analysis?
I still think that watching the games is the best way to play, but this year I haven't watched that many and my rank hasn't suffered too much. Once you know the style of all the teams and players you get away with looking at stats only.

User avatar
Billy Bongo
FISO Knight
Posts: 12000
Joined: 21 Jul 2013, 22:18

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Billy Bongo »

All said and done he was just two decisions away from top 5k

A different triple cap, he went Aguero in 34
And Kane, he missed his 48 point haul in 37/38

Triple captain Kane in 37 he'd be usual top 5k

That's all it was



Sent from mobile

User avatar
Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3210
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09
FS Record: Maybe all is not lost after all

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Archy »

That is all it was.

If only he'd had bit more luck with his final few decisions, his outstanding record would have continued and we could all have continued admiring how skilful he is :wink:
Last edited by Archy on 22 May 2017, 21:30, edited 1 time in total.

Finisher1
Dumbledore
Posts: 7159
Joined: 05 Mar 2013, 10:10

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Finisher1 »

Billy Bongo wrote:All said and done he was just two decisions away from top 5k

A different triple cap, he went Aguero in 34
And Kane, he missed his 48 point haul in 37/38

Triple captain Kane in 37 he'd be usual top 5k

That's all it was
Indeed.

Those who say "yes, luck plays some role but a good manager always makes at least top 10k" or "yes, luck plays some role but it's no more than 50 points per season" - you are proven wrong.

Luck and randomness play huge role in this game.

I don't think Ville Rönkä was unlucky in terms of being punished by Kane - that was a very poor decision in the first place. But he was unlucky in terms of the extent of punishment - that was a laughable points swing followed by one single poor decision. Players like Sanchez and Costa have no doubt caused similar laughable points swings to many managers this season - both of them had remarkable hauls streaks as well as remarkable blank streaks, while the points expectation was quite steady throughout the whole season. Points swings can be massive and that's why luck and randomness may easily play bigger role than +/-50 points per season.

User avatar
Billy Bongo
FISO Knight
Posts: 12000
Joined: 21 Jul 2013, 22:18

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Billy Bongo »

Yep, and let's not forget the FPL overall title was decided by an auto sub.

Luck plays a huge part

Sent from mobile

User avatar
Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3210
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09
FS Record: Maybe all is not lost after all

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Archy »

Ha just looked at the top 2.

Amazing that the guy who was top at the start of the week took out Alli and Sane for Coutinho and Lallana for a 4 point hit (overall the move cost him 2 points). Who would ever do that when trying to protect a lead...how could he possibly have thought Lallana would outscore Sane by 5 or more points :!:

I note also that the top player hadn't been in the top 10k in the previous 4 years and 2nd place hadn't been in the top 50k in the last 4 years. Says it all really.

triggerlips
Kevin and Perry
Posts: 20
Joined: 17 Aug 2010, 06:36

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by triggerlips »

Archy wrote:Ha just looked at the top 2.

I note also that the top player hadn't been in the top 10k in the previous 4 years and 2nd place hadn't been in the top 50k in the last 4 years. Says it all really.
The Winner had finished in the top 400 in 2012. That takes quality, it is not as if people forget how to play. He was clearly capable of putting in a good performance. Maybe the last Four seasons he struck some difficult patches, and this season it all came together.

User avatar
Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3210
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09
FS Record: Maybe all is not lost after all

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Archy »

So are you saying he was skillful in the years he did well and unlucky in the years he didn't?

User avatar
Joccki_10
Grumpy Old Joker
Posts: 11429
Joined: 26 Dec 2015, 11:20
FS Record: 16/17: 55 OR, 1 FISO Forum, 1 NLD and FISO Cup Winner

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Joccki_10 »

Archy wrote:So are you saying he was skillful in the years he did well and unlucky in the years he didn't?
Why do you call it lucky and unlucky everytime? I mean... surely a skillful manager can make a bad decision during a season which could eventually cost him?

Messi has poor matches too, right? :)

hancockjr
Dumbledore
Posts: 7976
Joined: 17 Aug 2006, 21:24
FS Record: FPL: Not as good as it was, but still very respectable.

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by hancockjr »

There's no luck in chess, but the best players still lose games.

There also no luck in snap (unlike any other card game) but I don't follow that on the world stage, I'm afraid.

User avatar
gallus
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3921
Joined: 06 Sep 2014, 11:55

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by gallus »

hancockjr wrote:There's no luck in chess, but the best players still lose games.

There also no luck in snap (unlike any other card game) but I don't follow that on the world stage, I'm afraid.
There are snap world championships? :shock:

Lugger
Treebeard
Posts: 239
Joined: 17 Aug 2012, 14:26

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Lugger »

Archy wrote:Ha just looked at the top 2.

Amazing that the guy who was top at the start of the week took out Alli and Sane for Coutinho and Lallana for a 4 point hit (overall the move cost him 2 points). Who would ever do that when trying to protect a lead...how could he possibly have thought Lallana would outscore Sane by 5 or more points :!:

I note also that the top player hadn't been in the top 10k in the previous 4 years and 2nd place hadn't been in the top 50k in the last 4 years. Says it all really.
Apparently the guy who won it Ben Crabtree(the Everton fan) hadn't gotten a Liverpool player in his team all season, so I'm guessing the guy in second probably knew this and guessed that he wouldn't have brought in the Liverpool players he transfered in. They do seem like strange transfers to make when the title is on the line, so I'm guessing that might have had something to do with it.

That's dedication not bringing in any Liverpool players even though it could cost you the title, lol. Everton should give him a free season ticket for next season.

User avatar
gallus
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3921
Joined: 06 Sep 2014, 11:55

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by gallus »

Lugger wrote:
Archy wrote:Ha just looked at the top 2.

Amazing that the guy who was top at the start of the week took out Alli and Sane for Coutinho and Lallana for a 4 point hit (overall the move cost him 2 points). Who would ever do that when trying to protect a lead...how could he possibly have thought Lallana would outscore Sane by 5 or more points :!:

I note also that the top player hadn't been in the top 10k in the previous 4 years and 2nd place hadn't been in the top 50k in the last 4 years. Says it all really.
Apparently the guy who won it Ben Crabtree(the Everton fan) hadn't gotten a Liverpool player in his team all season, so I'm guessing the guy in second probably knew this and guessed that he wouldn't have brought in the Liverpool players he transfered in. They do seem like strange transfers to make when the title is on the line, so I'm guessing that might have had something to do with it.

That's dedication not bringing in any Liverpool players even though it could cost you the title, lol. Everton should give him a free season ticket for next season.
If anything that makes it even more crazy. He had the lead and took a hit to 1) bring in a differential 2) lose the lead before kickoff. And he kept King even though we knew he was injured hours before the deadline.

Finisher1
Dumbledore
Posts: 7159
Joined: 05 Mar 2013, 10:10

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Finisher1 »

Indeed, it's very strange to differentiate your team when your are protecting your lead.

Anyway, what a childish policy this "I don't take any Liverpool players". Not something I expect to see from a rational manager.

User avatar
bigcliff2
Dumbledore
Posts: 6040
Joined: 22 May 2008, 12:08
Location: Nae business bein' in Yoker
FS Record: Rubbish

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by bigcliff2 »

Finisher1 wrote:Indeed, it's very strange to differentiate your team when your are protecting your lead.

Anyway, what a childish policy this "I don't take any Liverpool players". Not something I expect to see from a rational manager.
Without offence to any sensible Everton fans on here, "rational" isn't a word you associate with a lot of them when it comes to Liverpool.

User avatar
Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3210
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09
FS Record: Maybe all is not lost after all

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Archy »

Joccki_10 wrote:
Archy wrote:So are you saying he was skillful in the years he did well and unlucky in the years he didn't?
Why do you call it lucky and unlucky everytime? I mean... surely a skillful manager can make a bad decision during a season which could eventually cost him?

Messi has poor matches too, right? :)
I agree totally.

Sorry I should have put a :wink: becasue i was really using the word 'unlucky' in an ironic sense to try and encourage folk to think about the inherent inconsistencies in this line of argument.

User avatar
Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3210
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09
FS Record: Maybe all is not lost after all

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Archy »

gallus wrote:
Lugger wrote:
Archy wrote:Ha just looked at the top 2.

Amazing that the guy who was top at the start of the week took out Alli and Sane for Coutinho and Lallana for a 4 point hit (overall the move cost him 2 points). Who would ever do that when trying to protect a lead...how could he possibly have thought Lallana would outscore Sane by 5 or more points :!:

I note also that the top player hadn't been in the top 10k in the previous 4 years and 2nd place hadn't been in the top 50k in the last 4 years. Says it all really.
Apparently the guy who won it Ben Crabtree(the Everton fan) hadn't gotten a Liverpool player in his team all season, so I'm guessing the guy in second probably knew this and guessed that he wouldn't have brought in the Liverpool players he transfered in. They do seem like strange transfers to make when the title is on the line, so I'm guessing that might have had something to do with it.

That's dedication not bringing in any Liverpool players even though it could cost you the title, lol. Everton should give him a free season ticket for next season.
If anything that makes it even more crazy. He had the lead and took a hit to 1) bring in a differential 2) lose the lead before kickoff. And he kept King even though we knew he was injured hours before the deadline.
Agreed. This was really, really, poor play - accentuated by the knowledge his rival had an anti-liverpool bias so it was even more unnecessary than first met the eye!

User avatar
Ruth_NZ
Grumpy Old Gorilla
Posts: 9156
Joined: 25 May 2015, 22:46

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Ruth_NZ »

triggerlips wrote:Interesting read guys, should have visited here more often, makes a change to see some intelligent debate with no dick waving going on
You should post here a bit more, Nick. Sharpen the saw and all that. I reckon that doing your blog may have blunted you a bit? It surely has an effect when people are scrutinising your every move. :shock: :?:

User avatar
Ruth_NZ
Grumpy Old Gorilla
Posts: 9156
Joined: 25 May 2015, 22:46

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Finisher1 wrote:Indeed, it's very strange to differentiate your team when your are protecting your lead. Anyway, what a childish policy this "I don't take any Liverpool players". Not something I expect to see from a rational manager.
Actually I don't think it necessarily is strange. Not when the gap is that small.

For example, say that 10 players are the same in each team and the gap is a couple of points. So it comes down to 1 player in each team and if your opponent's player gets one assist more then you are sunk.

If there are 6 players the same and 5 different then you aren't dependent on one player alone. And if you feel your 5 are better than his 5 then you will probably feel more confident than a 1 against 1 when both players have good potential. So it comes down to risk/luck management maybe.

I guess what I am saying, essentially, is that 2 points is a lead you can't protect. You have to go for points. Protecting a lead (in my view) becomes valid when you are some distance ahead (maybe 12 points going into GW38 or 30 points going into DGW37). Then you have enough of a buffer to block your opponent knowing that he has a lot of points to make up with only 1 or 2 differentials.
bigcliff2 wrote:Without offence to any sensible Everton fans on here, "rational" isn't a word you associate with a lot of them when it comes to Liverpool.
"Rabid"? :mrgreen: :lol:

User avatar
The Catman
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 4415
Joined: 27 Jun 2013, 13:30
FS Record: Winner 2013 TFC T20 wickets league; Winner 2012 F1 Fantasyracers.com. Winner Mirror FF Free League 2014/15. 6th TFC T20 runs 2016.

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by The Catman »

Mr Clarinet wrote:It turns out FPL managers aren't the only ones who think about skill vs luck. There was a 'personal finance' programme on the radio last night, with a discussion that included consideration of the relative merits of tracker funds and actively managed funds (the point being that the latter have higher fees in order to pay for the active management, but then you - supposedly - benefit in terms of performance - as financial returns - from the active management). So your choice should depend on the (future) performance of the active fund manager, which you have to predict from past performance. Thus the issue was raised as to how much data was needed to be able to determine whether an active fund manager's observed results were skilful or lucky; and the answer, apparently, is at least 22-years-worth.
Interesting.

There is a lot that goes unsaid about financial investment.

For instance a fund manager may advertise saying it has been "above average in two of the last three years".

Now, just think about that ......four years ago it must have been below average (or it would have said three out of four etc), so it is only above average half the time.

btw I did beat Ville this year 8-) 8-) 8-)

User avatar
matmutte
FISOhead
Posts: 681
Joined: 04 Nov 2009, 15:51

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by matmutte »

Last year's FPL winner finished this season at 1,031,214 rank. Is there a better example of extreme luck and badluck in 2 years time ? ;-)

triggerlips
Kevin and Perry
Posts: 20
Joined: 17 Aug 2010, 06:36

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by triggerlips »

Ruth_NZ wrote:
triggerlips wrote:Interesting read guys, should have visited here more often, makes a change to see some intelligent debate with no dick waving going on
You should post here a bit more, Nick. Sharpen the saw and all that. I reckon that doing your blog may have blunted you a bit? It surely has an effect when people are scrutinising your every move. :shock: :?:
Maybe, I have felt a little bored with it at times this season, it has been dumbed down a little too much for my liking, and the partnership between FPL and scout has been bad for managers that like to think things through for themselves. If their sheep picks do well it makes it difficult.
I have been enjoying my Fantasy baseball much more than the football tbh, has more depth.

The dick waving and gladitorial aspect of FPL I also find very annoying. Not a day does by that some halfwit sends me a message to gloat he has a better rank than I do. It is pathetic really, but that is the Fantasy scout mentality that seems to permeate this hobby. I know you have been victim of it yourself, put ideas out there and it is like putting a target on your head.

User avatar
Kuchi
FISOhead
Posts: 575
Joined: 24 May 2017, 11:35
Location: London
FS Record: Best: 16/17- 481

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Kuchi »

Exactly why I will spending more time here from now on than FFS. Even with all the spoonfeeding people will never be able to do the same thing us "hardcore" people do. People need to make decisions based on their own situation. If they just make a "crowd" decision it will not really benefit them. If they get off to a solid start then ok I will admit this is a different story entirely.

triggerlips
Kevin and Perry
Posts: 20
Joined: 17 Aug 2010, 06:36

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by triggerlips »

Ronke was way ahead in the Hall of fame at the beginning of the season, yet one finish outside the top 20k which was not even particularly bad and he is now not even in the top Ten.
Seems to me that Nobody is going to be able to maintain a stay at the top for any length of time. Unlike Chess where the world champion might last Ten or more years. There are now hundreds of managers all with a small difference between them, all know how to play the game, and it is now going to come down to the run of the ball.
I was second for Two or three seasons on the trot, yet have now flown out of the top 100 as have many who were up there during my time near the top. It is now going to be come even more volatile, as the game is pretty much learnt now, and the amount of information that is available to anyone levels the playing field.

User avatar
Carlos Kickaball
Dumbledore
Posts: 7801
Joined: 04 Sep 2013, 18:02

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

+1 TL

That is the core of what I have been saying about Ville and his record. It is pretty much spot on, though saying it's run of the ball between competent managers was often perverted into saying it was all luck. I'm glad that you have acknowledged this.

https://whichtransfer.wordpress.com/201 ... statistic/
triggerlips wrote: I have just read through an interesting discussion on the FISO forums on the role of luck in Fantasy football. Some even maintaining that even those at the top of the FFS hall of fame are just lucky.

The theory is that with three million players, statistically it is to be expected that a handful of players would have had good luck for as many as five seasons on the trot. 200 odd Gameweeks isnt enough time for luck to even out. Poker studies show it can take a 1000 or more hands before a true statistical measure of skill can be made.

According to this theory the game is simple enough that these lucky players, once they gain a good rank, put more effort in, seek out information from places like this blog and are thus able to maintain a good rank given their extra slice of luck. This theory also explains why many who read all the articles at FFS and do things properly do not receive a good rank, they have simply been unlucky.

Those at the top of the hall of fame, have merely been more lucky than their contemporaries, and there is no point studying or learning from them as they know no more than the average player.
Carlos Kickaball wrote:Hi Triggerlips,

I just noticed this article, and as someone who’s argument has been characterised as it’s just luck, I think you are missing the subtleties of what was actually said to make somewhat of any easy argument to push over. You talk as if luck and skill are mutually exclusive, or that having any sort of luck would make you less good, which is of course nonsense. Almost everyone agrees that the players with the best FPL records are amongst the best in the game.

Specifically what my point was, is that someone with a record as good as Ville Rönkä’s (or even yours) in a game which has a component of luck, is likely to not only be from a skilful manager, but also a fortunate one. That is simple, indeed it’s pretty elementary, if luck and skill are both involved in performance then the top performers are both skilful and lucky.

Thanks,

Carlos.

User avatar
Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3210
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09
FS Record: Maybe all is not lost after all

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Archy »

Good summary CK

We seem to have seen a shift in views following Ville's bad end to the season.

All that's needed is to substitute the word 'luck' for a euphemism like 'things not going your way' or 'not getting the run of the bal' and it seems most people now agree with what we've been saying all along.

hancockjr
Dumbledore
Posts: 7976
Joined: 17 Aug 2006, 21:24
FS Record: FPL: Not as good as it was, but still very respectable.

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by hancockjr »

Archy wrote:Good summary CK

We seem to have seen a shift in views following Ville's bad end to the season.

All that's needed is to substitute the word 'luck' for a euphemism like 'things not going your way' or 'not getting the run of the bal' and it seems most people now agree with what we've been saying all along.
Your misrepresenting pretty much everyone, presumably on purpose. It's not a very productive thing to do and the sort of reason why people will drift from FISO. Sad really.

User avatar
Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3210
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09
FS Record: Maybe all is not lost after all

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Archy »

What I had to say to that is best left unsaid.
Last edited by Archy on 28 May 2017, 13:13, edited 3 times in total.

User avatar
Tacalabala
FISO Knight
Posts: 19010
Joined: 07 Sep 2008, 01:03

Re: Ville Rönkä is lucky, isn't he?

Post by Tacalabala »

Archy wrote:Good summary CK

We seem to have seen a shift in views following Ville's bad end to the season.

All that's needed is to substitute the word 'luck' for a euphemism like 'things not going your way' or 'not getting the run of the bal' and it seems most people now agree with what we've been saying all along.
That's not quite right.

Luck would be something like Kane :arrow: Llorente, Kane blanks against Burnley and Llorente gets a brace against City.

What we are looking at is the choice between Costa and Aguero when they both have a favourable run of games coming up and both are in reasonable form.

And Ville did make a mistake by not bringing in Kane, I don't think anyone is going to deny that.
Last edited by Tacalabala on 28 May 2017, 21:40, edited 1 time in total.

View Latest: 1 Day View Your posts
Post Reply

Return to “Fantasy PremierLeague.com (FPL)”