Getting Sanchez *and* the other big 3?

[Razorback]

The best I can come up with at the moment is:

Foster (Jakupovic)

Baines, Valencia, Williams, Stones, (Amat)

Sanchez, Hazard, Lamela, Fer (Capoue)

Aguero, Ibrahimovic (Diomande)

Played my wildcard last night but didn't opt for the above, I just didn't feel comfortable having only nine outfield players that I was truly happy with so brought in Ozil instead.

Later in the season when team value is higher I think it will be relatively easy to achieve a strong selection of players that incorporates all four but right now it's a little bit too limiting....

[cesc408]

I could get Cazorla for Coutinho and trouser .7 add that to the 1M ITB and upgrade Redmond with it.

2. Referees do not give Arsenal many penalties.

Yet Arsenal have had 2 penalties in 3 games

[CR9]

I could get Cazorla for Coutinho and trouser .7 add that to the 1M ITB and upgrade Redmond with it.

2. Referees do not give Arsenal many penalties.

Yet Arsenal have had 2 penalties in 3 games

Which might suggest it'll be plenty of games before they get two more.

[cesc408]

I could get Cazorla for Coutinho and trouser .7 add that to the 1M ITB and upgrade Redmond with it.

2. Referees do not give Arsenal many penalties.

Yet Arsenal have had 2 penalties in 3 games

Which might suggest it'll be plenty of games before they get two more.

Somebody says Arsenal don't get many penalties, and I mention they have had 2 in 3 games. For you to then say that is absolute nonsense. The way Arsenal play with pace out wide and the quickness of passing in and around the box it's easy to see why they can carry on getting plenty of spotkicks

[Mav3rick]

... Really good post...

I agree with most of your observations on the players and price brackets, although I never considered starting with 4 of the super premiums (I missed out Sanchez). On Mourinho, it could be one of those where he tightens things up in the second half of the season but is relatively attacking in the first part of the season

I know it was "only" Hull, but although they only scored one goal I thought they were pretty dangerous. The previous match (against Southampton) could potentially have been more about a poor Southampton side than a good Man Utd one though (I'd transferred Ibrahimovic in on the back of that match). In fact, nevermind the big 4, I guess I really still struggle to justify Ibrahimovic at all and I thought Costa was impressive enough yesterday to challenge him. It's just a shame that Costa appears to be the anti-bonus (and of course card magnet). I still have hope on Lukaku being a good replacement though, and the extra premium mid spot it opens a possibility of going to (perhaps) the likes of Ozil or Mikki over a Redmond/Bolsie.

[CR9]

I could get Cazorla for Coutinho and trouser .7 add that to the 1M ITB and upgrade Redmond with it.

2. Referees do not give Arsenal many penalties.

Yet Arsenal have had 2 penalties in 3 games

Which might suggest it'll be plenty of games before they get two more.

Somebody says Arsenal don't get many penalties, and I mention they have had 2 in 3 games. For you to then say that is absolute nonsense.

Don't be stupid. Go and Google "Law of Averages"

[LamebrainEddy]

Which might suggest it'll be plenty of games before they get two more.

Somebody says Arsenal don't get many penalties, and I mention they have had 2 in 3 games. For you to then say that is absolute nonsense.

Don't be stupid. Go and Google "Law of Averages"

The irony of this comment is not lost on me

[CR9]

Which might suggest it'll be plenty of games before they get two more.

Somebody says Arsenal don't get many penalties, and I mention they have had 2 in 3 games. For you to then say that is absolute nonsense.

Don't be stupid. Go and Google "Law of Averages"

The irony of this comment is not lost on me

Well done, you.

[scarletjim]

I could get Cazorla for Coutinho and trouser .7 add that to the 1M ITB and upgrade Redmond with it.

2. Referees do not give Arsenal many penalties.

Yet Arsenal have had 2 penalties in 3 games

Which might suggest it'll be plenty of games before they get two more.

Somebody says Arsenal don't get many penalties, and I mention they have had 2 in 3 games. For you to then say that is absolute nonsense.

Don't be stupid. Go and Google "Law of Averages"

This is hilarious. The 'Law of Averages' only applies to events taking place in the future. Imagine someone tossed a coin 10 times, and it was heads every time, yet the coin was proven to be normal, no cheating etc. What are the odds of a head on the 11th throw? Very likely because they've all been heads before? Very unlikely because it must be tails at some point? No, of course not, the odds are 50% for either, because the other events have already happened and are of no relevance. This is very basic probability methodology mate.

[CR9]

I could get Cazorla for Coutinho and trouser .7 add that to the 1M ITB and upgrade Redmond with it.

2. Referees do not give Arsenal many penalties.

Yet Arsenal have had 2 penalties in 3 games

Which might suggest it'll be plenty of games before they get two more.

Somebody says Arsenal don't get many penalties, and I mention they have had 2 in 3 games. For you to then say that is absolute nonsense.

Don't be stupid. Go and Google "Law of Averages"

This is hilarious. The 'Law of Averages' only applies to events taking place in the future.

Well, if you'd read my initial post correctly, you'd've realised that it referenced events taking place in the future.

[Hogmeister]

Love the way that CR9 keeps digging this particular hole deeper and deeper - don't let facts get in the way of a good argument, eh?

[blahblah]

Very likely vs very unlikely compromise at 50%, I can roll with that.

So for ten letters\emails that I invite Anjelina Jolie for a weekend of debauchery (with me, obviously) and she says no 10 times: I still have a fifty\fifty chance with the 11th?

[scarletjim]

I could get Cazorla for Coutinho and trouser .7 add that to the 1M ITB and upgrade Redmond with it.

2. Referees do not give Arsenal many penalties.

Yet Arsenal have had 2 penalties in 3 games

Which might suggest it'll be plenty of games before they get two more.

Somebody says Arsenal don't get many penalties, and I mention they have had 2 in 3 games. For you to then say that is absolute nonsense.

Don't be stupid. Go and Google "Law of Averages"

This is hilarious. The 'Law of Averages' only applies to events taking place in the future.

Well, if you'd read my initial post correctly, you'd've realised that it referenced events taking place in the future.

I did read your post, it says 'Which might suggest it'll be plenty of games before they get two more' - i.e. incorrectly referencing past events as relevant to a calculation of future probability based on the 'law of averages'. What on earth do they teach in schools these days?

[CR9]

What on earth do they teach in schools these days?

Clearly not the twisting of facts to provoke argument as they obviously did in your day.

I'm done with this and will not respond to you further.

[blahblah]

[scarletjim]

So for ten letters\emails that I invite Anjelina Jolie for a weekend of debauchery (with me, obviously) and she says no 10 times: I still have a fifty\fifty chance with the 11th?

Unfortunately no. The main difference being that you presumably never had a 50% chance in the first place. The initial odds were probably o.ooooooooo1%. Your persistence might have persuaded her a little bit, or it may have frightened her to the point of seeking legal action - but either way, your odds probably won't have moved far from their original o.ooooooooo1%. Sorry mate!

As a slight aside, there is a huge number of people who don't understand probability at all. Someone said to me the other week that you always have a 50% chance of winning the lottery, because either you win or you won't. So it seems lots of people confuse the number of outcomes with the probability of each actually occurring. Scary.

Anyway, having waded in here to have a laugh / register my astonishment / state the obvious correction, I feel I should add my two cents to the topic:

Aguero is pretty much always essential for me when fit.
Hazard is next for me, especially at that price. Key to everything Chelsea do going forward, and (crucially) on pens.
Ibra I've never considered essential, mainly due to the price - I've had Rooney for a lot less since the start, and he's done ok.
Sanchez is also expensive, and we don't yet know if he'll continue to play up front. Ozil has always served me well in the past, and is so much cheaper.

So personally I'll be looking to have Aguero, Hazard and Ozil, perhaps supplemented by Rooney when fixtures and form dictate.

PS Thanks to Baganboy for his excellent analysis.

[Mav3rick]

So for ten letters\emails that I invite Anjelina Jolie for a weekend of debauchery (with me, obviously) and she says no 10 times: I still have a fifty\fifty chance with the 11th?

Why on Earth are you sending letters? I don't even know what a stamp costs anymore but I suspect you'll run out of money long before she says yes

Your best bet is to send one letter (preferably containing a non-essential appendage to prove your commitment) explaining your intentions and then to rent some time from a compromised network of computers to DDoS all her favourite services and/or email her repeatedly until she gives in and says yes.

Of course that's not what I recommend you do, just strategising. A bit like getting in all four big hitters maybe?

[blahblah]

It appears that you have me and Ms Jolie as a better prospect than winning the Lottery?



Yep to Hazard, so Costa to Hazard and Barkley to Lukaku looks almost certain (90% )

I don't see the cheap striker firing yet to allow Ozil, as I doubt that I can afford Sanchez...

Imho, Zlata will outscore Rooney and allows a simple home rotating Capt with Kun.

[blahblah]

So for ten letters\emails that I invite Anjelina Jolie for a weekend of debauchery (with me, obviously) and she says no 10 times: I still have a fifty\fifty chance with the 11th?

Why on Earth are you sending letters? I don't even know what a stamp costs anymore

Your best bet is to send one letter (preferably containing a non-essential appendage to prove your commitment) explaining your intentions and then to rent some time from a compromised network of computers to DDoS all her favourite services and/or email her repeatedly until she gives in and says yes.

Of course that's not what I recommend you do, just strategising. A bit like getting in all four big hitters maybe?

She might collect stamps for Charity?

You seem a bit of an expert there. An email bombardment sounds like it might work, especially if it took down her internet at the same time?

[scarletjim]

It appears that you have me and Ms Jolie as a better prospect than winning the Lottery?

Good luck to you both, I'm sure you'll make a lovely couple.

Yep to Hazard, so Costa to Hazard and Barkley to Lukaku looks almost certain (90% )

My only issue with that is that yesterday I thought Barkley looked superb, and very unlucky not to get any FPL points. Meanwhile I thought Lukaku looked like he wasn't quite firing right, maybe just lacking sharpness after missing the start of the season.

Imho, Zlata will outscore Rooney and allows a simple home rotating Capt with Kun.

Yes I expect Ibra will outscore Rooney, but by enough points to make him worth so much more of our funds? I can see both sides of this one - I doubt it personally, but can understand why others disagree, particularly with the captaincy option. I've not been through long term fixtures yet, but if I could captain Aguero most weeks, then Hazard occasionally when MC have very tough games, then I could live without Ibra. However if there's a week when both Aguero and Hazard have really tough games, and Ibra an easy game, then I'd be hiding behind the sofa I expect...

EDIT: A question on Ibra captaincy - you suggest home / away with him and Aguero - so do you think they are pretty much even prospects then? Against teams of similar quality, I'd probbly rather have Aguero away than Ibra at home - but again, I can see why others disagree - I guess only time will tell whether or not Zlatan can score a similar number of goals this season to Aguero...

[blahblah]

Yep to similar points potential, well ish kinda thing. I reckon MU are going to stonk the League this season.....

It just makes life easy, having three definite bench players and an idiot guide to Captaincy.

The real problem with this idea (ie OP) is the next time Kun is injured, imho. But that could well be the time when I daisy chain Zlatan out - assuming he isn't hiting FPL points heights.

[TOPCATDUSS]

I had always planned to WC GW3 - and have put these 4 in my draft...

Having the top scoring player (imo) from United, City, Arsenal and Chelsea seems common sense to me... That way whichever of them blanks, I will still pick up points from the other 3...

That said - Ozil for Sanchez does provide a much more balanced squad - which I have come to learn is essential in this game to avoid unnecessary points hits over the season.

Teams as it stands are below - either way I think a strong team can be put together with either Ozil or Sanchez - depending on whether you see Sanchez as essential or not

Foster - Januk
Valencia - Stones - Byram - Evans- Amat
Sanchez - Hazard - Antonio - Bolasie - Fletcher
Kun - Ibra - Stuani

or

Foster - Januk
Valencia - Stones - Byram - Williams - Amat
Ozil - Hazard - Antonio - Bolasie - Fer
Kun - Ibra - Stuani

[gallus]

Actually I'm starting to think that 3 is already too many. When City and Liverpool mids start firing (and it looks like it's already happening) Kun+Ibra almost definitely won't be the way to go.

[CupidStunt000]

Sanchez is over priced. It's as simple as that imo

[baganboy]

^^ Not really. Alexis's upside potential is I think about 220 points. That's a 12M player. Full season downside would be ~ 180, which is a 10M player. I think 11M is about right.

If you say he is overpriced in comparison to other players, then you have to spell it out Who? Hazard? Yes. Ozil? Yes. De Bruyne? Yes. Capoue? Yes. Redmond? Yes. Aguero? No. Ibrahimovic? No. Kane? No.
But when you are talking big hitters, 'overpriced in comparison' is not the right comparison. At 13M, Aguero should be a 240-260 points a season player - and he has never hit more than 216 in a season. But I do not consider him overpriced still.

[Football Hero]

Sanchez is over priced. It's as simple as that imo

Is he though?

Sanchez has a ppg of 5.81. Aguero's ppg is 5.96 and Ozil's is 5.28.

Comparing him to Hazard, ignoring his 2015/16 season, he has a ppg of 5.91. Including the 2015/16 season he has a ppg of 4.61. Are Chelsea back to their best? Maybe, but they've had a fairly straightforward start so far, and they almost dropped points against Watford and West Ham, so they might not be involved in this title race once they've played a few more tougher games, that remains to be seen. I don't think they've been as convincing as the two Manchester clubs so far, so can we assume that they are back to the Chelsea of old just yet?

I think Sanchez is reasonably priced personally.

[Football Hero]

But when you are talking big hitters, 'overpriced in comparison' is not the right comparison. At 13M, Aguero should be a 240-260 points a season player - and he has never hit more than 216 in a season. But I do not consider him overpriced still.

Why don't you? He's priced at 13.1M but he's not really getting many more points per game than Sanchez, despite being on penalties.

[payetme]

Like I tell myself all the time when I don't have a player that does well or prior to not picking a couple of players that I feel will score well " You can't have everyone"

Thats how it is.

Sanchez is a great real life and fantasy player. Sanchez vs Ozil;Sanchez is the more explosive player with higher upside. Ozil is very consistent and can get you hauls as well. Sanchez will score more at the end of the season IMO , barring injuries of course. Ozil a good backup and may be even better value seeing how hes a lot cheaper. All depends when you get them in. Form is very Key. I've learned that from the last couple of seasons. Get in a player when you feel they will do well and also don't stick with a player when their past due, having false hope they will do well.

[baganboy]

But when you are talking big hitters, 'overpriced in comparison' is not the right comparison. At 13M, Aguero should be a 240-260 points a season player - and he has never hit more than 216 in a season. But I do not consider him overpriced still.

Why don't you? He's priced at 13.1M but he's not really getting many more points per game than Sanchez, despite being on penalties.

Because at that stratospheric price level, it's about a few other factors - for example
1. Reliability as a captain (Aguero is a complete boss in that respect in comparison to near about anyone else).
2. Aguero gets up to speed after an injury like a boss. So [[if Aguero is injured, chuck him out, and the moment he is fit, get him back]] is a fine strategy to adopt
3. Aguero will give you 2500 minutes and 210 points. (Projected upwards for a standardfare 3200 min striker, that is indeed 268 points. Kane, as a point of comparison is 210 in 3300 min)
4. And making mathematical sense of point 2 and 3 is that == playing Aguero for the 2500 mins + missing 290 mins (say) due to transfer shuffle, subs etc + Playing someone with a great fixture for 630 min (i.e. 7 games - and the striker gets Kane's average ppm say) = 210+0+40= 250 points. It's alright for a 13M striker.

[Football Hero]

But when you are talking big hitters, 'overpriced in comparison' is not the right comparison. At 13M, Aguero should be a 240-260 points a season player - and he has never hit more than 216 in a season. But I do not consider him overpriced still.

Why don't you? He's priced at 13.1M but he's not really getting many more points per game than Sanchez, despite being on penalties.

Because at that stratospheric price level, it's about a few other factors - for example
1. Reliability as a captain (Aguero is a complete boss in that respect in comparison to near about anyone else).
2. Aguero gets up to speed after an injury like a boss. So [[if Aguero is injured, chuck him out, and the moment he is fit, get him back]] is a fine strategy to adopt
3. Aguero will give you 2500 minutes and 210 points. (Projected upwards for a standardfare 3200 min striker, that is indeed 268 points. Kane, as a point of comparison is 210 in 3300 min)
4. And making mathematical sense of point 2 and 3 is that == playing Aguero for the 2500 mins + missing 290 mins (say) due to transfer shuffle, subs etc + Playing someone with a great fixture for 630 min (i.e. 7 games - and the striker gets Kane's average ppm say) = 210+0+40= 250 points. It's alright for a 13M striker.

Aguero can have bigger 'explosions' than the other players which is handy for captaincy. However the maths say that this has to be balanced out by plenty of 2 pointers if his ppg overall is not that much higher than Hazard and Sanchez. You'll be captaining plenty of 2 pointers from Aguero too. By not having him you'd have an extra 2.0 - 3.0 that you can spread around the rest of your team if you didn't have Aguero.

He's the best player, but when does that player's price get too much? Would you have Aguero if he cost 14.0?