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Talking about patience...

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Joccki_10
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Talking about patience...

Post by Joccki_10 »

In Let’s catch up with Ville (viewtopic.php?f=99&t=118963) Stem commented:
Stemania wrote:I lasted till two weeks ago with Costa, Ville certainly out-patienced me.
This and Hazard’s nine-pointer tonight made me think about my own patience. I could recall three important Premier League players this season (that is an understatement) who have done great in FPL aspect in times I didn’t own them.

To be known as: Alexis Sánchez, Harry Kane and Eden Hazard. I did a little research and could eventually confirm what I already expected.
________Alexis SánchezAs an ownerAs a non-owner
Total games311516
Total mins2.6241.3151.309
Total points21089121
Points per game6.775.937.56
Points per 90 mins7.206.098.32
________Harry KaneAs an ownerAs a non-owner
Total games24420
Total mins1.9953391.656
Total points16519146
Points per game6.884.757.30
Points per 90 mins7.445.047.93
________Eden HazardAs an ownerAs a non-owner
Total games31247
Total mins2.5962.001595
Total points20214755
Points per game6.526.137.86
Points per 90 mins7.006.618.32
There is significant difference between these numbers.

Is there anyone who has experienced the same thing with the same players? Or something like this with different players? ;)

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Re: Talking about patience...

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Joccki_10 wrote:
Is there anyone who has experienced the same thing with the same players? Or something like this with different players? ;)
Very interesting. Without doing the Maths - I know that I have done the same with Hazard and probably Sanchez. I have one or the other (but not both from what I can remember) pretty much the whole season but have struggled to be on the correct one at the right time. I would certainly have done better if I had stuck with one or the other rather than hopping between them.

Kane I have done a lot better with.

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Re: Talking about patience...

Post by Paulista »

I don't think Ville has intentionally been patient with Costa, I just think he's a set and a forget option (especially when Kane was injured and Ibra suspended) and he's had to put out fires elsewhere.

Costa had a small blip weeks 29-31 but before and after that he's been delivering steady returns.

I've had him since way back in GW4 but again I wouldn't say I've been intentionally patient, he just never goes too long without returns. I chose him early doors ahead of Hazard, and never looked back.

Maybe with premium picks it's advisable to lower ones patience level.

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Re: Talking about patience...

Post by Kevlar »

As an exercise in potentially rubbing salt in the wound, who did you replace them with and how did they do?

I'm sure I've suffered in the same way with various Liverpool players (Firmino, Coutinho).

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Re: Talking about patience...

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

It would be interesting to know if anyone has done any research on this, but I suspect that the premium players fallow periods tend, on average, to be shorter than the lesser players. So, for instance. Sanchez has not gone more than 3 consecutive games without a 5 pt haul, Hazard had one 4 game run (I think I dropped him after the 4th!).

Costa is remarkable in that prior to GW29 his longest run of consecutive games without scoring at least 5 points (ignoring games when he didn't play) was 1. I haven't got any historical data but I suspect that this is unprecedented. Between GW29 and this week he blanked 4 games out of 5, but after yesterday's haul he still averages virtually 5 points a game over the last 6 games.

I've not been a close follower of Ville but from what I know of him, I suspect he hasn't even thought about replacing him.

What I forget again and again is that form is temporary but class is permanent.

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Re: Talking about patience...

Post by Stemania »

Joccki_10 wrote: Is there anyone who has experienced the same thing with the same players? Or something like this with different players? ;)
Yep, it feels like it happens quite often (though I'd guess it's just a case of not noticing/not putting it down to good fortune when the opposite happens). :mrgreen:

For example, I expertly managed to own Vardy last season for only 6 games, and he didn't score in any of them (in a season where he scored most games and broke the record for consecutive goals). What a pro. Also coming to mind are the likes of Yaya and Ramsey from seasons past. :oops:

Perhaps it's to be expected because some of our transfers will be made after the new information of (perhaps a run of) stellar performances by big guns, when we've by definition missed a big haul. Although for sure many other transfers will be made more pre-emptively. :)

On some occasions I find that the aggressive price change system makes it tough to be patient. If two players don't feel that far apart, one is rising (and scoring) and one is dropping like a stone (and isn't scoring), it's incredibly difficult not to make the switch. Otherwise, add together a few 0.5m swings of that kind and your TV/buying power in both the short term and towards the end of the season could be very different. :(

Usually I'll have had a stencilled plan my next 2 or 3 or more transfers, or have players that I expect to want in a few weeks time (say for a start of a run of good fixtures). If any impending price changes will scupper that I often feel obliged to throw patience out the window to make sure my plans are still viable. It's a bit of a balancing act between judgement and pragmatism. :)

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Re: Talking about patience...

Post by Joccki_10 »

Kevlar wrote:As an exercise in potentially rubbing salt in the wound, who did you replace them with and how did they do?
I actually do have quite a good example of myself losing patience.

In gameweek 18 I decided to get rid of Kane after his barren run of two-pointers in games against United, Hull and Burnley. I brought Ibrahimovic in instead, who was in the same price bracket -even a little more expensive- what indicates there were no other circumstances.

I held Ibra for ten gameweeks and sold him when he got suspended after the home game against Bournemouth. Accidentally Kane got himself injured in a cup game and both were unavailable for GW28, so I probably would've replaced either of them with Lukaku.

From gameweek 18 up to and including gameweek 27 Ibrahimovic got 49 points. Kane got 86. :shock:

If I had just kept faith in Kane, I would have been 37 points (!) better off. Not to mention it required a hit at the time.

Add those 37 points to my overall points and I would have had 2,047 points. Only 82 points below the no. 1 in the world earning me an overall rank of 80 (currently). :roll:

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Re: Talking about patience...

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Joccki_10 wrote:
Kevlar wrote:As an exercise in potentially rubbing salt in the wound, who did you replace them with and how did they do?
I actually do have quite a good example of myself losing patience.

In gameweek 18 I decided to get rid of Kane after his barren run of two-pointers in games against United, Hull and Burnley. I brought Ibrahimovic in instead, who was in the same price bracket -even a little more expensive- what indicates there were no other circumstances.

I held Ibra for ten gameweeks and sold him when he got suspended after the home game against Bournemouth. Accidentally Kane got himself injured in a cup game and both were unavailable for GW28, so I probably would've replaced either of them with Lukaku.

From gameweek 18 up to and including gameweek 27 Ibrahimovic got 49 points. Kane got 86. :shock:

If I had just kept faith in Kane, I would have been 37 points (!) better off. Not to mention it required a hit at the time.

Add those 37 points to my overall points and I would have had 2,047 points. Only 82 points below the no. 1 in the world earning me an overall rank of 80 (currently). :roll:
That's a bummer. I was thinking of Kane earlier and how many got rid of him after the Hull and Burnley blanks.

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Re: Talking about patience...

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Paulista wrote:I don't think Ville has intentionally been patient with Costa, I just think he's a set and a forget option.
I don't know about VR (and I don't accept him as any definitive benchmark to be honest) but I think this is a very good comment. The 'set and forget' player is invaluable in FPL because of the reduced need for FTs and especially hits. Essentially that means getting a player for their points over, say, 10 games rather than their points over, say, 3 games.

To do that you have to be confident in a player and their team. So patience isn't the word really; it's more about using a longer-term perspective rather than a shorter-term (knee-jerky) one. Hazard has been brilliant all season and I have essentially had the view that the points will come when he's playing like that, they always have done before. But I'd have been ill-advised to exercise the same "patience" with Hazard last season because neither he nor his team were playing well at all, in fact Chelsea spent half a season at least in some kind of meltdown and Hazard was no exception. PB told me I was a "Hazard fanboy" and he's absolutely right; I am when Hazard is playing so well. But if I don't nevertheless exercise some objectivity about him then I'll never be a good FPL manager. :wink:

Sanchez is a similar case. He was pretty essential when playing OOP #9; removing him in GW13 when I thought he may be injured was my biggest single mistake of the season, I had to take 2 hits to get him back 2 weeks later having missed 37 points (I think it was) in the 2 weeks I was without him. But removing him in GW26 (when he had a blank) and not getting him back ever since has been a good call; this time Arsenal have been in meltdown (it may be turning now) and he has less threat at #11 anyway.

So, I don't think a rule or formula can be extracted here. You have to assess circumstances; it is important not to assume that Hazard is Hazard or Aguero is Aguero because that's misleading; players are affected by their teams, by positional changes, by psychological and physiological factors and you have to try to read those. That's why knowing a team well can really help; I generally do very well with Chelsea players because I watch them a fair bit live and can read subtle changes, trends, body language and so on that most others (and often stats tables too) will miss. I also factor psychology into my decision-making and I believe that helps me (although I know some others consider that to be subjective nonsense). But I make a lot of mistakes with Kane; I don't have the records but I have a long, long history of captaining him when he fails, not captaining him when he hauls, taking him out of my team just before he gets lots of points and bringing him in just before he doesn't. :roll: :lol: Perhaps it's just that I don't know Spurs as well. :?
Aldershot Rejects wrote:It would be interesting to know if anyone has done any research on this, but I suspect that the premium players fallow periods tend, on average, to be shorter than the lesser players.
Well, they are premium players for a reason (well, mostly; there's always Sturridge to confound any generalisation!). But "fallow" runs isn't the measure really, is it? You are talking about total points over a run of games (PPG) while in your team and whether (captaincy aside) that represents value. Last season Aguero scored once in his first 7 PL games (including 5 consecutive blanks); he then scored 5 in his 8th PL game against Newcastle. Could you have predicted that? Actually maybe you could (not the huge haul but the return to form) because the haul came on 3rd October after Aguero had scored in the C1C (22/9) and CL (30/9). The signs of a return to goalscoring form were there, they just hadn't arrived yet in the PL.

If we can get beyond the "who's right, who's wrong" mindset (see, look, Costa just scored twice, that proves VR was clever to keep him) then this is a very important subject within FPL. The key premiums are hugely influential in the game and anything that can provide an edge about when to get them, when to hold them and when to lose them can help enormously. I started on this in my RMT when I was making notes about "what makes a player essential" but I never completed that survey. Maybe it's something I should return to at some stage. But it's an important development area (and discussion point) in any case.
Stemania wrote:Perhaps it's to be expected because some of our transfers will be made after the new information of (perhaps a run of) stellar performances by big guns, when we've by definition missed a big haul. Although for sure many other transfers will be made more pre-emptively. :)

On some occasions I find that the aggressive price change system makes it tough to be patient. If two players don't feel that far apart, one is rising (and scoring) and one is dropping like a stone (and isn't scoring), it's incredibly difficult not to make the switch. Otherwise, add together a few 0.5m swings of that kind and your TV/buying power in both the short term and towards the end of the season could be very different. :( If any impending price changes will scupper that I often feel obliged to throw patience out the window to make sure my plans are still viable. It's a bit of a balancing act between judgement and pragmatism. :)
Also all very true. So now we have to work on our own psychology as well as reading the runes about a player. The price change mechanism is a big one in that regard. One top 200 player I know of got Zlatan in early last week to catch the impending price rise (which didn't happen). He had a TV over 108m so surely didn't need to worry about that but it can become almost a reflex if you aren't careful. And then, of course, Zlatan got injured and had to be removed for a hit. I see 3 questionable decisions in succession there; (1) getting Zlatan at all; (2) getting him early when the Anderlecht game could easily be 120 minutes (and was) and materially affected the chance of Zlatan playing against Burnley; (3) replacing him with Rashford (which seems akin to the frying pan to the fire to me; doubtless Rashford will now do well on Thursday to make me wrong). Although the Rashford switch could perhaps be seen as a high-risk, high-upside punt for someone who'll wildcard the following week.

I know it's not the done thing to suggest that highly ranked managers are influenced by the FFS herd mechanism but I truly think that many of them are. There's a lot of fear of making an unique mistake or missing out on the smart move that goes on. That's a different subject, perhaps, but the part about our self-control in the face of price movements or popular bandwagons does factor into this discussion I think.

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Re: Talking about patience...

Post by Billy Bongo »

I've kept Costa not because I'm a better genius than Ronka, i am obviously, but because there have been so many injurys recently I've had other issues, same with Ronka i suspect.

Sent from mobile

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Re: Talking about patience...

Post by carver »

I only got 4.3 ppg out of Hazard when I owned him... :x :x :x

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Re: Talking about patience...

Post by matmutte »

I sold him this week for Negredo. He's been crap for the time i owned him (last 5-6 weeks) both FPL wise and in real life. However i knew beforehand that it was very risky removing him before a home game. So in my case i won't say its bad luck, but for Costa to score his biggest haul of the season while playing shit right when you sell him is a worst case scenario.

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Re: Talking about patience...

Post by Tacalabala »

I got rid of Berbatov the night before he scored 4.

I can't at the moment, but it would be interesting to see what the fixtures were during the bright and dark periods - is it the case that actually these big names play up when faced with tougher opposition, but we lose tend to rid after a low scoring run against lesser opposition.

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Re: Talking about patience...

Post by Joccki_10 »

Tacalabala wrote:I can't at the moment, but it would be interesting to see what the fixtures were during the bright and dark periods - is it the case that actually these big names play up when faced with tougher opposition, but we lose tend to rid after a low scoring run against lesser opposition.
I think that's mostly the case.

I got rid of Hazard after gameweek 22. In his list six games before that particular week he scored once and assisted twice in games against Palace, Bournemouth, Stoke, Spurs, Leicester and Hull. In those six games Chelsea managed to score 13.

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Re: Talking about patience...

Post by Stemania »

I doubt it's more than "we often sell in a trough and we often buy on a peak" to be honest. In both cases the player involved is likely to return to the middle regression-al ground.

Over a long period of time I think it's fair to say all attacking players will score better against poorer defenses.

Perhaps sometimes we have a tendency to simply misjudge what a 'good/poor' defence is. For example, it's easy for us to class, say, Liverpool (3rd) as a 'good team/tougher opposition' and Boro (19th) a 'poor team' and judge fixtures broadly by that, but in reality there's only a one-goal-conceded difference all season between those two teams.

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Re: Talking about patience...

Post by Joccki_10 »

This Hazard kid really keeps on giving when I do own him. :(

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Re: Talking about patience...

Post by Stemania »

Joccki_10 wrote:This Hazard kid really keeps on giving when I do own him. :(
Just have to laugh at times like this. Chelsea have scored 8 in GW36/37 since the wildard, Hazard's played all three games and come away with six appearance points and two for clean sheets. And now he probably gets rested for GW38. :lol:

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Talking about patience...

Post by Joccki_10 »

Stemania wrote:
Joccki_10 wrote:This Hazard kid really keeps on giving when I do own him. :(
Just have to laugh at times like this. Chelsea have scored 8 in GW36/37 since the wildard, Hazard's played all three games and come away with six appearance points and two for clean sheets. And now he probably gets rested for GW38. :lol:
That's the beauty of this game. If I sell him, he'll play. If I don't, he'll get a cameo for sure.

At least Alonso and Costa are safe. Ri.., right? :roll:

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