DGW Thread

[Stemania]

Thanks for the links again MoSe.

This page of the docs linked looks particularly useful with the percentage chance of each fixture taking place (based on bookies odds). Currently:

GW28Fixture Blank%
Chelsea vs Watford 75.84%
Southampton vs Man United 71.51%
Liverpool vs Burnley 71.51%
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham 69.49%
Arsenal vs Leicester 64.66%
Man City vs Stoke 51.10%
Middlesbrough vs Sunderland 42.59%
Hull vs Swansea 17.03%
Everton vs West Brom 0%
Bournemouth vs West Ham 0%

with 5 'projected' blanks currently. Obviously it will get a massive overhaul when the draw for the next round is made.

Is it Jarvish(?) from FFS that we should credit?

[Ruth_NZ]

Southampton v Arsenal postponed GW26. Will it be played the midweek following (so still in GW26)? Maybe we'll know before the next gameweek deadline. But I'm kind of glad only to have Sanchez to worry about right now.

[I Am Ville]

Easy benching decision for one week with just sanchez. I am in same boat.

[Mo Bot]

Southampton v Arsenal postponed GW26. Will it be played the midweek following (so still in GW26)? Maybe we'll know before the next gameweek deadline. But I'm kind of glad only to have Sanchez to worry about right now.

Seeing as they play each other this weekend, one of them will qualify for the next round. I believe the midweek following GW26 is earmarked for FA cup 5th round replays so it might not be arranged until much later. I could be talking out of my backside of course.....

[Finisher1]

Sanchez has a blank GW26?

YES PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!

#SayNoToSanchez

[OIEIAO]

I have sanchez and Giroud and 2 from man u (accidental rhyme).

Looking to switch Giroud after the Watford game which was kind of the plan already.

It may have been highlighted but Everton are already assured not to blank in either Gw26 or 28 so those buying their players for their favorable fixtures can do so with confidence.

[Ruth_NZ]

Southampton v Arsenal postponed GW26. Will it be played the midweek following (so still in GW26)? Maybe we'll know before the next gameweek deadline. But I'm kind of glad only to have Sanchez to worry about right now.

Seeing as they play each other this weekend, one of them will qualify for the next round. I believe the midweek following GW26 is earmarked for FA cup 5th round replays so it might not be arranged until much later. I could be talking out of my backside of course.....

Impossible to know. They could re-schedule for GW26 midweek and then postpone again if the slot is needed for a FA Cup replay. They could go for GW34 (which also runs the same risk). They could do nothing and then get into knots later on (as they did last season). Who can tell? I don't think they have the sharpest tools in the box dealing with these issues to be honest.

[cesc408]

I can see some people not wanting to hold, with a possible run of:

Gw26 Blank
Gw27 Lpool A
Gw28 Blank
Gw29 WBA A
Gw30 Man City H

It's not so much the fixtures that are set, more the possibility of 2 blanks in 3

[Joccki_10]

I expect Sanchez Hazard in GW26 to be a very popular transfer.

[MoSe]

They could re-schedule for GW26 midweek and then postpone again if the slot is needed for a FA Cup replay.

yeah, I had suggested/inquired earlier whether a "provisional" re-schedule was something to consider, or out of FA habits...
By the same rationale, couldn't they (in theory) provisionally bring it forward to Wed Feb 8th, 13 days from now, pending the need of a R4 replay?
Or is it too close anyway?

[Aldershot Rejects]

I can see some people not wanting to hold, with a possible run of:

Gw26 Blank
Gw27 Lpool A
Gw28 Blank
Gw29 WBA A
Gw30 Man City H

It's not so much the fixtures that are set, more the possibility of 2 blanks in 3

I've been looking at that and wondering whether to temporarily unload him.

[Ruth_NZ]

They could re-schedule for GW26 midweek and then postpone again if the slot is needed for a FA Cup replay.

Yeah, I had suggested/inquired earlier whether a "provisional" re-schedule was something to consider, or out of FA habits...
By the same rationale, couldn't they (in theory) provisionally bring it forward to Wed Feb 8th, 13 days from now, pending the need of a R4 replay?
Or is it too close anyway?

13 days is too close under normal circumstances. If we don't hear tomorrow (Friday) then that's pretty much out I think. The most likely outcome is that they will do nothing and wait. And then end up having to pay another fine to UEFA.

It's not so much the fixtures that are set, more the possibility of 2 blanks in 3

I've been looking at that and wondering whether to temporarily unload him.

Yep. Purchase price will make a difference here. I made a big mistake selling Sanchez back in GW13 when I thought he was an injury risk and he wasn't. Cost me 37 points in 2 weeks and 0.4m more to bring him back. But that could now help me because I bought at 11.5m. He'd be an easy sell with blanks GW26 & 28 (if that happens).

[Vsz]

They could re-schedule for GW26 midweek and then postpone again if the slot is needed for a FA Cup replay.

Yeah, I had suggested/inquired earlier whether a "provisional" re-schedule was something to consider, or out of FA habits...
By the same rationale, couldn't they (in theory) provisionally bring it forward to Wed Feb 8th, 13 days from now, pending the need of a R4 replay?
Or is it too close anyway?

13 days is too close under normal circumstances. If we don't hear tomorrow (Friday) then that's pretty much out I think. The most likely outcome is that they will do nothing and wait. And then end up having to pay another fine to UEFA.

It's not so much the fixtures that are set, more the possibility of 2 blanks in 3

I've been looking at that and wondering whether to temporarily unload him.

Yep. Purchase price will make a difference here. I made a big mistake selling Sanchez back in GW13 when I thought he was an injury risk and he wasn't. Cost me 37 points in 2 weeks and 0.4m more to bring him back. But that could now help me because I bought at 11.5m. He'd be an easy sell with blanks GW26 & 28 (if that happens).

I'm thinking I'll ditch Sanchez and Giroud after the Watford game then and probably get the former back in for the DGW's later in the season.

KDB and Lukaku on my radar.

[cesc408]

And now UTD have a blank GW26 (as most expected) and possibly a blank GW28. Do we expect people to jump off Ibra and go for Costa/Kane/Lukaku (whichever they don't have) ?

Can sense lots of 343 similar teams fast approaching

[KingMaalik]

bought Alexis at 10.9, can't and won't sell him...

[Aldershot Rejects]

And now UTD have a blank GW26 (as most expected) and possibly a blank GW28. Do we expect people to jump off Ibra and go for Costa/Kane/Lukaku (whichever they don't have) ?

Can sense lots of 343 similar teams fast approaching

I will probably keep one of Sanchez or Ibra and ditch the other.

[OIEIAO]

I will probably try and have max 3 blanking outfield players in week 26 (have 4 right now) and bench them all. Sanchez and Ibta have gone up 0.5 and 0.4 since I bought and I don't fancy re arranging everything to sell and re buy either, let alone both, if they still look like season keepers.

Week 28 could be a nightmare but may still try and struggle through.

[Mo Bot]

And now UTD have a blank GW26 (as most expected) and possibly a blank GW28. Do we expect people to jump off Ibra and go for Costa/Kane/Lukaku (whichever they don't have) ?

Can sense lots of 343 similar teams fast approaching

I will probably keep one of Sanchez or Ibra and ditch the other.

A long way to go but I would ditch Sanchez over Ibra simply for the GW27 game. I'd much rather have Zlatan in my team for Bou (H) than not.

[Ruth_NZ]

Some games to look out for this weekend:

Palace v City - a Palace win would mean that City v Stoke can go ahead in GW28
Fulham v Hull - a Fulham win would mean Hull v Swansea is confirmed GW28

Accrington Stanley winning at Boro would also confirm a GW28 game but that seems rather unlikely.

The 5th round of the FA Cup is in GW25 and we really won't have a clear picture till then. This weekend doesn't look likely to help much.

[Mo Bot]

Indeed. I think the most useful part of the weekend will be the 5th round draw. At least we can make plans based on likely outcomes then.

[Stemania]

Looking at MoSe's spreadsheet again the big difference to last year looks to be that we won't have a blank between the two DGWs. The FA Cup semis are in GW34 so presumably any team getting that far will have their rearranged games midweek in GW34 (simply retaining their SGW) and then have a DGW37. So it looks to me on initial inspection that we should have a slightly smaller than usual DGW34, with the teams in the FA Cup semis having at only one DGW out of GW34/37 rather than the 2-blank-2 from last year.

I suspect that's going to make it much easier to navigate through the whole period compared to last year where we couldn't pick too many players in DGW34 that weren't playing in GW35.

It's looking pretty likely that Arsenal, Southampton and both Manchester teams are blank in both GWs 26 & 28 (unless they get their arse in gear and arrange some for GW26 midweek) - that's going to cause fun and games later as any of those four getting through to the semi-final could potentially have 3 games to rearrange and only 2 slots (midweeks GW34/37). Maybe we can half-expect a very small third DGW in, say GW33 like Everton-Palace again?

[Ruth_NZ]

The FA Cup semis are in GW34 so presumably any team getting that far will have their rearranged games midweek in GW34 (simply retaining their SGW) and then have a DGW37. So it looks to me on initial inspection that we should have a slightly smaller than usual DGW34, with the teams in the FA Cup semis having at only one DGW out of GW34/37 rather than the 2-blank-2 from last year. I suspect that's going to make it much easier to navigate through the whole period compared to last year where we couldn't pick too many players in DGW34 that weren't playing in GW35.

Yes. DGW34 will almost certainly involve less teams than it did last season. It could conceivably be as few as 6 or 8 (as I referred to earlier in the thread). Meaning more commonality of DGW teams and possibly also less need for a wildcard.

In all honesty there is only one decision that I think will make much difference around DGW time this season. And that will be who you triple-captain and when. That is likely to be where the biggest swings occur.

[scarletjim]

bought Alexis at 10.9, can't and won't sell him...

Slightly off topic I know, but I'm not sure that logic applies the same way this season as it might have in previous seasons. If you sold now, it would be at £11.4m. If Sanchez has a 5-GW period with 2 blanks, and no 'obvious captain' games, I can see him falling £0.5m or thereabouts during that period. If he falls only £0.4m, then you'd be losing just £0.1m when you buy him back. If he falls more, you'd actually be in profit when you buy him back. Then of course you have the opportunity cost of tying up £11.4m for 5 GWs that could be used elsewhere in your squad...

I'm not 100% sure yet, but I (having also bought at £10.9m) will almost certainly sell if he has those 2 blanks. Personally, having also Ibra, Bellarin, Redmond and Rodriguez (don't ask how I ended up with two Southampton mids...) it's going to be very much a case of damage-limitation during that period, and I may end up keeping someone through that period more due to lack of transfers than any genuine desire to keep them. But in the case of someone like Ibra, who has a great fixture in GW27, that might be a blessing in disguise. (And of course Ibra would be the one to keep, given the fixtures of all those players generally after GW25).

I'll be interested to see what happens in terms of price falls generally when big players have blanks, especially 2 blanks in 3 GWs - will we see falls of £0.5m / £0.6m maybe? Or will people perhaps all pile out at the same time leaving some falls taking place with 400%+ of the threshold? Anyway, important not to obsess too much about those - points are what determines our league positions after all, not money!

[blahblah]

opportunity cost

There's no such thing as a free lunch

[NYHammer]

The FA Cup semis are in GW34 so presumably any team getting that far will have their rearranged games midweek in GW34 (simply retaining their SGW) and then have a DGW37. So it looks to me on initial inspection that we should have a slightly smaller than usual DGW34, with the teams in the FA Cup semis having at only one DGW out of GW34/37 rather than the 2-blank-2 from last year. I suspect that's going to make it much easier to navigate through the whole period compared to last year where we couldn't pick too many players in DGW34 that weren't playing in GW35.

Yes. DGW34 will almost certainly involve less teams than it did last season. It could conceivably be as few as 6 or 8 (as I referred to earlier in the thread). Meaning more commonality of DGW teams and possibly also less need for a wildcard.

In all honesty there is only one decision that I think will make much difference around DGW time this season. And that will be who you triple-captain and when. That is likely to be where the biggest swings occur.

Triple captain is clearly important but isn't bench boost even bigger? 4 additional players for a double game week represents 8 additional chances to score..triple captain in a double game week is 2 (as you have a captain anyway).

[scarletjim]

The FA Cup semis are in GW34 so presumably any team getting that far will have their rearranged games midweek in GW34 (simply retaining their SGW) and then have a DGW37. So it looks to me on initial inspection that we should have a slightly smaller than usual DGW34, with the teams in the FA Cup semis having at only one DGW out of GW34/37 rather than the 2-blank-2 from last year. I suspect that's going to make it much easier to navigate through the whole period compared to last year where we couldn't pick too many players in DGW34 that weren't playing in GW35.

Yes. DGW34 will almost certainly involve less teams than it did last season. It could conceivably be as few as 6 or 8 (as I referred to earlier in the thread). Meaning more commonality of DGW teams and possibly also less need for a wildcard.

In all honesty there is only one decision that I think will make much difference around DGW time this season. And that will be who you triple-captain and when. That is likely to be where the biggest swings occur.

Triple captain is clearly important but isn't bench boost even bigger? 4 additional players for a double game week represents 8 additional chances to score..triple captain in a double game week is 2 (as you have a captain anyway).

Yes but the 2 are much bigger chances of scoring. Look how often your captain gets more points than all of your subs put together - quite often I'd imagine.

[Mo Bot]

DGWs might not be much of an issue if the Premier League teams keep getting thrashed in the FA Cup.

[Stemania]

Palace vs Spurs in GW28 looking surprisingly unendangered at HT.

[Stemania]

Well that was exciting. So i believe right now we have

GW28 Most Likely Blanks
Arsenal vs Leicester (Ars in, Lei tbd)
Chelsea vs Watford (Che in, Wat tbd)
Man City vs Stoke (Man in, Sto out)
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham (Pal out, Tot in)
Middlesbrough vs Sunderland (Mid in, Sun out)
Liverpool vs Burnley (Liv out, Bur in)

(No more info on those possible till after Gw25)

GW28 To Be Determined
Southampton vs Man United (Both tbd)
Hull vs Swansea (Hull tbd, Swa out)

GW28 On
Everton vs West Brom
Bournemouth vs West Ham

Edit: Arsenal game updated after Sat evening game

[Aldershot Rejects]

About the only thing that has changed after today is that Liverpool v Crystal Palace is definitely on for GW34.