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Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

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better buy Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Azpilicueta
13
25%
Alonso
39
75%
 
Total votes: 52

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Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by Stemania »

Valeron wrote:Who do you think will score more points between now and the end of the season?

Or who is the better buy now, assuming they were identical in price. Please give reasons too.
Thread originally created after various other older posts on the topic were made in an Firmino thread, made making direct merging tough. Above is the intended OP, the following is the post that started the original conversation:
Valeron wrote: The smart FPL players will look beyond the short-term point variances. Anyone buying Azpilicueta over Alonso this week is a classic example of a mug manager.
and below are the posts filling the gap until this OP was made (viewtopic.php?f=140&t=123583&p=2995387#p2995328).

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Re: Out with Firmino?

Post by baganboy »

Valeron wrote:Anyone buying Azpilicueta over Alonso this week is a classic example of a mug manager.
Hmm. Okay. Thanks.

Care to explain, though?

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Re: Out with Firmino?

Post by Valeron »

baganboy wrote:
Valeron wrote:Anyone buying Azpilicueta over Alonso this week is a classic example of a mug manager.
Hmm. Okay. Thanks.

Care to explain, though?
Because Azpi has more points overall and has just outscored Alonso 12-6 in the previous game, but it looks obvious to me Alonso has better point potential for the same price. Check out the elite players and I imagine way more will have Alonso.

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Re: Out with Firmino?

Post by baganboy »

Valeron, are you an elite manager? If not, then why should what is obvious to you matter at all, especially because you have not been able to articulate it yet?*

When we discount what is obvious to you, perhaps we can consider that many elite managers may have Alonso because for a majority of the season so far, Alonso was cheaper, and it made sense to scrounge on every 0.1M?

Azpilicueta is a bona fide bonus magnet, while I agree that Alonso has more goal potential. Chelsea is not built to score lots of goals from the defence, (unlike say Scott Dann and CP). Neither has spot kick responsibilities (unlike Brunt / Baines).

Logically, there should be nothing to choose between the two ***.
Indeed, because clean sheets (and therefore bonuses for defenders) are more predictable than goals for defenders, one can counter that Azpilicueta is the safer choice. Not better, though, IMHO.


* Disclaimer: neither am I. So I can only proffer a logical theory, rather that state what is obvious to me without reasoning.
*** therefore going for the cheaper one seems logical, if one is short on cash.

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Re: Out with Firmino?

Post by Valeron »

The chances of Chelsea sustaining their clean sheet rate are remote in my opinion and also according to the maths. That would almost sure screw Azpi's bonus. From what I've seen Alsonso was very close to more attacking returns recently. The match that finished 12-6 in Azpi's favour I mentioned as it was a freak that Azpi scored twice as many points. I take your point about how elite players may have taken Alonso over Azpi at least partly as he was a little cheaper. Please also note I specificed Azpi is a classic mug pick over Alonso at the same price.

How are we defining elite players? I have made it to the next of the cup and so the top 1m cup players if that qualifies me.

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Re: Out with Firmino?

Post by Billy Bongo »

People are forgetting he's a full back not a winger, he's not suddenly going to become Roberto Carlos

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Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by Valeron »

Who do you think will score more points between now and the end of the season?

Or who is the better buy now, assuming they were identical in price. Please give reasons too.

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Re: Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by Stemania »

I'd probably put my chips on Alonso due to his great attacking threat and LM position - mainly for assists but also for goals (even if his shooting ability is....wayward....at times, he gets in good positions all the time) - plus he's on some direct freekicks. Azpili's has massive bonus-bagging ability, but that relies on many CSs in a way that Alonso's attacking returns don't - Chelsea won't keep up this level of Azpili-favouring CSs (9 in the last 12 is ludicrous). :D

Personally I think the boat is missed for non-owners like me - both players are 6.4/6.5m now, which I don't think is good enough value over either the 5m price-point (Brunt, Jones, Cedric, Williams soon(?) etc) or even the semi-premium 5.3-6m band (Rose, Baines/Valencia?).

Besides, I'd vastly prefer Bellerin to both over the next 6 or so weeks if I was in the market to spend that much on a defender. :D

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Re: Out with Firmino?

Post by gallus »

Alonso is not a defender on the pitch. He's a LM. He's as advanced as Moses. And he's a FK specialist.

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Re: Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by baganboy »

In my humble opinion, there's nothing to choose between the two. End of the season will get both of them nearly the same points, starting now.
Happy to have Azpilicueta. Would have been equally happy if it would have been Alonso instead.

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Re: Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by cesc408 »

Alonso as he is more attacking. Azpi is playing as a CB who doesn't even go up for corners so chances of a goal are quite slim.

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Re: Out with Firmino?

Post by baganboy »

Valeron wrote: How are we defining elite players?
Not 'we'. You are. So tell me.

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Re: Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by eastcentral1 »

In the current set up I see Alonso scoring more than Azpi. As mentioned above, Chelsea cannot keep up this rate of clean sheets, which will have a detrimental effect on Azpi's ability to be pick up BPS. Also, Alonso has been a little unlucky not to have scored or assisted more in the past few games. He gets very involved in the attacks, likes a pop at goal and now appears to be an option on free kicks (in particular to the right of goal).

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Re: Out with Firmino?

Post by MoSe »

Billy Bongo wrote:People are forgetting he's a full back not a winger, he's not suddenly going to become Roberto Carlos
gallus wrote:Alonso is not a defender on the pitch. He's a LM. He's as advanced as Moses. And he's a FK specialist.
he played last two seasons in Italy, didn't watch him much tho, only occasionally in highlights.
When he got mentioned he always got praised for his quality, although he always gave me the feeling he had to fully express his potential yet.
I'm definitely a mug by Valeron's standards, a lot of course depends on the system and the needs by his club manager, but while he was here I though of him as a LM who could cover as LB -- offensive as a LB, but not so much offensive as LMs go

Going by a site which gives abundant details about a player's position:
http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/marcos-a ... aison=2015
15/16
Matches as App Goal Ass
Left Midfield 17 2 3
Left-Back 11 1 1
Centre-Back 4 - -

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/marcos-a ... aison=2014
14/15
Matches as App Goal Ass
Left-Back 17 - -
Left Midfield 10 1 2
Centre-Back 3 - 1

before that he played 3 seasons at Bolton and half one at Sunderland, and I hadn't heard about him. so some of you definitely know him better from that time
he always played LB when in England, but that was 1. back in time 2. he was still rather young
when he came to Italy in 14/15, Montella (currently AC Milan coach, and reviving us :)) first played him at LB too, then he maybe realised it wasn't his best position and "evolved" him to LM. Paulo Sousa appointed in 15/16 continued playing him LM rather than LB, but maybe that depended on the team being already "wired" that way :?
Under Conte he plays LM in a 343 as there's no LB under that system. FPL tagged him as Def when he came here probably thinking back at the seasons he played in England till 13/14. I figure next season he might be changed to Mid, just as Brunt was a Mid then FPL changed him to Def this season after FPL saw he got adaped as Def in WBA in 15/16.
Even with Conte emphasizing his potential, I'd be surprised anyway should he score more than 2-3 goals in the rest of the season.
About FK "specialist", in his whole career he scored 11 goals http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/marcos-a ... ler/112515 only one thereof reported as FK
The much vituperated David Luiz, as comparison, scored 26 careergoals, 4 from FK, better than Alonso in proportion. He might have forgotten how to kick them, judging by several comments on this forum, but in 12/13 DL scored 7 goals for Chelsea in all comps: 3 FK, 2 pens, 2 long-distance
Maybe that's why Conte lets him take FK rather than Alonso :? :?:

As I posted elsewhere few weeks ago, I agree that Alonso might score more pts than Azpi in the rest of the season, but I'd be surprised should that margin get even near 20p (= +1ppG), I'd rather guess +10p. In the 12 last games whn both played full 90', they both scored the same 78p, and that can't be discounted due to a "freak haul"
But I'm a mug, what do I know :roll:
I'd probably pick Alonso should I choose between the two now, actually I have Azpi since GW1, way before Alonso even came to Chelse and began seeing game time, then never found the right time and convenience to switch
_____

BTW, wasn't this a topic about Firmino?
Well, i just replied to previous OOT posts here :mrgreen:

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Re: Out with Firmino?

Post by Valeron »

baganboy wrote:
Valeron wrote: How are we defining elite players?
Not 'we'. You are. So tell me.
average finishing position of 4 digits, over last 3 seasons. There may be the odd exception of a top class player who had 1 nightmare season outside the top 30k.

Anyone with a career-long average finishing position (3 seasons minimum and the more the better) of 4 digits I think must be in a very select group..wonder if anyone can filter this kind of data?

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Re: Out with Firmino?

Post by MoSe »

MoSe wrote:BTW, wasn't this a topic about Firmino?
Well, i just replied to previous OOT posts here :mrgreen:
tarkens wrote:how's that relevant to Firmino smashing City tomorrow? :)
reviewing, I think it all started here
Valeron wrote:I think that's Billy Bongo well and truly owned.

The smart FPL players will look beyond the short-term point variances. Anyone buying Azpilicueta over Alonso this week is a classic example of a mug manager.
[my bold]
baganboy wrote:
Valeron wrote:Anyone buying Azpilicueta over Alonso this week is a classic example of a mug manager.
Hmm. Okay. Thanks.
Care to explain, though?
Valeron wrote:Because Azpi has more points overall and has just outscored Alonso 12-6 in the previous game, but it looks obvious to me Alonso has better point potential for the same price. Check out the elite players and I imagine way more will have Alonso.
baganboy wrote:Valeron, are you an elite manager? If not, then why should what is obvious to you matter at all, especially because you have not been able to articulate it yet?*

When we discount what is obvious to you, perhaps we can consider that many elite managers may have Alonso because for a majority of the season so far, Alonso was cheaper, and it made sense to scrounge on every 0.1M?

Azpilicueta is a bona fide bonus magnet, while I agree that Alonso has more goal potential. Chelsea is not built to score lots of goals from the defence, (unlike say Scott Dann and CP). Neither has spot kick responsibilities (unlike Brunt / Baines).

Logically, there should be nothing to choose between the two ***.
Indeed, because clean sheets (and therefore bonuses for defenders) are more predictable than goals for defenders, one can counter that Azpilicueta is the safer choice. Not better, though, IMHO.


* Disclaimer: neither am I. So I can only proffer a logical theory, rather that state what is obvious to me without reasoning.
*** therefore going for the cheaper one seems logical, if one is short on cash.
Valeron wrote:The chances of Chelsea sustaining their clean sheet rate are remote in my opinion and also according to the maths. That would almost sure screw Azpi's bonus. From what I've seen Alsonso was very close to more attacking returns recently. The match that finished 12-6 in Azpi's favour I mentioned as it was a freak that Azpi scored twice as many points. I take your point about how elite players may have taken Alonso over Azpi at least partly as he was a little cheaper. Please also note I specificed Azpi is a classic mug pick over Alonso at the same price.

How are we defining elite players? I have made it to the next of the cup and so the top 1m cup players if that qualifies me.
[removed indented quotations when they quoted a whole post, and put them in sequence instead]

BB supported Wv comment that Lallana (and Mané) was a better prospect than Firmino (to get back OT).
I got franlky a bit lost in the previous discussion, but I think the points countering Wv's comment were that Lallana underlying stats showed he's overachieving, and won't likely be able to keep the same pts yield over the season.
So i figure the (implicit) parallel was about a mug manager preferring Azpi over Alonso, and a mug manager rating Lallana ignoring his long-term underlying stats :? :?:
i.e. only a manager stopping at "short-term point variances" would rate Lallana as a season prospect
as only a manager stopping at "short-term point variances" would buy Azpilicueta over Alonso this week

in his opinion
:roll:

_______

LOL, my backtracking post got moved even before I submitted it :shock:
amazing powers of moderation! :lol: http://www.pink-floyd-lyrics.com/html/n ... yrics.html
Last edited by MoSe on 30 Dec 2016, 15:25, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Out with Firmino?

Post by baganboy »

Valeron wrote:
baganboy wrote:
Valeron wrote: How are we defining elite players?
Not 'we'. You are. So tell me.
average finishing position of 4 digits, over last 3 seasons. There may be the odd exception of a top class player who had 1 nightmare season outside the top 30k.

Anyone with a career-long average finishing position (3 seasons minimum and the more the better) of 4 digits I think must be in a very select group..wonder if anyone can filter this kind of data?
Yes, that's Stemania. You can ask him why only a mug manager will get Azpilicueta.

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Re: Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by Finisher1 »

If you are a serious manager, check out these stats:

Alonso - 1177 minutes, 18 goal attempts of which 10 in the box, 38 touches in the box, 15 chances created
Azpilicueta - 1706 minutes, 6 goal attempts of which 3 in the box, 11 touches in the box, 10 chances created


If you are a casual, check out these stats:

Alonso - 79 points (4th among defenders)
Azpilicueta - 95 points (1st among defenders)

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Re: Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by Rivers »

Finisher1 wrote:If you are a serious manager, check out these stats:

Alonso - 1177 minutes, 18 goal attempts of which 10 in the box, 38 touches in the box, 15 chances created
Azpilicueta - 1706 minutes, 6 goal attempts of which 3 in the box, 11 touches in the box, 10 chances created


If you are a casual, check out these stats:

Alonso - 79 points (4th among defenders)
Azpilicueta - 95 points (1st among defenders)
Just to put a fly in that ointment:

Bonus Points:

Alonso - 3 points
Azpilicueta - 15 points

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Re: Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by Finisher1 »

Rivers wrote:
Finisher1 wrote:If you are a serious manager, check out these stats:

Alonso - 1177 minutes, 18 goal attempts of which 10 in the box, 38 touches in the box, 15 chances created
Azpilicueta - 1706 minutes, 6 goal attempts of which 3 in the box, 11 touches in the box, 10 chances created


If you are a casual, check out these stats:

Alonso - 79 points (4th among defenders)
Azpilicueta - 95 points (1st among defenders)
Just to put a fly in that ointment:

Bonus Points:

Alonso - 3 points
Azpilicueta - 15 points
It's a good point. Azpilicueta is very likely on bonus points whenever Chelsea win 1-0, but may nick one bonus point even in bigger wins including CS.

Alonso just has so much bigger attacking threat that it's going to lead into FPL points sooner rather than later, so I think Alonso will outscore Azpilicueta with a quite clear margin between this day and the end of the season.
Last edited by Finisher1 on 30 Dec 2016, 15:22, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by Stemania »

Some posts moved from the Firmino thread - apologies for any lost context -I've done the best I can in terms of keeping the previous and ongoing conversation alongside the conversation going on here.

Unfortunately this has necessarily resulted in a poll reset, apologies for that.

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Re: Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by MoSe »

Finisher1 wrote:Alonso just has so much bigger attacking threat that it's going to lead into FPL points sooner rather than later,
so I think Alonso will outscore Azpilicueta with a quite clear margin between this day and the end of the season.
without polemic intent, I think the bolded statement should fall under the definition of some kind of "bias" (if not outright fallacy)
I'll try to research and expound if I can carve some time sometimes (not a personal attack, just my opinion about a concept, whoever wrote it)

Re: their fpl points potential in the remaining 20 matches this season
MoSe wrote:As I posted elsewhere few weeks ago,
I agree that Alonso might score more pts than Azpi in the rest of the season,
but I'd be surprised should that margin get even near 20p (= +1ppG), I'd rather guess +10p.

In the 12 last games when both played full 90', they both scored the same 78p
you say "quite clear margin" (?), I'd bet instead the margin will be closer to 10p than to 20p (+0.5 PpG rather than +1.0 PpG)
I concede my prediction is not based on a thorough analysis, but it's not "just a wild guess" either.
I considered his last two seasons, admittedly in a different league under two different managers adopting different systems,
where he played 27 games as LM with 3G 5A, and 35 games in defence with 1G 2A
MoSe wrote:Even with Conte emphasizing his potential, I'd be surprised anyway should he score more than 2-3 goals in the rest of the season.
About FK "specialist", in his whole career he scored 11 goals http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/marcos-a ... ler/112515 only one thereof reported as FK
it's just my basic prediction, and it may obviously turn out to be wrong.
but I think it's as good as any other "based" on underlying stats, without providing a proven correlation leading from such stats to the end product. IMHO. :mrgreen:

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Re: Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by Weisenwolf »

I got Alonso for £6M; I wouldn't pay the current price for either of them.

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Re: Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by blahblah »

Weisenwolf wrote:I got Alonso for £6M; I wouldn't pay the current price for either of them.

Bstrd

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Re: Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by Billy Bongo »

There is a fixation on chelsea defenders and to be fair they've been great, but I still maintain they are exensive,and Alonso does struggle with his shot accuracy.

No doubt he's going to reward his owners with some attacking points at some stage, but I'd still rather have Baines


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Re: Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by Mav3rick »

The question for me isn't which is better, I think most of us would have made a choice by now and both are fine options, it's if either should be owned for the next little spell of games. Admittedly I've only had Alonso for 5GWs so I don't have anywhere near as much value tied up as some of the early owners, but I am inclined to look around and consider selling.

Chelsea have been a good defence, top 5 or so in most defensive stats over the last 5GWs and top 3 in the key one of big chances conceded. I'm not sure if they are exactly a cut above other teams though, not enough to think that this clean sheet record will continue and actually Spurs are probably the best statistical defensive team IMO.

Alonso has the eye test attacking threat that other defenders do struggle to match, but actually other defenders are up there and over a run of games, I do think the 5.0 defenders can maintain a closer gap. I don't mean Brunt, I think many of us will already have someone like him, but you could feasibly double up with the goal threat of McAuley or look at Cedric's BP and assist potential for a significant discount.

Scott Dann has been mentioned by Ruth_NZ too, he's had a price drop, and I think he is similar to McAuley in both attacking threat and fixture strength. a 1.0 or so saving isn't insignificant and Alonso would need to be going at probably 0.6-0.75 ppg more than those alternatives just to make up the price difference alone.

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Re: Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by blahblah »

Billy Bongo wrote:There is a fixation on chelsea defenders and to be fair they've been great, but I still maintain they are expensive,and Alonso does struggle with his shot accuracy.
Yep, exactly why I didn't get him earlier on. He really isn't that good going forward.....

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Re: RE: Re: Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by Billy Bongo »

blahblah wrote:
Billy Bongo wrote:There is a fixation on chelsea defenders and to be fair they've been great, but I still maintain they are expensive,and Alonso does struggle with his shot accuracy.
Yep, exactly why I didn't get him earlier on. He really isn't that good going forward.....
I've said that and got bullied :) I think there is a better value elsewhere.

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Re: Out with Firmino?

Post by MoSe »

Valeron wrote:Anyone with a career-long average finishing position (3 seasons minimum and the more the better) of 4 digits I think must be in a very select group..
wonder if anyone can filter this kind of data?
obvious data source as starting base: http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co. ... me/career/
limited tho to those who had joined a FFS private league

Beware with averaging ranks tho, in such case CK's point of averaging Pts across several season might hold preferable.
  • To average ranks, I'd probably try to use the harmonic mean, instead of the arithmetic one.
    ...the harmonic mean ... tends (compared to the arithmetic mean) to mitigate the impact of large outliers and aggravate the impact of small ones
    as it rewards your best season, whereas with the usual average one bad season would be enough to ruin the rank of several good ones.
El Tel, hancock and :o big mon, here in Fiso
viewtopic.php?p=2843557#p2843557
viewtopic.php?p=2696608#p2696608
and probably very few others

e.g. RidleyMTB had, going back, rounded: 50 120 3k 25k 38k 54k 8k
he had indeed 4 4-digit seasons out of 7, including the 3 most recent, soaring up into top 100
arith. mean 18k
geom. mean 3.5k
harm. mean 239
I honestly can't say myself which of the three best represents his career, I only say that I don't think his old 3 seasons in the 20-50k range diminish the worth of his 4 ones in the top 100 - top 8k range :?

baganboy: DNP 6.5k 46k 9k 200 17k 1.4k 13k 276k
4 season in the top 9k, mixed with 3 ones a bit better than RMTB, plus his oldest rookie one which I figure you can discard?
his 3 avgs, omitting the oldest season: A 13.4k, G 5.7k, H 1.2k (BTW, Ville's: A 1.3k, G 660, H 340)
regardless his results, and whether you rate him elite or mug, I'd still give the highest credit to his opinion, from how I learned to appreciate his contributions here

As I do (say) with RNZ, even in disagreement, regardless he's not in the FFS HoF (he's in the Fiso Forum League, but not in the FFS one :o)
I'm of course deliberately ignoring Stemania ;) :P who fully qualifies with his 5 last seasons in the 1k-10k range
(a few others I didn't mention, please forgive me: ..Mav, SG, MP3, AR, Taca, MvL, RPG, long list ...)

but all in all, I don't actually care (except loving rankings, for ranking's sake :mrgreen: )
I frankly tend to rate ppl from their ideas and deeds,
not ideas from the Titles of ppl proposing them :roll: which I understand (?) it's instead yours and Finisher's school of thought :?

User avatar
baganboy
Comfortably Dumb(ledore)
Posts: 5874
Joined: 05 Aug 2008, 06:59
FS Record: 2011/12 - 212. 2019/20 - 222.
Altogether 6 top 10Ks. 8 top 20Ks. 9 top 50Ks.

Re: Azpilicueta v Marcos Alonso

Post by baganboy »

Such nice words, MoSe. Thanks. Where will we be without you?

It's all about the ideas for me too.
Looking at someone else's rankings to determine the worth of their ideas, IMHO, is like counting someone else's money. His ranking won't have any influence on your ranking, just like his money would not buy you anything.
Except if he is Warren Buffet. Except if he is Ville Ronka. Then hi investment strategy / his playing strategy might teach you something...

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