https://mathematicallysafe.wordpress.co ... od-a-myth/
There are lots of interesting graphs so I encourage you to read the article in full, however the conclusion for those who don't want to read the whole thing was:
The schedule of the games this year is interesting with the three games this side of Christmas in a fairly normal midweek game pattern that I'd think most players can cope with. We then have the 3 games from Boxing day in fairly quick succession. Rotation obviously affects certain players more than others, but what do you think, is it worth worrying about at all?The main lesson I’m taking from this research is that the Christmas Rotation is not a phenomenon that is clearly evident. Rotation is present certainly. However, data suggests that over the past two seasons it hasn’t been any more or less pronounced than what would have been expected based on what has gone before in the season. From an FPL perspective, I would not disagree with the old truism; that having a deep squad of 14 or 15 regular starters is important because they are likely to be called on over the Christmas period as Premier League managers look to rotate. The second unspoken part to that approach that is highlighted here is that the risk of rotation is not greater just because Santa Claus is coming to town but is present throughout the season. How much importance you choose to place on the strength of your bench in FPL is a judgment call, but it is important to note that it does not need to be a seasonal concern. The prospect of your players being rotated is for life, not just for Christmas.