The Secrets of Ville Ronka's success

[MGPT]

So this year I've followed VR's team for the first time, having a quick look after each gameweek and trying to get a feel for his strategy.

I've been absolutely amazed by just how ordinary his team has been at virtually every point of the season and yet he is poised perfectly at 8k and no doubt in course for another elite finish.

For the life of me I cannot work out how he's done it. He doesn't seem to have nailed many big decisions, has missed numerous popular hauls, has average team value and never had much of a backline. I know safe captaincy picks, late trades and very few hits is popular with the old school players but this year the active transfer market and volume of red hot big hitters has seen guys like Mark Sutherns do well with a very aggressive approach while dullard triggerlips is going fairly poorly by his standards and constantly whining about the price changes. Yet VR continues to be ultra conservative and is simply cruising.

Are we all overcomplicating things? I have this mental image of him where he occasionally browses FFS and just laughs at the over analysis and sheer mania of all the enthusiasts.

Would love to hear theories and thoughts on why he does so well. I am about to start the Aussie Rules fantasy season and wondering if I can incorporate some of his gameplay into this particular format.

P.s. I know there is the big thread in the RMT section about VR but I didn't want to bomb it with this post.

[hayesag]

I have this mental image of him where he occasionally browses FFS and just laughs at the over analysis and sheer mania of all the enthusiasts.

exactly this either that or he's the luckiest fpl player ever

[Finisher1]

I know safe captaincy picks, late trades and very few hits is popular with the old school players but this year the active transfer market and volume of red hot big hitters has seen guys like Mark Sutherns do well with a very aggressive approach while dullard triggerlips is going fairly poorly by his standards and constantly whining about the price changes.

I think triggerlips is clearly struggling to adapt into new dynamics of the game. This season and the last one have been really poor by him, I don't think he is one of the greatest anymore.

exactly this either that or he's the luckiest fpl player ever

The truth is Ville has been very lucky this season. There's no way anyone can deny that. I appreciate his track record and think he is one of the greatest, but he has simply been very lucky this season (in addition to playing decently of course).

[thebillfella]

Isn't there already a thread for this?!!!

viewtopic.php?f=99&t=118963&p=3029961#p3029961

[Striker]

Bill - the opening poster did recognise the other thread and there is a case for a thread specifically identifying why VR consistently does well rather than a debate between some who seem to worship him and others who criticise him and overstate how lucky he is. That debate between two wings of thought with little centre ground debate is the main reason why I rarely read the other thread.

It seems to me that being conservative is essential for long term fantasy success, what needs to be identified is what are the other strands of VR's long term success bearing in mind that in the long term luck tends to even out, and therefore isn't a factor.

Luck is a major factor in success over say a couple of months, and is usually the key factor determining which of several key contenders actually wins a national competition, but it should be ignored in the long run. So anyone who claims that luck is a major factor in VR's long term success isn't worth listening to.

[Finisher1]

Luck is a major factor in success over say a couple of months, and is usually the key factor determining which of several key contenders actually wins a national competition, but it should be ignored in the long run. So anyone who claims that luck is a major factor in VR's long term success isn't worth listening to.

First we must define short term and long term. I think one season is definitely a short term - we all know one FPL decision may include a massive point swing, and there is no way these swings even out during one season. Hence, the luck difference during one season is massive - some managers are a way more luckier than others.

I agree Ville's track record from several seasons proves he is one of the greatest in long term - but I also think in short term (this season) he has been very lucky, in fact the luckiest manager of those I have followed this season. And I have followed many.

[Turd Ferguson]

I agree Ville's track record from several seasons proves he is one of the greatest in long term - but I also think in short term (this season) he has been very lucky, in fact the luckiest manager of those I have followed this season. And I have followed many.

Can you give some examples? Perhaps we're just not as good at identifying the expected outcomes as we think, so what we think is luck is actually patience and a wise appreciation for the fact that even bad fixtures can produce points and that form is often temporary.

I don't follow Ville, but I'm in my 3rd season of FPL and one of my great weaknesses is trying to overoptimize my team and find differentials. I often try to hop off defenders because they have two tough away games in their next three, or something along those lines. Then the defender scores a set piece or the team keeps a surprise clean sheet, and that transfer that I could have used to cover a future injury or get in the best premium gets wasted. And even if it does work out, what do I get? Maybe one or two extra clean sheets for a total of 8 points. Not much upside.

One thing I'm going to try to focus on next year is that we only get 1 transfer per week. There's almost always 7 or 8 transfers you could make to optimize your team, but focusing on that one single transfer that improves your team in the long run each week is what needs to get your focus. That often means focusing on the premiums and which mid-price options are going to get you hauls, rather than nibbling around the edges with your 3rd defender or 4th midfielder.

[Finisher1]

For example he got a massive point streak by Kane only because Costa got injured exactly at the right time. He also sold Ibra instead of Kane probably because he was 0.2m short of the preferred transfer - only a speculation, but many people here agree with me. We all know how that transfer panned out anyway.

Just a couple of examples.

[Paulista]

The secrets of Ville Ronka's success?

Tom Heaton and Gareth McAuley.

[Archy]

I think a key point not fully appreciated is this is not a matter of black and white. It is not necessarily a case of whether RV has been skilful OR lucky; he has almost certainly been skilful AND lucky.

We have analysed his play over a reasonable length of time and seen how he plays. He is good, very good, I don’t see anybody disputing that.

But is what he does exceptionally insightful? Inspirational? Genius?

For me, the answers to these questions are an emphatic no. My personal feeling is he plays the game very effectively, but this style is not unique and nor is it particularly hard to replicate. I think there are probably several hundred managers in the game, maybe more, who can play at a similar skill level.

We have hand-picked the best record in the entire game and seen there is nothing particularly outstanding about his play. I find it strange that people think that luck can’t possibly have been a factor in him rising to have the best record of over 3 million.

We have seen evidence of some good fortune this season and there is every possibility he’s had a degree good fortune in previous seasons also. This doesn’t mean he’s done well because of luck, but equally no-one can say he’s had no luck along the way either. To claim he’s come top of 3 million+ and hasn’t enjoyed more luck than other skilled players seems to me a highly unlikely proposition.

[Beerfuelledman]

It might be more beneficial to focus on what he does skilfully than argue over luck, lack of luck and the effect of luck... ?

[I Am Ville]

He is The GOAT.

I put it down to patience and planning and playing the %'s. He takes very few, if any risks and just steadily works his way up the rankings. No dramas.

GOAT

[I Am Ville]

Don't under estimate the level of planning he goes into and how far ahead he thinks. He plans on a strategic level across the season as a whole and 95 times out of 100 makes the right call.

[maddocio]

Ah this old chestnut, thought I'd come out of Fiso retirement to give (i.e. repeat) my observations on this discussion.

I have a decent level of expertise in a few areas, examples being

i) Physical sciences - First degree from University of Cambridge, Masters with Distinction from University of East Anglia

ii) Chess - County standard, played board 2 for College at Cambridge

iii) Gambling - make a clear but not great profit on flat racing and a marginal profit on football

iv) FPL - check the record on the tab, it's good but not great (and would be better if I hadn't played way, way too much World of Warcraft for 18 months lol)

On the first three I am absolutely clear that there are people who have a higher level of expertise and simply see things that I don't - Stephen Hawking, Magnus Carlsen, JP McManus or any other successful professional gambler being obvious examples

I would equally contend that Ville Ronka has a higher level of expertise than me at FPL (bloody obvious) but I would also contend, given his absolutely stellar record over the course of nine (9!) FPL seasons, that in the course of his deliberations he simply sees things that I don't and uses this to gain an advantage. There are acknowledged experts in most areas who have an enhanced level of vision - why should FPL be any different?

[BobMem]

i) Physical sciences - First degree from University of Cambridge, Masters with Distinction from University of East Anglia

What a come down

[maddocio]

i) Physical sciences - First degree from University of Cambridge, Masters with Distinction from University of East Anglia

What a come down

Not really the course had been running for 15 years and I was the first ever distinction and it became a 5 star research department while I was there (latter not due to me)

[Pirlo's Beard]

iv) FPL - check the record on the tab, it's good but not great (and would be better if I hadn't played way, way too much World of Warcraft for 18 months lol)

Might need to update the ol' tab there, maddocio.

[Oxford NZ]

iv) FPL - check the record on the tab, it's good but not great (and would be better if I hadn't played way, way too much World of Warcraft for 18 months lol)

Might need to update the ol' tab there, maddocio.

Try this -
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/25505/history

[Fuzzy]

To the OP - if looking to adapt VR "secrets" to Aussie Rules fantasy, you need to recognise the fundamental differences between the games.

In ARF you have a fixed number of transfers to use over a season, and price changes are performance based rather than transfer volume based.

So, beyond "be patient", "value every transfer", and "soak up information, and filter according to your own criteria and plan", I'm not sure there is much you can transpose.

[MoSe]

thought I'd come out of Fiso retirement

search.php?author_id=10102&sr=posts
I thought, 16 mar - 21 mar retirement? it was a week ago... 1 week and 1 year! 2016 -2017 lol
nice to read you again
___

iv) FPL - check the record on the tab

Might need to update the ol' tab there, maddocio.

Try this - https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/25505/history

is that correct? (you've been hit by updating the ID only, instead of copying the whole URL in its new format, alas a common mistake this season... )
by the maddocio-sounding manager name I'd say yes

if you took care to share the team link here and update it... ever fancied to join the Forum League as well? viewtopic.php?f=82&t=121329
I see you didn't in past two seasons either... you'd be 113th now there, 1 place behind the great spiderm4tt (same pts, more transfers)

[MoSe]

Bill - the opening poster did recognise the other thread and there is a case for a thread specifically identifying why VR consistently does well rather than a debate between some who seem to worship him and others who criticise him and overstate how lucky he is.
That debate between two wings of thought with little centre ground debate is the main reason why I rarely read the other thread.

I hadn't been following that RMT thread closely either, but I thought it started indeed with the exact purpose you stated, to analyse GW by GW VR's style of play to understand what made him successful.

you should check it from its OP viewtopic.php?f=99&t=118963

Last year, in the FPL genius thread, we did a week by week analysis of the moves of Ville Ronka [...]
Some people found that interesting so I thought it might be good to do it again.
[...]
I would stress however that I'm not looking for this thread to rehash luck vs skill debates. It's simply an analysis of FPLs top ranked player.

Actually, I thought the "FPL genius" thread indeed, in this same forum viewtopic.php?f=18&t=113861
was the one where the skill vs luck debate started and got swamped by a VR fans vs dissers fight

• I myself contributed there with a few "factual" posts, i.e. by simply charting his season record vs other succesful players, to imply that
  - by sesason results alone, I thought you can say he is "one of the best", but other players had comparable streaks of excellent if not better results over a 4 or 5 seasons spans.
  - That his oustanding longevity should be just a sign of a prolonged commitment over others equally skilled but who took the pedal off after some seasons at the top.
  - And that it would have been more interesting to analyse *how* he played and got those results, rather than just ranking them in a HoF
  (which for how scientific and accurate its approach is, it's influenced by inevitably arbitrary choices about the metric and the time-related weighing coefficient(s) )

I hadn't read thoroughly all 30 pages of that "FPL genius" thread, I hadn't even realised it contained a week by week analysis, except for a few scattered posts by TD himself. ...Unless it was already a (mod-driven?) spin-off itself of another GWbyGW topic which had started before I joined Fiso

Frankly, quickly reviewing last pages of the RMT thread, it looks to me to be keeping on its week by week and move by move analysis purpose.
It did veer off sometimes more on the Hof and skill/luck debate, but I guess it got brought back on topic after a while.
Of course it's inevitable that in analysing VR's moves, occasional references to his luck will be dropped by to reinforce the poster-side PoV, after all such debate was a "fil rouge" in this forum even before I joined it! - I don't think this topic would be immune from it either

So, in summary,
I don't agree there was really a case for this as you stated, as that other thread started exactly with the purpose you'd wish, and if you think it got corrupted, that would happen to this one as well.
Unless you intend this one should only summarise the WHY, as per MGPT OP, i.e. extract VR's macro-strategies, whilst the RMT thread keeps on micro-analysing the HOW week by week. BTW, you can't have the former without the latter, so this topic wouldn't be "in place" of the other, but rather a "front-end" to present info gathered from the "core" other one...

[Striker]

You're probably right, all that I can say is that whenever I've dipped into the other thread I usually saw the luck argument being redebated.

However from what I have read, no one has yet managed to establish the reasons for VR's success, apart from the fact that he plays conservatively, which is always an essential ingredient of fantasy success. Although I've never looked at his team, if I had to guess, I'd say a conservative approach allied to better judgement than most other managers. But that limited statement totally fails to provide any lessons for other managers hoping to learn from his success.

One factor which I haven't seen raised, although no doubt it has been somewhere, is the very small margin that exists between being a successful and an average manager. At any point in the season the teams of those two managers will often be remarkably similar. So simply playing steadily week after week might be the key ingredient. Possibly the attention of many managers, even those who play enthusiastically, varies. At times they really think about their teams but at other times just give them cursory attention whereas long term success due to the small margins between success and mediocrity necessitates consistent attention.

[Archy]

I believe I did have a go at identifying RV's key attributes in a thread somewhere but will do so more expansively now.

- He's conservative: rarely takes hits or takes risky punts

- Plans for the future: E.g. buying DGW players well before they have a DGW

- Doesn’t seem interested in Team Value - will generally wait until the end of the week to make transfers and won’t jump on to bandwagons just because they are bandwagons either.

- Doesn’t waste transfers by shifting defenders in or out.

- Once selected, he will generally stick with a player over a period of time rather than make knee-jerk transfers in/out. This long-term view is important. If you’ve analysed all the information and made a decision to buy a player one week, they don’t suddenly become a bad pick 2 weeks later because they’ve had a dry spell.

- Given all the above, we can deduce he is excellent at assessing the Value For Money of a player and making an intuitive judgement of his future points potential. This is especially important as he doesn’t build high team value and therefore can’t splash cash around like many other managers. He has less options than other managers may have (becsause of restrained budget), but will manage to pick a strong option nevertheless.

It is this ability to absorb all data on historic performance, future fixtures, form and price and make a sound judgement which is his key skill. This is a somewhat intangible trait, but sound intuitive decision making is, I believe, the most skilful element of the game. Other managers possess it too. The difficult thing is to harness this skill whilst also maintaining the discipline Ville shows in other areas (most importantly avoiding knee-jerking and maintaining the long term view, which I know are areas I could improve on personally).

Where Ville could improve is an interesting question we shouldn’t shy away from. Personally, I think he could afford to think a little more about team value. At the end of the day, transferring earlier in the week only rarely comes back to bite you. I also think the occasional hit could be incurred to grab someone you want long term at a bargain price. This would enable greater flexibility to cherry pick players later in the season at relatively small (IMO) cost.

[pfc_ivan]

I already posted this in the other VR Thread. But to answer OP's question:

I thought that we were able to pinpoint exactly why he is better:

1. He is extremely patient.
2. He does not go for differentials too often, and plays very conservatively.
3. He does not get frisky with his captain choices.
4. He does not bring in players who aren't nailed on.
5. He does not spend too much in GK & DEF positions, but rather uses his funds in MID & FWD positions. (Which has been proven over the years to be correct approach as points matter at the end, not points/million
6. He usually waits as long as possible to do his transfers, gaining as much information as possible.
7. He almost always has a fully playing bench, thus gaining more points than an average FPL player over the blank/double GWs.
8. Should I keep going or is this enough?

[Striker]

8. Should I keep going or is this enough?

Both the last two posts are really interesting to those of us who've come late to the topic. As regards your last question, - keep going.

[Vincent Black Shadow]

He is the equivalent of a boxer or footballer with very strong fundamentals - he doesn't do anything spectacular, but he doesn't make stupid mistakes or bad decisions. I was above him until gw19 (we were both just outside the top 100k, he was at 135, I was at 105)

I had a few injuries to my team, so decided to WC for gw20. Palace were playing Swansea who were abysmal at the time, had a horrendous record of conceding headed goals, so I thought this is my chance to make up some real ground, got Benteke in, as well as Dan.

My frontline went from Ibra - Lukaku - Costa

To

Benteke - Rondon - Aguero

(WBA were playing Hull)

All of the gambles failed

I basically was doing well, then loaded up my team for a 1 week punt for some strange reason, and from there I've been chasing him ever since (obviously due to the lets catch up with ville thread, he is the barometer by which a lot of people measure our performance)

He is patient, and doesn't make stupid mistakes, he purchases players in good form who are going to rise in ownership, and that's it. If you do that, you generally don't need to go all out on punts with huge upside/downside

He's now like 7k, and Im 70k

[MoSe]

interesting...
Since I'm hosting a tiny-league with Joccki_10 (now 2nd in our Fiso Forum League, OR 772) and Ruth_NZ (12th, and 3.4k),
you gave me the idea to chart his season in one of my usual graphs, adding his data to our three (hope it's not too cluttered)


of course it's the end result which counts, and you can say that he started the season 260k rising to now 8.6k, so he did improve over it

I know that selecting a sub-sample doesn't tell the whole story... but if we lookd at the 18 GWs after GW6 till GW24 (almost half season)
we'd be looking at a team which did NOT improve over half the season, a decent one but not outstanding at all
he was 22k in GW6, again 22k in GW23, and 39k in GW24 - inbetween he see-sawed between those peaks and 100k (and a bit beyond)

hadn't we known about his outstanding record over a decade,
would we hold as benchmark a team who could at best "hold his 20k-100k position" over half a sesaon?
besides, apart two good GW with 10k and 100k GR, in that stint he had 8 GWs around or beyond the 3M GR waterline!

then, "suddenly", with 5 steady GWs, all with rather good GR between 200k and 350k (thus none exceptional), he rose from 39k to 9k

• did he change something in his style in last 5 GWs?
  was his no-better-than-average mid-season management "functional" to his recent leap?
  or does this just show that in this competition you can "coast" mid-group thru most of the race,
  and that you just need to make your top effort in its last third or quarter to emerge at its top?

with 9 GWs to go, he should have no problems attaining the base 4.6k level of his "worst" seasons,
and by his most recent trend even to get his 5th Top1k finish

[Triggy]

interesting...
then, "suddenly", with 5 steady GWs, all with rather good GR between 200k and 350k (thus none exceptional), he rose from 39k to 9k

• did he change something in his style in last 5 GWs?
  was his no-better-than-average mid-season management "functional" to his recent leap?
  or does this just show that in this competition you can "coast" mid-group thru most of the race,
  and that you just need to make your top effort in its last third or quarter to emerge at its top?

with 9 GWs to go, he should have no problems attaining the base 4.6k level of his "worst" seasons,
and by his most recent trend even to get his 5th Top1k finish

I think that by being selective of his "average" performance you are missing the point of how he plays. In general he has very few poor weeks, at least not ones where ground is lost for several weeks in a short space of time. However, if you scatter a few good weeks in there on top of average for the rest of time (just because his good weeks are mainly at the start and third quarter of the season this year, doesn't mean that this isn't statistical clumping).

In general, as Ville doesn't make too many changes, he won't hit the massive weeks as his team is optimised to be good over a longer timeframe. This year, like most others, he doesn't really have a good part of the season other than making best use of blank and double gameweeks.

[Sutter Kane]

Like I mentioned a few weeks ago on the other thread, he rarely if ever gets battered in high scoring weeks. I find myself often get battered in just such weeks and actually have a superior GW by GW H2H vs him and did so last season too, a quite considerable one at that. He still pulverises me at the end. The low risk policy of making sure he has the 'main ones' that can hurt him in a high potential scoring week really pays off in that respect. And I feel he makes this possible in advance, always leaving enough in the bank to cover the angles. Another thing directly linked to this is he'll really try his hardest to keep 2 frees if possible. I think it's an understated tactic for flexibility.

[Sutter Kane]

It feels like I chip away at him 5 points per week for 6 weeks then he smashes me by 40pts. Then it repeats! I would imagine his rankings back this up; his low ones are on low scoring weeks. His high ones are on high scoring weeks. Obviously not all the time, but generally.