Code: Select all
26 27 28 29 30 31
Sánchez --- liv (LEI) wba MCI WHU
Hazard SWA whu (WAT) stk CRY MCI
My current GW26 lineup is
Foster (Grant)
Azpi FunesMori Robertson (Holgate Koscielny)
Eriksen Alli Phillips Fletcher (Sánchez)
Kane Lukaku Defoe
I've already jerked my 2 FT, and have £1.8m itb
I bought Sánchez at 11.0m, so I'd sell at 11.4m, and should accept that I might lose some 0.1m budget if/when I'll get him back, that's not the main issue
Shipping Sánchez to bring in, for instance, Hazard, would mean to me to take a -4p hit to play Hazard in place of Fletcher, and that would have to be justified by a 4p greater points projection (which is incidentally true acc.to FFS Haz 7.09 Flet 2.78, but not by FFF Haz 6.13 Flet 3.39 )
Then Hazard has a marginally better expectation than Sánchez for GW27 too, and they're both likely to have a blank GW28
I'd feel stymied to spend a transfer on a GW28 blanker when atm I only have 7 sure players for GW28 (well, 6 plus Holgate )
But actually, regardless I take this hit now or not, I'll have the same 2 FT (one in GW27 and one in GW28) to address that issue...
OTOH, if I switch Sánchez now to a BOU/HUL/SWA/WHM mid instead of Haz (not EVE/WBA for me, as I already have 3 slots full for these clubs),
I'd have one more GW28 player now, plus the 2FT in next two gws anyway...
So,
on one hand I'd just need to expect Hazard(SWA,whu) to score 4p more than Fletcher(BOU)+Sánchez(liv), to justify the hit now.
on the other hand, given that I'll take this hit now (which is not granted yet), I should better compare Hazard vs for instance
- Siggy(che,BUR,hul)
- Antonio(wat,CHE,bou) [or Snoddy/Lanzini]
- Stanislas(wba,mun,WHU) [or King/Fraser]
- Evandro/Grosicki(BUR,lei,SWA), best fixtures but an almost blind "gamble"
Sincerely, none of the above is promising with their 3 fixtures to exceed Hazard returns in 2 next fixtures.
Maybe Siggy, but he's not expected to better Fletcher in GW26 @che!
In summary,
a GW26 hit to increase my GW28 XI quota looks hardly justifiable, barring adventurous gambles
a GW26 hit can be considered only to bet on positive points balance for GW26-27 from Hazard... and it's not a clear-cut decision imho
But as the FA Cup 5th round this weekend will bring some certainty (barring replays) on GW28 blankers,
and as I'll only lose 0.1m Selling Value unless Sánchez falls 3 times in next 4 nights,
I accept to eventually lose 0.2m budget (-0.1m from the sale, +0.1m on Hazard purchase) to postpone such decision till monday
Besides, the Koscielny injury yesterday in Munich is an added worry to monitor and eventually deal with