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Weisenwolf
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Re: Price changes

Post by Weisenwolf »

And he didn't get any of goals despite being the target man.

I had both and I sold both at a profit because I expected they would not perform and they haven't.

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Re: Price changes

Post by Joccki_10 »

Weisenwolf wrote:And he didn't get any of goals despite being the target man.

I had both and I sold both at a profit because I expected they would not perform and they haven't.
I know what you mean, but you sold them before United-Leicester and Arsenal-Chelsea. That's a different perspective.

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Re: Price changes

Post by tommyk7 »

Hazard's form is a baffling 1.7.

Not surprising to see him dropping when you can either upgrade to Sanchez (form: 8.3) or gain some funds with Arnautovic, Wijnaldum, Pogba, Mata, Cazorla, Oezil, Iwobi, Payet, Siggy, Alli, Firmino, Townsend, Tadic, Mane, Milner, Antonio, Coutinho, Walcott, Chadli, Capoue, Lallana, Sterling, Son.....

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Re: Price changes

Post by blahblah »

It's not just Hazard, Chelsea look poor and it's not last season where people couldn't believe how bad they were and must improve.

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Re: Price changes

Post by The Libero »

Joccki_10 wrote:I don't understand why lots of managers are still getting rid of Hazard, I really don't. If you kept him for the Arsenal game, why do you want to transfer him out before the Hull game? Especially when also many of them will have to deal with De Bruyne's injury. I'm keeping Hazard and I sincerely hope he will punish the sellers this weekend. :)

The same actually applies to Zlatan, who I do not own. Keeping him for Leicester at home and selling him before Stoke at home, after United scoring four goals?! Come on...
Probably they are being driven by concerns over team value, and whilst they can see the logic you point out there, they fear that all the sheep selling will mean they will lose value by holding the likes of Hazard and Zlatan, whereas there are rises to be gained by jumping on Sanchez or various Liverpool mids. I'm guessing a lot of the Zlatan sales are driven by trying to get Aguero in by those who may have had both of them before Aguero's injury, but then capitalised on his absence by loading up on 1 or 2 more premium mids who they now don't want to ditch but need to find a way of getting Aguero back.

It's like that quote from JM Keynes on nothing being so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world, although that wasn't taking account of the possibility that Hazard and Zlatan might become nice differentials for those who hold now. Last year I benefited from Sanchez getting a hat-trick when I held a bit longer than everybody else in my mini-league.

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Price changes

Post by Joccki_10 »

What do we expect will happen (price-related / transferhits) when/if Hazard gets a haul this weekend?

EDIT: I'm not saying he does. :)

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Re: Price changes

Post by TheoRiginal »

The flock will bring him in then complain volubly that it isn't fair when he limps off after five minutes playing for Belgium with a muscle strain that will take three months to repair...

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Re: Price changes

Post by Weisenwolf »

Joccki_10 wrote:
Weisenwolf wrote:And he didn't get any of goals despite being the target man.

I had both and I sold both at a profit because I expected they would not perform and they haven't.
I know what you mean, but you sold them before United-Leicester and Arsenal-Chelsea. That's a different perspective.
True; I plan on dumping Costa next week too, tough fixtures & 1 yellow from a ban.

It would appear that whilst last year was a bit of a Jose created fluke they are, nonetheless, a shadow of the Chelsea of 14/15 and yet are priced as though they are.

Things may change but not overnight and if they do eventually I will happily re-purchase Hazard at a discount price later in the season 8-)

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Re: Price changes

Post by abuhaneefah »

How did Lamela drop last night ? He was nowhere near dropping when I looked at around 10pm!

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Re: Price changes

Post by MoSe »

abuhaneefah wrote:How did Lamela drop last night ? He was nowhere near dropping when I looked at around 10pm!
where did you look?

I had already sold him (to fund KDB to Alexis upgrade, on Monday 26th before Sanchez would rise) so I wasn't watching him closely anymore
but tbh he'd been constantly losing, and approaching the target
He maybe wasn't as close as others, but of course the rate of change, reported by FFFix by the hour, is important too

his daily ownership reported by CTC

http://crackthecode.fiso.co.uk/blog/fpl ... ry/?id=393

Date Price Status News Ownership
2016-09-28, 00:08 7.0 A 353,813
2016-09-27, 00:08 7.0 A 361,141
2016-09-26, 00:08 7.0 A 368,370
2016-09-25, 00:08 7.0 A 383,270
2016-09-24, 00:08 7.1 A 409,439
  • those prices are taken before Change Time, so it says he was 7.1 on the 24th, but he actually dropped to 7.0 on the same day couple hrs later

    http://crackthecode.fiso.co.uk/blog/price-changes/ (filter by "lame" ;) )

    Name Event Change Date
    Erik Lamela Price fall from 7.0 to 6.9 2016-09-28, 02:00
    Erik Lamela Price fall from 7.1 to 7.0 2016-09-24, 02:00
    Erik Lamela Price rise from 7.0 to 7.1 2016-08-20, 02:00
he lost 55,600 owners since last drop, and 7,300 owners yesterday, maybe the last sales got lumped all around midnight?

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Re: Price changes

Post by abuhaneefah »

I was looking on Ffix and he was at about 70% last night

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Re: Price changes

Post by MoSe »

yeah, I thought to recall something like that too, but IIRC on FPLS he was closer to -90%
maybe FFFix was misjudging the target, and indeed if you check now their "Recent Price Changes" tab, for Lamela's drop they say Accuracy 75.3 %

their best on yesterday's drops doesn't reach 88%

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Re: Price changes

Post by Weisenwolf »

De Bryne -94.4% :?

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Re: Price changes

Post by Weisenwolf »

-98.2%

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Re: Price changes

Post by Weisenwolf »

Ibrahimovic:

Dropped from £11.9M to £11.7M last week
Dropped to £11.5M this week.

ManUre have an easy game this week & Aguero has been locked so not everyone is jumping ship and he still has well over 50% ownership.

With Chelsea & Liverpool up next, Aguero's price lock coming off in about 20 minutes and all those Liverpool & Arsenal mids burning a hole in managers pockets......

Whilst it's unlikely he will drop again this GW, this GW is nearly over so how low will he go?

A haul will obviously stop the slide whilst a blank will put him in free fall but if he gets his more typical goal or assist what then? Clearly that will depend on the performance of others.

Big GW coming up for over half of all FPL managers then :D

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Re: Price changes

Post by Mav3rick »

I don't think he will drop much if at all. His ownership is huge, over 200k NTO for his next drop rather than the 45k or so prior to that. There will be a lot of inertia in his price due to dead teams.

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Re: Price changes

Post by blahblah »

Zlatan scores - chew chew :) :?

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Re: Price changes

Post by Stemania »

Yep, his sales seemed to have already bottomed out from a price drop perspective when he scored just now. Only 0.1% drop progress in the last hour according to FFFix compared to say the 1.2-1.5% of the other top sold strikers (Negredo, Iheanacho, Perez, though Negredo is still above starting price).

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Re: Price changes

Post by Weisenwolf »

Stemania wrote:Yep, his sales seemed to have already bottomed out from a price drop perspective when he scored just now. Only 0.1% drop progress in the last hour according to FFFix compared to say the 1.2-1.5% of the other top sold strikers (Negredo, Iheanacho, Perez, though Negredo is still above starting price).
The retardation of his decline is only because it would be a third decline in one GW. That disappears in less than 24 hours..

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Re: Price changes

Post by Mav3rick »

I'm not sure that's true. He was shedding previous rises before, now it's an approximate 10% of owners which is roughly 200k as reported by FPLS. That target shouldn't change after the deadline, and having scored he's even less likely to drop more owners now I expect.

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Re: RE: Re: Price changes

Post by Stemania »

I'm aware of the multiplier Weisen, but it's not a factor in the point i made. In single gameweek drop terms it's 0.3% per hour he's been on all evening, and 0.1% per hour in current terms. That's tiny compared to most other droppers (in terms of when their next fall might be.)

Of course Mav is spot on with the reasons for the rate drop, that it's now a much higher NTO required as it's not 'gained value'. I was careful to say 'bottomed out in price drop terms' not 'drop in number of sellers'. He's obviously still being sold, but the next drop looks a long time away, that was my point. (Perhaps my wording wasn't the best) :D

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Re: Price changes

Post by MoSe »

what I'm puzzled, it's that after two changes in GW, whichever the target method (previous rise or 10% owners) that value should be tripled, so it should look 3*10% = 600k...
the past lore tells that if above starting price the drop target is -Rise target (current? unclear, Mav & me think so)
it does not say that in such case the doubling or tripling for successive changes in gw is waived
currently FPLS estimated Rise Target is 44k
so gw 1st Drop Target from 11.7 to 11.6 should have been -44k, and gw 2nd Drop Target from 11.6 to 11.5 shoulda been -88k (while it looks like he had lost 60k...)
now the gw 3rd drop reverts to -Owners%, but the tripling should STILL apply, regardless the method has changed inbetween.... or doesn't it???

it's possible that latest estimates for the Fall % are not actually at 10%, and as I pointed out last season too, all 3 sites seem to handle the resets and multipliers differently... one might be right, but then the others have to be wrong, dunno which one of course

when looking at today's FPLS targets then, let's not forget that next change will occur AFTER this evening deadline, when multiple changes multipliers will be reset, so the figures might already take that into account

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Re: RE: Re: Price changes

Post by Weisenwolf »

Stemania wrote:I'm aware of the multiplier Weisen, but it's not a factor in the point i made. In single gameweek drop terms it's 0.3% per hour he's been on all evening, and 0.1% per hour in current terms. That's tiny compared to most other droppers (in terms of when their next fall might be.)

Of course Mav is spot on with the reasons for the rate drop, that it's now a much higher NTO required as it's not 'gained value'. I was careful to say 'bottomed out in price drop terms' not 'drop in number of sellers'. He's obviously still being sold, but the next drop looks a long time away, that was my point. (Perhaps my wording wasn't the best) :D
There is certainly a marked difference between the rate at which previous rises are shed and the rate at which drops from the base price occur at and he would certainly need a lot of NTO to drop again. That said he's lost more than 350k in the last two GW and his ownership is still more than 300k over where it started. A goal in the UEFA won't have done any harm but for players buying and selling on the basis of FPL 'form' or 'GW points' or whatever it won't make any difference. Be intersting to see what does take place particulalry if he does blank again.

I see KDB dropped and is 2/3 of the way towards another drop and Chez went up for a 2nd time. I expect Lallana and Coutinho may well get over the line by 7 this evening.

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Re: Price changes

Post by Stemania »

MoSe wrote: it's possible that latest estimates for the Fall % are not actually at 10%, and as I pointed out last season too, all 3 sites seem to handle the resets and multipliers differently... one might be right, but then the others have to be wrong, dunno which one of course
Yes, now you mention it I am a very skeptical about the drop multiplier existing at all anymore. We're pretty sure it's gone for drops that are shedding 'gained value' as the recent Hazard falls appear to have demonstrated, but I had for some reason still assumed it was still there for drops below starting price. However FPLS are at least running on the assumption that it's still 10% of ownership for drops below starting price but that there is no drop multiplier as far as I can see.

For example, the Ibra and Batshuayi 'delta' NTO targets for a drop are still at pretty much exactly 10% of ownership despite both having already dropped this GW. This suggest to me that FPLS, at least, no longer believe any drop multipliers exist.

Perhaps it's worth rewriting the old CTC price change descriptions somewhere new in the context of what we think we know now. Certainly it's worth writing down formally the relatively new (compared to when the CTC descriptions were written) changes to NTI/NTO resets on flag changes.

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Re: Price changes

Post by MoSe »

Stemania wrote:For example, the Ibra and Batshuayi 'delta' NTO targets for a drop are still at pretty much exactly 10% of ownership despite both having already dropped this GW. This suggest to me that FPLS, at least, no longer believe any drop multipliers exist.
if you had looked yesterday, I agree and that's indeed what puzzled me
MoSe wrote:when looking at today's FPLS targets then, let's not forget that next change will occur AFTER this evening deadline, when multiple changes multipliers will be reset, so the figures might already take that into account
but today's figure is relative to a target for a drop to occur tonite, that is AFTER this evening deadline, at which point any multidrop multiplier would've been reset anyway

we should check after a drop during the impending long break

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Re: Price changes

Post by TheoRiginal »

Aguero already due to rise tonight per fplstatistics. Icheanacho due to fall.

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Re: Price changes

Post by Weisenwolf »

Kak may rise too along with Milner & Rondon.

I get Kak as he's just scored again but Rondon has Sunderland followed by 4 seriously tough games and Milner, who I like as a player, has got his points on the back of a brace of penalties he's unlikely to get to repeat.

It's madness :shock:

Edit: no it isn't madness, its fantasy football: The sport of Kings in the greatest league on the planet, a league of infinite surprise. Drawn upon by an abstract fantasy game engine using an economic model driven by the jerk of a knee, optimistic and pessimistic assumptions of future performance, whim, bravado, bragging rights & beer ! Not so bad after all then :D

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Re: Price changes

Post by Weisenwolf »

So the only defensive riser was Williams.

In midfield Barry & Milner

In attack Aguero, Lukaku, Rondon & Slimanu.

A mass of droppers as usual; Leicester looking grim :lol:

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Re: Price changes

Post by hzeir »

I am trying to get my head around the price change concept. I started here and understood that for a price rise to occur for a player he should hit an NTI threshold. NTI threshold previously was roughly 10% of the total number of players (or that was the assumed bench mark before learning process starts for CTC).

On FPLS, I have noticed that the NTI threshold is set to 41691 for the first rise for any player who has not experienced any previous drops/rises. What got me confused is when looking into the numbers in CTC and FFF the numbers for the first rise was significantly higher for a lot of players (example: for Vertonghen the first rise was after 106K Net Transfers In, Milner (81K), Ben Gibson (102K), etc). The 100K was quite common for a lot of different players for the first rise, however second rises were somehow consistent with the 2xNTI threshold theory and inline with FPLS's initial threshold (usually between 80K-100K). I am aware that WC transfers are not taken into account for price changes but still if you check different samples even players who experience rises in the previous couple of weeks (assuming that less WC have been used to affect the effective transfers resulting in a rise).

Can you please confirm if I am doing my math right and if my understanding is in place with regards to initial price rises?

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Re: Price changes

Post by Mav3rick »

It depends by what you mean when you say that Vertonghen's first rise "took" 106NTI, but there are a few reasons why an overall ownership might not track with rises.

The prices only change once a day, as I'm sure you are aware, and player's prices don't rise immediately that the threshold is breached, they rise on the morning following that threshold being breached. So it's very possible, normal in fact, for NTIs to be wasted, particularly if a player is close to a rise on a Friday or Saturday (but doesn't quite make it) which renders most of the busy Friday/Saturday transfers "wasted".

As you rightly say, wildcard transfers don't count either.

Events like the clearing of a yellow flag will reset the NTI count, effectively wiping out any transfers made that had previously counted toward a price rise, this can work both ways with previous transfers out (and hence a lower ownership) being written off before the next rise which could then look to be "too early".

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