Does rotation really happen over Christmas?

[Mav3rick]

I read this article today comparing the number of players used overall in the PL and by individual clubs over the Christmas period over the last two seasons:

https://mathematicallysafe.wordpress.co ... od-a-myth/

There are lots of interesting graphs so I encourage you to read the article in full, however the conclusion for those who don't want to read the whole thing was:

The main lesson I’m taking from this research is that the Christmas Rotation is not a phenomenon that is clearly evident. Rotation is present certainly. However, data suggests that over the past two seasons it hasn’t been any more or less pronounced than what would have been expected based on what has gone before in the season. From an FPL perspective, I would not disagree with the old truism; that having a deep squad of 14 or 15 regular starters is important because they are likely to be called on over the Christmas period as Premier League managers look to rotate. The second unspoken part to that approach that is highlighted here is that the risk of rotation is not greater just because Santa Claus is coming to town but is present throughout the season. How much importance you choose to place on the strength of your bench in FPL is a judgment call, but it is important to note that it does not need to be a seasonal concern. The prospect of your players being rotated is for life, not just for Christmas.

The schedule of the games this year is interesting with the three games this side of Christmas in a fairly normal midweek game pattern that I'd think most players can cope with. We then have the 3 games from Boxing day in fairly quick succession. Rotation obviously affects certain players more than others, but what do you think, is it worth worrying about at all?

[Gambit]

yes.....and no.

It's something I'm trying to take into account when making my transfers at the moment, that I want players who I think are safest over the next month, but I also realise that any player can be benched or rested.

I've had plenty of times sobbing over the Christmas period when I see the team sheets announced and a third of my team are not there!

It's true that it's not just Christmas it can happen, remember how many were burnt by Liverpool late last season, but from my experience of playing FPL, it's the Christmas period where I have most players missing, and as an example that's why I'm currently favouring Siggy (over players like Origi and Nacho), Swansea just do not have the depth to leave him out, while Pep and Klopp can (and will) rotate players around.

[Weisenwolf]

That all makes sense; as does ensuring your bench has better than 4 warmers on it.

[BobMem]

My concern this year would be Pep and Conte. Both are new to the league and the hectic schedule, and both have an embarrassment of riches, especially going forward.

[Ruth_NZ]

The schedule of the games this year is interesting with the three games this side of Christmas in a fairly normal midweek game pattern that I'd think most players can cope with. We then have the 3 games from Boxing day in fairly quick succession. Rotation obviously affects certain players more than others, but what do you think, is it worth worrying about at all?

Worrying, no. Planning for, yes. 13 teams have to play twice in 3 days (Saturday-Monday or Sunday-Tuesday). They include some top ones where the potential for rotation and the encouragement to do so by the way the specific games have fallen will be large. These include Arsenal, Liverpool, City and United. Southampton have the toughest schedule of all with 3 games in 5 days - Wednesday/Saturday/Monday. That was one reason I didn't want Austin and I actually think Austin owners have got out of jail with his injury, though they doubtless won't thank me for saying so.

On the other hand, Spurs, Swansea and (especially) Chelsea have very favourable timetables. Chelsea play Monday/Saturday/Wednesday. That's even easier than a normal week with a midweek game. No rotation pressure for them at all. Swansea have two good home games followed by an away game where they are more rested than their opponent. That was one of the key attractions of Sigurdsson for me when I brought him in a little while back.

Anyway, I did this as a detailed research 4 or 6 weeks ago. I could put the whole thing up if anyone's interested, it's quite long though.

[Stemania]

Interesting stuff Mav, that blog's been producing some good stuff recently.

I'd quite like to have seen a few more season's worth of data mind you, rather than just 2 years. I wonder if we should be taking into account that at the start of the season (and maybe even after the Jan transfer window) that managers might not be so decided on their best eleven and so naturally use more players? I wonder if that's a thing. I suppose that for the big teams it's also not hugely different from their usual European schedules and, conversely, for the smaller teams it's such a one off (and every game is so important) that it's worth the fatigue of keeping as close to the best eleven as possible.

It seems to me that the schedule is slightly kinder this year anyway, with every team avoiding the common 2 games in 3 days and some having a very gentle schedule - presumably a big factor in that is Boxing Day landing on a Monday, meaning that weekend can only fit one game rather than the usual games on the Saturday before and after Boxing Day.

[Sutter Kane]

Yes it's a gentle one this year. Hoping we don't get too much rotation. Players most likely to suffer will surely be ones that have European football and also played virtually every game so far in the league. Perhaps S'ton players, Leicester players, some Man U players, the Man C defence, Arsenal have one or two options at the back too although Wenger perhaps not the type to rotate.

[Ruth_NZ]

...with every team avoiding the common 2 games in 3 days and some having a very gentle schedule - presumably a big factor in that is Boxing Day landing on a Monday, meaning that weekend can only fit one game rather than the usual games on the Saturday before and after Boxing Day.

They aren't. Look at GW19/20. That's where the crush is.

[Stemania]

Ha - oops, didn't see that Hull Everton on the 30th was a Friday game. So

Hull, Everton, Spurs, Chelsea, Bournemouth, Swansea and Stoke

all avoid the 2 games in 3 days then - that still seems a pretty high number to me based on my previous recollections, and to me the run-up looks quite gentle for everyone perhaps due in part to the Boxing day thing.

[Aldershot Rejects]

As Ruth says GW19/20 is the pinch point. I'm not sure we'll see much rotation per se, especially as the following weekend is FAC3 when most of the rotation will happen. Having said there are some players that I would think unlikely to play both weeks - Carrick is one, Austin may have been another. Plus there are those coming back from injury (Bellerin for instance?) for whom 2 games in 3 days might be considered too much or those who are managing their fitness (I guess Carrick might fit in that category). Plus, players will pick up minor knocks in GW19 which they would normally recover from over a week but 3 or 4 days might be too quick to recover - of course, these are impossible to predict.

In summary, I guess I'm not worried about mass rotation although some players won't play all 3 games. I'll prepare by removing Amat and strengthening my bench/rotation options. Having said that now I have a bit more cash than I did at the beginning, it is harder to justify one spot in the team which is effectively unusable most (if not all) weeks (Amat has 12 points from 11 games and 5 of those came in GW1), so I would probably have made that move anyway!