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Life without Aguero

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MoSe
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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by MoSe »

Stemania wrote: Unfortunately the CTC numbers for every player every day have been wiped for August due to some sort of reset/improvement.
The ownership numbers in CTC Players Detail were not there this season in the first place, they haven't been wiped out, they weren't being recorded at all, till I spotted and pointed that out, and our good men began recording them daily again.

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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by Finisher1 »

Stemania wrote: :lol:

Believe it or not I don't keep track of the NTI or NTO of every player who had a red flag removed all season and would have no idea of what their wildcard-transfer percentage was even if I did (you'd have to ask one of the price change site runners). If there were someone breaking the existing rule it would have been noticed.
To the bolded one: nope. My point is there has not been any player this season who has gone directly from red to blue and gathered significant number of NTI immediately after a flag removal. Hence, this rule has not been tested this season.

I believe the rule has remained similar for many seasons so it's probably a fair assumption to say it's probably similar this season too. But I'm just saying the rule has not been tested this season, so "someone breaking the existing rule" would NOT have been noticed.

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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by scarletjim »

What are people's latest views on this? I know he scored twice on his comeback, but surely that can't happen every weekend. Then I look at the captain poll for this weekend - with Ibra and Sanchez ahead of Aguero. Next I look at the next few GWs - would it be unreasonable to captain Sanchez for those too - home games against Swansea and Middlesbrough for Sanchez, versus Everton and Southampton for Aguero? Better games, good form, more points per goal, potential for CS points... Then I look at what you can do with your midfield if you swap Aguero for (for example) Defoe - that £6m goes a long way. Could easily have a long-term midfield something like Sanchez (or KdB), Hazard, Sterling, Walcott, Lallana. I'm not sure if I'd then have a bench-fodder 3rd striker, or 3 x £7.0-7.6m strikers (Defoe, Watford x 2, Negredo, Rondon, Benteke, Rashford) with a rotating midfield, but either way, it sounds feasible.

So, if you might not captain Aguero in say 50% of games, is he worth £13.0m (and rising, for those of us who don't have him yet)? And given that he only gets 4 per goal, is it wise to captain him in >50% of games when so many other midfielders are in good form?

Not sure what to do tonight now - was planning to use my 2 FTs to get Aguero in, but perhaps I don't want to. Though if I did decide to go with the idea above, I'd need to WC anyway, so I guess I might as well just get Aguero tonight anyway, and hopefully sell him in a few days for +£0.1m...

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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by Weisenwolf »

Long term I wouldn't want to be without him and he's going to get awfully expensive if he keeps netting. I'm pretty convinced that Aguero, Sanchez & KDB/Sterling are going to turn out to be required players. The Pool mids are enticing but which one? Lots of other big names like Payet to keep an eye on and some other cheaper options with promise like Benteke.

But those two, on form, are must have players unless you wait until they are too expensive IMHO

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The Libero
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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by The Libero »

I think scarletjim makes some good points, the biggest challenge to the argument though is:

"I know he scored twice on his comeback, but surely that can't happen every weekend"

Well this is Aguero: 5 goals in 4 games so far this season; 24 in 30 last season; 26 in 33 the season before; 17 in 23 the season before. That is phenomenal consistency over a long period of time AND there are signs that under Guardiola, City are going to have more goals in them than they did under Pellegrini. OK he won't score twice a week, but he will score around once a week, and if you don't have him, other people in your mini league will have him and captain him so your alternative options to Aguero already need 8-14 points a week just to break even.

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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by scarletjim »

Hmmm, it would certainly be a scary and risky route to take, I realise that. But when we talk about breaking even, it's not just a comparison between Aguero and the player taking his space in my team & the double points from my chosen captain each week, the comparison also needs to include the upgrades made elsewhere as a result of the saving. So it's pretty complicated for my simple brain to assess to be honest. Perhaps after some coffee and breakfast I'll have an honest attempt at doing some kind of analysis (not sure how credible it will be though, and almost certainly inferior to the similar analysis provided by many here before me). :)

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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by Hotstepper »

I'm Aguero all the way. For me if I look at where the downgrades/upgrades can be made, I don't see any of the 2-3m savings striker options (Lukaka, Vardy, Costa, Kane for now anyway) matching Aguero's consistency or explosive potential. And none of them the type that I'd look to be captain in the 70%+ of games that I would Aguero.

Whereas in midfield... Antonio instead of Payet, Coutinho/Lallana for Mane, Ozil (dare I say it perhaps even Walcott) for Sanchez, Sterling for KDB, all look to me like viable downgrade options. Add into that Son, Mata, Sigi at some point, and I can see some real value at the right time in that mid price range.

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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by scarletjim »

But a downgrade of say Aguero to Lukaku is a much bigger saving than most of those you mention above, with the exception of Sanchez, who for me is currently looking at least as essential as Aguero. Assuming we elect to have Sanchez, then he will often be a viable captain option, and once back to form, so will a (now relatively cheap) Hazard - so it's not the case that Aguero's 'replacement' up front has to take over the captaincy from him too, that can go to premium mids.

The problem for me is that, as I'm playing around with potential teams right now, I just can't make good use of the spare cash. For example, I just had a team where I replaced Aguero and Lallana / Antonio with Lukaku and Hazard (just as a general idea, not particularly for right now, given Chelsea's form). The latter pairing feels good doesn't it? And there is about £1.1m leftover. But I can't really see anywhere sensible to use it - partly as you say because of the firing mid-priced mids like Walcott, Sterling etc.

Personally (admittedly partly due to poor team value), I'm struggling to get a side with Aguero, Sanchez, Lukaku, and a reasonable midfield (Sterling, Walcott, Lallana etc), in a viable 343, unless I use someone like Capoue as my 4th mid, which I'm really not keen on... Of course Lukaku could be downgraded to Defoe / Benteke / plenty of others in that price range, thereby saving about £2m, but then given Lukaku's form, it almost feels more sensible to keep him, and do Aguero to one of those £7.0-7.5m mids, saving a whopping £5.5-6.0m, giving so many other options.

Meh, I'm going round in circles a bit now, and this is in danger of turning into an RMT, so perhaps I'll see how the day's games go and pick it up again later.

The niggling thing is, of course, that when you leave out Aguero, whether sensible on paper or not, you tend to get heavily punished... :/

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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by Mav3rick »

Aguero keeps missing pens this season, if (and it's a big if) he gets taken off them, is 13.0 suddenly a bit too expensive?

I mean take away what 7 goals a season, with a few bonus thrown in and that's 30 points off his overall tally.

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Do we really think Agüero will be off penalties?

Who will take them, De Bruyne? ;)

Seems unlikely to me.

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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by Finisher1 »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:Do we really think Agüero will be off penalties?

Who will take them, De Bruyne? ;)

Seems unlikely to me.
I think it's a possibility anyway because Aguero has been so poor at penalties recently. But you are right there is not any other player to stand out since Pep doesn't like Yaya.

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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by From4corners »

Finisher1 wrote:
Carlos Kickaball wrote:Do we really think Agüero will be off penalties?

Who will take them, De Bruyne? ;)

Seems unlikely to me.
I think it's a possibility anyway because Aguero has been so poor at penalties recently. But you are right there is not any other player to stand out since Pep doesn't like Yaya.
Kolarov. ;)

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Well, his recent record is as good as De Bruyne's. :lol:

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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by cesc408 »

I think he will be given 1 more. It's only so long you can keep giving it to somebody who has missed plenty.
Kolarov missed last season (and is rotated)
KDB missed yday
Yaya is out of favour
Don't see why somebody like Silva doesn't put himself forward, Similar to Cazorla so he could do the job.

Back on topic. For me penalties are a bonus so I would still keep him, as long as he is scoring!

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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

I'm keeping him for the moment, but I am beginning to wonder whether Costa/KDB (or Sanchez) is better than Aguero/8.5m midfielder. I may hold off captaining him every game as I have been doing though.

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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by Blue Fire »

Aguero's stats are still very good. But if he is off penalties, then going without him would not be as mad as it was in the previous seasons

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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by Mav3rick »

I agree. If not on pens (and I suspect he is still on them) I'd be happy enough captaining KDB in Citys good fixtures. Would just need to work out the best way to spend any savings.

Nothing doing yet though, and in fact even if he lost pens I probably would not transfer him out for the next 5/6 gameweeks due to citys good games and Costas relatively bad ones.

Just a situation to monitor, and not to assume that Aguero is an auto selection.

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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by Stemania »

If not on pens I'd seriously consider selling him too - or certainly be open to some hopping off for other strikers' good fixture runs. I'd be fairly confident he's still on pens though. :D

Still a player that evidently is a great goal threat even if on the bench like this week!

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Re: Life without Aguero

Post by SuperGrover »

cesc408 wrote:I think he will be given 1 more. It's only so long you can keep giving it to somebody who has missed plenty.
Kolarov missed last season (and is rotated)
KDB missed yday
Yaya is out of favour
Don't see why somebody like Silva doesn't put himself forward, Similar to Cazorla so he could do the job.

Back on topic. For me penalties are a bonus so I would still keep him, as long as he is scoring!
Silva missed his last non-shootout pen for City too. Granted it was 4 years ago but nonetheless.

And yes I had him in my lineup if you wonder how i can recall. GW1 after Aguero went off injured. Also missed a wide open net versus Southampton.

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What's wrong with KUN?

Post by JJ Zen »

Thought KUN is resting for EPL vs Barc, but Still didn't start ladt night. Out of form? Minor injury? Or just another sacrificer of PEP's tactic?
Any Citeh fan got any info?


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Re: What's wrong with KUN?

Post by Payet »

Guardiola left Kun on the bench for 2 games, and he got what he deserved.

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Re: What's wrong with KUN?

Post by ricardo68 »

Pep making sure Barcelona win through. A red card didn't help but then facing Messi Neymar Suarez etc they were always up against it. 4-0 shows the difference between the best of EPL and the best of Spain at the moment.

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Re: What's wrong with KUN?

Post by ArmChairPundit »

Pep just got a reality check huh

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Re: What's wrong with KUN?

Post by ricardo68 »

PS Pep played 4-6-0 no striker so no Kun.

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Re: What's wrong with KUN?

Post by ricardo68 »

ArmChairPundit wrote:Pep just got a reality check huh
100%

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Re: What's wrong with KUN?

Post by Weisenwolf »

Need a better keeper; someone like Joe Hart maybe?

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Ruth_NZ post about Aguero

Post by snakzz »

Anyone saw Ruth_NZ posts on FFS regarding Aguero?
I know there are many posts about Aguero, but found this post interesting. But is it just to throw fire on the "going without Aguero-discussion"?
We all know he have scored 11 goals in 10 games for Pep, so what more can he expect?

Is Guardiola in the process of ruining Aguero as a FPL asset?
There is a worrying subtext to the Aguero benchings in the last 2 City games. Worrying for FPL managers anyway. Aguero has been the go-to striker and captain in FPL ever since Suarez was at Liverpool. City were a team built around him. He was reliable and prolific. But it may be that's not good enough for Guardiola,

Pep has a track record of not especially liking out-and-out strikers. Eto'o scored 36 goals in 52 games in Guardiola's first season. Then he was sold amidst rumours of dissension between player and manager. Not that he was past his best, mind you. 2 seasons later he scored 37 goals in 53 games for Inter.

Zlatan was the replacement. He lasted one season (21 goals in 45 games) before insisting on leaving after calling Guardiola a "coward" and saying that Pep was filling "a Ferrari with diesel" and that "he should have bought a Fiat".
Next up was David Villa, considered one of the best strikers in the world at that time. This time, Guardiola had what he wanted, a more "malleable" player. He often played Villa wide with Messi in the "false #9" position. Worked great for Barcelona of course. But Villa's goal output suffered, down from 59 goals in 88 games in his last 2 seasons at Valencia to 48 goals in 119 games for Barça.
Same story when Guardiola went to Bayern. Mandzukic was the in-place striker and had been pivotal in Bayern's run to the treble (including CL) the season before Pep arrived. He lasted one season before leaving, saying "the playing style of Guardiola does not suit me".

Lewandowski next. Well, Lewandowski was 25 and just coming into his prime. He had been prolific at Dortmund (94 goals in 144 games over the previous 3 seasons). And actually Lewandowski is very complimentary about Guardiola, crediting Pep with making him a "more complete" player. But the detail of this is interesting. "I have become more confident in different positions, I move more intelligently without the ball, my defensive skills are sharper and I am much more effective helping others find space. He sometimes puts me on the left wing. It’ll never be my favourite position but I still do my job..."
And there's the rub. Lewandowski had 25 goals in 49 games in his first season at Bayern under Pep. A worse ratio than he had at Dortmund but playing for a much more dominant team. It did improve in his 2nd season but only back to the levels you would expect.

So, Aguero... Here are some of the things Guardiola has said about one of the best 3 strikers in the world: "He knows I want more and he can play better." "It’s not enough to receive the ball from his team mates, he has to help us in the first press and run a lot and help us with movement. When that happens, you are involved in the defensive tasks and the offensive".
And this is Kun's take on it: "I have to help to mark, to help defend and attack". "Pep is very picky about everything, the good thing is that I'm getting used to him and automatically going straight in to pressing the centre-backs." This is not to say that Aguero is unhappy, from what he has said so far he isn't. But that's not the point really.

So, I wouldn't be crass enough to think I know better than Guardiola. Not about players, not about how to improve them, not about what's best for City. Of course not. But I do know better than him about FPL (unless his pseudonym is Ville Ronka). And that's the only perspective I am looking from.

Guardiola changes players and he changes teams. We have been used to a City built around Aguero. His FPL returns have reflected that. Is that what Guardiola wants? I don't think so. He wants Aguero to do different things. He wants possession and control. This, after all, is the manager who said his dream was to have 100% of the possession, a team made up entirely of midfielders. “Midfielders are intelligent players who have to think about the team as a whole: they’re selfless players who understand the game better than anyone.” And that was the reason he gave for benching Aguero tonight. Purely tactical. Pep's way or the highway.

I don't know what the answer is. But one thing is for sure, the Aguero we are used to may not be the Aguero we are now going to get. Still the same talent, still the same finishing skill, that has gone nowhere. But expected to "run" and "press" and "defend" more. Capable of being benched when it suits his manager's tactical plan. At 13.1m in FPL, Aguero represents a huge investment. It's an investment that is beginning to have a small question mark over it for me

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Re: What's wrong with KUN?

Post by maradonash »

ricardo68 wrote:Pep making sure Barcelona win through. A red card didn't help but then facing Messi Neymar Suarez etc they were always up against it. 4-0 shows the difference between the best of EPL and the best of Spain at the moment.
I wouldn't disagree with the conclusion about the relative strength of the leagues...but City were well in that game for the 20 minutes period prior to Bravo taking leave of his senses.

I would be amazed if Kun was benched again at the weekend but it does show that Pep doesn't see him as being indispensable for the big games.
Seem to recall that he also benched Muller against Atleti in last year's Semi-Final 1st leg.
Last edited by maradonash on 20 Oct 2016, 09:24, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: What's wrong with KUN?

Post by theplayer »

I would be massively surprised if Aguero is benched this weekend. I think last weekend was because of the injury during the international break so he probably didn't want to risk him playing 90 minutes. And last night was Barcelona, the best team in the world, so it was clearly tactical. They won't be playing Barcelona in the Prem so nothing to worry about.

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Re: Ruth_NZ post about Aguero

Post by Finisher1 »

Usually when I see Ruth_NZ posting about Aguero it's only to argument a captaincy decision based on totally pointless and irrelevant historical statistics like "Aguero has scored X number of goals in away games at Burnley, so that's why he will/won't score again in away game at Burnley". These kind of posts do not make any sense.

But this post was a way better and had a way more value. I hope Ruth_NZ would still post here.

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