Stemania wrote: 1st rise in a week - need T net transfers in
2nd rise in a week - need 2T further net transfers in
3rd rise in a week - need 3T further net transfers in
where T is some fixed threshold of (according to FPLS) about 22k at this point in the season. (This threshold T is believed to alter throughout the season to take into account factors such as the number of active teams remaining I think.)
Stemania wrote: 1st drop in a week if price over starting price - need T net transfers out
2nd drop in a week if price over starting price - need T further net transfers out
3rd drop in a week if price over starting price - need T further net transfers out
So, significantly there appear to be no multipliers at all for dropping players any more (thanks Troy Deeney for providing a key example). Though again, perhaps this has actually been the case for a few years now - I'm not entirely certain on that, and in view of the following I think it may have been (since the dramatic price drops for flagged players can be partially explained in another way):Stemania wrote: 1st drop in a week if price equal to or below starting price - need roughly 10% of ownership in net transfers out
2nd drop in a week if price equal to or below starting price - need roughly 10% of ownership in further net transfers out
3rd drop in a week if price equal to or below starting price - need roughly 10% of ownership in further net transfers out
Most significant of all - further digging appears to contravene an age old flagging multiplier rule. It used to be the case in the old days that all flags altered the price change thresholds for players to some degree, but according to the FPLS numbers it appears the new belief is that
(Walcott, Evans, Coutinho, Pedro are key examples here)'New' flag multiplying rules wrote:Yellow flags do not alter the price change thresholds in any way
Orange flags do not alter the price change thresholds in any way
Red flags roughly double every net transfer target
This is very important and I believe could well be a major reason for all these harsh drops we're seeing. In the old days it was believed that a yellow flag multiplied all targets by about 1.25, and reds by around 2.5. It used to be that a popular player with a flag of any colour had fairly decent protection from the the mechanism - but it now appears that any player yellow flagged (say Coutinho at the time Mav was talking about) has no protection whatsoever and hence popular ones can drop like a stone. Plus those players red flagged look to have weaker protection than they did a few years back.
Again, I couldn't say with 100% certainty that this is new this season (it may just here a couple of years but that say last year the landscape just didn't lend itself to strongly exhibit these side effects), but I had a fun half an hour or so this morning nonetheless.
*Caveat to above rules: The mechanism is (so far as I understand it) believed to be slightly different for players with very low ownership, say below 1%.
Alli because Alli now looks better and allowed me Alonso 