Triple captain GW27
- ZeroRemorse
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Re: Triple captain GW27
City have Chelsea Arsenal and United after Sunderland and Stoke. I'm sure Pep is going to want 6 points from them to prepare for his tough run of fixtures. It's now do or die for them. That probably means close to his best 11 in the DGWS.
Can't see him rotating Aguero. He has just hit some form and going into a DGW vs SUN and STK looks as good as it can get.
Also there's just noone to rotate him with realistically.
But as we've learned, trying to second guess Pep is near impossible. But he needs to stick with chemistry and form this time of the season and some continuity.
Can't see him rotating Aguero. He has just hit some form and going into a DGW vs SUN and STK looks as good as it can get.
Also there's just noone to rotate him with realistically.
But as we've learned, trying to second guess Pep is near impossible. But he needs to stick with chemistry and form this time of the season and some continuity.
- Mr Clarinet
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Re: Triple captain GW27
Playing around with my team, looking to fit Kun in with a view to TC... just thought I'd just look back over this season's record. Seems that since GW11 he's only scored in the two games City have played against Burnley! So it's going to be a bit of a leap of faith...
- Bixer
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Re: Triple captain GW27
And so modest tooFinisher1 wrote:Generally I'm a penalty expert so wouldn't be too surprised if I'm right once again.Mav3rick wrote:That he won't.
- Vsz
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Re: Triple captain GW27
I think if Aguero doesn't start on Weds vs Hudd then he's nailed on for the weekend match and then hopefully the midweek one as well.
If he doesn't play vs Hudd I think I'll TC him, especially if City put a few past them.
If he doesn't play vs Hudd I think I'll TC him, especially if City put a few past them.
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Re: Triple captain GW27
Surely the highest risk of an Aguero benching is in the potential Middlesboro game as it is followed by their return clash with Monaco. Given that, and that Aguero hasn't exactly been overworked recently, the chance of two GW 27 starts must be pretty good, irrespective of whether or not he starts against 'uddersfield.
- Vsz
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Re: Triple captain GW27
I think if he starts against Hudd he's unlikely to start both the prem games... (followed by CL match as you say).Striker wrote:Surely the highest risk of an Aguero benching is in the potential Middlesboro game as it is followed by their return clash with Monaco. Given that, and that Aguero hasn't exactly been overworked recently, the chance of two GW 27 starts must be pretty good, irrespective of whether or not he starts against 'uddersfield.
- matmutte
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Re: Triple captain GW27
In all likelyhood Aguero will not play vs Huddersfield and play both league games afterwards. But there is quite some uncertainty. Can you really risk such a valuable chip as the TC one in this situation ? a very tough risk/reward trade off to arbitrate...
- Ruth_NZ
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Re: Triple captain GW27
The answer is a resounding "no" and I don't need to 2nd-guess future DGWs to arrive at that conclusion.
City will be in the middle of a run of 6 games in 18 days. Sunderland and Stoke are not the hardest of those by any means. Pep needs little or no excuse to rotate at the best of times. Aguero could quite conceivably not start both games. End of story, no TC for me.
City will be in the middle of a run of 6 games in 18 days. Sunderland and Stoke are not the hardest of those by any means. Pep needs little or no excuse to rotate at the best of times. Aguero could quite conceivably not start both games. End of story, no TC for me.
Same old, same old. You have written about your logic of what Guardiola should do. Pep's logic is different. To repeat myself from 4 months ago:ZeroRemorse wrote:Can't see him rotating Aguero. He has just hit some form and going into a DGW vs SUN and STK looks as good as it can get. Also there's just no-one to rotate him with realistically. As we've learned, trying to second guess Pep is near impossible. But he needs to stick with chemistry and form this time of the season and some continuity.
A DGW changes none of that, whether we would like it to or not.Ruth_NZ wrote:It was tactical. He said so. And he did bench Messi, more than once. Pep is wedded to a certain philosophy which includes constant rotation and he doesn't like out-and-out strikers.Stevieste31 wrote:It has to be his fitness as there is nothing tactical about leaving one of the best strikers in the world on the bench, he would not do that if had Messi or Suarez in his squad.
"There’s a pressure from the press and the fans of having to pick certain players. Every time I left Messi on the bench, for example, there was a fuss". That was Guardiola looking back on his time at Barça in 2014. In 2011-12, for example, he picked 25 different lineups in the first 25 games of the season, benching players like Puyol, Piqué, Villa, Fabregas and Messi along the way. In November 2015 Guardiola said: "for harmony, fitness and mind, rotation is the best solution. I like it when all of the players are getting a game." This was after 97 Bayern games where he hadn't named the same team twice in succession.
The City team built around Aguero is being dismantled. Not one of the midfielders is safe from being benched either. That is the unpalatable fact that we FPL managers will need to get used to.
Last edited by Ruth_NZ on 27 Feb 2017, 18:25, edited 1 time in total.
- Vsz
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Re: Triple captain GW27
Aguero in and captain but not triple I don't think.
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Re: Triple captain GW27
Aguero in and captained for sure. Yet to decide on the TC, but as it stands I'm probably more likely to chance it on him than not.
- Curwinkle
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Re: Triple captain GW27
Definitely TC for me. Held him the last few weeks with a view to selling after this weekend but hoping he repays the faith
- Stemania
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Re: Triple captain GW27
At the moment the thing that most puts me off is the fact he isn't on pens. I think I'd be pretty confident in the TC if he was, but it's such a downer compared to other candidates Kane, Zlatan and Sanchez (if no Giroud), who are all on them. Very much on the fence at the moment.
I actually expect him to start against Huddersfield as they've had a week and a half with no game, so I don't think that'll help much. I'm pretty confident Kun will play both DGW games tbh - he was doing 2 games a week just fine earlier on in the season and didn't miss a league game before Jesus arrived without Pep giving good reason (long international trip in which he'd been a bit injured or two games in 3 days after a month not playing).
In fact, if there's any game I think Pep could do something weird and change the system to a false 9 I would say that that's the Monaco away game. Pep's front line has otherwise started to look pretty settled I reckon and the Monaco game (if saving him for that is the worry) is cushioned nicely with the Boro cup match.
I actually expect him to start against Huddersfield as they've had a week and a half with no game, so I don't think that'll help much. I'm pretty confident Kun will play both DGW games tbh - he was doing 2 games a week just fine earlier on in the season and didn't miss a league game before Jesus arrived without Pep giving good reason (long international trip in which he'd been a bit injured or two games in 3 days after a month not playing).
In fact, if there's any game I think Pep could do something weird and change the system to a false 9 I would say that that's the Monaco away game. Pep's front line has otherwise started to look pretty settled I reckon and the Monaco game (if saving him for that is the worry) is cushioned nicely with the Boro cup match.
- eastcentral1
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Re: Triple captain GW27
Not even sure about getting him in. If I do, would not TC.
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Re: Triple captain GW27
Hmmm, not sure I agree with resounding no; but thanks for reminding me why I didn't bother getting back in ages ago.Ruth_NZ wrote:The answer is a resounding "no" and I don't need to 2nd-guess future DGWs to arrive at that conclusion.
The only reason to bring him back for the possible two matches is to TC him, imho.
I wish I had used it on Lulu or Kane when I banded them and they went big.
- eastcentral1
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Re: Triple captain GW27
blahblah wrote:The only reason to bring him back for the possible two matches is to TC him, imho.
Why do you say this? I am expecting Aguero's points over the DGW to be somewhere higher than a SGW captain (e.g. Ibra), but lower than Sanchez or Ibra in a DGW. On that basis, there is an argument to bring him in and not TC him.
- Sutter Kane
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Re: Triple captain GW27
Well I kind of see where blahblah is coming from. If his expectant score over the two games is only a little higher than an Ibra at home to Bournemouth then it's probably not worth spending the likely -4 to get him. (And it is a -8 in some circumstances which involve not wanting to exit GW28 with Aguero and are happy to be a man less in GW28 itself - in fact these are my preferred circumstances so it is a -8 for me whichever way I shoot it)
- gallus
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Re: Triple captain GW27
I agree, if you will take two hits for him for just one game you have to believe he's worth a TC.Sutter Kane wrote:Well I kind of see where blahblah is coming from. If his expectant score over the two games is only a little higher than an Ibra at home to Bournemouth then it's probably not worth spending the likely -4 to get him. (And it is a -8 in some circumstances which involve not wanting to exit GW28 with Aguero and are happy to be a man less in GW28 itself - in fact these are my preferred circumstances so it is a -8 for me whichever way I shoot it)
- blahblah
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Re: Triple captain GW27
Yep pretty much the point, tbh.gallus wrote:I agree, if you will take two hits for him for just one game you have to believe he's worth a TC.Sutter Kane wrote:Well I kind of see where blahblah is coming from. If his expectant score over the two games is only a little higher than an Ibra at home to Bournemouth then it's probably not worth spending the likely -4 to get him. (And it is a -8 in some circumstances which involve not wanting to exit GW28 with Aguero and are happy to be a man less in GW28 itself - in fact these are my preferred circumstances so it is a -8 for me whichever way I shoot it)
I think that I have bigger issues, like finding a Barnes or Clayton replacement (depending on 3-4-3 or 3-5-2) and getting Sanchez back.... Also I can;t say that I like lulu long term, regardless of fixtures as he seems a bit streaky (from my possibly incorrect aged gut feeling).
Also Zlatan has Bournemouth, and maybe Mings at CB.
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Re: Triple captain GW27
I reckon Kun's point expectation will be somewhere around the 11 or 12 points mark for the double, and the best alternative captain this week perhaps Zlatan at 6-7 or so. Doubling that difference from just captaincy is at least the 8 points back whoever is taken out so in my opinion even an 8ph is still a break even or better situation. It's free for me as a transfer in anyway (but an implied 4ph out) so quite an easy call as a standalone transfer, even if not TC-ing.
The main problem for me is that in the right circumstances/fixtures I think Sanchez could easily have a good double that blows Kun's expectancy out the water. For example, taking FFS's projections as a rough guide, though obviously not gospel by any means, they have Ibra topping the list on a (quite conservative?) 5.6 points this week and Kun on a combined 11.1 for the two game concerned - I believe they take into account an assessment of the chance of starting. Sanchez could easily hit 6.5 to 7 per game for a pair of good fixtures in terms of that scale though. Kun on pens could too, but off pens vs Sanchez possibly on them? I'm not sure Kun's near enough.
In terms of alternatives I think Chelsea will be risky for late gameweeks, Spurs are likely to have one tough fixtures in any double, Zlatan reasonably likely to have a tough fixture in their doubles (and in a triple would a 35 yr old play 3 games in that space of time? I don't think so tbh). So for me it's Sanchez the best bet later, perhaps Kun this week is then in the group of next best contenders on current knowledge, unless some very specific cup shocks/rearrangements happen. There's always the factor that Sanchez/Ibra/Kane etc may not be be fit at the moment a good DGW occurs, Ibra in particular may be in the middle of a tough EURO semifinal schedule. So there probably is an argument for taking the good fixtures now they're here and Kun is fit, but in the fence sitting exercise it's still just about a Sanchez for me I think.
The main problem for me is that in the right circumstances/fixtures I think Sanchez could easily have a good double that blows Kun's expectancy out the water. For example, taking FFS's projections as a rough guide, though obviously not gospel by any means, they have Ibra topping the list on a (quite conservative?) 5.6 points this week and Kun on a combined 11.1 for the two game concerned - I believe they take into account an assessment of the chance of starting. Sanchez could easily hit 6.5 to 7 per game for a pair of good fixtures in terms of that scale though. Kun on pens could too, but off pens vs Sanchez possibly on them? I'm not sure Kun's near enough.
In terms of alternatives I think Chelsea will be risky for late gameweeks, Spurs are likely to have one tough fixtures in any double, Zlatan reasonably likely to have a tough fixture in their doubles (and in a triple would a 35 yr old play 3 games in that space of time? I don't think so tbh). So for me it's Sanchez the best bet later, perhaps Kun this week is then in the group of next best contenders on current knowledge, unless some very specific cup shocks/rearrangements happen. There's always the factor that Sanchez/Ibra/Kane etc may not be be fit at the moment a good DGW occurs, Ibra in particular may be in the middle of a tough EURO semifinal schedule. So there probably is an argument for taking the good fixtures now they're here and Kun is fit, but in the fence sitting exercise it's still just about a Sanchez for me I think.
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Re: Triple captain GW27
Exactly, breaking on an 8pt hit even isn't really the point when there will be other TC opportunities. Also I fancy Zlatan to bag a brace, if he starts, which makes breaking even a tad tricky, especially if Kun doesn't start both matches.
The thing with him starting is quite simple: Jose has won a Cup, and the pressure is on Pep to do the same, while qualifying for the CL. Which is he going to win the FAC Cup or the CL? I do not believe that he thinks they can catch Chelsea, so just have to stay above MU in the League. So Sunderland or Stoke look ripe for not starting him.......
The thing with him starting is quite simple: Jose has won a Cup, and the pressure is on Pep to do the same, while qualifying for the CL. Which is he going to win the FAC Cup or the CL? I do not believe that he thinks they can catch Chelsea, so just have to stay above MU in the League. So Sunderland or Stoke look ripe for not starting him.......
- Pirlo's Beard
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Re: Triple captain GW27
Mings at centre-back? No way, you're winding us up.blahblah wrote:Also Zlatan has Bournemouth, and maybe Mings at CB.
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Re: Triple captain GW27
Apparently knotPirlo's Beard wrote:Mings at centre-back? No way, you're winding us up.blahblah wrote:Also Zlatan has Bournemouth, and maybe Mings at CB.
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Re: Triple captain GW27
But what if Sanchez's good DGW is at the same time when BB is the best played?Stemania wrote: The main problem for me is that in the right circumstances/fixtures I think Sanchez could easily have a good double that blows Kun's expectancy out the water.
So we are speaking of Sanchez getting a good DGW and at the same time that DGW not being the best time to play BB. What are the odds for that? Isn't that quite unlikely? What do you think?
- Billy Bongo
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Re: Triple captain GW27
Thing is with Sanchez you can partially cover his TC with normal cap, whereas Aguero is a big diff
sent from Tapatalk that can't do paragraphs properly
sent from Tapatalk that can't do paragraphs properly
- matmutte
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Re: Triple captain GW27
Felt the same when i looked at Aguero's ownership. Right now he's at 16% and should remain below 20% by saturday. And i believe more than half his ownership is dead teams ? So you can have an Aguero TC DGW (sun, STO) with around 10% ownership, talk about differential ! it's now or never ain't it ? Ok some level of risk with game time but the reward could be massive.Billy Bongo wrote:Thing is with Sanchez you can partially cover his TC with normal cap, whereas Aguero is a big diff
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- bigcliff2
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Re: Triple captain GW27
I see where you're coming from here but I would argue that it's easier to rotate Barca players when you're the best team in the world in a two-team league and similarly in Bayern but no so easy when you're fighting to even qualify for the Champions League.Ruth_NZ wrote:The answer is a resounding "no" and I don't need to 2nd-guess future DGWs to arrive at that conclusion.
City will be in the middle of a run of 6 games in 18 days. Sunderland and Stoke are not the hardest of those by any means. Pep needs little or no excuse to rotate at the best of times. Aguero could quite conceivably not start both games. End of story, no TC for me.
Same old, same old. You have written about your logic of what Guardiola should do. Pep's logic is different. To repeat myself from 4 months ago:ZeroRemorse wrote:Can't see him rotating Aguero. He has just hit some form and going into a DGW vs SUN and STK looks as good as it can get. Also there's just no-one to rotate him with realistically. As we've learned, trying to second guess Pep is near impossible. But he needs to stick with chemistry and form this time of the season and some continuity.
A DGW changes none of that, whether we would like it to or not.Ruth_NZ wrote:It was tactical. He said so. And he did bench Messi, more than once. Pep is wedded to a certain philosophy which includes constant rotation and he doesn't like out-and-out strikers.Stevieste31 wrote:It has to be his fitness as there is nothing tactical about leaving one of the best strikers in the world on the bench, he would not do that if had Messi or Suarez in his squad.
"There’s a pressure from the press and the fans of having to pick certain players. Every time I left Messi on the bench, for example, there was a fuss". That was Guardiola looking back on his time at Barça in 2014. In 2011-12, for example, he picked 25 different lineups in the first 25 games of the season, benching players like Puyol, Piqué, Villa, Fabregas and Messi along the way. In November 2015 Guardiola said: "for harmony, fitness and mind, rotation is the best solution. I like it when all of the players are getting a game." This was after 97 Bayern games where he hadn't named the same team twice in succession.
The City team built around Aguero is being dismantled. Not one of the midfielders is safe from being benched either. That is the unpalatable fact that we FPL managers will need to get used to.
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Re: Triple captain GW27
Awesome post Stemania, but I find this Arsenal chapter a bit confusing (possibly my own fault). So, are Arsenal guaranteed to have DGW34? What do you mean by "their only double", they do have at least two doubles for sure, right?Stemania wrote: Arsenal:
To rearrange:
SUN (if they beat Lincoln), LEI, sot.
If they beat Lincoln they will have a DGW outside of GW34/37 (i.e. one of 28, 32, 33, 35, 36). One of the three for GW34 midweek, one for DGW37, and one in the bracketed list. There's quite a lot of possibilities so let's just call x one of (SUN, LEI, sot), then:
1) If that extra game falls in GW28, 32, 33 the first double will be
(wba, x), (cpl, x) or (mid, x).
2) If that extra game falls in GW35/36 the first double will be a tougher
(tot, x) or (MUN, x).
3) At the very least will have their 2nd double (or their only double if they lose to Lincoln) in GW37 as
(sto, x)
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Re: Triple captain GW27
I don't understand that either. They have two blanks already, surely that means two guaranteed doubles?Finisher1 wrote:Awesome post Stemania, but I find this Arsenal chapter a bit confusing (possibly my own fault). So, are Arsenal guaranteed to have DGW34? What do you mean by "their only double", they do have at least two doubles for sure, right?Stemania wrote: Arsenal:
To rearrange:
SUN (if they beat Lincoln), LEI, sot.
If they beat Lincoln they will have a DGW outside of GW34/37 (i.e. one of 28, 32, 33, 35, 36). One of the three for GW34 midweek, one for DGW37, and one in the bracketed list. There's quite a lot of possibilities so let's just call x one of (SUN, LEI, sot), then:
1) If that extra game falls in GW28, 32, 33 the first double will be
(wba, x), (cpl, x) or (mid, x).
2) If that extra game falls in GW35/36 the first double will be a tougher
(tot, x) or (MUN, x).
3) At the very least will have their 2nd double (or their only double if they lose to Lincoln) in GW37 as
(sto, x)
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Re: Triple captain GW27
You're right. The bit that Stem is missing is that if Arsenal lose to Lincoln, they almost certainly will still have one of their rearranged games in GW34 but this time, their original fixture won't have moved so this will be a DGW. If Arsenal beat Lincoln, they will still have the midweek GW34 fixture but an FA cup match instead on the weekend so it would just be a SGW.Finisher1 wrote:Awesome post Stemania, but I find this Arsenal chapter a bit confusing (possibly my own fault). So, are Arsenal guaranteed to have DGW34? What do you mean by "their only double", they do have at least two doubles for sure, right?Stemania wrote: Arsenal:
To rearrange:
SUN (if they beat Lincoln), LEI, sot.
If they beat Lincoln they will have a DGW outside of GW34/37 (i.e. one of 28, 32, 33, 35, 36). One of the three for GW34 midweek, one for DGW37, and one in the bracketed list. There's quite a lot of possibilities so let's just call x one of (SUN, LEI, sot), then:
1) If that extra game falls in GW28, 32, 33 the first double will be
(wba, x), (cpl, x) or (mid, x).
2) If that extra game falls in GW35/36 the first double will be a tougher
(tot, x) or (MUN, x).
3) At the very least will have their 2nd double (or their only double if they lose to Lincoln) in GW37 as
(sto, x)
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Re: Triple captain GW27
Ha, great spot, sorry. That bracketed 'or their only double if they lose to Lincoln' shouldn't be there. I didn't put in the losing to Lincoln scenario properly as I didn't think I was going to do the whole shebang at the time - you can tell as it doesn't follow my numbering system elsewhere. Should have gone back to it afterwards.
Now edited, many thanks. Should read:
Now edited, many thanks. Should read:
Arsenal:
To rearrange:
SUN (if they beat Lincoln), LEI, sot.
1) If they beat Lincoln they will have a two DGWs, one in GW37 and one outside of GW34/37 (i.e. one of 28, 32, 33, 35, 36). One of the three games goes GW34 midweek, one DGW37, and one in the bracketed list. There's quite a lot of possibilities so let's just call x ''one of (SUN, LEI, sot)'', then:
If that extra game falls in GW28, 32, 33 the first double will be
(wba, x), (cpl, x) or (mid, x).
If that extra game falls in GW35/36 the first double will be a tougher
(tot, x) or (MUN, x).
At the very least, in both cases they will have their 2nd double in GW37 as
(sto, x)
2) If they lose to Lincoln they will have two DGWs (one in GW34, one in GW37), either
(SUN, LEI) then (sto, sot); or
(SUN, sot) then (sto, LEI)
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