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Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

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Beerfuelledman
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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by Beerfuelledman »

Beerfuelledman wrote:The accepted wisdom in playing this game is to not trust "Carlos Kickaball" until he has proven himself. I often read statements like "How can Zlatan be a Carlos Kickaball" and the answer is - because he is. He is new to the Premier league. No one is rendering any questions over his previous pedigree; his mazy goal run for Ajax is still one of my favourite ever goals and he is quite possibly the 3rd greatest player of his generation (*Messi * Ronaldo). But we didnt know when the 34yr old from the French leagues came if he would cut it here; so many (Shevchenko, Veron, Deco, Kezman, Aquilani, Crespo, Van Der Meyde, Rebrov, Santa Cruz, Alfonso Alves, Mitroglou, Steve Marlet, Tomas Brolin, Francis Jeffers, Bosko Balaban, Stephane Guivarc'h) to name but a 'few' have failed. We've had our Zola's, our Klinnsmanns but they tend to be the exception rather than the rule.
Kevlar wrote:Ah but Santa Cruz when he played for City not Blackburn...
I stand by my point :wink:

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by ctibbits »

gallus wrote: It's kind of sad, 24.5 for two dead positions is a bit too much. There's not much room for finding exciting differentials.
Yes but it wont last. The only concern now is how long will people keep the faith in him when he falters as the stats show he undoubtedly will. Those that have the courage to jump off the ship early will be rewarded.

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by Vid »

gallus wrote: It's kind of sad, 24.5 for two dead positions is a bit too much. There's not much room for finding exciting differentials.
24.7 and rising ....

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by Notned »

I'm going without for now, as I have no way of getting him in for free. Risky game to go without, but hoping for some nice ground to be made up if any of the lower premiums which will be blocked for most hit form at any point. This is of course assuming Zlatan slows down at some point, which admittedly doesn't look likely right now!

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by Gambit »

ctibbits wrote:
gallus wrote: It's kind of sad, 24.5 for two dead positions is a bit too much. There's not much room for finding exciting differentials.
Yes but it wont last. The only concern now is how long will people keep the faith in him when he falters as the stats show he undoubtedly will. Those that have the courage to jump off the ship early will be rewarded.
what stats show that he will undoubtedly falter?

for me, in a very strong United team with no CL football (I don't expect him to play in the EL), on penalties, taking some of the free kicks, I can't see what evidence points to him faltering (unless I am missing something obvious)

will he score or get a haul every week, no of course not, even Aguero blanks over the course of the season, but if he plays every week, and fitness permitting he will, then I expect him to score 20+ goals, throw in assists and bonus and I see him being close to the 200 point mark.

If United had midweek CL games then I would be wary of him playing 3 games in a week etc, but for just the PL I think he is physically more than capable.

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by SFC_Fan »

Can't go without him. Have him Aguero and Hazard as my three premiums at the moment.

I think it will be a case of swapping between premiums all season as you can be sure Sanchez, Kane, De Bruyne and Ozil will all be on fire at som point.

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Gambit wrote:
ctibbits wrote:
gallus wrote: It's kind of sad, 24.5 for two dead positions is a bit too much. There's not much room for finding exciting differentials.
Yes but it wont last. The only concern now is how long will people keep the faith in him when he falters as the stats show he undoubtedly will. Those that have the courage to jump off the ship early will be rewarded.
what stats show that he will undoubtedly falter?
In 2 games, where he played almost the entirety of both, Zlatan had:

8 penalty area touches
5 shots (3 in the box with 1 of them a header, and 4 on target)
And has 3 goals.

He has 75% on target shot conversion, and a goal for every 2.667 touches in the box. :shock:

I don't know if they mean he will undoubtedly falter but shots in the box and penalty area touches are very low.

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by eastcentral1 »

It feels like we're playing a mini game here, with a wild card just around the corner. And, for now, with Zlatan and Man Utd flying, and the premium mids struggling, it seems a good idea to bring him in.

Whether it makes sense to keep Zlatan on the WC in a few weeks will not only depend upon whether he can keep it up, but what kind of midfield structure emerges.

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by Gambit »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:
Gambit wrote:
ctibbits wrote:
gallus wrote: It's kind of sad, 24.5 for two dead positions is a bit too much. There's not much room for finding exciting differentials.
Yes but it wont last. The only concern now is how long will people keep the faith in him when he falters as the stats show he undoubtedly will. Those that have the courage to jump off the ship early will be rewarded.
what stats show that he will undoubtedly falter?
In 2 games, where he played almost the entirety of both, Zlatan had:

8 penalty area touches
5 shots (3 in the box with 1 of them a header, and 4 on target)
And has 3 goals.

He has 75% on target shot conversion, and a goal for every 2.667 touches in the box. :shock:

I don't know if they mean he will undoubtedly falter but shots in the box and penalty area touches are very low.
fair enough, but I'd expect them to increase as Pogba and Mkhitaryan exert their influence and United become stronger. And he's such a good player that I don't think he needs a huge amount of touches to make a difference (score points). I'm expecting United to win far more than they lose and as long as Ibra is the one sticking the ball in the net (or playing the final pass) then it doesn't matter if he's touching the ball 8 times or 80.

Do people think he's going to finish the season on 9 goals or something? if he plays every week he's going to score 20, regardless of how many touches he has.

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by ctibbits »

Gambit wrote:
Carlos Kickaball wrote:
Gambit wrote:
ctibbits wrote:
gallus wrote: It's kind of sad, 24.5 for two dead positions is a bit too much. There's not much room for finding exciting differentials.
Yes but it wont last. The only concern now is how long will people keep the faith in him when he falters as the stats show he undoubtedly will. Those that have the courage to jump off the ship early will be rewarded.
what stats show that he will undoubtedly falter?
In 2 games, where he played almost the entirety of both, Zlatan had:

8 penalty area touches
5 shots (3 in the box with 1 of them a header, and 4 on target)
And has 3 goals.

He has 75% on target shot conversion, and a goal for every 2.667 touches in the box. :shock:

I don't know if they mean he will undoubtedly falter but shots in the box and penalty area touches are very low.
fair enough, but I'd expect them to increase as Pogba and Mkhitaryan exert their influence and United become stronger. And he's such a good player that I don't think he needs a huge amount of touches to make a difference (score points). I'm expecting United to win far more than they lose and as long as Ibra is the one sticking the ball in the net (or playing the final pass) then it doesn't matter if he's touching the ball 8 times or 80.

Do people think he's going to finish the season on 9 goals or something? if he plays every week he's going to score 20, regardless of how many touches he has.
Yes as CK has pointed out those are the stats I am alluding to. His touches and chances are just far too low for someone expected to keep up this level of points production. "undoubtedly fail" is relative eof course but for 11.5 million if he scores less for the season than Kane, Vardy, Costa, Sturridge or any other premium striker priced less than it is a failure in my opinion. Based on what chances he has had created for him thus far I would expect him to score much less than those I just listed.

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by Gambit »

ctibbits wrote:
Gambit wrote:
Carlos Kickaball wrote:
Gambit wrote:
ctibbits wrote:
gallus wrote: It's kind of sad, 24.5 for two dead positions is a bit too much. There's not much room for finding exciting differentials.
Yes but it wont last. The only concern now is how long will people keep the faith in him when he falters as the stats show he undoubtedly will. Those that have the courage to jump off the ship early will be rewarded.
what stats show that he will undoubtedly falter?
In 2 games, where he played almost the entirety of both, Zlatan had:

8 penalty area touches
5 shots (3 in the box with 1 of them a header, and 4 on target)
And has 3 goals.

He has 75% on target shot conversion, and a goal for every 2.667 touches in the box. :shock:

I don't know if they mean he will undoubtedly falter but shots in the box and penalty area touches are very low.
fair enough, but I'd expect them to increase as Pogba and Mkhitaryan exert their influence and United become stronger. And he's such a good player that I don't think he needs a huge amount of touches to make a difference (score points). I'm expecting United to win far more than they lose and as long as Ibra is the one sticking the ball in the net (or playing the final pass) then it doesn't matter if he's touching the ball 8 times or 80.

Do people think he's going to finish the season on 9 goals or something? if he plays every week he's going to score 20, regardless of how many touches he has.
Yes as CK has pointed out those are the stats I am alluding to. His touches and chances are just far too low for someone expected to keep up this level of points production. "undoubtedly fail" is relative eof course but for 11.5 million if he scores less for the season than Kane, Vardy, Costa, Sturridge or any other premium striker priced less than it is a failure in my opinion. Based on what chances he has had created for him thus far I would expect him to score much less than those I just listed.
I will have you a little friendly cyber bet (as in no money changes hands :) ) that IF Ibra stays fit and remains first choice he will score more goals than all the players you have listed with the possible exception of Harry Kane.

Just out of interest, if Ibra plays the majority of the league games how many goals do you think he will score?

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by DragonSwag »

Ok Ill do the math

Last season - 38 goals in 31 apps

This season:
new team, warming up with new teammates (-10%)
one year older and slower (-20%), but with more experiance and wisdom (+5%)
better league (-10%)
better teammates (+5%)
worse team relative to league (-5%)
Sole forward (+5%)

By my calculations he will score 26-27 goals this season. Cheers

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by Sutter Kane »

Better league, -30%...?? Sorry the French league is way below our lot. Can't defend for shit. They should stick to what they know, adding too much garlic to already nice food.

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by The Libero »

Beerfuelledman wrote: The accepted wisdom in playing this game is to not trust "Carlos Kickaball" until he has proven himself. I often read statements like "How can Zlatan be a Carlos Kickaball" and the answer is - because he is. He is new to the Premier league. No one is rendering any questions over his previous pedigree; his mazy goal run for Ajax is still one of my favourite ever goals and he is quite possibly the 3rd greatest player of his generation (*Messi * Ronaldo). But we didnt know when the 34yr old from the French leagues came if he would cut it here; so many (Shevchenko, Veron, Deco, Kezman, Aquilani, Crespo, Van Der Meyde, Rebrov, Santa Cruz, Alfonso Alves, Mitroglou, Steve Marlet, Tomas Brolin, Francis Jeffers, Bosko Balaban, Stephane Guivarc'h) to name but a 'few' have failed. We've had our Zola's, our Klinnsmanns but they tend to be the exception rather than the rule.
The key thing there is "he is quite possibly the 3rd greatest player of his generation".

Of those players on your list, only Shevchenko could come close to satisfying that description. The others were players who had good records abroad that didn't translate over here but they weren't in that elite class...Zola and Klinsmann were more in the elite class, as was Bergkamp, and they are a better parallel to Zlatan.

Now I do agree with the general point that there is risk, but a key factor with Zlatan is he has moved about multiple times before, to big clubs, with a lot of pressure of big fees around him, and he has always delivered. He isn't someone that struggles to adapt to new environments. Also he produces outputs even when he isn't playing well - sometimes he is a sublime dominant player with loads of deft touches all game bringing players in to play, sometimes he is a bit scrappy and anonymous but even in those games he is a good bet to pop up with a header or lash a ball in to the net unexpectedly...these are the factors that made my mind up. He's proven at being able to adapt to new teams and leagues and even if it takes him a while to properly settle in he has a fair chance of keeping his goal/assist record ticking over.

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by DragonSwag »

I just have to say its the first time i see Bosko Balaban in the same sentance as Shevchenko and Veron

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by Ironfist »

DragonSwag wrote:Ok Ill do the math

Last season - 38 goals in 31 apps

This season:
new team, warming up with new teammates (-10%)
one year older and slower (-20%), but with more experiance and wisdom (+5%)
better league (-10%)
better teammates (+5%)
worse team relative to league (-5%)
Sole forward (+5%)

By my calculations he will score 26-27 goals this season. Cheers
I bet you acted as Dungeon Master at least once... :wink:

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by Beerfuelledman »

The point is about not trusting foreign players until they have proven they can perform in the BPL, not that all foreign players have the same level of ability :roll:

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by ctibbits »

Gambit wrote:
Just out of interest, if Ibra plays the majority of the league games how many goals do you think he will score?

Interesting question. Based on a quick bit if research and they way United has looked over the first two matches, plus the community shield, lets give Zlatan three shots per game. Conversion rate of 20% with 38 games would be 22.8 goals. However there must be weight into this league not being the joke that it was in France, he is a year older etc. So I will give him 15 goals in open play for the season. Plus however many pens he gets and a couple of free kicks. I think if I was a bookie setting odds on the over under the number would be 22. I will most certainly take the under on that. and that is at a full 3,420 minutes which is highly unlikely.

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by gallus »

ctibbits wrote:
Gambit wrote:
Just out of interest, if Ibra plays the majority of the league games how many goals do you think he will score?

Interesting question. Based on a quick bit if research and they way United has looked over the first two matches, plus the community shield, lets give Zlatan three shots per game. Conversion rate of 20% with 38 games would be 22.8 goals. However there must be weight into this league not being the joke that it was in France, he is a year older etc. So I will give him 15 goals in open play for the season. Plus however many pens he gets and a couple of free kicks. I think if I was a bookie setting odds on the over under the number would be 22. I will most certainly take the under on that. and that is at a full 3,420 minutes which is highly unlikely.
so 19 goals in 36 games for a United lone striker on pens and free kicks and the best midfield in the league behind him? I'd take that.
Last edited by gallus on 23 Aug 2016, 14:09, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by First Sub Podcast »

ctibbits wrote:
Gambit wrote:
Just out of interest, if Ibra plays the majority of the league games how many goals do you think he will score?

Interesting question. Based on a quick bit if research and they way United has looked over the first two matches, plus the community shield, lets give Zlatan three shots per game. Conversion rate of 20% with 38 games would be 22.8 goals. However there must be weight into this league not being the joke that it was in France, he is a year older etc. So I will give him 15 goals in open play for the season. Plus however many pens he gets and a couple of free kicks. I think if I was a bookie setting odds on the over under the number would be 22. I will most certainly take the under on that. and that is at a full 3,420 minutes which is highly unlikely.
The number is in fact 18.5 with BetVictor offering evens for overs.

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by HungryHungrySuarez »

I'd have a tenner on over 22 tbh, but that's as much based on how i think he will be fed by the players around him, his lack of european involvement, and his early performances for Utd. If they get 6 Pens this season, which isn't that improbable, He'd only have to get another 14 from his remaining 36 fixtures to hit 22, and i have him down as at least a 1-in-2 player for Utd.

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by HungryHungrySuarez »

The Toon Man wrote:
The number is in fact 18.5 with BetVictor offering evens for overs.

i'm all over that :P

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by Weisenwolf »

He's about to rise to 11.7M

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by ctibbits »

gallus wrote: so 19 goals in 36 games for a United lone striker on pens and free kicks and the best midfield in the league behind him? I'd take that.
:shock: :shock: :shock: I can only assume this is a joke right? Always hard to tell who is being serious on here and who is not. Even if you were the most die hard UTD supporter you surely wouldn't actually believe this...I hope... :?

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by CptPugwash »

ctibbits wrote:
gallus wrote: so 19 goals in 36 games for a United lone striker on pens and free kicks and the best midfield in the league behind him? I'd take that.
:shock: :shock: :shock: I can only assume this is a joke right? Always hard to tell who is being serious on here and who is not. Even if you were the most die hard UTD supporter you surely wouldn't actually believe this...I hope... :?
I think Man u will win the league this year, but it's not based on being the best attacking midfield. There is no way Man U trumps Ozil, Sanchez and AN other or KDB, Silva and AN other.

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by Sutter Kane »

There seems to be small disagreement of Ibra's playing time over this season. I think without European involvement for a while, likely being taken off when games are won and his reputed fitness, I'm not sure this 34-35 year old will have too many issues with 80-85 minutes a week and one or two sub appearances in cups/Europa. I'm not sure also, that we'll see any performance deterioration due to his age until late on in the season anyway.

Another thing that I haven't seen mentioned (apologies if it has) is his disciplinary record. It's not great - 9 red cards in his career and a yellow around every 5 games. This makes me think he'll need at least 20 goals, 10 assists to justify his price tag. Perhaps it depends on how many pens Man U get from the refs 'new' interpretation of the rules!

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by matmutte »

eastcentral1 wrote:It feels like we're playing a mini game here, with a wild card just around the corner. And, for now, with Zlatan and Man Utd flying, and the premium mids struggling, it seems a good idea to bring him in.

Whether it makes sense to keep Zlatan on the WC in a few weeks will not only depend upon whether he can keep it up, but what kind of midfield structure emerges.
Spot on IMO. Once the premium mids wake up the dynamics will change and you'll have to offload one of Zlatan or Aguero to have a competitive team.
Also regarding Zlatan stats, yes not too many touches in the box but the guy is deadly and does not need much to score.
I did not select him from the start cause i thought 11.5 is too much with no pks but considering he has them and Kane is kind of misfiring the switch was easy to do.
Right now very risky to go without him considering the ownership rate.

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by Weisenwolf »

There's a fair chance one of Aggy & Ibra will pick up a knock; then it'll be which way people jump.,

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by Gambit »

matmutte wrote:
eastcentral1 wrote:It feels like we're playing a mini game here, with a wild card just around the corner. And, for now, with Zlatan and Man Utd flying, and the premium mids struggling, it seems a good idea to bring him in.

Whether it makes sense to keep Zlatan on the WC in a few weeks will not only depend upon whether he can keep it up, but what kind of midfield structure emerges.
Spot on IMO. Once the premium mids wake up the dynamics will change and you'll have to offload one of Zlatan or Aguero to have a competitive team.
Also regarding Zlatan stats, yes not too many touches in the box but the guy is deadly and does not need much to score.
I did not select him from the start cause i thought 11.5 is too much with no pks but considering he has them and Kane is kind of misfiring the switch was easy to do.
Right now very risky to go without him considering the ownership rate.
will the premium mids wake up? we kept hearing last year how certain players/teams would fire up but it never happened.

the two midfielders everybody wanted/had last year were Mahrez and Payet, neither was a premium midfielder, while Hazard and KDB were disappointing for most of the season.

As long as there are mid range midfielders performing well and a decent 3rd striker (and there usually always is) I don't see any reason why people will have to dump one of Ibra/Augero, not only that but many teams I have seen currently have Ibra/Aguero and also at least one premium midfielder already, so I would say it's more than possible to have the two main strikers and a decent midfield.

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Re: Ibrahimovic - 11.5 - worth it?

Post by Le Red »

It's worth mentioning there's a possibility that Ibra's form at home will better Aguero's form away, which would make Ibra a solid captain option, adding up to his value.
That said, I have the armband glued on Aguero for the time being.

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