Value Vs. Points

[DonTanTilla]

I've been having a bit of difficult time wrapping my head around the pros and cons of for example "taking a 4 point hit to remove a player due to drop in price"

I've heard some people advocating such a move, and others condemning it.

I can't quite figure out the best way to quantify it.

Based on the idea that an average season score is around 2200 lets say? (could be wrong here) that makes each million worth 22 points and each 0.1 worth 2.2 points (if its that simple)

But that is on the basis that 0.1 is yours for the whole season, earning 0.1 half way through the season averages a worth half as much (still talking in very general terms here)

You've also gotta factor in it can be argued that the values aren't their true values. In that you can't actually spend less than 4.0 on a defender so 20 million is gone already and in fact a player like Dann from Crystal Palace actually costs 1.5, and someone like Amat from Swansea costs nothing.

I'm sure this has been discussed before but I couldn't find a thread specifically this year.

This is turning into the ramblings of an idiot here but i hope you catch my drift to some extent.

Can anyone wade in here and enlighten me as I am not the smartest cookie!

Cheers guys.

[gallus]

stuff like "each 0.1 is worth 2 points" is a naive way of looking at things.

In the first few weeks of the season you want to get your team in a good shape going forward. That means getting rid of overpriced players and bringing in good players you have overlooked in preseason.

You are asking if you should take a hit to catch a price rise, and my answer is yes, but only if the following is true: a) you are not bringing in the player in question just to earn an 0.1, but because you think he's the best pick at his price, and b) you can't afford the team you want if the player in question rises by 0.1.

[Weisenwolf]

Looking at what a player costs above base is definitely a good starting point. 4M for keepers & defenders, 4.5M for everyone else. So 64 million gone already; you only get to spend 36 million. This means all those nice 4.5M defenders are only costing .5M while Bellerin is an expensive 2.5M. Up front Diomande is free while Aguero is an eye watering 8.5M, almost a quarter of your budget. It helps picking a team to understand that.

On the price rise and fall side it's useful to understand how it works.

First of all if you never sell a player it makes no direct difference to you whether the price rises or falls BUT it still matters indirectly to you because it affects what other players can buy the player for and what profit they might get if they sell.

You only get half of any price increase rounded down; so if you started with Kingley who is now 4.1M you will still only get 4M for him but if you have Ibra who is now 11.7M and sell him you will get 11.6M, a .1M profit. Price drops however you cop in full. Selling a player early in the game who has dropped by .1M can effectively leave your squad short by .5M rather that .1M because the price points are .5M apart. (i.e. week1 a 5M player drops to 4.9M and you sell him. You can only buy a 4.5M replacement so .4M is left idle in the bank)

Similarly even if a player rises by .2M and you sell for a .1M profit you often can't do anything with that profit because you often need .5M for the next tier up of player.

As the season goes on these price points blur but at the start they are important.

So a price drop is more harmful than a price rise is helpful and many players will take a hit to avoid one. Many others won't.

It also means your TV may be 101M but you won't get that if you sell them all because most of that extra 1M will be +0.1M which you lose or +0.2M or +0.3M for which you will only get +0.1M profit. It also means a TV of 100M is likely to be worth less than that if sold as it will often contain a mix of risers & fallers and the rises can only ever at best (An even price rise) realise half of that value increase

So my TV is currently 101.5M but if I sold the entire team I would only have 100.4M a mere .4M profit. Not even enough to upgrade a 4.5M to a 5M!

The maths also mean far more players drop than rise.

So don't do it to make money but to avoid losing it is my advice. Or if you prefer let up to 5 drops slide as .5M is the price point gap and so .1M often makes no more practical difference early in the game than .5M

Does that help?

[Weisenwolf]

I would second Gallus's advice too

[DonTanTilla]

All very helpful guys. Your responses are appreciated.

[Geri]

Looking at what a player costs above base is definitely a good starting point. 4M for keepers & defenders, 4.5M for everyone else. So 64 million gone already; you only get to spend 36 million. This means all those nice 4.5M defenders are only costing .5M while Bellerin is an expensive 2.5M. Up front Diomande is free while Aguero is an eye watering 8.5M, almost a quarter of your budget. It helps picking a team to understand that.

On the price rise and fall side it's useful to understand how it works.

First of all if you never sell a player it makes no direct difference to you whether the price rises or falls BUT it still matters indirectly to you because it affects what other players can buy the player for and what profit they might get if they sell.

You only get half of any price increase rounded down; so if you started with Kingley who is now 4.1M you will still only get 4M for him but if you have Ibra who is now 11.7M and sell him you will get 11.6M, a .1M profit. Price drops however you cop in full. Selling a player early in the game who has dropped by .1M can effectively leave your squad short by .5M rather that .1M because the price points are .5M apart. (i.e. week1 a 5M player drops to 4.9M and you sell him. You can only buy a 4.5M replacement so .4M is left idle in the bank)

Similarly even if a player rises by .2M and you sell for a .1M profit you often can't do anything with that profit because you often need .5M for the next tier up of player.

As the season goes on these price points blur but at the start they are important.

So a price drop is more harmful than a price rise is helpful and many players will take a hit to avoid one. Many others won't.

It also means your TV may be 101M but you won't get that if you sell them all because most of that extra 1M will be +0.1M which you lose or +0.2M or +0.3M for which you will only get +0.1M profit. It also means a TV of 100M is likely to be worth less than that if sold as it will often contain a mix of risers & fallers and the rises can only ever at best (An even price rise) realise half of that value increase

So my TV is currently 101.5M but if I sold the entire team I would only have 100.4M a mere .4M profit. Not even enough to upgrade a 4.5M to a 5M!

The maths also mean far more players drop than rise.

So don't do it to make money but to avoid losing it is my advice. Or if you prefer let up to 5 drops slide as .5M is the price point gap and so .1M often makes no more practical difference early in the game than .5M

Does that help?

Your early TV is huge. Congrats! I thought I was doing a pretty good start moneywise and I only have a 100.8 with 100.2 selling value.

[Weisenwolf]

Thanks

The tricky bit now is whether a few of them keep rising.

100.8 is pretty good and bare in mind I have used my WC so there is an element of risk in there.

[Football Hero]

More players dropping each night compared to the number of players rising sounds good on paper. However 90%+ of the droppers each night are all poor options that you will never want in your team as they are either not part of the first team, or too defensive/bad at getting points.

Most of the risers though, are players that you are potentially interested in as these players are delivering returns.

[Weisenwolf]

More players dropping each night compared to the number of players rising sounds good on paper. However 90%+ of the droppers each night are all poor options that you will never want in your team as they are either not part of the first team, or too defensive/bad at getting points.

Most of the risers though, are players that you are potentially interested in as these players are delivering returns.

In many cases it's amazing thousands of managers chose them in the first place; could be a lot of auto picks I suppose....

[Gagagogo]

In the start of the game you can earn some 0.1's by playing the wild card. For example i did transfer out Mané when he was still valued 9.0 and then transferred him in again when he was 8.9.

[Weisenwolf]

In the start of the game you can earn some 0.1's by playing the wild card. For example i did transfer out Mané when he was still valued 9.0 and then transferred him in again when he was 8.9.

He's still 8.9 so how did you make money out of that?

[Paulista]

In the start of the game you can earn some 0.1's by playing the wild card. For example i did transfer out Mané when he was still valued 9.0 and then transferred him in again when he was 8.9.

He's still 8.9 so how did you make money out of that?

He sold mané for 9.0, bought him back for 8.9, so he's left with 0.1 in his bank.