Billy Bongo wrote:Everyone keeping him because of Newcastle last year
No, I don't think you can characterise it in terms like that. Aguero certainly has a lot of inertia but if you've looked at the stats then IMO you see good reason for that inertia.
Prior to GW12 and for the 4 GWs preceding it, Aguero was behind only bit part players Sturridge on shots per minute and only Strurridge, Stanislas and Lingard on shots per minute on target. Widen it out to the whole season and the results are very similar with only Ibra challenging Aguero as the "best" stats pick. He had a fairly poor week against Palace, which hasn't helped the picture, but I would still maintain that over the last 4/5 GWs the correct call in my judgement has been to hold onto Aguero and given the time again, I would hold again.
FP1990 wrote:Of the top 10 overall players, only 1 has aguero. Do we feel it's a matter of time before they get their comeuppance or is he really not the absolute essential anymore?
What the current top 10 have is merely a reflection of what has actually happened, not a reflection of what I think was a good decision at the time without the benefit of hindsight. I actually find it quite easy really to argue the point from a stats perspective that holding Aguero has to this point been the correct call, especially so as I've felt very comfortable captaining him 3 or 4 times over the last 5 or 6 weeks. The fact that it hasn't really worked out in this particular observable universe is not really a problem.
However, going forward the circumstances are shifting and Aguero isn't scheduled to be my captain in the next 5/6 weeks, plus there are at least some doubts about rotation with Pep over Christmas. I think it's fair to say that Pep is looking more likely to rotate Aguero (and other city players) than other managers look likely to rotate their star players. I think that it's probably just about still a mistake to sell Aguero this week, but next week Kane is going to be awfully tempting for many, and Costa too for any remaining non-owners such as myself.
I'm coming toward the idea that Aguero may be surplus to requirements for a period, but you have to carefully consider the best thing to do with savings and when/how you would want to get Aguero back. With his stats, and provided he gets the gametime, he's still going to be a highly effective captain, perhaps GW20 will be the ideal time to get him back I think I would certainly want a plan for that at the very least. That's a 6GW run without Aguero that looks like a reasonable risk, but it's not because Aguero has been disappointing up to now, it's because of what lies in front.
I won't keep Aguero just because he is Aguero, but nor will I sell him just because he's 13.1, there has to be justification for either position and I think the tide is perhaps turning against him for a short while. I'll be making sure that I have a plan to get him back though. It may well be a sensible play to pivot around the double Liverpool midfielder setup that many of us have as around that GW19/20 time Liverpool's lengthy good run of games stops and the sale of an 8.5ish mid would be a good way to fund Aguero coming back.
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