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(Is it time to get rid of) Zlatan Ibrahimovic

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Sutter Kane
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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by Sutter Kane »

Oh dear, my FPL button is there you know; before you decided I'm bitter about losing so much value..I haven't kept Ibra, just brought him in so not got a string of 2s no... :lol: Wish people would stop assuming and just take 20 seconds to check. Even just check the previous posts please!

I agree no player from united is a decent captain choice, bar Ibra last game. Man City, Arsenal, Everton, Chelsea have all struggled against lesser opposition recently. Only in the GW passed have they 'dispatched' as you put it. FPL is all about owning players at the right times, I believe I bought Ibra at the right time; I actually had a get-out clause if he bombed until Valencia had unexpected surgery; now I'm relying on Ibra vs Swans and Arsenal.

I'm not saying Ibra is long term value btw, never was.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by Mav3rick »

As a firm believer in underlying stats I have to say that I do understand SKs position in this. Jonty from FFS highlighted a GW or 2 ago that Ibra was returning underlying stats not seen since Suarez. That's something to take note of.

Man Utd have looked poor no doubt but their entire system seems setup around getting chances to Ibrahimovic, so it's kind of obvious that if he's not scoring then man utd will be out of form.

However, how many other players are getting the number of chances that he is? Even before Burnley he was out statting Aguero.

A single player around which virtually the entire rest of the team works seems absolutely ideal for FPL, it's the exact opposite of the Liverpool midfielder lottery, with the obvious caveat that Ibra hasn't returned any points from his many many many chances.

The question just becomes why has he not converted? Kane went through similar spells last year and people jumped on board just before he hit form. Now it might be that Ibra is just past it, that's certainly possible, but the numbers are huge and can't easily be dismissed as irrelevant just because his chances haven't gone in yet.

There are other reasons, primarily financial, to look elsewhere, but I can't say in all honesty that I would dismiss Ibra if say Aguero got injured.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by Sutter Kane »

Thank you Mav, you make my point more eloquently than me; If we'd have all picked a star XI for gameweek 10 he'd have been in there...surely???? That's all that matters, don't care about his uselessness vs Chelsea, etc. Fpl is short term in these circumstances.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by Weisenwolf »

Yep Cesc has nailed it.

If he cops a brace next week would I want him?

No because it would be a fluke; like James McArthur has managed twice this season for far less money.

Mav makes a great argument but it still ignores the simple fact that he can be sold and simply repurchased when his FPL prospects improve. Probably for less money.

I remains a poor move to keep him.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by bspittles »

ZeroRemorse wrote:Completely agree with Wolf

The only semi 'reason' to be keeping him now is because it does 'look' like he will score points occasionally and that's what most people are holding on to that still own him. They feel hard done by that he has't returned and think he could repay their faith since they missed out on the cashing out a few weeks ago, essentially they have nothing left to lose other than missing out on further points.
Isn't that the opposite argument to the one you used in the Life without Aguerro thread? A player with historic good form, playing for a big club but not scoring in the last few games?

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by ZeroRemorse »

bspittles wrote:
ZeroRemorse wrote:Completely agree with Wolf

The only semi 'reason' to be keeping him now is because it does 'look' like he will score points occasionally and that's what most people are holding on to that still own him. They feel hard done by that he has't returned and think he could repay their faith since they missed out on the cashing out a few weeks ago, essentially they have nothing left to lose other than missing out on further points.
Isn't that the opposite argument to the one you used in the Life without Aguerro thread? A player with historic good form, playing for a big club but not scoring in the last few games?
Different leagues, different age, different manager, different type of player, different attitudes.

Completely a different player. Ibra has played in a weak French league that Mario Balotelli is now the star of, I think Ibra is a class act, but entirely overrated in his past exploits in weaker leagues.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by blahblah »

He is looking like a has been, rather than a class player.....

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by Subsonic »

Is it time for a change of name to "Zlatan Kickabout?"

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by Weisenwolf »

blahblah wrote:He is looking like a has been, rather than a class player.....
Hmm he still has class, experience, physical presence & no small amount of fitness. But he came from a slower less competitive league, he's older and on the decline. He did well early doors, rested and a largely unknown player from an opposition perspective. He can now be studied within the EPL battlefield, he's subject to the grind of the EPL and it turns out his team are not top banana.

No surprise his FPL points have dropped off and although I expect he will have purple patches he's not the second best striker in the league but has the second biggest price tag.

Underlying stats ought to be considered of course if one has a mind to research them but they can't override the fact of what is actually happening.

Defoe has more points and is about £4M cheaper. Robson-Kanu & Barrow have better form and they cost £5M

He's a fine player but FPL towers overpriced him. Get rid of him guys & buy him back when he's got some form and costs less :D

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by Weisenwolf »

Subsonic wrote:Is it time for a change of name to "Zlatan Kickabout?"
I haven't read a CK reference for yonks; makes me feel nostalgic :lol:

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by blahblah »

Was a fine player. He looked good in first match, bought him and he was OK: now he looks like he is chasing who\what he used to be....

Where is Robson-Kanu nowadays :shock:

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by Mav3rick »

It really is too simplistic IMO to focus on only points scored and thereby write Ibra off as the equivalent of Barrow.

The types of chances he has had, particularly against Burnley but against other teams too, are not those of a written off player. Underlying stats, eye test - either way I don't understand how people look at his performances and think he's going to keep blanking.

The pendulum has just swung too far the other way, as after the first few weeks (when his underlying stats were awful by the way) people were falling over themselves to get him in and giving him all sorts of "must have" labels.

The truth is somewhere in the middle, but his stats say he is one of the most likely to score strikers in the league, and he looks likely to score in most of the games I've seen him in.

Worth 11.x? Maybe not in FPL with alternatives and a declining value (and I'm in nor hurry to acquire him), but honestly the write ups in this thread are a bit crazy. It's like people watch different games to me.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by TheoRiginal »

Mav3rick wrote: It's like people watch different games to me.
I don't think that many actually watch the games.

(And most of the supposed stats-based players don't get past the points scored.)

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by ZeroRemorse »

@Mav, he's obviously not going to keep blanking and I don't think anyone truly thinks he will never score again, but for his price he's not going to be as prolific as the other alternatives and so far he hasn't been. He's not mobile, he's not young and he's in a negative team regardless of those stats that everyone seems to be pulling from just 1 game at OT against Burnley who like to play without the ball.

Have a look at the Liverpool stats at Anfield, United had 6 touches in the box all match. How's that a good pick?

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by Mav3rick »

Obviously it's no good if his team are only getting 6 touches in the box, but Man Utd didn't even try to attack during that game. I was careful to state *before* the Burnley game in my mention of the underlying stats to avoid the accusation of misuse of an over the top performance. Clearly he's not going to get 12 shots every game, that would be crazy, but nor will Man Utd play like they did against Liverpool each game. Like any number, if you cherry pick stats you can prove anything.

We can say all day that he's declined, he's not as good as people say, that the French league flattered him, etc, etc but I don't really pay any attention to arguments like that because they aren't easily proved. Just like the theory of Pep not fancying Aguero or his strikers being historically ruined, it's just unprovable conjecture.

What you can look at, as objectively as possible, is a range of underlying stats before the Burnley game (so GWs 1-9 which is pretty much 25% of the season) which show Ibra with:

3rd most big chances
Most goal attempts
Most shots in the box
Most shots in the 6 yard box
Most shots on target
Most pen area touches

Those are not the numbers of a poor choice, they are better than Aguero (taking into account Aguero's ban). If you were given these numbers at the start of the season, you'd pick Ibra over everyone include Aguero.

But, most intriguing and most telling of all - worst conversion rate - just 9%. In fact, if you ignore the first 3 GWs where I felt he was overpeforming, and instead look at GWs 4-9 inclusive - his conversion rate is a ridiculous 3% from 33 shots (the most of any player in terms of shots or shots in the box over that period). A 3% conversion rate must be one the worst of any player I've ever seen, for anyone who plays 90 minutes and has a decent number of shots.

So why is the rate so low? Is he really rubbish now, can he just not finish? From watching games, it looks to me like he's been incredibly unlucky. It's not like he's blazing shots over the bar or is lacking a confident touch in front of goal, he just genuinely looks to have been stopped by incredible keeper performances. I don't know if that will continue, but if the stats stay like that (apart from the conversion rate obviously) then he will be a great pic. Even if he just ups his conversion rate toward Aguero (16%) - if he gets near Costa's (25%) then he would be scoring more than a goal a game.

That's what I meant earlier by stats that "can't easily be dismissed as irrelevant". He could be a reverse Toure as SK put it, but for the same reasons that I rejected players like Negredo I have to give consideration to Ibra. His price is prohibitive and in an FPL game he's not anywhere near a necessity (yet) but if he starts converting some of these chances, well, look out we're going to have big decisions to make.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by ZeroRemorse »

Those are really intriguing stats, but they mainly point to the fact he can no longer finish to the level he once upheld.

And I would rather have a "fixture proof" front 3, like Aguero, Costa or Lukaku, rather than Ibra who isn't going to be in the game at all in some matches - LFC/Chelsea.

I think because of this reason, the other 3 are going to outscore him considerably, Mourinho shuts up shop meaning United are highly unlikely to score more than +1 goal in a difficult fixture.

Until he starts to remember how to finish again, he's not a good pick. He will likely return to some form eventually and might become a viable pick again, but he has a long way to go to dislodge Lukaku and Costa who are still considerably cheaper, but he may come right during the Swansea game. Parallels have been drawn to Kane last season, but we all knew what to expect from Kane in the EPL and he had age on his side and not so much pressure, so he wasn't such a risk. Ibra and the way United are heading and playing don't cut it for me.

Depending if he's found a bit of form and is still a main feature in the United side, he should be a good pick post GW 16 and on, they have a decent run of fixtures. They have Everton, Arsenal, Spurs between now and GW 16, looks tough and he will be lucky to score in those games even with the stats Mav pointed out.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by TheoRiginal »

I think Ibra is really terrible and that everyone should transfer him out, including the dead team owners, who should specially log on to get rid of him, so he can drop even more dramatically to a price I can afford him, from which time he will probably break all FPL records for points scored, especially if Miki recovers his mojo and starts laying them on a plate for him.

For the moment, I think Mourinho should play Rashford up front in the PL and give the old man a rest - although he can keep his hand in by scoring against those slower, less aggressive Europa League sides with flappy-handed keepers.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by SuperGrover »

Mav3rick wrote:Obviously it's no good if his team are only getting 6 touches in the box, but Man Utd didn't even try to attack during that game. I was careful to state *before* the Burnley game in my mention of the underlying stats to avoid the accusation of misuse of an over the top performance. Clearly he's not going to get 12 shots every game, that would be crazy, but nor will Man Utd play like they did against Liverpool each game. Like any number, if you cherry pick stats you can prove anything.

We can say all day that he's declined, he's not as good as people say, that the French league flattered him, etc, etc but I don't really pay any attention to arguments like that because they aren't easily proved. Just like the theory of Pep not fancying Aguero or his strikers being historically ruined, it's just unprovable conjecture.

What you can look at, as objectively as possible, is a range of underlying stats before the Burnley game (so GWs 1-9 which is pretty much 25% of the season) which show Ibra with:

3rd most big chances
Most goal attempts
Most shots in the box
Most shots in the 6 yard box
Most shots on target
Most pen area touches

Those are not the numbers of a poor choice, they are better than Aguero (taking into account Aguero's ban). If you were given these numbers at the start of the season, you'd pick Ibra over everyone include Aguero.

But, most intriguing and most telling of all - worst conversion rate - just 9%. In fact, if you ignore the first 3 GWs where I felt he was overpeforming, and instead look at GWs 4-9 inclusive - his conversion rate is a ridiculous 3% from 33 shots (the most of any player in terms of shots or shots in the box over that period). A 3% conversion rate must be one the worst of any player I've ever seen, for anyone who plays 90 minutes and has a decent number of shots.

So why is the rate so low? Is he really rubbish now, can he just not finish? From watching games, it looks to me like he's been incredibly unlucky. It's not like he's blazing shots over the bar or is lacking a confident touch in front of goal, he just genuinely looks to have been stopped by incredible keeper performances. I don't know if that will continue, but if the stats stay like that (apart from the conversion rate obviously) then he will be a great pic. Even if he just ups his conversion rate toward Aguero (16%) - if he gets near Costa's (25%) then he would be scoring more than a goal a game.

That's what I meant earlier by stats that "can't easily be dismissed as irrelevant". He could be a reverse Toure as SK put it, but for the same reasons that I rejected players like Negredo I have to give consideration to Ibra. His price is prohibitive and in an FPL game he's not anywhere near a necessity (yet) but if he starts converting some of these chances, well, look out we're going to have big decisions to make.
Yep. I'd be shocked if I don't have Ibrah again within the next 10 weeks. At some point, United are going to start scoring at rates commensurate with their underlying numbers. By all statistical accounts they should have scored just a tick behind Chelsea (5th in the league) but in actuality they're just 9th. That won't last if they continue to get shots on target in as good of positions as they have thus far.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by Weisenwolf »

Why don't these stats lead to the conclusion that United & Ibra have a poor conversion rate and are going to need even more chances to improve?

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by Mav3rick »

Weisenwolf wrote:Why don't these stats lead to the conclusion that United & Ibra have a poor conversion rate and are going to need even more chances to improve?
Well, for me it's because:
Mav3rick wrote:A 3% conversion rate must be one the worst of any player I've ever seen, for anyone who plays 90 minutes and has a decent number of shots.
Is Ibrahimovic really the worst striker I've ever seen in the PL? Nope, far from it, so surely his conversion rate will improve to a more "expected" level when compared historically to league average conversion rates. On that basis, Ibra sits at the top (by some distance) of every expected goal model I see online.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by ZeroRemorse »

The stats also say United are terrible against difficult opposition and only perform well vs worse teams.

For his price you want better return and expect better return even in the tougher fixtures.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by matmutte »

Interesting debate. I can understand people not believing in Ibra and choosing Costa instead or a cheap striker to accomodate a stronger midfield. For all his great underlying stats, Ibra has been unlucky/clumsy/whatever but the sad reality is he's not been delivering.
Still, i've been carrying him all along and he's now come to a point where he entered the "differential" status (if you look at top 10k/top100k ownership levels ). That makes him quite fun and interesting to own as i believe he'll come good very soon.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by DonTanTilla »

Surely the question isn't whether they believe in him or what they think of him. It's just that he appears to be too expensive. If he was cheaper. Then he'd be a more viable option.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by ZeroRemorse »

matmutte wrote:Interesting debate. I can understand people not believing in Ibra and choosing Costa instead or a cheap striker to accomodate a stronger midfield. For all his great underlying stats, Ibra has been unlucky/clumsy/whatever but the sad reality is he's not been delivering.
Still, i've been carrying him all along and he's now come to a point where he entered the "differential" status (if you look at top 10k/top100k ownership levels ). That makes him quite fun and interesting to own as i believe he'll come good very soon.
The problem with that is, (Aguero) Costa and Lukaku are scoring at such a consistent rate and most people have 2 of those 3 and sometimes all 3. For him to become a viable "differential" he will have to start scoring more than them and more consistently, do you really think that's possible from here to GW 16.. or ever?

I concede after GW 16 he is a good pick fixture wise, but he's considerably more expensive than Costa and Lukaku who I can't see dropping their scoring rate too dramatically by GW 16. So for me overall Ibra is still not that great of a pick until one of those 3 are injured or suspended.. I actually feel sorry for the people who retained him for so long, they have been unlucky he didn't return something at least and they also lost a lot of funds.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by baganboy »

I am firmly in the underlying stats camp.
IMHO: FPL is not a game of picking up an unfashionable player before he has started raking in the points (and Zlatan is rather unfashionable to serious players at this moment). Instead, it is a game of knowing who has the underlying stats to consistently do well, and then once that player starts doing well, picking him up early, i.e. being an early bandwagon jumper. And through the underlying stats, also knowing who might not be a good bandwagon to jump to, even if he has performed well for a GW or two.
In support of that opinion, I have 9 years of playing this game (and 8 years bloody seriously). Some good performances in those 8 years, and some average to poor ones.

Picking up the unfashionable player before he has started raking in the points, is just a brownie points, look how smart I am thing. I am not interested in that. That does not get me a good rank.

In other words: I got rid of Zlatan when he started to not-score so many. no brainer, when compared to Lukaku who was ~ 3 million cheaper then. Will I get him in some point of time in the season? sure I could. I got Hazard (who is only slightly cheaper) back.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by CigaretteSmokingMan »

Watching him tonight, I'm not sure he'd be good value if he was free.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

In terms of the underlying stats, they are very flattering to Zlatan, the reason being that he is often the target of many balls in and takes shots, but this is happening even if he isn't in a good position to score. You might notice that Costa has fewer box touches, shots, and shots in the box; but in comparison Zlatan has a much higher proportion of blocked, headed, and off target shots.

Costa is running around dragging defenders of out position, and largely only being passed to or shooting when it's a great opportunity; Zlatan is having the ball played, or even pumped, into him at almost any opportunity.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by Sutter Kane »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:In terms of the underlying stats, they are very flattering to Zlatan, the reason being that he is often the target of many balls in and takes shots, but this is happening even if he isn't in a good position to score. You might notice that Costa has fewer box touches, shots, and shots in the box; but in comparison Zlatan has a much higher proportion of blocked, headed, and off target shots.

[/b]Costa is running around dragging defenders of out position, and largely only being passed to or shooting when it's a great opportunity; Zlatan is having the ball played, or even pumped, into him at almost any opportunity.
I think it's got to be way more than this; any balls to Zlatan in the box that are resulting in shots at goal are great chances for the Zlatan we've seen in past seasons, the keepers batting away his shots go some way to proving that. It could be his dynamism is escaping him with age and he is deteriorating badly or it's just that he is that Zlatan but is suffering confidence wise and running into very good keepers. I don't think there's many here who don't think over this season, with just the average-good chances he's had, a normal Zlatan would have quite a few more goals than he has and this conversation would be pretty irrelevant. Most forwards have had some nasty clouds of doubt over them this season...it's almost certain however you interpret the stats, as Mav says, it simply cannot continue this way (reverse Toure :| ). Any players around 10mn+, if not captained, are poor value so that is not the issue for me. It's not losing too much money on him and owning him when he does hit a brace and finds form/luck again which owners hope will be Sunday.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by TheoRiginal »

I thnk he has had a bit of a cold for the last month or so.

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Re: Is it time to get rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Post by SuperGrover »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:In terms of the underlying stats, they are very flattering to Zlatan, the reason being that he is often the target of many balls in and takes shots, but this is happening even if he isn't in a good position to score. You might notice that Costa has fewer box touches, shots, and shots in the box; but in comparison Zlatan has a much higher proportion of blocked, headed, and off target shots.

Costa is running around dragging defenders of out position, and largely only being passed to or shooting when it's a great opportunity; Zlatan is having the ball played, or even pumped, into him at almost any opportunity.
Except Ibrah also gets more big chances per 90 than Costa by a large amount (0.85 to 0.59), more shots on target (1.8 v 1.58), as well as more shots within the 6 yard box (3.60 v 2.47). If Costa were getting better shots, you'd expect him to be up or at least equal in those measures. He's not.

Ibrahimovic has been exceptionally unlucky. It will almost certainly not last if he continue to pour in high quality shots at the keeper at this rate.

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