Price changes

[Stemania]

In Hazard's case though, because he is in effect shedding previous rises, I think (from reading the ctc thread) that the drop threshold is simply the NTI rise threshold (but in negative).

When a player’s value is higher than their season-beginning value, then in order for them to have a price decrease, instead of an NTO Threshold, they just need to hit the negative NTI Threshold instead, if this is smaller than the 10% of manager’s that own him.

Thanks for that, I think I'd forgotten too. I'm not sure everything in CTC is up to date but this one is still in force I think.

What is interesting is that it appears that unlike the normal dropping procedure in one gameweek (i.e, threshold is doubled if there's already been one drop in the week, and trebled if there's been two), it appears that the NTO threshold for a player who is losing value over season starting price is constant! So players that have risen appear to have the ability to shed that gain incredibly quickly in one gameweek as we are seeing with Hazard.

I had assumed that if a player was to fall multiple times in a week (when it was previously gained value and the threshold was now the minimum of 10% and the NTI target) that there would be a multiplier, but apparently not. So Ibra is in real danger of shedding all that gained value too, as would Costa be should he blank a couple of time. Definitely supports the old stock market sell high buy low adage when playing fpl.

The evidence would be that FPLS (who know's his business) has Hazard at 81.2% to a drop with a delta (number of NTOs required for next drop) at just 7848. So in total that means his threshold for his third drop of the week is roughly just a paltry 41.5k - roughly the same as the NTI threshold for a single rise (~46k) - I have no idea why it's not exact (perhaps it's even the threshold at the time he first rose? No idea if that was 41k). Now he's owned by roughly 1.1m still, and 10% of that is around 110k, so much higher. By contrast, if he were to be attempting a third rise of the week he'd be looking at needing about 3x45k=135k NTI after the 2nd rise.

[Football Hero]

The flags situation on Saturday was the same for Aguero and Livermore, they were both banned for potentially 0 or 1 PL games. Their situation is identical.

from this statement, and from the following ones, I hope you will never be involved in anything related to a company operative processes, or you'll make it fail

They come from two diffeent states, and the same game action would bring different game consequances

The same game action would bring about the same game consequences for each player.
[...]
I am only talking about the period 17/09/2016 - 21/09/2016 here. What happened prior to this period is completely irrelevant to anything.
[...]
You can't just assume that there is some hypothetical rationale that exists that explains all of this. If there is then what is it? Until one can be put forward, we can't just assume that there is a logical explanation.

You have clearly no idea what process, state or transition means.

I have put the rationale forwad, explained with abundance,
it's written black on white in the previuos posts.
If you fail or refuse to grab it, it's no use for me to repost the same things

You clearly are set on to pursue your own agenda, and not open to different concepts than your own.
Continuing to discuss that way won't be fruitful for anyone, so we might as well leave it as it is.

What I learned from the above exchange is this:

You say that when deciding about a football game mechanism, only the general football principles should be followed, regardless the different consequences the decision might bring on the game mechanism itself.
I say that the different game outcomes of a choice about how a game works should be at least taken into account, when deciding about the game mechanism.

These are two opposing points of view, both respectable.
Have a nice forum experience.

If there are 'mechanisms' that exist that somehow treat these bans differently, (despite the players having the same return date), then what are they? They obviously don't seem to make an awful lot of sense and so should be changed, but then again, you are purely speculating about the existence of these 'mechanisms'. Remember that if you can't explain something to a 5 year old, then you don't understand it yourself. All you're doing is demonstrating that you don't fully understand it if you can't explain it to me.

I don't believe that these mechanisms exist; it is people at FPL Towers that decide on a whim when to to flag players as injured, and what colour to flag that player to. I believe it is decided by human judgement, not a system, and here their human judgement has made a mistake.

[Multiple Scorgasms]

Bah, may have to take a -4 due to the quick price changes. If not, I can't make planed changes next gw.

Sent from my Hudl 2 using Tapatalk

[Stemania]

Very lengthy conversation about the merits of Darren Fletcher moved to it's own thread due to becoming far too long. Please try to stay close to the topic of each thread.

[payetme]

why are prices dropping so fast this week what

hazard already dropped 0.3?

[Lucky]

It is all related to people getting Agüero in again.

In GW3 loads of wildcards were played. To my knowledge transfers of a wildcard do not count for price changes to avoid manipulation. This week it is all "real" transfers leading to the price changes. This is why even the popular players, like Hazard, Ibra and Agüero see much faster moves.

[Finisher1]

So, in our series of "Totally Unexpected Price Drops", what do we have today? Well, ladies and gentlemen, let's see! What about Mesut Özil? He was about-74.0% (>2 days) in FFixx and delta 4,500 NTO in FPL Statistics. Could he have dropped last night? Is it actually possible? Yes it is and he did! Let's see again tomorrow in our series of "Totally Unexpected Price Drops"! To be continued.

...

I think I may need to adjust to the changed circumstances. It's probably better to leave team value mazimization strategy, because price changes are not predictable this season.

I'm not sure if there is any price change formula anumore? Maybe it's 50% formula and 50% randomness.

[Mav3rick]

The Ozil drop surprised me that's for sure. The prediction algorithms aren't perfect, though its clear that a lot of the drops that affect us have been shedding of previous rises.

That's probably the thing to look out for, negative trends and previous rises. The price change sites will update their algorithms once there's enough data.

[Finisher1]

The Ozil drop surprised me that's for sure. The prediction algorithms aren't perfect, though its clear that a lot of the drops that affect us have been shedding of previous rises.

Yes, I hope it's just a case of losing his previous rise, and he needs a lot, seriously a lot transfers out before his next drop (because then he would drop below his starting price).

Also it would be fair if he scored something in the next match. But nope, it's definitely bound to be a blank to punish even more those who were already unfairly punished by his drop

[Weisenwolf]

Ibra has dropped too, not surprising really, Maun U 'crisis' talk, Costa & Kak looking like better prospects, cheapest route back to Aguero etc.

[Pulpy]

Interesting how all this will affect current and future strategy then. I wildcarded a couple of weeks ago and left money in the bank for a straight Zlatan to Kun swap, believing this would gain me a transfer on others this week.

However I've ended up taking hits (ok one is purely my fault for a silly punt on a player I'm too embarrassed about to mention - let's just say I paid the erm, penalty for that one) to avoid drops and catch rises.

When wildcarding it is natural to bring in popular performing players that are rising. But this now leaves us exposed to rapid drops as soon as any of those players stop performing. Some are bound to flop so it appears difficult to avoid for say anyone wildcarding this week to avoid similar issues in two or three weeks time. Ok Kun's return will not heighten the issue at that time but similar drops of non performers are likely to still occur.

Could there be some strategy in this week's wildcarders (and future ones) not filling their team with all the popular picks to avoid or at least lesson this?

[gray821]

Haven't been following too closely this season...are we expecting Ibra to drop again before the weekend and Aguero to rise again?

[Mav3rick]

I reckon Ibra will probably drop again if these rules on circa 40k transfers out are needed to drop a previous riser. Not that it matters really, for all the collapse in Hazard's price it's only been a 0.1 loss in sale value.

Also Finisher1, I don't really see how the price drops are "unfairly punishing" anyone. We have a lot more information than the masses and use it to our advantage, but the price sites aren't 100% accurate and the downward trend on Ozil was there to be seen (not hugely so but he was one of the top 15/20 fastest droppers). Plus, I assume you haven't actually lost anything are just upset that the previous riser you brought in subsequently reversed his NTI pattern, but that's not unlucky as such, it's directly correlated to his performance.

[Finisher1]

Also Finisher1, I don't really see how the price drops are "unfairly punishing" anyone. We have a lot more information than the masses and use it to our advantage, but the price sites aren't 100% accurate and the downward trend on Ozil was there to be seen (not hugely so but he was one of the top 15/20 fastest droppers). Plus, I assume you haven't actually lost anything are just upset that the previous riser you brought in subsequently reversed his NTI pattern, but that's not unlucky as such, it's directly correlated to his performance.

I lost 0.1m actually because I bought him at 9.6m. That move was really out of my character, since I decided to pick him even though I knew he was a very risky pick in terms of team value maximization.

I'm just annoyed I didn't do my own thing chasing price changes like I did last season with a great success. I liked it, I was good at it.

This season I have adjusted my strategy and it hasn't worked - I think I have a right to be annoyed

[gray821]

Thanks for the responses. Was hoping to hold off on Ibra>Aguero this week having used my one free on Hazard>Firmino. Also got Ozil and slight problems with Shaw and Lukaku.

[TheoRiginal]

This season I have adjusted my strategy and it hasn't worked - I think I have a right to be annoyed with myself

FIFY!

[TheoRiginal]

The price change sites will update their algorithms once there's enough data.

But can the price change sites accurately factor in the actions of hordes of drunken casuals making rage-transfers at 1am after we seniors, having made rational decisions based on impeccable logic and analysis of regular trends have retired complacently to our beds at a civilised time to be up early to catch the first reductions of the morning at the local supermarket?

[eastcentral1]

The price change sites will update their algorithms once there's enough data.

Can you accurately factor in the actions of hordes drunken casuals making rage-transfers at 1am after we seniors, having made rational decisions based on impeccable logic and analysis of regular trends have retired complacently to our beds at a civilised time to be up early to catch the first reductions of the morning at the local supermarket?

We need to get a move on with triggering Article 50 and end this madness!

[TheoRiginal]

The price change sites will update their algorithms once there's enough data.

Can you accurately factor in the actions of hordes drunken casuals making rage-transfers at 1am after we seniors, having made rational decisions based on impeccable logic and analysis of regular trends have retired complacently to our beds at a civilised time to be up early to catch the first reductions of the morning at the local supermarket?

We need to get a move on with triggering Article 50 and end this madness!

Perhaps we need a separate thread to discuss what (British nationals only) squads we would select if Headmistress May sends all the foreigners home at Christmas.

[Weisenwolf]

Haven't been following too closely this season...are we expecting Ibra to drop again before the weekend and Aguero to rise again?

Ibra is only on about -1.6% but there may be an awful lot of 'real' transfers Friday night / Saturday morning.

Aguero's NTI so far this GW are currently around the 120,000 mark which means he is still about 950,000 (Or well under half) from his peak ownership. He is already at +35% so only about 30,000 more required (under 4% of current ownership) so even with the higher requirements for a second rise he will go up IMHO.

Ibra has lost about 80,000 this week leaving him a whopping 2,350,000 who still have him and he is only just over 40,000 for another drop. With question marks over his value in the last three weeks, a tough fixture this week (while Aguero has Bournemouth) and Man U's other current issues he will probably drop; possibly twice more IMHO.

It doesn't help Ibra that nine other strikers out performed him last weekend including the revitalised Lukaku & Vardy and the consistant and improving Costa, a 13 point haul first game from Slimani and a whole bunch of performing cheapie options to make puting Aguero in for Ibra affordable for all.

Ibra has dropped to -1.8% since I started this post

[Finisher1]

This season I have adjusted my strategy and it hasn't worked - I think I have a right to be annoyed with myself

FIFY!

Nope, I'm not going to admit my mistake. It's just a change of circumstances, unpredictability and bad luck

I'm just figuring out if I'm even able to turn this into "I told you so"

[Weisenwolf]

This season I have adjusted my strategy and it hasn't worked - I think I have a right to be annoyed with myself

FIFY!

Nope, I'm not going to admit my mistake. It's just a change of circumstances, unpredictability and bad luck

I'm just figuring out if I'm even able to turn this into "I told you so"

That's the spirit

I find, that if all else fails, a total refusal to look facts in the face will see us through

[baganboy]

Oh! I suddenly realised that if Firmino and Sanchez rise in price before Sterling and Antonio do; or if neither Sterling nor Antonio get another raise - all my best laid plans are basically gone.

Any chances of either not happening? How often does fantastFootballFix get their stuff right?
Haven't been here often --- what do the experts here suggest?

[tarkens]

none of them look like rising at the moment, maaaaybe Sanchez and Sterling who are over 40% but definitely not Firmino and Antonio

[abuhaneefah]

Oh! I suddenly realised that if Firmino and Sanchez rise in price before Sterling and Antonio do; or if neither Sterling nor Antonio get another raise - all my best laid plans are basically gone.

Any chances of either not happening? How often does fantastFootballFix get their stuff right?
Haven't been here often --- what do the experts here suggest?

In answer to the bold..currently:

Current prediction accuracy

Our price rise accuracy:98.0 %
Our price fall accuracy:86.0 %

[TheoRiginal]

This season I have adjusted my strategy and it hasn't worked - I think I have a right to be annoyed with myself

FIFY!

Nope, I'm not going to admit my mistake. It's just a change of circumstances, unpredictability and bad luck

I'm just figuring out if I'm even able to turn this into "I told you so"

That's the spirit

I find, that if all else fails, a total refusal to look facts in the face will see us through

I didn't realise you lived on a cruise ship on an Egyptian river, Finisher, but it seems like you are in de Nile.

[Stemania]

FPLS keeps a nice account of exactly which falls/drops it got wrong and by how much here:

http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/Home/PredictionErrors

Regarding Finisher1's Ozil drop - it shows FPLS had him at 12.4% off. As a general rule I'd say anyone within 10% is in severe danger, this wasn't hugely far off that.

[Weisenwolf]

Oh! I suddenly realised that if Firmino and Sanchez rise in price before Sterling and Antonio do; or if neither Sterling nor Antonio get another raise - all my best laid plans are basically gone.

Any chances of either not happening? How often does fantastFootballFix get their stuff right?
Haven't been here often --- what do the experts here suggest?

Sanchez in on around +45% but some of that was the suplus from his big 16 pointer against Watford, can't remember how much, 20 odd maybe?? And although he is popular here at jolly old FISO the mob seem to prefer KDB so Sanchez is only up around 23,000 and needs about another 26,000 is so MAY not rise.

Firmino is only circa +10% and he is currently dropping so you are safe there

Sterling & Antonio are rising but Antonio has risen once this week already and rose twice last week and although he got 7 points at the weekend that only puts him about 18th this week so those who chase last weeks points, which is many players, and those who got him on the back of the big haul are out of the market. I'm not sure whether he can make another rise.

Sterling on the other hand was joint 4th among the mids and is closer in relative terms so he may be more likely. However he too has already risen and rose 3 times previously. He also has some stiff opposition in the 8-9M bracket. Also many players who already have Aguero or KDB or both don't want a second/third citeh player and those pool boys look an awfully good alternative (I on the other hand have all three )

[Weisenwolf]

This season I have adjusted my strategy and it hasn't worked - I think I have a right to be annoyed with myself

FIFY!

Nope, I'm not going to admit my mistake. It's just a change of circumstances, unpredictability and bad luck

I'm just figuring out if I'm even able to turn this into "I told you so"

That's the spirit

I find, that if all else fails, a total refusal to look facts in the face will see us through

I didn't realise you lived on a cruise ship on an Egyptian river, Finisher, but it seems like you are in de Nile.

I do hope youo have a good day job Theo

[baganboy]

Sanchez in on around +45% but some of that was the suplus from his big 16 pointer against Watford, can't remember how much, 20 odd maybe?? And although he is popular here at jolly old FISO the mob seem to prefer KDB so Sanchez is only up around 23,000 and needs about another 26,000 is so MAY not rise.

Firmino is only circa +10% and he is currently dropping so you are safe there

Sterling & Antonio are rising but Antonio has risen once this week already and rose twice last week and although he got 7 points at the weekend that only puts him about 18th this week so those who chase last weeks points, which is many players, and those who got him on the back of the big haul are out of the market. I'm not sure whether he can make another rise.

Sterling on the other hand was joint 4th among the mids and is closer in relative terms so he may be more likely. However he too has already risen and rose 3 times previously. He also has some stiff opposition in the 8-9M bracket. Also many players who already have Aguero or KDB or both don't want a second/third citeh player and those pool boys look an awfully good alternative (I on the other hand have all three )

Fantastic! Thank you!
The best laid plans, eh?
I think the only other option I will be left with would be to go Baines out / Coleman in. I DON'T want to do this. Let's see....